Tom Moeller

<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.01 Transitional//EN">
<html><head>
<style>
.odd{
background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style>
</head>
<body>
 




<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/091111a.jpg" align="right" border="0" height="265" width="353">It appears
that consumer malaise continued early this month. During the latest
week, chain store sales slipped 0.1% after having been roughly
unchanged during October and down moderately in September.
Nevertheless, the sharp down-trend in sales of earlier this year
appears over.
The
ICSC-Goldman Sachs retail chain-store sales index is constructed using
the same-store sales (stores open for one year) reported by 78 stores
of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney,
Sears and Wal-Mart.
 During the last ten
years there has been a 69% correlation between the year-to-year growth
in chain store sales and the growth in general merchandise retail sales.
The weekly figures are available in Haver's SURVEYW database.<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/091111b.jpg" align="right" border="0" height="265" width="353">

Prospects for an improvement in sales continue to appear limited. The
leading indicator of sales has been roughly unchanged since the spring
of this year. On the other hand, a backslide in spending also seems
unlikely. The sharp declines of the leading indicator of sales from
2007 to early-2009 are over.
 This composite leading economic indicator
is compiled from four series: (1) the MBA's volume index of mortgage
applications 
for home purchase (2) the ABC News/Money magazine's survey of consumer
buying conditions (3) new filings for jobless benefits and (4) the
30-year government bond yield.
Employment growth: Cyclical
movements or structural change from the Federal Reserve Bank
of Chicago is available <a href="http://www.chicagofed.org/publications/economicperspectives/ep_4qtr2009_part3_rissman.pdf">here
</a>.
The
Current State of the Economy and a Look to the Future (With Reference
to William &#8216;Sidestroke&#8217; Miles, W. Somerset Maugham, Don Ameche and
Kenneth Arrow) is the title of yesterday's speech by Dallas
Fed Governor Richard W. Fisher and it can be found <a href="http://dallasfed.org/news/speeches/fisher/2009/fs091110.cfm">here</a>


<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead><tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/surveyw/@S2/@S2.HTM" style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">ICSC-UBS (SA,
1977=100)</a></th>
<th scope="col">11/07/09</th>
<th scope="col">10/31/09</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2008</th>
<th scope="col">2007</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Total Weekly Chain
Store Sales</td>
<td>490.9</td>
<td>491.3</td>
<td>2.9%</td>
<td>1.4%</td>
<td>2.8%</td>
<td>3.3%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body></html>

It appears that consumer malaise continued early this month. During the latest week, chain store sales slipped 0.1% after having been roughly unchanged during October and down moderately in September. Nevertheless, the sharp down- [...]

Weekly Chain Store Sales Slip Following Several Lackluster Weeks

<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.01 Transitional//EN">
<html><head>
<style>
.odd{
background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style>
</head>
<body>
 




<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/091111a.jpg" align="right" border="0" height="265" width="353">It appears
that consumer malaise continued early this month. During the latest
week, chain store sales slipped 0.1% after having been roughly
unchanged during October and down moderately in September.
Nevertheless, the sharp down-trend in sales of earlier this year
appears over.
The
ICSC-Goldman Sachs retail chain-store sales index is constructed using
the same-store sales (stores open for one year) reported by 78 stores
of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney,
Sears and Wal-Mart.
 During the last ten
years there has been a 69% correlation between the year-to-year growth
in chain store sales and the growth in general merchandise retail
sales.
The weekly figures are available in Haver's SURVEYW database.
<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/091111b.jpg" align="right" border="0" height="265" width="353">Prospects
for an improvement in sales continue to appear limited. The
leading indicator of sales has been roughly unchanged since the spring
of this year. On the other hand, a backslide in spending also seems
unlikely. The sharp declines of the leading indicator of sales from
2007 to early-2009 are over.
 This composite leading economic indicator
is compiled from four series: (1) the MBA's volume index of mortgage
applications 
for home purchase (2) the ABC News/Money magazine's survey of consumer
buying conditions (3) new filings for jobless benefits and (4) the
30-year government bond yield.
Employment growth: Cyclical
movements or structural change from the Federal Reserve Bank
of Chicago is available <a href="http://www.chicagofed.org/publications/economicperspectives/ep_4qtr2009_part3_rissman.pdf">here
</a>.
The
Current State of the Economy and a Look to the Future (With Reference
to William &#8216;Sidestroke&#8217; Miles, W. Somerset Maugham, Don Ameche and
Kenneth Arrow) is the title of yesterday's speech by Dallas
Fed Governor Richard W. Fisher and it can be found <a href="http://dallasfed.org/news/speeches/fisher/2009/fs091110.cfm">here</a>


<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead><tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/surveyw/@S2/@S2.HTM" style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">ICSC-UBS (SA,
1977=100)</a></th>
<th scope="col">11/07/09</th>
<th scope="col">10/31/09</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2008</th>
<th scope="col">2007</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Total Weekly Chain
Store Sales</td>
<td>490.9</td>
<td>491.3</td>
<td>2.9%</td>
<td>1.4%</td>
<td>2.8%</td>
<td>3.3%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
JOLTS: U.S. Job Openings Improved
While Hiring Remains Steady 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom
Moeller</a> November 11, 2009


<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/091111c.jpg" align="right" border="0" height="265" width="353">
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported in its Job Openings
&amp; Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) that job availability improved
during September by 2.4% from August. The rise in the number
of job openings followed a 0.6% August uptick that was
revised from the initial report of a slight decline. Despite these
improvements, however, openings were off 25.9% from September of last
year. The series dates back to December 2000.<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/091111d.jpg" align="right" border="0" height="265" width="353">

Factory sector job openings rose sharply for the second
consecutive month but they
remained down 42.4% y/y. The recent rise in the actual
number of construction sector job openings paused last month. Though
still down 59.2% y/y in September, openings were roughly double the
series' low reached in February. The
level of professional &amp; business services job openings posted
its second consecutive monthly gain (-25.2% y/y) and education
&amp; health sectors job openings (-12.3% y/y) reversed most of an
August decline. Openings in retail trade have risen slightly from their
April low (-9.8% y/y) while government sector job openings reflected
reduced tax revenues and fell to a new series' low (-38.1% y/y.<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/091111e.jpg" align="right" border="0" height="265" width="353">

