Tom Moeller

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/080214d.jpg" width="353">
Initial claims for jobless insurance slipped another 9,000 to 348,000 last week after the prior week&#39;s 21,000 decline. For February, claims so far are up 26,000, or 8.0%, from the January average. The latest weekly level remained near the highest since October of 2005.
The four-week moving average of initial claims, a measure which smoothes out most of the series&#39; w/w volatility, rose again to 347,250 (+5.6% y/y), the highest level since late 2005.
A claims level below 400,000 typically has been associated with growth in nonfarm payrolls. During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 76% correlation between the level of initial claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payroll employment.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance slipped 9,000 after a downwardly revised jump of 60,000 during the prior week. The figure provides some indication of workers&#39; ability to find employment but here again difficulties of seasonal adjustment this time of year are great.
The continuing claims numbers lag the initial claims figures by one week.
The insured rate of unemployment held at 2.1% for the second week.
Business Volatility, Job Destruction and Unemployment from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco can be found <a href="http://www.frbsf.org/economics/conferences/0711/haltiwanger.pdf">here</a>.
A Minimum Wager from the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis is available <a href="http://www.minneapolisfed.org/pubs/fedgaz/07-03/wage.cfm">here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/WEEKLY/@W5/@W507/@W507.HTM">Unemployment Insurance (000s)</a>&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">02/08/08</th>
<th scope="col">02/01/07</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2006&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Initial Claims</td>
<td>&nbsp;348</td>
<td>357</td>
<td>-2.2%</td>
<td>313</td>
<td>331</td>
<td>343</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Continuing Claims</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>2,761</td>
<td>8.3%</td>
<td>2,459</td>
<td>2,662</td>
<td>2,924</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
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Initial claims for jobless insurance slipped another 9,000 to 348,000 last week after the prior week's 21,000 decline. For February, claims so far are up 26,000, or 8.0%, from the January average. The latest weekly level remained near [...]

U.S. Weekly Initial Jobless Insurance Claims Slipped, Monthly Rose

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<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/080214c.jpg" align="left" border="0" height="265" width="353">
The U.S. foreign trade deficit in December narrowed sharply to
$58.8B from an unrevised $63.1B during November. The figure compared to
Consensus expectations for a deficit of $61.4B and it pulled the annual
deficit for 2007 to $771.6B, its lowest since 2004.
For December U.S. exports jumped 1.5%, the largest monthly
increase since July. Strong economies abroad and the lower value of the
dollar helped exports during all of last year to rise 12.2% after a
12.7% gain in 2006 and a 10.9% rise in 2005.
Exports of goods surged 1.9% in December (14.5% y/y) and for
the full year rose 12.2%. Growth in exports of foods, feeds &amp;
beverages slipped 1.7% in December but for the year this was the
strongest export category with a 27.7% rise. Exports of industrial
supplies &amp; materials also were strong last year and rose 14.3%.
During December exports of capital goods surged 5.2% to finish a year
of 7.8% growth after a 14.2% jump in 2006. Exports of civilian aircraft
rose 20.8% during all of last year while exports of computers jumped
18.3%.Nonauto consumer goods exports also were strong in December. They
rose 4.6% and were firm all year with a 12.6% increase. That was
similar to the gains during the prior three years.<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/080214b.jpg" align="right" border="0" height="265" width="353">
U.S. exports of services slipped 0.3% in December but finished
a year of 11.8% growth. That annual gain was paced by 14.1% growth in
travel exports and a 12.1% rise in passenger fares.
Overall imports fell 1.1% in December and the annual gain of
5.9% was the weakest since 2002. Higher oil prices did raise petroleum
imports by 4.2% in December and by 9.5% for the year, however, that was
the weakest annual rise since 2002. Petroleum imports in constant
dollars fell as the per barrel price of crude petroleum rose 11.1% for
the year. That followed price gains of 23.2% in 2006 and of 36.3% in
2005. Imports of nonauto consumer goods rose 7.3% last year, the
weakest gain since 2001 and capital goods imports increased 6.3% for
the year, the weakest gain since 2003.
The U.S. trade deficit in goods with China during 2007
deepened to $25.6B from $23.3B. Imports rose 11.7% and exports rose
18.2%, the weakest rise since 2002.
The Economy and Financial Markets is
today's testimony by Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and it is available <a href="http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/testimony/bernanke20080214a.htm">
here</a>.
Today's speech by Treasury Secretary Henry M. Paulson, Jr., Economy
and Financial Markets, can be found <a href="http://www.ustreas.gov/press/releases/hp828.htm"> here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead><tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@EE/@EE01/@EE01.HTM">Foreign
Trade&nbsp;</a></th>
<th scope="col">December</th>
<th scope="col">November</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2007</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">U.S. Trade Deficit</td>
<td>$58.8B</td>
<td>$63.1B</td>
<td>$60.3B 
(12/06)</td>
<td>$711.6</td>
<td>$758.5</td>
<td>$714.4B</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Exports - Goods &amp;
Services</td>
<td>1.5%</td>
<td>0.5%</td>
<td>13.6%</td>
<td>12.2%</td>
<td>12.7%</td>
<td>10.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Imports - Goods &amp;
Services</td>
<td>-1.1%</td>
<td>2.9%</td>
<td>8.4%</td>
<td>5.9%</td>
<td>10.4%</td>
<td>12.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Petroleum</td>
<td>4.2%</td>
<td>16.3%</td>
<td>52.4%</td>
<td>9.5%</td>
<td>20.1%</td>
<td>39.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Nonpetroleum Goods</td>
<td>-2.8%</td>
<td>0.9%</td>
<td>0.5%</td>
<td>4.6%</td>
<td>9.1%</td>
<td>10.3%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body></html>

The U.S. foreign trade deficit in December narrowed sharply to $58.8B from an unrevised $63.1B during November. The figure compared to Consensus expectations for a deficit of $61.4B and it pulled the annual deficit for 2007 to [...]

U.S. Trade Deficit Narrowed Sharply

Robert Brusca

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<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/080214a.jpg" align="left" border="0" height="265" width="353">
GDP growth is slowing on a broad front. German GDP is slowing
year/year for four straight quarters. For most other countries Q3
growth brought an up tick that quarter and interrupted what would have
been similar long strings of GDP deceleration. GDP growth year/year in
2007-Q4 slowed everywhere except in the Netherlands. Quarter-to-quarter
GDP growth rates slowed everywhere except Japan.

With the European releases on GDP we have no detail on GDP,
except for France. There weaker consumption and inventory reduction
brought GDP growth lower. We have seen the reduction in the growth
rates of the industrial sectors in recent months even though some of
the industrial indicators have displayed some firmer signals. The EU
sentiment indexes have marked this slowdown correctly.

The fact of the matter is that GDP here and now is slowing.
The recent rhetoric of the ECB is sounding much less certain and much
more like it is about to really keep its options open. Remember that
when the credit problems hit in the US at first the Fed did not think
that they would be so bad. Now UBS, a large Swiss bank, has just
reported larger subprime losses than expected and more exposure to
leverage type loans of the variety that have fallen into disregard.

German unions (IG Metall) are using feisty rhetoric to justify
pay hikes even saying that ECB is wrong and that policy should be
accommodative. Professional EMU forecasters (see ECB survey) now look
for weaker growth and more inflation in the Euro Area. Eurogroup
Chairman Jean-Claude Juncker has admitted that the situation is &#8216;not
completely clear any more&#8217;. Guy Quaden, ECB council member, has said
that the economy could decelerate faster than the ECB previously
thought. All of this suggests a situation, outlook and policy in flux.


