Economy in Brief: 2012

Job market improvement remains in place. Initial unemployment insurance claims were unchanged last week at 351,000. (The previous week was revised from 348,000). The latest are the lowest figures since March 2008. Claims averaged [...]

As we have been warning for several months, the bounce in the EMU PMIs for MFG and Services were not to be taken to the bank. During a period when economic activity has been dropping quickly then slows its rate of descent, it is [...]

Sales of existing homes rose in January to a 4.570M annual rate (0.7% y/y) from a revised 4.380M during December, last month reported as 4.610M. The latest was the highest since May 2010. Data back to 2009 were revised. Sales of [...]

The consumer still is in a mood to spend. Chain store sales rose 3.0% last week (3.2% y/y) and more-than-recovered the prior week's decline. The increase lifted February sales so far by 0.8% versus January when sales fell 3.3% m/m. [...]

Tensions in the Mideast are having a further effect driving energy prices upward. The price for a barrel of light sweet crude oil jumped last week to $101.80 and remained up sharply from $79.71, the average during the first week of [...]

The National Association of Realtors reported that sales of existing homes edged up 0.4% (+9.1% y/y) in January to a 4.920M annual rate. December's sales were revised downward slightly from 4.94M to 4.90M, representing a decrease of [...]

The devastating floods in Thailand towards the end of last year led to an 11% drop in the fourth quarter GDP, by far the largest quarterly drop in real GDP on record. The dramatic fall is depicted in the first chart. All facets of the [...]

The January National Activity Index (CFNAI) from the Chicago Federal Reserve provides another sign of improving economic momentum. The index slipped to 0.22 from 0.54 in December, which was revised up from 0.17. However, the three- [...]