The job openings rate rose slightly from
the series' low reached this summer to 1.9%. These rates were down from
more than 3% in 2007. Recent gains have been led by the factory
&amp; construction sectors. The job openings rate is the
number of job openings on the last business day of the month as a
percent of total employment plus job openings.
The hires rate held steady at 3.1%, up
slightly from the May-June low of 3.0%, and still was nearly the lowest
in the series' short eight year history.The hires rate is the
number of hires during the month divided by employment.The
actual number of hires also was off its low but was still down by 11.0%
year-to-year. Factory sector hiring recently has picked up slightly but
remains off 14.1% y/y while construction sector hiring has moved
sideways since the winter (-3.3% y/y). Leisure &amp; hospitality
industry jobs fell 6.0% to a new series' low (19.8%) as did retail
sector hiring (-19.1%). In the professional &amp; business services
industry hires slipped after two strong monthly gains (-11.2% y/y)
while jobs in the education &amp; health services jobs gave back
the July increase but remained up 3.6% y/y.
<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/091111f.jpg" align="right" border="0" height="265" width="353">
The job separations rate remained at the
series' low of 3.3% with the actual number of separations off 11.2%
year-to-year. Separations include quits, layoffs, discharges,
and other separations as well as retirements.
The JOLTS survey dates only to December 2000 but has followed
the movement in nonfarm payrolls, though the actual correlation between
the two series is low.
A description of the Jolts survey and the latest release from
the U.S. Department of Labor is available <a href="http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/jolts.pdf">here</a>
and the figures are available in Haver's USECON
database.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead><tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@EB/@EB14/@EB14.HTM" style="color: white;">JOLTS (Job Openings &amp; Labor
&nbsp;Turnover Survey)</a> </th>
<th scope="col">September</th>
<th scope="col">August</th>
<th scope="col">Sept. '08</th>
<th scope="col">2008</th>
<th scope="col">2007</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="even">
<td colspan="7">Job Openings, Total&nbsp;&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Rate (%)</td>
<td>1.9</td>
<td>1.8</td>
<td>2.4</td>
<td>2.3</td>
<td>3.1</td>
<td>3.3</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Total (000s)</td>
<td>2,480</td>
<td>2,423</td>
<td>3,346</td>
<td>3,224</td>
<td>4,382</td>
<td>4,606</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td colspan="7">Hires, Total</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Rate (%)</td>
<td>3.1</td>
<td>3.1</td>
<td>3.3</td>
<td>41.1</td>
<td>46.1</td>
<td>47.6</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Total (000s)</td>
<td>4,010</td>
<td>4,040</td>
<td>4,505</td>
<td>56,486</td>
<td>63,666</td>
<td>64,879</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Japan Machinery Orders Dig Out 
by <a href="/comment/Brusca.html">Robert
Brusca</a> November 11, 2009


<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/091111g.jpg" align="left" border="0" height="265" width="353">
Japan&#8217;s machinery orders rose by 6% in September. Core
machinery orders spurted by 10.5%. Foreign demand is the whole of the
pickup as domestic orders fell by 5.4% while foreign orders rose by
25.9% both in September.
The three month metrics show that core orders are still not
out of the woods; their three month growth rate is just 2.9% annualized
the same as their six month growth rate. Still these two horizon growth
rates are better than the -21.8% Year-over-year performance. Core
machinery orders are no longer falling but they are not rising very
rapidly.
The same sort of shortfalls exist across countries
Moreover Japan like Germany is benefiting from external
growth. Over three months, foreign demand is up at a 180% annual rate
that is an acceleration from a 60.4% annual rate over six months and
those numbers reverse the 42% drop in foreign demand Yr/Yr. Still,
domestic demand is wanting. Over three months it is up at a 19.9% pace,
better than the -1% rate over six months, and that is an improvement
from the drop of 14.9% Yr/Yr.
On balance Japan&#8217;s orders are on the mend. Even domestic
orders are showing a push into positive territory. But these series are
very volatile and given the volatility the recent domestic growth
figures are not very impressive. Much more impressive is the growth in
foreign orders that seems to be jumpstarting Japan as a whole. 

As the global economy turns to recovery one key challenge is
going to be to see if surplus and deficit countries begin to make
adjustments. Note that Japan and Germany, traditional exporting powers,
continue to get a lot of their stimulus from overseas. China&#8217;s trade
surplus was up this month. How is the US going to keep the lid on its
deficit if everyone else is running surpluses? Large structural trade
imbalances and the persisting investment flows they imply was one of
the main sources of instability in this past cycle. Is anything going
to change?

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup></colgroup>
<thead><tr>
<th scope="col" colspan="8">Japan
Machinery Orders</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="even">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;</td>
<td colspan="3">m/m %</td>
<td colspan="4">Saar %</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">SA</td>
<td>Sep-09</td>
<td>Aug-09</td>
<td>Jul-09</td>
<td>3-Mos</td>
<td>6-Mos</td>
<td>12-Mos</td>
<td>12-Mo Ago</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Total</td>
<td>6.0%</td>
<td>-1.9%</td>
<td>7.5%</td>
<td>56.1%</td>
<td>2.6%</td>
<td>-26.5%</td>
<td>-2.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Core Orders*</td>
<td>10.5%</td>
<td>0.5%</td>
<td>-9.3%</td>
<td>2.9%</td>
<td>2.8%</td>
<td>-21.8%</td>
<td>-3.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td colspan="8" class="firstcol">Total
Orders</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Foreign Demand</td>
<td>25.9%</td>
<td>-15.7%</td>
<td>21.8%</td>
<td>180.0%</td>
<td>60.4%</td>
<td>-42.2%</td>
<td>-3.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Domestic demand</td>
<td>-5.4%</td>
<td>7.1%</td>
<td>3.4%</td>
<td>19.9%</td>
<td>-1.0%</td>
<td>-14.9%</td>
<td>-2.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td colspan="8" class="firstcol">* Excl ships
and electric power</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body></html>

Weekly Chain Store Sales SlipFollowing Several Lackluster Weeks

<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.01 Transitional//EN">
<html><head>
<style>
.odd{
background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style>
</head>
<body>
 