<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
</table>

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup></colgroup>
<thead><tr><th colspan="8" scope="col"> Euro Area and Main G-10 Country GDP Results</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="even">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;</td>
<td colspan="3">Quarter over quarter</td>
<td colspan="4">Year/Year</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">GDP</td>
<td>Q4-07</td>
<td>Q3-07</td>
<td>Q2-07</td>
<td>Q4-07</td>
<td>Q3-07</td>
<td>Q2-07</td>
<td>Q1-07</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">EMU-13</td>
<td>1.7%</td>
<td>3.1%</td>
<td>1.2%</td>
<td style="color: red;">2.3%</td>
<td>2.7%</td>
<td style="color: red;">2.5%</td>
<td style="color: red;">3.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">France</td>
<td>1.4%</td>
<td>3.2%</td>
<td>1.4%</td>
<td style="color: red;">2.1%</td>
<td>2.2%</td>
<td style="color: red;">1.3%</td>
<td style="color: red;">1.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Germany</td>
<td>1.1%</td>
<td>2.7%</td>
<td>0.7%</td>
<td style="color: red;">1.7%</td>
<td style="color: red;">2.5%</td>
<td style="color: red;">2.6%</td>
<td style="color: red;">3.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Italy</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>1.7%</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>1.9%</td>
<td style="color: red;">1.8%</td>
<td style="color: red;">2.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">The Netherlands</td>
<td>4.7%</td>
<td>7.7%</td>
<td>1.1%</td>
<td>4.3%</td>
<td>3.9%</td>
<td style="color: red;">2.4%</td>
<td>3.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">UK</td>
<td>2.5%</td>
<td>2.5%</td>
<td>3.3%</td>
<td style="color: red;">2.9%</td>
<td style="color: red;">3.2%</td>
<td>3.2%</td>
<td style="color: red;">3.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">US</td>
<td>0.6%</td>
<td>4.9%</td>
<td>3.8%</td>
<td style="color: red;">2.5%</td>
<td>2.8%</td>
<td>1.9%</td>
<td style="color: red;">1.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Japan</td>
<td>3.7%</td>
<td>1.3%</td>
<td>-1.4%</td>
<td style="color: red;">1.8%</td>
<td>1.9%</td>
<td style="color: red;">1.7%</td>
<td>2.9%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body></html>

GDP growth is slowing on a broad front. German GDP is slowing year/year for four straight quarters. For most other countries Q3 growth brought an up tick that quarter and interrupted what would have been similar long strings of GDP [...]

GDP Slows on a Very Broad Front

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<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/080214c.jpg" align="left" border="0" height="265" width="353">
The U.S. foreign trade deficit in December narrowed sharply to
$58.8B from an unrevised $63.1B during November. The figure compared to
Consensus expectations for a deficit of $61.4B and it pulled the annual
deficit for 2007 to $771.6B, its lowest since 2004.
For December U.S. exports jumped 1.5%, the largest monthly
increase since July. Strong economies abroad and the lower value of the
dollar helped exports during all of last year to rise 12.2% after a
12.7% gain in 2006 and a 10.9% rise in 2005.
Exports of goods surged 1.9% in December (14.5% y/y) and for
the full year rose 12.2%. Growth in exports of foods, feeds &amp;
beverages slipped 1.7% in December but for the year this was the
strongest export category with a 27.7% rise. Exports of industrial
supplies &amp; materials also were strong last year and rose 14.3%.
During December exports of capital goods surged 5.2% to finish a year
of 7.8% growth after a 14.2% jump in 2006. Exports of civilian aircraft
rose 20.8% during all of last year while exports of computers jumped
18.3%.Nonauto consumer goods exports also were strong in December. They
rose 4.6% and were firm all year with a 12.6% increase. That was
similar to the gains during the prior three years.<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/080214b.jpg" align="right" border="0" height="265" width="353">
U.S. exports of services slipped 0.3% in December but finished
a year of 11.8% growth. That annual gain was paced by 14.1% growth in
travel exports and a 12.1% rise in passenger fares.
Overall imports fell 1.1% in December and the annual gain of
5.9% was the weakest since 2002. Higher oil prices did raise petroleum
imports by 4.2% in December and by 9.5% for the year, however, that was
the weakest annual rise since 2002. Petroleum imports in constant
dollars fell as the per barrel price of crude petroleum rose 11.1% for
the year. That followed price gains of 23.2% in 2006 and of 36.3% in
2005. Imports of nonauto consumer goods rose 7.3% last year, the
weakest gain since 2001 and capital goods imports increased 6.3% for
the year, the weakest gain since 2003.
The U.S. trade deficit in goods with China during 2007
deepened to $25.6B from $23.3B. Imports rose 11.7% and exports rose
18.2%, the weakest rise since 2002.
The Economy and Financial Markets is
today's testimony by Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and it is available <a href="http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/testimony/bernanke20080214a.htm">
here</a>.
Today's speech by Treasury Secretary Henry M. Paulson, Jr., Economy
and Financial Markets, can be found <a href="http://www.ustreas.gov/press/releases/hp828.htm"> here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead><tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@EE/@EE01/@EE01.HTM">Foreign
Trade&nbsp;</a></th>
<th scope="col">December</th>
<th scope="col">November</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2007</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">U.S. Trade Deficit</td>
<td>$58.8B</td>
<td>$63.1B</td>
<td>$60.3B 
(12/06)</td>
<td>$711.6</td>
<td>$758.5</td>
<td>$714.4B</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Exports - Goods &amp;
Services</td>
<td>1.5%</td>
<td>0.5%</td>
<td>13.6%</td>
<td>12.2%</td>
<td>12.7%</td>
<td>10.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Imports - Goods &amp;
Services</td>
<td>-1.1%</td>
<td>2.9%</td>
<td>8.4%</td>
<td>5.9%</td>
<td>10.4%</td>
<td>12.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Petroleum</td>
<td>4.2%</td>
<td>16.3%</td>
<td>52.4%</td>
<td>9.5%</td>
<td>20.1%</td>
<td>39.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Nonpetroleum Goods</td>
<td>-2.8%</td>
<td>0.9%</td>
<td>0.5%</td>
<td>4.6%</td>
<td>9.1%</td>
<td>10.3%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
U.S. Weekly Initial Jobless
Insurance Claims Slipped, Monthly Rose 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom
Moeller</a> February 14, 2008


<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/080214d.jpg" align="left" border="0" height="265" width="353">
Initial claims for jobless insurance slipped another 9,000 to
348,000 last week after the prior week's 21,000 decline. For February,
claims so far are up 26,000, or 8.0%, from the January average. The
latest weekly level remained near the highest since October of 2005.
The four-week moving average of initial claims, a measure
which smoothes out most of the series' w/w volatility, rose again to
347,250 (+5.6% y/y), the highest level since late 2005.
A claims level below 400,000 typically has been associated
with growth in nonfarm payrolls. During the last ten years there has
been a (negative) 76% correlation between the level of initial claims
and the m/m change in nonfarm payroll employment.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance slipped 9,000
after a downwardly revised jump of 60,000 during the prior week. The
figure provides some indication of workers' ability to find employment
but here again difficulties of seasonal adjustment this time of year
are great.
The continuing claims numbers lag the initial claims figures
by one week.
The insured rate of unemployment held at 2.1% for the second
week.
Business Volatility, Job Destruction and Unemployment
from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco can be found <a href="http://www.frbsf.org/economics/conferences/0711/haltiwanger.pdf">here</a>.
A Minimum Wager from the Federal Reserve
Bank of Minneapolis is available <a href="http://www.minneapolisfed.org/pubs/fedgaz/07-03/wage.cfm">here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead><tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/WEEKLY/@W5/@W507/@W507.HTM">Unemployment
Insurance (000s)</a>&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">02/08/08</th>
<th scope="col">02/01/07</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2006&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Initial Claims</td>
<td>&nbsp;348</td>
<td>357</td>
<td>-2.2%</td>
<td>313</td>
<td>331</td>
<td>343</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Continuing Claims</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>2,761</td>
<td>8.3%</td>
<td>2,459</td>
<td>2,662</td>
<td>2,924</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
U.S. Business Inventory
Accumulation Down in 4Q Due To Autos 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom
Moeller</a> February 14, 2008


<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/080214f.jpg" align="left" border="0" height="265" width="353">
The latest figures from the Commerce Department indicate that
total business inventory accumulation in December of 0.6% followed a
0.4% November rise. The three month change in inventories of 4.5% (AR)
was down from a 4.9% rate of accumulation during 3Q. The deceleration
was not, however, quite as drastic as indicated by the 1.2 percentage
point subtraction inventories made from economic growth, indicated in
the advance read of 4Q GDP. 
 

