Global| Feb 23 2012U.S. Initial Claims For Jobless Insurance Are Stable And Low
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Job market improvement remains in place. Initial unemployment insurance claims were unchanged last week at 351,000. (The previous week was revised from 348,000). The latest are the lowest figures since March 2008. Claims averaged [...]
Job market improvement remains in place. Initial unemployment insurance claims were unchanged last week at 351,000. (The previous week was revised from 348,000). The latest are the lowest figures since March 2008. Claims averaged 359,000 (-11.3% y/y) during the last four weeks, a new cycle low. The latest compared to Consensus expectations for 355,000.
The latest initial claims figure cover the survey week for February nonfarm payrolls. Claims fell 4,000 (-1.1%) from the January period. During the last ten years there has been a 74% correlation between initial claims and the m/m change in payroll employment.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance also fell to 3.392M during the week of February 11 and were their lowest since August 2008. The insured rate of unemployment rate held at 2.7% w/w, the recovery low. This particular count covers only "regular" programs and does not include all extended benefit and other specialized jobless insurance programs. In the week of February 4th, the latest figure available, the grand total of all benefit recipients fell to 7.503M (-18.1% y/y).
By state, the insured unemployment rate varied as of February 4 with Virginia (1.7%), Texas (1.8%), Florida (1.9%), Arizona (2.3%), Tennessee (2.4%), and Ohio (2.7%) at the low end of the range. At the high end were rates in New York (3.5%), Maine (3.8%), California (4.0%), Michigan (4.1%), New Jersey (4.3%), and Pennsylvania (4.5%).
Data on weekly unemployment insurance programs are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database, including the seasonal factor series, and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states, including the unemployment rates that determine individual state eligibility for the extended benefits programs and specific "tiers" of the emergency program, are in REGIONW, a database of weekly data for states and various regional divisions. Action Economics consensus estimates are in AS1REPNA.
What's Not Working This Time Around? Third Dialogue Examines Why Unemployment Remains High from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis is available here.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 02/18/12 | 02/11/12 | 02/04/12 | Y/Y% | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 351 | 351 | 361 | -8.6 | 409 | 459 | 574 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 3,392 | 3,44 | -11.9 | 3,745 | 4,544 | 5,807 |
| Insured Unemployment Rate (%) | -- | 2.7 | 2.7 | 3.1 (2/11) |
3.0 | 3.6 | 4.4 |
| Total "All Programs" (NSA) | -- | -- | 7.503M | -18.1 | 2.750M | 9.850M | 9.163M |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
More Economy in Brief