<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/091110g.jpg" align="right" border="0" height="265" width="353">
There's
little to suggest that current inflation is a problem for the U.S.
economy as consumer &amp; producer prices remain weak.
Nevertheless, market signals suggest a future problem may be
developing. Higher gold prices are one of the more visible indicators
of pending inflationary power with its rise yesterday to an all-time
high of $1,107 per ounce. That strength has been accompanied by a drop
in the trade-weighted value of the U.S. dollar to its lowest level
since the summer of last year.U.S. monetary &amp; fiscal
stimulus has done much to generate this inflationary scenario. Low
interest rates and the propping up of the banking system have combined
to generate an excessive 60% y/y rise in the monetary base and 12% y/y
growth in the money supply (M1). Fiscal stimulus is more-than-evident
in the budget deficit which ballooned last year to $680 billion and is
projected by OMB to be around $1 trillion for the next ten years. Of
course, monetization of this deficit is the
worry.<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/091110h.jpg" align="right" border="0" height="265" width="353">
The end of the U.S. recession
and of the recessions abroad have given rise to energy prices which
potentially could fuel higher inflation. Though they are down slightly
from the early-October high, crude oil prices at
an average $79.43 per barrel yesterday were up sharply from the
December low of $32.37. For all of last week the spot market price for
light sweet crude oil averaged $79.04 per barrel.Consumers have seen
this pricing strength, and worries abound. The pump price for
regular gasoline slipped last week to $2.67 per gallon which
was slightly below the June high. However, prices remain up from the
December low of $1.61 and this week the wholesale gasoline price
remained firm at $1.97. Though gas prices were down slightly from the
October high of $2.10, worries abound about the future for pricing
power. <img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/091110i.jpg" align="right" border="0" height="265" width="353">
The expected rate of inflation for the next year has risen to
3.2%, roughly double the December low according to the University of
Michigan's survey. Finally, higher gasoline prices have prompted a
cutback in driving. Following earlier strength, the demand for motor
gasoline fell slightly last week from one year earlier. The energy
price figures are reported by the U.S. Department of Energy and can be
found in Haver's WEEKLY &amp; DAILY databases.
The gasoline demand figures are in OILWKLY.
Natural gas prices also have strengthened ahead of the winter heating
season. They slipped last week to an average of $4.27 per mmbtu (-36.6%
y/y). Though they remained down by two-thirds from the high of
$13.19/mmbtu reached in early-July of last year, they are more than
double the low reached early last month.&nbsp; A bit of good news
for the pricing outlook occurred yesterday. Prices natural gas slipped
further to $3.87/mmbtu. 
<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead><tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/WEEKLY/@W4/@W4.HTM" style="color: black;">Weekly Prices</a></th>
<th scope="col">11/09/09</th>
<th scope="col">10/19/09</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2008</th>
<th scope="col">2007</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Retail Regular Gasoline ($ per
Gallon, Regular)</td>
<td>2.67</td>
<td>2.69</td>
<td>19.9%</td>
<td>3.25</td>
<td>2.80</td>
<td>2.57</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Light Sweet Crude Oil,
WTI&nbsp; ($ per bbl.)</td>
<td>79.04</td>
<td>78.51</td>
<td>22.9%</td>
<td>100.16</td>
<td>72.25</td>
<td>66.12</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body></html>

There's little to suggest that current inflation is a problem for the U.S. economy as consumer & producer prices remain weak. Nevertheless, market signals suggest a future problem may be developing. Higher gold prices are one of the [...]

Inflationary Signals Abound;Gold & Oil Prices Strengthen While Dollar Weakens

Louise Curley

<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.01 Transitional//EN">
<html><head>
<style>
.odd{
background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style>
</head>
<body>
 




<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/091110d.jpg" align="right" border="0" height="265" width="353">The
ZEW measure of confidence among German institutional investors and
analysts in the macroeconomic outlook six months ahead declined in
November to 51.1 from 56.0 in October.&nbsp; While the extent of
the decline was greater than expected, the optimists on the outlook
still outweigh the pessimists by 51.1%.&nbsp; A year ago the
pessimists outweighed the optimists by 53.5%.&nbsp; Moreover, the
current reading is well above the long term average of
26.9%.
<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/091110e.jpg" align="right" border="0" height="265" width="353">Although
there has been some improvement in the
appraisal of current conditions, the majority of investors and analysts
still view current conditions negatively.&nbsp; The excess of
pessimists over optimists among the respondents declined to 65.6% in
November from 72.2% in October.&nbsp; The first chart shows the two
indicators:&nbsp; the macroeconomic outlook and current
conditions.
<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/091110f.jpg" align="right" border="0" height="265" width="353">Some of
the reasons why the respondents have
become more cautious about the outlook&nbsp; may be found in their
appraisal of the profit prospects in the thirteen industries regularly
canvassed.&nbsp; In November, the respondents expected declines in
profits in seven of the industries and increases in six.&nbsp;
Declines in profits are expected in Banking, Insurance, Steel and
Metal, Consumption/Trade, Utilities, Telecommunication and Information
Technology.&nbsp; Increases in profits are expected in
Vehicles/Automotive, Chemicals/Pharmaceuticals, Electronics, Machinery,
Construction and Services.&nbsp; Selected industries where profits
are expected to decline are shown in the second chart and selected
industries where profits are expected to increase are shown in the
third chart.&nbsp; Profit expectations in the Banking and Insurance
industries have been declining since August and appear to have had the
biggest negative reappraisal.
<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead><tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">ZEW
INDICATORS (% Bal.)</th>
<th scope="col">Nov 09</th>
<th scope="col">Oct 09</th>
<th scope="col">Nov 08</th>
<th scope="col">M/M Chg</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y Chg</th>
<th scope="col">2008</th>
<th scope="col">2007</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Macroeconomic Expectations 6
Months Ahead</td>
<td>51.1</td>
<td>56.0</td>
<td>-53.5</td>
<td>-4.9</td>
<td>104.6</td>
<td>-47.5</td>
<td>-3.0</td>
<td>22.3</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Current Conditions</td>
<td>-65.6</td>
<td>-72.2</td>
<td>-50.5</td>
<td>6.6</td>
<td>-15.2</td>
<td>7.3</td>
<td>75.9</td>
<td>18.3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td colspan="9">PROFIT EXPECTATIONS</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Banking</td>
<td>24.7</td>
<td>31.1</td>
<td>-64.9</td>
<td>-9.4</td>
<td>89.6</td>
<td>-59.5</td>
<td>-3.5</td>
<td>47.7</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Insurance</td>
<td>16.4</td>
<td>19.8</td>
<td>-70.1</td>
<td>-3.4</td>
<td>86.5</td>
<td>-45.4</td>
<td>9.7</td>
<td>46.0</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Chemicals/Pharmaceuticals</td>
<td>34.8</td>
<td>31.6</td>
<td>-41.6</td>
<td>3.2</td>
<td>76.4</td>
<td>-8.6</td>
<td>35.3</td>
<td>48.3</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Vehicles/Automotive</td>
<td>-33.9</td>
<td>-40.9</td>
<td>-94.2</td>
<td>7.0</td>
<td>60.7</td>
<td>-55.6</td>
<td>8.6</td>
<td>16.9</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>

</body></html>

The ZEW measure of confidence among German institutional investors and analysts in the macroeconomic outlook six months ahead declined in November to 51.1 from 56.0 in October. While the extent of the decline was greater than [...]

