U.S. JOLTS: Job Openings & Hiring Rates Ease

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the total job openings rate slipped to 4.4% during August from an unrevised 4.5% in July. It remained below the 4.8% record reached in January. The job openings rate is the job openings level as a percent of total employment plus the job openings level. The ability to find workers to fill openings also fell as the hiring rate eased to 3.8%. It has been moving sideways since early last year and remained lower than the April peak of 4.0%. The hiring rate has been below the openings rate since mid-2014. Employers are still reluctant to let people go. The layoff & discharge rate held steady m/m at 1.2%, remaining near the record low. Individuals remain ready to find new work. The quits rate eased m/m to 2.3%, but remained near the record high of 2.4%.

The private-sector job openings rate declined m/m to 4.7%. The rate has increased from 4.5% since early last year. In professional & business services, the rate held m/m at 5.4% and was below January's 6.5%. In leisure & hospitality, the rate of 5.1% was lower than December's high of 6.2%. In education & health services, the rate held at 5.0%, up from 2.6% in 2010. In trade, transportation & utilities, the rate ticked up to 4.5%. The openings rate rose to 4.8% in the construction sector but remained below the record 5.5% reached in April. In manufacturing, the rate declined to 3.6%. The government sector job openings rate was stable m/m at 3.6%, but remained well above the 2009 low of 1.2%.

Job availability fell m/m. The level of job openings declined 1.7% (-4.0% y/y) and has been declining steadily since January's high. It was at the lowest level since March of last year. Private-sector openings fell 4.4% y/y while government sector job openings held fairly steady y/y.

Hiring activity also weakened. The private-sector hiring rate declined to 4.2%, down from July's expansion high of 4.4%. The rate in leisure & hospitality eased m/m to 6.8%. In professional & business services, the hiring rate declined sharply to 5.1%, the lowest level since early-2017. It remained below the June 2017 high of 6.1%. The construction sector's hiring rate improved m/m to 5.6%, but remained below the high of 6.6% in December 2016. The hiring rate in trade, transportation & utilities fell to 4.2%. In education & health services, the rate declined to 2.8% after surging to 3.1% in July. In manufacturing, the hiring rate held steady at 2.6%, well below the July 2018 high of 3.1%. The hiring rate in government edged up to 1.7%.

Total hiring fell 3.3% (-0.8% y/y) and reversed July's increase. Hiring in the private sector eased 0.6% y/y while government sector hiring declined 3.3% y/y.

Individuals remained ready to find new work. The overall job separations rate eased to 3.7%, just below the expansion high. The private sector separations rate eased slightly from the cycle high to 4.1%. The separations rate in government held steady at 1.5%.

The total level of separations rose 0.7% y/y, the same as in the private sector. The increase reflected a 1.1% y/y gain in professional & business services separations. In educational and health services, separations climbed 1.4% y/y, but separations in trade, transportation & utilities eased 1.7% y/y. Separations in leisure & hospitality rose 3.6% y/y. The construction sector saw an 18.6% y/y rise in separations. Separations in manufacturing declined 8.6% y/y while separations in the government sector rose 0.6% y/y, reflecting a strong m/m increase in August.

Confidence in finding work remains high. The level of quits rose 1.5% y/y to 3.526 million in August. The quits rate eased m/m to 2.3%, but was sharply higher versus 1.3% at the beginning of the expansion. The private-sector quits rate eased to 2.6%, but has increased from 1.4% since the fall of 2009. The government sector quits rate of 0.8% was double that at the beginning of the economic expansion.

The level of layoffs declined 1.2% y/y. In the private sector, layoffs eased 0.4% y/y and the layoff rate remained near the record low at 1.2%, down from the 2009 high of 2.2%. Layoffs declined 13.0% y/y in the government sector and the layoff rate was steady at 0.4%.

The Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) dates to December 2000 and the figures are available in Haver's USECON database.

The minutes to the latest FOMC meeting can be found here.