Retail inventories fell 0.1% during December following a
revised 0.3% November decline. Inventories of motor vehicles
fell 1.6% in December and the three month change swung to -8.2% (AR)
from an 18.5% rate of accumulation during 3Q. Inventories excluding
autos rose 0.7% in December (3.2% y/y) and the rate of accumulation
last quarter nearly tripled that in 3Q. 
 
<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/080214e.jpg" align="right" border="0" height="265" width="353">
The acceleration was due to building materials which grew 0.3%
in December but rose at a 6.8% rate in 4Q versus a 1.4% rate of decline
during 3Q. Furniture inventories fell 0.5% (+4.8% y/y) after a 0.9%
November drop and the three month change fell to 2.8% (AR) from 10.4%
in 3Q. At clothing &amp; accessory stores December inventories rose
0.5% after two months of modest decline. The three month rate held
steady last quarter with 3Q at roughly unchanged. Inventories at
general merchandise stores rose 0.9% in December and recouped about
half of a November decline. For the quarter decumulation held steady
with 3Q at a 2.5% rate.
Wholesale inventories jumped 1.1% after a 0.8% November surge.
Petroleum inventories skyrocketed 9.2%, more than double the November
rise. Less petroleum wholesale inventories rose 0.9% but the three
month change fell to 5.3% (AR) from 7.4% during 3Q. During the last ten
years there has been a 59% correlation between the annual change in
wholesale inventories les petroleum and the change in merchandise
imports.
Factory inventories increased 0.8% after a firm 0.7% rise
during November. The three month growth in factory inventories
accelerated to 6.7% from 2.5% during 3Q. Some of that acceleration owed
to petroleum refineries, but excluding petroleum factory inventories
still rose 5.8% (AR), nearly triple the 3Q rise.
Business sales fell 0.5% (+6.0% y/y) due to declines in
wholesale sales and factory shipments. The decline lifted the ratio of
inventories to sales off its lowest level since early 2006.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead><tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@ED/@ED06/@ED0601/@ED0601.HTM">Business
Inventories</a></th>
<th scope="col">December</th>
<th scope="col">November</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2007</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Total</td>
<td>0.6%</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>4.0%</td>
<td>4.0%</td>
<td>5.8%</td>
<td>6.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Retail</td>
<td>-0.1%</td>
<td>-0.3%</td>
<td>2.9%</td>
<td>2.9%</td>
<td>3.2%</td>
<td>2.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
Retail excl. Autos</td>
<td>0.7%</td>
<td>-0.4%</td>
<td>3.2%</td>
<td>3.2%</td>
<td>4.5%</td>
<td>4.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Wholesale</td>
<td>1.1%</td>
<td>0.8%</td>
<td>6.1%</td>
<td>6.1%</td>
<td>8.5%</td>
<td>7.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Manufacturing</td>
<td>0.8%</td>
<td>0.7%</td>
<td>3.6%</td>
<td>3.6%</td>
<td>6.4%</td>
<td>8.9%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
GDP Slows on a Very Broad Front by <a href="/comment/Brusca.html">Robert
Brusca</a> February 14, 2008


<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/080214a.jpg" align="left" border="0" height="265" width="353">
GDP growth is slowing on a broad front. German GDP is slowing
year/year for four straight quarters. For most other countries Q3
growth brought an up tick that quarter and interrupted what would have
been similar long strings of GDP deceleration. GDP growth year/year in
2007-Q4 slowed everywhere except in the Netherlands. Quarter-to-quarter
GDP growth rates slowed everywhere except Japan.

With the European releases on GDP we have no detail on GDP,
except for France. There weaker consumption and inventory reduction
brought GDP growth lower. We have seen the reduction in the growth
rates of the industrial sectors in recent months even though some of
the industrial indicators have displayed some firmer signals. The EU
sentiment indexes have marked this slowdown correctly.

The fact of the matter is that GDP here and now is slowing.
The recent rhetoric of the ECB is sounding much less certain and much
more like it is about to really keep its options open. Remember that
when the credit problems hit in the US at first the Fed did not think
that they would be so bad. Now UBS, a large Swiss bank, has just
reported larger subprime losses than expected and more exposure to
leverage type loans of the variety that have fallen into disregard.

German unions (IG Metall) are using feisty rhetoric to justify
pay hikes even saying that ECB is wrong and that policy should be
accommodative. Professional EMU forecasters (see ECB survey) now look
for weaker growth and more inflation in the Euro Area. Eurogroup
Chairman Jean-Claude Juncker has admitted that the situation is &#8216;not
completely clear any more&#8217;. Guy Quaden, ECB council member, has said
that the economy could decelerate faster than the ECB previously
thought. All of this suggests a situation, outlook and policy in flux.


<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
</table>
<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup></colgroup>
<thead><tr>
<th colspan="8" scope="col"> Euro
Area and Main G-10 Country GDP Results</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="even">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;</td>
<td colspan="3">Quarter over quarter</td>
<td colspan="4">Year/Year</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">GDP</td>
<td>Q4-07</td>
<td>Q3-07</td>
<td>Q2-07</td>
<td>Q4-07</td>
<td>Q3-07</td>
<td>Q2-07</td>
<td>Q1-07</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">EMU-13</td>
<td>1.7%</td>
<td>3.1%</td>
<td>1.2%</td>
<td style="color: red;">2.3%</td>
<td>2.7%</td>
<td style="color: red;">2.5%</td>
<td style="color: red;">3.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">France</td>
<td>1.4%</td>
<td>3.2%</td>
<td>1.4%</td>
<td style="color: red;">2.1%</td>
<td>2.2%</td>
<td style="color: red;">1.3%</td>
<td style="color: red;">1.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Germany</td>
<td>1.1%</td>
<td>2.7%</td>
<td>0.7%</td>
<td style="color: red;">1.7%</td>
<td style="color: red;">2.5%</td>
<td style="color: red;">2.6%</td>
<td style="color: red;">3.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Italy</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>1.7%</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>1.9%</td>
<td style="color: red;">1.8%</td>
<td style="color: red;">2.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">The Netherlands</td>
<td>4.7%</td>
<td>7.7%</td>
<td>1.1%</td>
<td>4.3%</td>
<td>3.9%</td>
<td style="color: red;">2.4%</td>
<td>3.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">UK</td>
<td>2.5%</td>
<td>2.5%</td>
<td>3.3%</td>
<td style="color: red;">2.9%</td>
<td style="color: red;">3.2%</td>
<td>3.2%</td>
<td style="color: red;">3.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">US</td>
<td>0.6%</td>
<td>4.9%</td>
<td>3.8%</td>
<td style="color: red;">2.5%</td>
<td>2.8%</td>
<td>1.9%</td>
<td style="color: red;">1.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Japan</td>
<td>3.7%</td>
<td>1.3%</td>
<td>-1.4%</td>
<td style="color: red;">1.8%</td>
<td>1.9%</td>
<td style="color: red;">1.7%</td>
<td>2.9%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body></html>

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<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/080213e.jpg" align="left" border="0" height="265" width="353">
Japan&#8217;s consumer confidence survey did not used to be monthly.
That is why the chart shows its past as a quarterly report represented
by unconnected dots co-joined with its new form in which the dots are
connected month-to-month. Based on a full sample of observations back
to 1988 the current Consumer confidence readings are very weak. Based
on the data from 2004 onward when monthly reporting kicked in these are
the worst levels for all of the components that this report has seen.
But in its broader historic context, while overall livelihood is nearly
at an all-time low, employment is still above mid range in its 54th
percentile. Willingness to buy durable goods is weak in the bottom 25
percentile of its range. The same relative position is true of expected
income growth. People assess the value of their assets as in about the
bottom third of its historic range. 
 