Inflationary Signals Abound;Gold& Oil Prices Strengthen While Dollar Weakens

<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.01 Transitional//EN">
<html><head>
<style>
.odd{
background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style>
</head>
<body>
 




<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/091110a.jpg" align="right" border="0" height="265" width="353">Small
business' optimism recently recovered from its recession low, but the
latest readings indicate further, modest upside movement. The National
Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) indicated that their small
business optimism index rose to 89.1 during October, the third
consecutive monthly gain. The latest level was the highest since
September '08.&nbsp;During the last ten years, there has been an
85% correlation between the level of the NFIB index and the two-quarter
change in real GDP.<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/091110b.jpg" align="right" border="0" height="265" width="353">
The percentage of small businesses expecting the
economy to improve bounced back after earlier weakness to 11, the
highest since May. The percentage which thought that now was a good
time to expand the business slipped m/m to a still-improved 7, near the
highest level this year. Moreover, the percent reporting higher
net-earnings this quarter versus last year held at -40 m/m for the
third month, meaning fewer were reporting negative earnings versus last
year. It was the highest level since November. Tight credit conditions
continued as 14% of firms indicated that it was harder to get credit.
That was near the 1981 high of 15%. Perhaps because of these tight
conditions, the recent improvement in business' sentiment has done
little, if anything, to improve hiring intentions. The percentage of
firms planning to raise employment remained in the net-layoff region
and the percentage of firms with one or more job openings held at just
8% during October, the lowest level since 1982. During the last ten
years there has been a 74% correlation between the NFIB employment
percentage and the six-month change in nonfarm payrolls. Also to the
downside, the percentage expecting credit conditions to ease slipped
back to the February low. <img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/091110c.jpg" align="right" border="0" height="265" width="353">
Pricing conditions eased. The percentage of
firms actually raising prices improved to -17
(indicating deflation) and remained just above the record low. During
the last ten years there has been a 69% correlation between the
six-month change in the producer price index and the level of the NFIB
price index.&nbsp;The percentage of firms planning
to raise prices gave back the prior two months' improvement and fell to
a net 6, though that remained up from the March low of zero. Worker
compensation fell back to near its recent series' low.· The largest,
single most important problems seen by business were poor sales (33%),
taxes (22%, near the highest level since 2007), government requirements
(11%), insurance cost &amp; availability (8%), competition from
large businesses (6%) and inflation (2%).About 24 million
small businesses exist in the United States. Small business creates 80%
of all new jobs in America and the NFIB figures can be found in Haver's
SURVEYS database.Financial
Regulation: Past and Future is the title of yesterday's
speech by Fed Governor Daniel K. Tarullo and it can be found here <a href="http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/tarullo20091109a.htm">here</a>.
<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead><tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/SURVEYS/@S7/@S7.HTM">Nat'l
Federation of Independent Business</a></th>
<th scope="col">October</th>
<th scope="col">September</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2008</th>
<th scope="col">2007</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Small Business Optimism Index
(SA, 1986=100)</td>
<td>89.1</td>
<td>88.8</td>
<td>1.8%</td>
<td>89.8</td>
<td>96.7</td>
<td>98.9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Percent of Firms
Expecting Economic Improvement</td>
<td>11</td>
<td>8</td>
<td>-4</td>
<td>-10</td>
<td>-4</td>
<td>-1</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Percent of Firms
With One or More Job Openings</td>
<td>8</td>
<td>8</td>
<td>14</td>
<td>18</td>
<td>24</td>
<td>25</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Percent of Firms
Raising Avg. Selling Pric1es (Net)</td>
<td>-17</td>
<td>-21</td>
<td>15</td>
<td>17</td>
<td>15</td>
<td>20</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body></html>

Small business' optimism recently recovered from its recession low, but the latest readings indicate further, modest upside movement. The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) indicated that their small business optimism [...]

U.S. Small Business Optimism Improves But Credit Remains Tight With Hiring Cautious

<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.01 Transitional//EN">
<html><head>
<style>
.odd{
background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style>
</head>
<body>
 




<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/091110a.jpg" align="right" border="0" height="265" width="353">Small
business' optimism recently recovered from its recession low, but the
latest readings indicate further, modest upside movement. The National
Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) indicated that their small
business optimism index rose to 89.1 during October, the third
consecutive monthly gain. The latest level was the highest since
September '08.&nbsp;During the last ten years, there has been an
85% correlation between the level of the NFIB index and the two-quarter
change in real GDP.
<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/091110b.jpg" align="right" border="0" height="265" width="353">The
percentage of small businesses expecting the
economy to improve bounced back after earlier weakness to 11, the
highest since May. The percentage which thought that now was a good
time to expand the business slipped m/m to a still-improved 7, near the
highest level this year. Moreover, the percent reporting higher
net-earnings this quarter versus last year held at -40 m/m for the
third month, meaning fewer were reporting negative earnings versus last
year. It was the highest level since November.
 Tight credit conditions
continued as 14% of firms indicated that it was harder to get credit.
That was near the 1981 high of 15%. Perhaps because of these tight
conditions, the recent improvement in business' sentiment has done
little, if anything, to improve hiring intentions. The percentage of
firms planning to raise employment remained in the net-layoff region
and the percentage of firms with one or more job openings held at just
8% during October, the lowest level since 1982. During the last ten
years there has been a 74% correlation between the NFIB employment
percentage and the six-month change in nonfarm payrolls. Also to the
downside, the percentage expecting credit conditions to ease slipped
back to the February low. 
<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/091110c.jpg" align="right" border="0" height="265" width="353">Pricing
conditions eased. The percentage of
firms actually raising prices improved to -17
(indicating deflation) and remained just above the record low. During
the last ten years there has been a 69% correlation between the
six-month change in the producer price index and the level of the NFIB
price index.&nbsp;The percentage of firms planning
to raise prices gave back the prior two months' improvement and fell to
a net 6, though that remained up from the March low of zero. Worker
compensation fell back to near its recent series' low.· The largest,
single most important problems seen by business were poor sales (33%),
taxes (22%, near the highest level since 2007), government requirements
(11%), insurance cost &amp; availability (8%), competition from
large businesses (6%) and inflation (2%).
About 24 million
small businesses exist in the United States. Small business creates 80%
of all new jobs in America and the NFIB figures can be found in Haver's
SURVEYS database.
Financial
Regulation: Past and Future is the title of yesterday's
speech by Fed Governor Daniel K. Tarullo and it can be found here <a href="http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/tarullo20091109a.htm">here</a>.
<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead><tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/SURVEYS/@S7/@S7.HTM">Nat'l
Federation of Independent Business</a></th>
<th scope="col">October</th>
<th scope="col">September</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2008</th>
<th scope="col">2007</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Small Business Optimism Index
(SA, 1986=100)</td>
<td>89.1</td>
<td>88.8</td>
<td>1.8%</td>
<td>89.8</td>
<td>96.7</td>
<td>98.9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Percent of Firms
Expecting Economic Improvement</td>
<td>11</td>
<td>8</td>
<td>-4</td>
<td>-10</td>
<td>-4</td>
<td>-1</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Percent of Firms
With One or More Job Openings</td>
<td>8</td>
<td>8</td>
<td>14</td>
<td>18</td>
<td>24</td>
<td>25</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Percent of Firms
Raising Avg. Selling Pric1es (Net)</td>
<td>-17</td>
<td>-21</td>
<td>15</td>
<td>17</td>
<td>15</td>
<td>20</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>

