Economy in Brief: November 2019

The ZEW survey in November has month-to-month increases in most macroeconomic, interest rate and stock market readings. But it is not just this breadth that is impressive; it is the breadth on top of a strong change in individual [...]

The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) reported that its Small Business Optimism Index rose 0.6% (-4.7% y/y) to 102.4 during October and recovered half of the September decline. The index remained near its recent low, [...]

Recent improvement in factory production lent some life to pricing power in the sector. The Industrial Materials Price Index from the Foundation for International Business and Economic Research (FIBER) increased 2.2% during the last [...]

Wholesale inventories fell 0.4% during September (+4.8% y/y) following a 0.1% August gain, revised from 0.2%. A 0.3% decline had been expected in the Informa Global Markets Survey. Durable goods inventories eased 0.1% (+6.9% y/y) in [...]

The trends The German trade surplus is waffling at a level lower than it was before July of last year (see Chart). Export and import growth rates have been declining as well. Import growth that has been stronger than export growth for [...]

Wholesale inventories fell 0.4% during September (+4.8% y/y) following a 0.1% August gain, revised from 0.2%. A 0.3% decline had been expected in the Informa Global Markets Survey. Durable goods inventories eased 0.1% (+6.9% y/y) in [...]

The weakening in September retail sales reported last month was very much in evidence in today's consumer credit report. Consumer Credit Outstanding increased $9.52 billion (4.9% y/y) during September following a $17.83 billion August [...]

On the face of it, September was not a good month for German industrial production. Output fell by 0.6% overall, it fell by 0.5% for consumer goods, it fell by 1.5% for capital goods and it fell by 1.3% for intermediate goods. But [...]