Clearly Japan is undergoing some difficulties. The consumer is
still very concerned about the future. While the OECD leading
indicators show Japan in an upswing of sorts, Japan&#8217;s own indicators
continue to show the economy bogged down with some conditions still
worsening. 
 


<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup></colgroup>
<thead><tr>
<th colspan="9" scope="col">Japan
Consumer Confidence </th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="even">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;</td>
<td colspan="3">Monthly</td>
<td colspan="3">Change over</td>
<td colspan="2">Percentile of range*</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;</td>
<td>Dec-07</td>
<td>Nov-07</td>
<td>Oct-07</td>
<td>3-mos</td>
<td>6-mos</td>
<td>12-Mos</td>
<td>Since 2004</td>
<td>Since 1988</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Overall Livelihood</td>
<td>34.9</td>
<td>37.0</td>
<td>41.0</td>
<td>-7.3</td>
<td>-7.5</td>
<td>-8.6</td>
<td>0.0</td>
<td>0.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Income growth</td>
<td>39.6</td>
<td>40.7</td>
<td>42.2</td>
<td>-2.8</td>
<td>-2.6</td>
<td>-2.5</td>
<td>0.0</td>
<td>26.1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Employment</td>
<td>40.6</td>
<td>43.1</td>
<td>45.3</td>
<td>-5.8</td>
<td>-8.4</td>
<td>-8.4</td>
<td>0.0</td>
<td>59.7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Willing to buy Durable Goods</td>
<td>37.0</td>
<td>38.4</td>
<td>42.8</td>
<td>-8.5</td>
<td>-9.4</td>
<td>-11.9</td>
<td>0.0</td>
<td>27.3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Value of Assets</td>
<td>40.8</td>
<td>42.4</td>
<td>44.6</td>
<td>-3.4</td>
<td>-5.9</td>
<td>-4.7</td>
<td>0.0</td>
<td>40.1</td>
</tr>
<tr class="grey2">
<td colspan="9" class="firstcol">For
two-person households; *
Percentiles since Mar 2004 when series became monthly or full period</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body></html>

Japan’s consumer confidence survey did not used to be monthly. That is why the chart shows its past as a quarterly report represented by unconnected dots co-joined with its new form in which the dots are connected month-to-month. [...]

Japan's Consumer Confidence Very Weak

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<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/080213d.jpg" align="left" border="0" height="265" width="353">
All EMU industrial sectors are seeing a considerable decline
in their rates of growth for industrial output. Capital goods has been
a strong sector in Europe and we have seen orders for capital goods
holding up especially in Germany. But on an EMU-wide basis capital
goods output is now declining over three months and its growth rate
year over year is declining as well. Consumer goods output has never
really been strong in this recovery and now it is showing signs of
decay from a low growth level. For the quarter industrial output is off
by about one percentage point. 
 

Among countries Germany is the strongest but even its growth
rates show a deceleration in IP. France (excluding construction) is
holding up a bit better than Germany, but with a weaker Yr/Yr rate of
growth. Italy&#8217;s output shows a deep year/year decline for output. Spain
shows a shallow Yr/Yr decline. The UK has been pretty flat for most of
the past year. 
 

For Q4 2007 Germany has the strongest contribution from IP at
3.4% Spain is next at 2.9% France is third at 1.1%. Italy has a
strongly negative -10.4% IP contraction in Q4. The UK has a small 0.5%
subtraction as IP sides in the fourth quarter. 
 

Despite some stirring the Zew Survey for Germany we also saw
that the Zew current conditions assessment is sliding. A pick up in
sentiment for the future hangs on some rate cuts by the Fed, the
potential for more and a US stimulus package that has just been passed
into law. But the future remains cloudy and current conditions are
still very weak, and in some cases, getting weaker. 


<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup></colgroup>
<thead><tr>
<th colspan="8" scope="col">Euro Area
and UK IP and MFG </th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="even">
<td class="firstcol">Saar except m/m</td>
<td colspan="3">Mo/Mo</td>
<td>Dec-07</td>
<td>Dec-07</td>
<td>Dec-07</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Euro Area Detail</td>
<td>Dec-07</td>
<td>Nov-07</td>
<td>Oct-07</td>
<td>3-Mo</td>
<td>6-mo</td>
<td>12-mo</td>
<td>Q-2-Date</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">MFG</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
<td>-0.5%</td>
<td>0.6%</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>1.3%</td>
<td>1.1%</td>
<td>-1.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Consumer</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
<td>-0.5%</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>-0.9%</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>-0.2%</td>
<td>-2.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Consumer Durables</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
<td>-1.9%</td>
<td>-0.1%</td>
<td>-7.8%</td>
<td>-4.9%</td>
<td>-4.0%</td>
<td>--</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Consumer Nondurables</td>
<td>-0.1%</td>
<td>-0.2%</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>-0.4%</td>
<td>0.8%</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>--</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Intermediate</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>-0.7%</td>
<td>0.6%</td>
<td>0.5%</td>
<td>0.6%</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>-1.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Capital</td>
<td>-1.0%</td>
<td>-0.2%</td>
<td>1.0%</td>
<td>-0.7%</td>
<td>2.4%</td>
<td>2.5%</td>
<td>0.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="grey3">
<td colspan="8" class="firstcol">Main
Euro Area Countries
and UK IP in MFG</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;</td>
<td colspan="3">Mo/Mo</td>
<td>105.2</td>
<td>105.2</td>
<td>105.2</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Memo: MFG</td>
<td>1-Mo%</td>
<td>1-Mo%</td>
<td>1-Mo%</td>
<td>3-Mo</td>
<td>6-mo</td>
<td>12-mo</td>
<td>Q-2-Date</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Germany:</td>
<td>0.9%</td>
<td>-0.2%</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
<td>3.0%</td>
<td>6.1%</td>
<td>5.3%</td>
<td>3.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">France: IP excl Construction</td>
<td>0.7%</td>
<td>-1.7%</td>
<td>2.0%</td>
<td>3.9%</td>
<td>3.3%</td>
<td>1.2%</td>
<td>1.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Italy</td>
<td>-0.5%</td>
<td>-1.7%</td>
<td>-0.8%</td>
<td>-11.5%</td>
<td>-6.7%</td>
<td>-6.4%</td>
<td>-10.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Spain</td>
<td>-1.5%</td>
<td>-6.7%</td>
<td>10.2%</td>
<td>5.5%</td>
<td>-3.3%</td>
<td>-0.3%</td>
<td>2.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">UK</td>
<td>-0.2%</td>
<td>-0.1%</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
<td>-0.8%</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
<td>-0.5%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body></html>

All EMU industrial sectors are seeing a considerable decline in their rates of growth for industrial output. Capital goods has been a strong sector in Europe and we have seen orders for capital goods holding up especially in Germany. [...]