 Inflationary
Signals Abound;Gold&amp; Oil Prices Strengthen While Dollar Weakens
 
by <a href="/comment/Curley.html">Louise
Curley</a> November 10, 2009



<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/091110d.jpg" align="right" border="0" height="265" width="353">The
ZEW measure of confidence among German institutional investors and
analysts in the macroeconomic outlook six months ahead declined in
November to 51.1 from 56.0 in October.&nbsp; While the extent of
the decline was greater than expected, the optimists on the outlook
still outweigh the pessimists by 51.1%.&nbsp; A year ago the
pessimists outweighed the optimists by 53.5%.&nbsp; Moreover, the
current reading is well above the long term average of
26.9%.
<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/091110e.jpg" align="right" border="0" height="265" width="353">Although
there has been some improvement in the
appraisal of current conditions, the majority of investors and analysts
still view current conditions negatively.&nbsp; The excess of
pessimists over optimists among the respondents declined to 65.6% in
November from 72.2% in October.&nbsp; The first chart shows the two
indicators:&nbsp; the macroeconomic outlook and current
conditions.
<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/091110f.jpg" align="right" border="0" height="265" width="353">Some of
the reasons why the respondents have
become more cautious about the outlook&nbsp; may be found in their
appraisal of the profit prospects in the thirteen industries regularly
canvassed.&nbsp; In November, the respondents expected declines in
profits in seven of the industries and increases in six.&nbsp;
Declines in profits are expected in Banking, Insurance, Steel and
Metal, Consumption/Trade, Utilities, Telecommunication and Information
Technology.&nbsp; Increases in profits are expected in
Vehicles/Automotive, Chemicals/Pharmaceuticals, Electronics, Machinery,
Construction and Services.&nbsp; Selected industries where profits
are expected to decline are shown in the second chart and selected
industries where profits are expected to increase are shown in the
third chart.&nbsp; Profit expectations in the Banking and Insurance
industries have been declining since August and appear to have had the
biggest negative reappraisal.
<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead><tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">ZEW
INDICATORS (% Bal.)</th>
<th scope="col">Nov 09</th>
<th scope="col">Oct 09</th>
<th scope="col">Nov 08</th>
<th scope="col">M/M Chg</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y Chg</th>
<th scope="col">2008</th>
<th scope="col">2007</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Macroeconomic Expectations 6
Months Ahead</td>
<td>51.1</td>
<td>56.0</td>
<td>-53.5</td>
<td>-4.9</td>
<td>104.6</td>
<td>-47.5</td>
<td>-3.0</td>
<td>22.3</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Current Conditions</td>
<td>-65.6</td>
<td>-72.2</td>
<td>-50.5</td>
<td>6.6</td>
<td>-15.2</td>
<td>7.3</td>
<td>75.9</td>
<td>18.3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td colspan="9">PROFIT EXPECTATIONS</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Banking</td>
<td>24.7</td>
<td>31.1</td>
<td>-64.9</td>
<td>-9.4</td>
<td>89.6</td>
<td>-59.5</td>
<td>-3.5</td>
<td>47.7</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Insurance</td>
<td>16.4</td>
<td>19.8</td>
<td>-70.1</td>
<td>-3.4</td>
<td>86.5</td>
<td>-45.4</td>
<td>9.7</td>
<td>46.0</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Chemicals/Pharmaceuticals</td>
<td>34.8</td>
<td>31.6</td>
<td>-41.6</td>
<td>3.2</td>
<td>76.4</td>
<td>-8.6</td>
<td>35.3</td>
<td>48.3</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Vehicles/Automotive</td>
<td>-33.9</td>
<td>-40.9</td>
<td>-94.2</td>
<td>7.0</td>
<td>60.7</td>
<td>-55.6</td>
<td>8.6</td>
<td>16.9</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>

 Inflationary Signals Abound;Gold
&amp; Oil Prices Strengthen While Dollar Weakens 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom
Moeller</a> November 10, 2009


