Global| Feb 13 2008U.S. Retail Sales Above Expectations: Auto Sales & Gas Prices Rose
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
U.S. retail sales rose 0.3% during January following an unrevised 0.4% decline during December. The gain beat expectations for a 0.2% decline. Motor vehicle & parts purchases rose 0.6% (-0.2% y/y). The rise contrasted with an earlier [...]
U.S. retail sales rose 0.3% during January following an unrevised 0.4% decline during December. The gain beat expectations for a 0.2% decline.
Motor vehicle & parts purchases rose 0.6% (-0.2% y/y). The rise contrasted with an earlier report of a 6.3% m/m decline in unit sales of light vehicles during January.
Excluding autos, retail sales last month barely exceeded expectations and rose 0.3%. That made up a little revised 0.3% December drop. November sales were revised down slightly.
Higher gasoline prices provided lift to retail sales with a 2.0% (23.0% y/y) gain. That, in part, reflected a 0.8% m/m rise in gas prices. Less gasoline & autos, retail sales were unchanged and prior months' results were taken down.
Last month, sales of building materials fell 1.7% (-4.8% y/y). Taking out these very volatile components of retail spending to perhaps gain a better sense of underlying consumer spending growth, retail sales less autos, gasoline and building materials rose 0.2% last month (3.5% y/y).
Food & beverage store sales also provided lift to January sales with a 0.6% (5.7% y/y) rise. Restaurant & drinking place sales fell 0.5% (+4.4% y/y).
Sales of discretionary items generally were soft last month. Apparel store sales did rise 1.4% but that failed to fully make up a 2.3% December decline. Clothing store sales last month were 0.1% below the January level in 2007. Furniture, home furnishings & appliance store sales fell 0.7% (-3.0% y/y) for the third decline in the last four months. Sales of electronics & appliances dropped 1.0% after a 3.2% December slide. Sales at general merchandise stores rose 0.1% (2.4% y/y) after December's gain of 0.2%.
Sales of nonstore retailers (internet & catalogue) rose 0.5% (10.6% y/y).
Housing, Credit and Consumer Expenditure from the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City can be found here.
| January | December | Y/Y | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Sales & Food Services | 0.3% | -0.4% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 6.2% | 6.6% |
| Excluding Autos | 0.3% | -0.3% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 7.3% | 7.6% |
| Less Gasoline | 0.0% | -0.3% | 2.6% | 4.3% | 7.2% | 6.6% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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