IP Sinking in All Sectors

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/080213a.jpg" width="353">
U.S. retail sales rose 0.3% during January following an unrevised 0.4% decline during December. The gain beat expectations for a 0.2% decline.
Motor vehicle &amp; parts purchases rose 0.6% (-0.2% y/y). The rise contrasted with an earlier report of a 6.3% m/m decline in unit sales of light vehicles during January.
Excluding autos, retail sales last month barely exceeded expectations and rose 0.3%. That made up a little revised 0.3% December drop. November sales were revised down slightly.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/080213b.jpg" width="353">
Higher gasoline prices provided lift to retail sales with a 2.0% (23.0% y/y) gain. That, in part, reflected a 0.8% m/m rise in gas prices. Less gasoline &amp; autos, retail sales were unchanged and prior months&#39; results were taken down.
Last month, sales of building materials fell 1.7% (-4.8% y/y). Taking out these very volatile components of retail spending to perhaps gain a better sense of underlying consumer spending growth, retail sales less autos, gasoline and building materials rose 0.2% last month (3.5% y/y).
Food &amp; beverage store sales also provided lift to January sales with a 0.6% (5.7% y/y) rise. Restaurant &amp; drinking place sales fell 0.5% (+4.4% y/y).<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/080213c.jpg" width="353">
Sales of discretionary items generally were soft last month. Apparel store sales did rise 1.4% but that failed to fully make up a 2.3% December decline. Clothing store sales last month were 0.1% below the January level in 2007. Furniture, home furnishings &amp; appliance store sales fell 0.7% (-3.0% y/y) for the third decline in the last four months. Sales of electronics &amp; appliances dropped 1.0% after a 3.2% December slide. Sales at general merchandise stores rose 0.1% (2.4% y/y) after December&#39;s gain of 0.2%.
Sales of nonstore retailers (internet &amp; catalogue) rose 0.5% (10.6% y/y).
Housing, Credit and Consumer Expenditure from the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City can be found <a href="http://www.kansascityfed.org/publicat/sympos/2007/PDF/2007.09.17.Muellbauer.pdf">here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">January</th>
<th scope="col">December</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2007</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/usecon/@ED/@ED04/@ED0401/@ED0401.HTM">Retail Sales &amp; Food Services</a></td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>-0.4%</td>
<td>3.9%</td>
<td>4.1%</td>
<td>6.2%</td>
<td>6.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Excluding Autos</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>-0.3%</td>
<td>4.9%</td>
<td>4.6%</td>
<td>7.3%</td>
<td>7.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Less Gasoline</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
<td>-0.3%</td>
<td>2.6%</td>
<td>4.3%</td>
<td>7.2%</td>
<td>6.6%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
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U.S. retail sales rose 0.3% during January following an unrevised 0.4% decline during December. The gain beat expectations for a 0.2% decline. Motor vehicle & parts purchases rose 0.6% (-0.2% y/y). The rise contrasted with an earlier [...]

U.S. Retail Sales Above Expectations: Auto Sales & Gas Prices Rose

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<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/080213a.jpg" align="left" border="0" height="265" width="353">
U.S. retail sales rose 0.3% during January following an
unrevised 0.4% decline during December. The gain beat expectations for
a 0.2% decline.
Motor vehicle &amp; parts purchases rose 0.6% (-0.2% y/y).
The rise contrasted with an earlier report of a 6.3% m/m decline in
unit sales of light vehicles during January.
Excluding autos, retail sales last month barely exceeded
expectations and rose 0.3%. That made up a little revised 0.3% December
drop. November sales were revised down slightly.<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/080213b.jpg" align="right" border="0" height="265" width="353">
Higher gasoline prices provided lift to retail sales with a
2.0% (23.0% y/y) gain. That, in part, reflected a 0.8% m/m rise in gas
prices. Less gasoline &amp; autos, retail sales were unchanged and
prior months' results were taken down.
Last month, sales of building materials fell 1.7% (-4.8% y/y).
Taking out these very volatile components of retail spending to perhaps
gain a better sense of underlying consumer spending growth, retail
sales less autos, gasoline and building materials rose 0.2% last month
(3.5% y/y).
Food &amp; beverage store sales also provided lift to
January sales with a 0.6% (5.7% y/y) rise. Restaurant &amp;
drinking place sales fell 0.5% (+4.4% y/y).<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/080213c.jpg" align="left" border="0" height="265" width="353">
Sales of discretionary items generally were soft last month. Apparel
store sales did rise 1.4% but that failed to fully make up a
2.3% December decline. Clothing store sales last month were 0.1% below
the January level in 2007. Furniture, home furnishings
&amp; appliance store sales fell 0.7% (-3.0% y/y) for
the third decline in the last four months. Sales of electronics
&amp; appliances dropped 1.0% after a 3.2% December slide. Sales at
general merchandise stores rose 0.1% (2.4% y/y)
after December's gain of 0.2%.
Sales of nonstore retailers (internet &amp;
catalogue) rose 0.5% (10.6% y/y).
Housing, Credit and Consumer Expenditure
from the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City can be found <a href="http://www.kansascityfed.org/publicat/sympos/2007/PDF/2007.09.17.Muellbauer.pdf">here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead><tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">January</th>
<th scope="col">December</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2007</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/usecon/@ED/@ED04/@ED0401/@ED0401.HTM">Retail
Sales &amp; Food Services</a></td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>-0.4%</td>
<td>3.9%</td>
<td>4.1%</td>
<td>6.2%</td>
<td>6.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Excluding
Autos</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>-0.3%</td>
<td>4.9%</td>
<td>4.6%</td>
<td>7.3%</td>
<td>7.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
Less Gasoline</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
<td>-0.3%</td>
<td>2.6%</td>
<td>4.3%</td>
<td>7.2%</td>
<td>6.6%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
IP Sinking in All Sectors 
by <a href="/comment/Brusca.html">Robert
Brusca</a> February 13, 2008


<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/080213d.jpg" align="left" border="0" height="265" width="353">
All EMU industrial sectors are seeing a considerable decline
in their rates of growth for industrial output. Capital goods has been
a strong sector in Europe and we have seen orders for capital goods
holding up especially in Germany. But on an EMU-wide basis capital
goods output is now declining over three months and its growth rate
year over year is declining as well. Consumer goods output has never
really been strong in this recovery and now it is showing signs of
decay from a low growth level. For the quarter industrial output is off
by about one percentage point. 
 

Among countries Germany is the strongest but even its growth
rates show a deceleration in IP. France (excluding construction) is
holding up a bit better than Germany, but with a weaker Yr/Yr rate of
growth. Italy&#8217;s output shows a deep year/year decline for output. Spain
shows a shallow Yr/Yr decline. The UK has been pretty flat for most of
the past year. 
 

For Q4 2007 Germany has the strongest contribution from IP at
3.4% Spain is next at 2.9% France is third at 1.1%. Italy has a
strongly negative -10.4% IP contraction in Q4. The UK has a small 0.5%
subtraction as IP sides in the fourth quarter. 
 

Despite some stirring the Zew Survey for Germany we also saw
that the Zew current conditions assessment is sliding. A pick up in
sentiment for the future hangs on some rate cuts by the Fed, the
potential for more and a US stimulus package that has just been passed
into law. But the future remains cloudy and current conditions are
still very weak, and in some cases, getting weaker. 


<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup></colgroup>
<thead><tr>
<th colspan="8" scope="col">Euro Area
and UK IP and MFG </th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="even">
<td class="firstcol">Saar except m/m</td>
<td colspan="3">Mo/Mo</td>
<td>Dec-07</td>
<td>Dec-07</td>
<td>Dec-07</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Euro Area Detail</td>
<td>Dec-07</td>
<td>Nov-07</td>
<td>Oct-07</td>
<td>3-Mo</td>
<td>6-mo</td>
<td>12-mo</td>
<td>Q-2-Date</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">MFG</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
<td>-0.5%</td>
<td>0.6%</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>1.3%</td>
<td>1.1%</td>
<td>-1.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Consumer</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
<td>-0.5%</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>-0.9%</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>-0.2%</td>
<td>-2.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Consumer Durables</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
<td>-1.9%</td>
<td>-0.1%</td>
<td>-7.8%</td>
<td>-4.9%</td>
<td>-4.0%</td>
<td>--</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Consumer Nondurables</td>
<td>-0.1%</td>
<td>-0.2%</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>-0.4%</td>
<td>0.8%</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>--</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Intermediate</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>-0.7%</td>
<td>0.6%</td>
<td>0.5%</td>
<td>0.6%</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>-1.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Capital</td>
<td>-1.0%</td>
<td>-0.2%</td>
<td>1.0%</td>
<td>-0.7%</td>
<td>2.4%</td>
<td>2.5%</td>
<td>0.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="grey3">
<td colspan="8" class="firstcol">Main
Euro Area Countries
and UK IP in MFG</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;</td>
<td colspan="3">Mo/Mo</td>
<td>105.2</td>
<td>105.2</td>
<td>105.2</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Memo: MFG</td>
<td>1-Mo%</td>
<td>1-Mo%</td>
<td>1-Mo%</td>
<td>3-Mo</td>
<td>6-mo</td>
<td>12-mo</td>
<td>Q-2-Date</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Germany:</td>
<td>0.9%</td>
<td>-0.2%</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
<td>3.0%</td>
<td>6.1%</td>
<td>5.3%</td>
<td>3.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">France: IP excl Construction</td>
<td>0.7%</td>
<td>-1.7%</td>
<td>2.0%</td>
<td>3.9%</td>
<td>3.3%</td>
<td>1.2%</td>
<td>1.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Italy</td>
<td>-0.5%</td>
<td>-1.7%</td>
<td>-0.8%</td>
<td>-11.5%</td>
<td>-6.7%</td>
<td>-6.4%</td>
<td>-10.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Spain</td>
<td>-1.5%</td>
<td>-6.7%</td>
<td>10.2%</td>
<td>5.5%</td>
<td>-3.3%</td>
<td>-0.3%</td>
<td>2.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">UK</td>
<td>-0.2%</td>
<td>-0.1%</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
<td>-0.8%</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
<td>-0.5%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Japan's Consumer Confidence
VeryWeak 
by <a href="/comment/Brusca.html">Robert
Brusca</a> February 13, 2008