<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/091110g.jpg" align="right" border="0" height="265" width="353">
There's
little to suggest that current inflation is a problem for the U.S.
economy as consumer &amp; producer prices remain weak.
Nevertheless, market signals suggest a future problem may be
developing. Higher gold prices are one of the more visible indicators
of pending inflationary power with its rise yesterday to an all-time
high of $1,107 per ounce. That strength has been accompanied by a drop
in the trade-weighted value of the U.S. dollar to its lowest level
since the summer of last year.
U.S. monetary &amp; fiscal
stimulus has done much to generate this inflationary scenario. Low
interest rates and the propping up of the banking system have combined
to generate an excessive 60% y/y rise in the monetary base and 12% y/y
growth in the money supply (M1). Fiscal stimulus is more-than-evident
in the budget deficit which ballooned last year to $680 billion and is
projected by OMB to be around $1 trillion for the next ten years. Of
course, monetization of this deficit is the
worry.
<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/091110h.jpg" align="right" border="0" height="265" width="353">The end of
the U.S. recession
and of the recessions abroad have given rise to energy prices which
potentially could fuel higher inflation. Though they are down slightly
from the early-October high, crude oil prices at
an average $79.43 per barrel yesterday were up sharply from the
December low of $32.37. For all of last week the spot market price for
light sweet crude oil averaged $79.04 per barrel.
Consumers have seen
this pricing strength, and worries abound. The pump price for
regular gasoline slipped last week to $2.67 per gallon which
was slightly below the June high. However, prices remain up from the
December low of $1.61 and this week the wholesale gasoline price
remained firm at $1.97. Though gas prices were down slightly from the
October high of $2.10, worries abound about the future for pricing
power. <img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/091110i.jpg" align="right" border="0" height="265" width="353">
The expected rate of inflation for the next year has risen to
3.2%, roughly double the December low according to the University of
Michigan's survey. Finally, higher gasoline prices have prompted a
cutback in driving. Following earlier strength, the demand for motor
gasoline fell slightly last week from one year earlier. The energy
price figures are reported by the U.S. Department of Energy and can be
found in Haver's WEEKLY &amp; DAILY databases.
The gasoline demand figures are in OILWKLY.
Natural gas prices also have strengthened ahead of the winter
heating
season. They slipped last week to an average of $4.27 per mmbtu (-36.6%
y/y). Though they remained down by two-thirds from the high of
$13.19/mmbtu reached in early-July of last year, they are more than
double the low reached early last month.&nbsp; A bit of good news
for the pricing outlook occurred yesterday. Prices natural gas slipped
further to $3.87/mmbtu. 
<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead><tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/WEEKLY/@W4/@W4.HTM" style="color: black;">Weekly Prices</a></th>
<th scope="col">11/09/09</th>
<th scope="col">10/19/09</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2008</th>
<th scope="col">2007</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Retail Regular Gasoline ($ per
Gallon, Regular)</td>
<td>2.67</td>
<td>2.69</td>
<td>19.9%</td>
<td>3.25</td>
<td>2.80</td>
<td>2.57</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Light Sweet Crude Oil,
WTI&nbsp; ($ per bbl.)</td>
<td>79.04</td>
<td>78.51</td>
<td>22.9%</td>
<td>100.16</td>
<td>72.25</td>
<td>66.12</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>

</body></html>

U.S. Small Business OptimismImproves But Credit Remains Tight With Hiring Cautious

<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.01 Transitional//EN">
<html><head>
<style>
.odd{
background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style>
</head>
<body>
 




<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/091109d.jpg" align="right" border="0" height="265" width="353">In the news
today are reports of French business sentiment and industrial
production in Germany, Romania, Slovakia and Turkey.
 French business
sentiment continues to improve.&nbsp;&nbsp; From the low point
of 66.96 reached in December of last year, the Bank of France's
Business Sentiment Indicator has risen in each subsequent month and in
October was up to 94.80, just 5.20 points below 100, its long term
average.&nbsp; An important factor in the improvement in sentiment
has been the increase in new orders--the total and foreign.&nbsp;
The first chart shows the percent balances between those experiencing
an increase in total and foreign new orders over those experiencing a
decline.&nbsp; <img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/091109e.jpg" align="right" border="0" height="265" width="353">
In October, the excess of those experiencing an
increase in foreign new orders over those experiencing a decline was
4.85%, while the excess for total orders was 10.9% as shown in the
first chart.
The most
important report on industrial production
released today is that for Germany and it is encouraging.&nbsp;
Industrial production in Germany is up for the second month. While
developments in Germany, as the largest economy in Europe, overshadow
those in the smaller and less developed economies of Eastern Europe and
the Middle East, it is encouraging to see that the representatives of
the latter groups in today's news are making strong percentage gains in
industrial production.&nbsp; <img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/091109f.jpg" align="right" border="0" height="265" width="353">
The month to month changes in
production in the emerging countries tend to be volatile even on a
seasonally adjusted basis.&nbsp; The&nbsp; picture becomes
clearer when we aggregate the date on a quarterly basis as can be seen
in a comparison of the second and third
charts.
<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead><tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">Oct 09</th>
<th scope="col">Sep 09</th>
<th scope="col">Oct 08</th>
<th scope="col">M/M CHG</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y CHG</th>
<th scope="col">2008&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">2007 </th>
<th scope="col"> 2006 </th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">French Business Sentiment
Indicator&nbsp; (LTA=100)</td>
<td>94.8</td>
<td>90.2</td>
<td>78.0</td>
<td>2.1</td>
<td>26.6</td>
<td>90.6</td>
<td>107</td>
<td>105.9</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Total New Orders % balance</td>
<td>10.90</td>
<td>-1.54</td>
<td>-35.51</td>
<td>12.44</td>
<td>46.41</td>
<td>-9.18</td>
<td>10.84</td>
<td>12.28</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Foreign New Order % balance</td>
<td>4.78</td>
<td>1.21</td>
<td>-33.48</td>
<td>3.57</td>
<td>38.26</td>
<td>-10.04</td>
<td>11.15</td>
<td>12.59</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Industrial Production (2005=100)</td>
<td>Sep 09</td>
<td>Aug 09</td>
<td>Sep 08</td>
<td>M/M CHG</td>
<td>Y/Y CHG</td>
<td>2008&nbsp;</td>
<td>2007 </td>
<td> 2006 </td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Germany</td>
<td>97.0</td>
<td>-4.6</td>
<td>111.5</td>
<td>2.75</td>
<td>-12.83</td>
<td>111.5</td>
<td>111.6</td>
<td>105.4</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Romania</td>
<td>118.4</td>
<td>116.8</td>
<td>123.3</td>
<td>1.37</td>
<td>-3.97</td>
<td>123.5</td>
<td>120.6</td>
<td>109.6</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Slovakia</td>
<td>127.7</td>
<td>121.1</td>
<td>135.3</td>
<td>5.15</td>
<td>-5.62</td>
<td>134.1</td>
<td>130.4</td>
<td>112.1</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Turkey</td>
<td>101.2</td>
<td>106.3</td>
<td>110.3</td>
<td>-4.80</td>
<td>-8.25</td>
<td>114.3</td>
<td>115.3</td>
<td>107.8</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>

</body></html>

In the news today are reports of French business sentiment and industrial production in Germany, Romania, Slovakia and Turkey. French business sentiment continues to improve. From the low point of 66.96 reached in December of last [...]