<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/080213e.jpg" align="left" border="0" height="265" width="353">
Japan&#8217;s consumer confidence survey did not used to be monthly.
That is why the chart shows its past as a quarterly report represented
by unconnected dots co-joined with its new form in which the dots are
connected month-to-month. Based on a full sample of observations back
to 1988 the current Consumer confidence readings are very weak. Based
on the data from 2004 onward when monthly reporting kicked in these are
the worst levels for all of the components that this report has seen.
But in its broader historic context, while overall livelihood is nearly
at an all-time low, employment is still above mid range in its 54th
percentile. Willingness to buy durable goods is weak in the bottom 25
percentile of its range. The same relative position is true of expected
income growth. People assess the value of their assets as in about the
bottom third of its historic range. 
 

Clearly Japan is undergoing some difficulties. The consumer is
still very concerned about the future. While the OECD leading
indicators show Japan in an upswing of sorts, Japan&#8217;s own indicators
continue to show the economy bogged down with some conditions still
worsening. 
 


<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup></colgroup>
<thead><tr>
<th colspan="9" scope="col">Japan
Consumer Confidence </th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="even">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;</td>
<td colspan="3">Monthly</td>
<td colspan="3">Change over</td>
<td colspan="2">Percentile of range*</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;</td>
<td>Dec-07</td>
<td>Nov-07</td>
<td>Oct-07</td>
<td>3-mos</td>
<td>6-mos</td>
<td>12-Mos</td>
<td>Since 2004</td>
<td>Since 1988</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Overall Livelihood</td>
<td>34.9</td>
<td>37.0</td>
<td>41.0</td>
<td>-7.3</td>
<td>-7.5</td>
<td>-8.6</td>
<td>0.0</td>
<td>0.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Income growth</td>
<td>39.6</td>
<td>40.7</td>
<td>42.2</td>
<td>-2.8</td>
<td>-2.6</td>
<td>-2.5</td>
<td>0.0</td>
<td>26.1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Employment</td>
<td>40.6</td>
<td>43.1</td>
<td>45.3</td>
<td>-5.8</td>
<td>-8.4</td>
<td>-8.4</td>
<td>0.0</td>
<td>59.7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Willing to buy Durable Goods</td>
<td>37.0</td>
<td>38.4</td>
<td>42.8</td>
<td>-8.5</td>
<td>-9.4</td>
<td>-11.9</td>
<td>0.0</td>
<td>27.3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Value of Assets</td>
<td>40.8</td>
<td>42.4</td>
<td>44.6</td>
<td>-3.4</td>
<td>-5.9</td>
<td>-4.7</td>
<td>0.0</td>
<td>40.1</td>
</tr>
<tr class="grey2">
<td colspan="9" class="firstcol">For
two-person households; *
Percentiles since Mar 2004 when series became monthly or full period</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body></html>

USD/EUR exchange rate uncoupling from interest rate differential

Widespread downgrading of 2025 GDP outlook

Trade and fiscal policy uncertainty has exploded with the new administration

Much lower US electricity costs gives it a competitive advantage

Wage growth slowing in the US and Euro area; elevated and sticky in the UK

Stagflation-lite: Blue Chip forecasts below-trend growth and elevated inflation

US policy gyrations boosting policy uncertainty worldwide

Expected tariff hikes have boosted inflation expectations

US and Japan ended 2024 on solid ground in contrast to Europe

US economy expected to outperform other major economies in 2025

Only modest evidence of AI-related surge in US productivity growth

Previous Trump tariffs fading. A boost from new tariffs ahead?

Heavy US manufacturing states underperforming while Sun Belt states outperforming

Rising long-term yields a global phenomenon

US financial market concerns shifting from growth to inflation

Economic activity is picking up in the US but remains lackluster abroad

Policy uncertainty has surged since the US national elections.

Recent turnaround in US economic surprises leading to increases in rate-cut expectations

The outlook has brightened in the US, while it has dimmed for other major economies

Headline US PCE inflation elevated by sticky services prices

US and global equity prices have recently diverged

US leading global upturn in economic surprises

Blue Chip forecasters look for further significant monetary easing apart from Japan

Recent rise in global supply chain pressures could augur a pickup in global inflation pressures

Underperforming German economy generating increased policy uncertainty relative to Europe and the US

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250502B5.jpg

Nonfarm payrolls increased 177,000 (1.2% y/y) during April after rising 185,000 in March, revised from 228,000, and 102,000 in February, revised from 117,000. Expectations had been for a 130,000 rise in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The latest figure left the three-month average change at 155,000 in April, down from 232,000 in January.

Average hourly earnings rose 0.2% during April after unrevised increases of 0.3% in March and 0.2% in February. Earnings growth of 3.8% y/y was below the 5.9% high in March 2022.

The unemployment rate, measured in the household survey, held m/m at an expected 4.2% in April, and compared to 4.1% in February and 4.0% in January. It reached a low of 3.4% in April 2023. The unemployment rate, including employees working part-time for economic reasons plus all marginally-attached workers, eased to 7.8% in April from 7.9% in March.

In the **establishment survey**, private-sector employment rose 167,000 (1.2% y/y) after a 170,000 March increase. Factory sector jobs edged 1,000 lower (-0.7% y/y) following a 3,000 gain. Construction sector employment increased 11,000 (1.7% y/y), after rising 7,000 in March.

Private service-producing sector employment increased 156,000 (1.4% y/y) in April after improving 161,000 in March. Increases varied greatly amongst service sector categories. Private education & health sector employment rose 70,000 (3.4% y/y) last month following a 74,000 March increase. Leisure & hospitality employment rose 24,000 (1.3% y/y) after a 38,000 gain. Trade, transportation & utilities rose 32,000 (0.9% y/y) in April following a 25,000 March increase. Professional & business services employment rose 17,000 (-0.1% y/y) following a 3,000 rise while temporary help employment rose 3,600 (-3.9% y/y) following a 2,700 decline. Financial activities employment improved 14,000 (1.2% y/y) after a 6,000 gain. The number of information sector jobs held steady (-0.4% y/y) last month after falling 2,000 in March.

Government sector payrolls rose 10,000 (1.3% y/y) last month after increasing 15,000 in March. The number of local government jobs increased 13,000 (1.4% y/y) following a 17,000 gain. State government employment rose 6,000 (1.8% y/y) following a 2,000 March increase but federal government payrolls fell 9,000 (-0.3% y/y), the third consecutive monthly decline.

Private-sector average hourly earnings rose 0.2% (3.8% y/y) in April after increasing 0.3% in March. Earnings in the goods-producing sector eased 0.1% (+4.0% y/y) following a 0.6% gain. Earnings in construction rose 0.3% (3.6% y/y), after a 0.2% rise but factory sector earnings declined 0.3% (+4.3% y/y) after surging 0.8% in March. In the private services-sector, earnings rose 0.2% (3.7% y/y) in April for the third straight month. Information sector pay increased 1.0% (5.2% y/y) last month after easing 0.1%, and financial activities earnings rose 0.5% (4.3% y/y) for the second straight month. Trade, transportation & utilities sector pay increased 0.4% (3.4% y/y) after 0.6%. Professional & business sector earnings increased 0.1% (4.4% y/y) after 0.2% in March. Leisure & hospitality earnings held steady (+3.8% y/y) following a 0.6% March increase.

250502C5.jpg

250502D5.jpg

The length of the average workweek held steady at 34.3 hours in April. The workweek in the goods-producing sector eased to 39.8 hours from 40.0 hours. The construction sector average workweek eased to 39.0 hours from 39.3 hours while the factory sector workweek moved lower to 40.0 hours from 40.2. The average workweek in the private service sector held at 33.2 hours. Professional & business service hours fell to 36.3 hours from 36.4 while trade, transportation & utilities hours improved to 34.3 from 34.0 hours. Private education hours rose slightly to 32.8, but leisure & hospitality held steady at 25.5 hours.

In the **household survey**, the unemployment rate held at 4.2% in April as employment rose 436,000 and the size of the labor force increased 518,000. The labor force participation rate edged up to 62.6% last month from 62.5% in March. It remained below the high of 63.3% early in 2020. The rate for teenagers declined to 36.9%. For workers aged 20-24, the rate held steady at 72.1%, up from 71.8% six months earlier. For workers aged 25-54 the rate rose to 83.6%, a five-month high. For individuals 55 and over, the rate improved to 38.4% in April.

The employment/population ratio for all workers in April rose to 60.0%. It remained below the peak reading of 61.1% in February, 2020 just prior to the pandemic.

The employment and earnings data are collected from surveys taken each month during the week containing the 12th day of the month. The labor market data are contained in Haver's **USECON** database. Detailed figures are in the **EMPL** and **LABOR** databases. The expectations figures are in the **AS1REPNA** database.

250502X5.jpg

250502F5.jpg

- Job growth spreads across most sectors.
- Earnings growth trend decelerates.
- Jobless rate holds steady.

U.S. Job Growth Is Firm in April but March Gain Is Lessened

Winnie Tapasanun

250502F32.jpg

250502G32.jpg

Total factory orders rose a slightly less-than-expected 4.3% m/m in March after rises of 0.5% in February and 1.8% in January, data from the U.S. Census Bureau showed. A 4.5% m/m March increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The March reading was the third successive monthly rise and the largest since July 2024. The year-on-year rate accelerated to 6.0% in March, the highest since November 2022, from 2.3% in February. Notably, orders for nondefense aircraft & parts soared 139.0% in March following a 7.4% drop in February and a 92.9% surge in January. Factory orders excluding defense rose 4.8% (5.9% y/y), the largest of three straight m/m/ rises, after a 0.4% February increase. Factory orders excluding the transportation sector fell 0.2% (+1.1% y/y), the first m/m fall since August, after rising 0.3% in February, January and December.

Durable goods orders jumped 9.2% (11.9% y/y) in March, the third consecutive m/m gain and the biggest since July 2024, on top of a 0.8% increase in February (matching +9.2% m/m in the advance report on April 24). The March jump reflected m/m orders increases of 27.1% (the largest m/m surge since July 2024; 31.2% y/y) in transportation equipment, 1.1% (4.9% y/y) in primary metals, 0.5% (-0.4% y/y) in furniture & related products, 0.1% (2.5% y/y) in fabricated metal products, and 0.1% (0.9% y/y) in machinery. To the downside, durable goods orders for computers & electronic products (-1.3%; +2.7% y/y) and electrical equipment, appliances & components (-1.0%; +4.2% y/y) declined m/m in March.

Nondurable goods orders, which equal nondurable goods shipments, fell 0.3% (+0.4% y/y) in March, the first m/m fall since September, after a 0.1% uptick in February. The March fall reflected m/m drops of 2.4% (-9.3% y/y) in petroleum & coal products and 0.9% (-1.2% y/y) in apparel. To the upside, the following nondurable goods shipments rose m/m in March: leather & allied products (1.5%; 8.6% y/y), beverage & tobacco products (0.7%; 5.8% y/y), paper products (0.6%; 2.3% y/y), printing (0.3%; 3.8% y/y), textile mills (0.3%; 0.8% y/y), chemical products (0.2%; 5.4% y/y), plastics & rubber products (0.2%; 0.4% y/y), food products (0.1%; 1.8% y/y), and textile products (0.1%; 2.1% y/y).

Total shipments slipped 0.1% (+2.0% y/y) in March, the first m/m easing since October, after a 0.7% increase in February. Excluding transportation, shipments were virtually unchanged m/m (+1.1% y/y) in March following six straight m/m gains. Shipments of durable goods industries inched up 0.1% (3.8% y/y) in March, the smallest of four consecutive m/m increases, after a 1.3% advance in February. This reflected m/m durable goods shipments rises of 1.2% (5.6% y/y) in primary metals, 0.9% (0.1% y/y) in furniture & related products, 0.8% (-0.2% y/y) in nonmetallic mineral products, 0.4% (0.0% y/y) in machinery, 0.3% (1.8% y/y) in fabricated metal products, 0.2% (4.5% y/y) in computers & electronic products, 0.2% (-2.1% y/y) in wood products, and 0.1% (3.0% y/y) in electrical equipment, appliances & components. In contrast, durable goods shipments for transportation equipment (-0.5%; +7.3% y/y) and miscellaneous durable goods (-0.1%; +2.9% y/y) fell m/m in March following three successive m/m increases.

Unfilled orders rose 2.0% (2.3% y/y) in March, up for the eighth month in nine, after a 0.1% uptick in February. Excluding transportation, unfilled orders dipped 0.1% (+0.7% y/y) in March, the first m/m easing since May 2024, after holding steady in February. Backlogs of durable goods rose 2.0% (2.3% y/y) in March, reflecting m/m rises of 3.1% (3.1% y/y) in transportation equipment and 0.2% (2.4% y/y) in electrical equipment, appliances & components.

Inventories edged up 0.1% (0.9% y/y) in March, the fifth straight m/m increase, after rising at the same pace in the prior two months. Excluding transportation, inventories were up 0.1% (0.5% y/y) in March, the fifth consecutive m/m rise. Durable goods inventories ticked up 0.1% (1.0% y/y) in March after holding steady in February and January; nondurable goods inventories edged up 0.1% (0.8% y/y), the fifth successive m/m increase.

The factory sector data are available in Haver’s **USECON** database. The Action Economics Forecast Survey is in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- March manufacturers’ new orders +4.3% m/m; +6.0% y/y, highest since Nov. ’22.
- Durable goods orders (+9.2%) jump m/m, while nondurable goods orders (-0.3%) and shipments (-0.1%) decline m/m.
- Transportation equipt. orders +27.1% m/m, w/ a 139.0% m/m surge in nondefense aircraft & parts orders.
- Unfilled orders +2.0%, the eighth m/m rise in nine months.
- Inventories +0.1%, the fifth consecutive m/m increase.

U.S. Factory Orders Increase for the Third Straight Month in March

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The global manufacturing data showed broad weakening in April as conditions weakened across more than half of the contributing early reporters in the S&P survey of manufacturing. Of the 18 early reporting countries, more than half of them showed deceleration over six months and 12 months. Over three months, only 8 of 18 showed deterioration and that's about as good as it got in this report. In the current month, month-to-month changes showed more than half of the survey contributors showing weaker results than the month before. In the S&P framework, manufacturing improved month-to-month for the U.S.; however, looking at sequential averages for the U.S., U.K., European monetary union, Canada, and Japan, we see a steady weakening and results over 12 months, over six months versus 12 months, and for three months versus 6 months. The highly developed countries are not doing particularly well.

Asian economies are also showing slight deterioration but doing a little better than the developed countries in general.

Only five of the 18 reporting countries have queue percentile standings in their data back to January 2021 that are above their medians. Readings at or above the 50% mark are at or above the median standing. Canada is showing the weakest manufacturing result on record over this span, in terms of its queue percentile standing which is at 0 in the current month.