Improved Business Sentiment In France,Industrial Production Increases In Germany, Romania And Slovakia Falters In Turkey

<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.01 Transitional//EN">
<html><head>
<style>
.odd{
background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style>
</head>
<body>
 




<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/091109a.jpg" align="right" border="0" height="265" width="353">Consumers
continue to deleverage as the prospects for employment remain
uncertain. The Federal Reserve reported late Friday that consumer
credit outstanding fell for the eighth consecutive month during
September. It also was the twelfth monthly decline since summer, 2008.
The $14.9B drop from August followed declines during the prior two
months which were revised shallower, but the y/y change amounted to a
record 4.8% drop.&nbsp; With these declines, consumers have reduced
credit outstanding as a percentage of disposable income to 22.6% from
its 2005 high of 24.4%. This compares to the low near 16% in the
early-1990s.<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/091109b.jpg" align="right" border="0" height="265" width="353">
Usage of non-revolving credit (autos &amp;
other consumer durables), which accounts for nearly two-thirds of the
total, fell $4.9B after a slight August increase. The 2.3% y/y decline
was a record. Consumers continued also to cut back on revolving credit
usage. During September it fell a near-record $9.9B for the twelfth
consecutive monthly drop. Year-to-year the 8.8% decline is by far the
record as consumers continued to shy away from liberal spending.
Finance companies (-12.3% y/y), savings institutions (-9.8% y/y),
nonfinancial businesses (-6.4%) and commercial banks (-1.5% y/y have
seen the largest pullbacks in credit extension while credit unions
continue to see positive growth (1.9% y/y). <img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/091109c.jpg" align="right" border="0" height="265" width="353">
The Federal government and
Sallie Mae also continued to lend during September and raised credit
outstanding by 23.9% y/y which was the strongest growth rate since
early-2001.· These figures are the major input to the Fed's quarterly
Flow of Funds accounts for the household sector. Credit data are
available in Haver's USECON database. The Flow of
Funds data are in Haver's FFUNDS database.Monetary
Policy Stance: The View From Consumption Spending from the
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis is available <a href="http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/es/09/ES0941.pdf">
here</a>&nbsp;
<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead><tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">Consumer
Credit Outstanding (m/m Chg, SAAR)</th>
<th scope="col">September</th>
<th scope="col">August</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2008</th>
<th scope="col">2007</th>
<th scope="col">2006&nbsp;</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Total</td>
<td>$-14.8B</td>
<td>&nbsp;$-9.9B</td>
<td>-4.8%</td>
<td>1.6%</td>
<td>5.6%</td>
<td>4.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Revolving</td>
<td>$-9.9B</td>
<td>$-10.1B</td>
<td>-8.8%</td>
<td>1.9%</td>
<td>7.8%</td>
<td>5.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Non-revolving</td>
<td>$-4.9B</td>
<td>$0.2B</td>
<td>-2.3%</td>
<td>1.4%</td>
<td>4.4%</td>
<td>3.6%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body></html>

Consumers continue to deleverage as the prospects for employment remain uncertain. The Federal Reserve reported late Friday that consumer credit outstanding fell for the eighth consecutive month during September. It also was the [...]

U.S. Consumer Credit Outstanding Continues To Fall

USD/EUR exchange rate uncoupling from interest rate differential

Widespread downgrading of 2025 GDP outlook

Trade and fiscal policy uncertainty has exploded with the new administration

Much lower US electricity costs gives it a competitive advantage

Wage growth slowing in the US and Euro area; elevated and sticky in the UK

Stagflation-lite: Blue Chip forecasts below-trend growth and elevated inflation

US policy gyrations boosting policy uncertainty worldwide

Expected tariff hikes have boosted inflation expectations

US and Japan ended 2024 on solid ground in contrast to Europe

US economy expected to outperform other major economies in 2025

Only modest evidence of AI-related surge in US productivity growth

Previous Trump tariffs fading. A boost from new tariffs ahead?

Heavy US manufacturing states underperforming while Sun Belt states outperforming

Rising long-term yields a global phenomenon

US financial market concerns shifting from growth to inflation

Economic activity is picking up in the US but remains lackluster abroad

Policy uncertainty has surged since the US national elections.

Recent turnaround in US economic surprises leading to increases in rate-cut expectations

The outlook has brightened in the US, while it has dimmed for other major economies

Headline US PCE inflation elevated by sticky services prices

US and global equity prices have recently diverged

US leading global upturn in economic surprises

Blue Chip forecasters look for further significant monetary easing apart from Japan

Recent rise in global supply chain pressures could augur a pickup in global inflation pressures

Underperforming German economy generating increased policy uncertainty relative to Europe and the US

Our global data offering is unparalleled in terms of coverage, quality, and organization. We offer 290+ databases from 2500 government and private sources, a wealth of key survey and forecast data covering the world’s economies, and a robust offering of archive databases that drive machine learning for big data applications.

Optimized for precision analytics, our data is seamlessly integrated with Microsoft Office and all leading statistical packages through our DLX® software and platform independent HaverView™ website. We further offer direct database feeds, client server or cloud-based delivery, and RESTful API.


Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

Contact us

A premier time series data platform for the global strategy, research, and quant communities. 

New York

London

Singapore

Tokyo

Economy in Brief

Viewpoints

Contact Us

Our Data

Our Products

What We Do

Our Authors

About Us

Data News

Resources

Release Calendars

Training Center

Webinars

Newsletters

Download Software

For Clients

Live Updates

250502A5.jpg

250502B5.jpg

Nonfarm payrolls increased 177,000 (1.2% y/y) during April after rising 185,000 in March, revised from 228,000, and 102,000 in February, revised from 117,000. Expectations had been for a 130,000 rise in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The latest figure left the three-month average change at 155,000 in April, down from 232,000 in January.

Average hourly earnings rose 0.2% during April after unrevised increases of 0.3% in March and 0.2% in February. Earnings growth of 3.8% y/y was below the 5.9% high in March 2022.

The unemployment rate, measured in the household survey, held m/m at an expected 4.2% in April, and compared to 4.1% in February and 4.0% in January. It reached a low of 3.4% in April 2023. The unemployment rate, including employees working part-time for economic reasons plus all marginally-attached workers, eased to 7.8% in April from 7.9% in March.

In the **establishment survey**, private-sector employment rose 167,000 (1.2% y/y) after a 170,000 March increase. Factory sector jobs edged 1,000 lower (-0.7% y/y) following a 3,000 gain. Construction sector employment increased 11,000 (1.7% y/y), after rising 7,000 in March.

Private service-producing sector employment increased 156,000 (1.4% y/y) in April after improving 161,000 in March. Increases varied greatly amongst service sector categories. Private education & health sector employment rose 70,000 (3.4% y/y) last month following a 74,000 March increase. Leisure & hospitality employment rose 24,000 (1.3% y/y) after a 38,000 gain. Trade, transportation & utilities rose 32,000 (0.9% y/y) in April following a 25,000 March increase. Professional & business services employment rose 17,000 (-0.1% y/y) following a 3,000 rise while temporary help employment rose 3,600 (-3.9% y/y) following a 2,700 decline. Financial activities employment improved 14,000 (1.2% y/y) after a 6,000 gain. The number of information sector jobs held steady (-0.4% y/y) last month after falling 2,000 in March.