I showed the graphic for the Baltic dry goods index in this report rather than statistics on the manufacturing PMI data because the Baltic data, which reflect shipping volume for dry goods - that is excluding things like oil - is weak but it's only in the neighborhood where it's been for some time. There has been a great deal of talk about how tariffs may have impacted trade flows, expected trade flows, shipping, shipping rates, and the like. However, according to the Baltic dry goods index, there isn't much evidence that this is occurring right now and affecting the current data. That may still lie ahead but for now it's not baked in the cake.

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Globally Manufacturing Weakens

Andrew Cates

**China-US shipping activity** 
The economic fallout from escalating US-China trade tensions is becoming increasingly visible in the data. A clear example is the chart below, which highlights a sharp drop in vessel arrivals at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, along with a notable decline in ships waiting offshore. These trends point to a tangible weakening in bilateral trade flows, as the effects of tit-for-tat tariffs imposed by both countries begin to bite. Given the outsized role the US and China play in global commerce, this slowdown is likely to reverberate through global supply chains, weighing on trade volumes, dampening demand, and curbing economic growth worldwide.

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**GDP growth in Q1**
Data this week showed that the US economy contracted, albeit modestly, in Q1 even as the euro area recorded a modest expansion—an unusual divergence. The contraction in US GDP can be largely attributed to a sharp increase in imports, as firms rushed to front-load purchases ahead of anticipated tariff hikes. In addition, domestic demand was subdued, with weaker contributions from both consumer spending and government consumption. This decoupling between the US and euro area economies is particularly striking given the current global focus on the US dollar. While the euro area has shown unexpected signs of resilience, the US downturn raises important questions about its underlying momentum, especially as trade dynamics and policy uncertainty continue to cloud the outlook.

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**The US dollar versus yield differentials**
Chart 3 below illustrates a sharp breakdown in the correlation between the US-Germany 10-year yield differential and the EUR/USD exchange rate. Historically, the dollar has moved closely with interest rate spreads, as yield-seeking capital flowed into US assets. But since early 2025—and more acutely following the April tariff actions—the dollar has weakened markedly even as the yield spread has narrowed only modestly. This decoupling underscores a critical shift: capital markets are reacting not just to monetary policy, but to rising trade and geopolitical uncertainty. In other words, the exchange rate is now being driven as much by risk sentiment as by interest rate arbitrage.

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**The US economy’s structural outperformance and the dollar**
A second dynamic, captured in the next chart, reveals a tight correlation between the US real effective exchange rate and the potential GDP growth differential between the US and euro area over the past 50-60 years. This raises the question: has dollar strength (until recently) merely been a reflection of US growth leadership—or are capital inflows themselves helping to sustain this growth outperformance? In effect, the tail may be wagging the dog. Global investors have long allocated capital to the US, attracted by its macroeconomic resilience, technological leadership, and deep, liquid financial markets. The danger now is that the US trade war may disrupt this equilibrium. A sharp or sustained reduction in capital inflows could undermine growth, weaken the dollar, and trigger broader financial instability. Moreover, reversing this dynamic is not straightforward—barring a credible structural resurgence in European (or Asian) growth, the global investment landscape remains tilted toward the US.

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**US competitiveness versus Europe, China and Japan** 
The next chart below examines relative unit labour costs across major economies since 2011. The US and China have seen a broadly similar trajectory, with steady increases in relative cost structures, while the euro area has remained flat and Japan has seen dramatic improvement. This suggests that, from a cost competitiveness standpoint, the US is not uniquely disadvantaged vis-à-vis China. However, as we discuss further below, this parallel erosion of cost competitiveness is occurring at much higher nominal wage levels in the US, which blunts its ability to regain export share through tariff-related shifts alone. The trade war strategy—absent a corresponding improvement in productivity or structural reforms—risks imposing costs without delivering material competitiveness gains.

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**Average wages in selected developed and developing economies**
This point is reinforced by the final chart, which shows estimates for average monthly wages across countries in 2024. US labour remains much more expensive than in peer or emerging economies. So even if China’s costs rise in tandem with the US, the global supply chain has ample alternatives. 'China plus one' strategies are accelerating, and the US remains structurally misaligned with low-cost production hubs. Tariffs aimed at reshoring supply chains are unlikely to deliver sustained gains unless accompanied by deep supply-side reforms, and risk further disincentivizing foreign direct investment if global firms perceive US trade policy as erratic or punitive.

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Financial markets found a measure of calm this week, buoyed by some subtle shifts in tone from US policymakers. A softening in the administration’s rhetoric around trade tariffs coupled with a less confrontational stance toward Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, helped ease tensions that had roiled markets earlier in the month. Equities rebounded modestly, and volatility indicators edged lower, reflecting cautious optimism that the worst of the policy shocks may be behind us. But beneath the surface, significant downside risks persist. New shipping data point to a pronounced slowdown in US-China trade flows (chart 1), suggesting the damage from recent tariff escalations is already rippling through global supply chains. Meanwhile, incoming data for the US revealed an unexpected contraction in the economy in Q1 and further signs of weakness in the labour market (chart 2). The US dollar, in the meantime, while long supported by superior growth and yield differentials, has begun to decouple from traditional drivers (charts 3 and 4) suggesting growing pressure on capital flows. At the same time, structural imbalances are drawing renewed scrutiny: unit labour cost comparisons show the US steadily losing competitiveness (chart 5), while nominal wage disparities remain stark versus China and other Asian economies, further complicating any effort to restore trade balance without broader reforms (chart 6). In short, while markets may be drawing temporary comfort from a pause in tariff brinkmanship, the deeper economic and financial vulnerabilities exposed this month remain unresolved—and increasingly central to the global macro narrative.

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Charts of the Week: Tariff Truce, Tenuous Trust

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U.S. light vehicle sales dropped 2.9% (+6.5% y/y) to 17.31 million units (SAAR) in April after surging 10.8% to 17.82 million units in March. The retreat in April vehicle sales accompanied a 1.7% y/y rise in real disposable income through March, which compared to 2.0% growth last year.

Sales declines were broad-based last month. Light truck sales fell 1.3% (+9.9% y/y) during April to 14.34 million units (SAAR), after rising 12.4% in March. Purchases of domestically-made light trucks declined 1.2% (+11.9% y/y) to 11.02 million units, after jumping 12.5% in March. Sales of imported light trucks fell 1.8% (+4.4% y/y) to 3.32 million units, following an 11.6% March surge.

Trucks’ record 82.8% share of the light vehicle market last month compared to 81.5% in March and 80.3% in April of last year. The share averaged 80.3% during all of 2024 versus 53.3% ten years earlier.

Auto sales also declined last month, down 9.5% (-7.5%) to 2.97 million units (SAAR) following a 3.5% March rise. The decline reversed all of the increase over the prior two months. Purchases of domestically-produced cars fell 9.8% (-4.3% y/y) last month to 2.22 million units, after rising 3.8% in March. Sales of imported autos declined 9.6% (-15.7% y/y) to 0.75 million units, following a 2.5% March increase.

Imports' 23.5% share of the U.S. light vehicle market was little changed from 23.6% in March and compared to a May 2023 low of 22.9% and a high of 26.3% in November of 2023. Imports' share of the passenger car market held steady at 25.3% last month and compared to 27.7% in April of last year. It reached a high of 38.7% in September 2021. Imports' share of the light truck market eased to 23.2% last month after falling to 23.3% in March.

U.S. vehicle sales figures can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. Additional detail by manufacturer is in the I**NDUSTRY** database.

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- Light truck sales pull back, while auto sales tumble.
- Both domestic and imported sales decline.
- Imports' market share slips further.

Economy in Brief: February 2008

Jump to:

U.S. Weekly Initial Jobless Insurance Claims Slipped, Monthly Rose

U.S. Trade Deficit Narrowed Sharply

GDP Slows on a Very Broad Front

U.S. Trade Deficit Narrowed Sharply

Japan's Consumer Confidence Very Weak

IP Sinking in All Sectors

U.S. Retail Sales Above Expectations: Auto Sales & Gas Prices Rose

U.S. Retail Sales Above Expectations: Auto Sales & Gas Prices Rose