Government sector payrolls rose 10,000 (1.3% y/y) last month after increasing 15,000 in March. The number of local government jobs increased 13,000 (1.4% y/y) following a 17,000 gain. State government employment rose 6,000 (1.8% y/y) following a 2,000 March increase but federal government payrolls fell 9,000 (-0.3% y/y), the third consecutive monthly decline.

Private-sector average hourly earnings rose 0.2% (3.8% y/y) in April after increasing 0.3% in March. Earnings in the goods-producing sector eased 0.1% (+4.0% y/y) following a 0.6% gain. Earnings in construction rose 0.3% (3.6% y/y), after a 0.2% rise but factory sector earnings declined 0.3% (+4.3% y/y) after surging 0.8% in March. In the private services-sector, earnings rose 0.2% (3.7% y/y) in April for the third straight month. Information sector pay increased 1.0% (5.2% y/y) last month after easing 0.1%, and financial activities earnings rose 0.5% (4.3% y/y) for the second straight month. Trade, transportation & utilities sector pay increased 0.4% (3.4% y/y) after 0.6%. Professional & business sector earnings increased 0.1% (4.4% y/y) after 0.2% in March. Leisure & hospitality earnings held steady (+3.8% y/y) following a 0.6% March increase.

250502C5.jpg

250502D5.jpg

The length of the average workweek held steady at 34.3 hours in April. The workweek in the goods-producing sector eased to 39.8 hours from 40.0 hours. The construction sector average workweek eased to 39.0 hours from 39.3 hours while the factory sector workweek moved lower to 40.0 hours from 40.2. The average workweek in the private service sector held at 33.2 hours. Professional & business service hours fell to 36.3 hours from 36.4 while trade, transportation & utilities hours improved to 34.3 from 34.0 hours. Private education hours rose slightly to 32.8, but leisure & hospitality held steady at 25.5 hours.

In the **household survey**, the unemployment rate held at 4.2% in April as employment rose 436,000 and the size of the labor force increased 518,000. The labor force participation rate edged up to 62.6% last month from 62.5% in March. It remained below the high of 63.3% early in 2020. The rate for teenagers declined to 36.9%. For workers aged 20-24, the rate held steady at 72.1%, up from 71.8% six months earlier. For workers aged 25-54 the rate rose to 83.6%, a five-month high. For individuals 55 and over, the rate improved to 38.4% in April.

The employment/population ratio for all workers in April rose to 60.0%. It remained below the peak reading of 61.1% in February, 2020 just prior to the pandemic.

The employment and earnings data are collected from surveys taken each month during the week containing the 12th day of the month. The labor market data are contained in Haver's **USECON** database. Detailed figures are in the **EMPL** and **LABOR** databases. The expectations figures are in the **AS1REPNA** database.

250502X5.jpg

250502F5.jpg

- Job growth spreads across most sectors.
- Earnings growth trend decelerates.
- Jobless rate holds steady.

U.S. Job Growth Is Firm in April but March Gain Is Lessened

Winnie Tapasanun

250502F32.jpg

250502G32.jpg

Total factory orders rose a slightly less-than-expected 4.3% m/m in March after rises of 0.5% in February and 1.8% in January, data from the U.S. Census Bureau showed. A 4.5% m/m March increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The March reading was the third successive monthly rise and the largest since July 2024. The year-on-year rate accelerated to 6.0% in March, the highest since November 2022, from 2.3% in February. Notably, orders for nondefense aircraft & parts soared 139.0% in March following a 7.4% drop in February and a 92.9% surge in January. Factory orders excluding defense rose 4.8% (5.9% y/y), the largest of three straight m/m/ rises, after a 0.4% February increase. Factory orders excluding the transportation sector fell 0.2% (+1.1% y/y), the first m/m fall since August, after rising 0.3% in February, January and December.

Durable goods orders jumped 9.2% (11.9% y/y) in March, the third consecutive m/m gain and the biggest since July 2024, on top of a 0.8% increase in February (matching +9.2% m/m in the advance report on April 24). The March jump reflected m/m orders increases of 27.1% (the largest m/m surge since July 2024; 31.2% y/y) in transportation equipment, 1.1% (4.9% y/y) in primary metals, 0.5% (-0.4% y/y) in furniture & related products, 0.1% (2.5% y/y) in fabricated metal products, and 0.1% (0.9% y/y) in machinery. To the downside, durable goods orders for computers & electronic products (-1.3%; +2.7% y/y) and electrical equipment, appliances & components (-1.0%; +4.2% y/y) declined m/m in March.

Nondurable goods orders, which equal nondurable goods shipments, fell 0.3% (+0.4% y/y) in March, the first m/m fall since September, after a 0.1% uptick in February. The March fall reflected m/m drops of 2.4% (-9.3% y/y) in petroleum & coal products and 0.9% (-1.2% y/y) in apparel. To the upside, the following nondurable goods shipments rose m/m in March: leather & allied products (1.5%; 8.6% y/y), beverage & tobacco products (0.7%; 5.8% y/y), paper products (0.6%; 2.3% y/y), printing (0.3%; 3.8% y/y), textile mills (0.3%; 0.8% y/y), chemical products (0.2%; 5.4% y/y), plastics & rubber products (0.2%; 0.4% y/y), food products (0.1%; 1.8% y/y), and textile products (0.1%; 2.1% y/y).

Total shipments slipped 0.1% (+2.0% y/y) in March, the first m/m easing since October, after a 0.7% increase in February. Excluding transportation, shipments were virtually unchanged m/m (+1.1% y/y) in March following six straight m/m gains. Shipments of durable goods industries inched up 0.1% (3.8% y/y) in March, the smallest of four consecutive m/m increases, after a 1.3% advance in February. This reflected m/m durable goods shipments rises of 1.2% (5.6% y/y) in primary metals, 0.9% (0.1% y/y) in furniture & related products, 0.8% (-0.2% y/y) in nonmetallic mineral products, 0.4% (0.0% y/y) in machinery, 0.3% (1.8% y/y) in fabricated metal products, 0.2% (4.5% y/y) in computers & electronic products, 0.2% (-2.1% y/y) in wood products, and 0.1% (3.0% y/y) in electrical equipment, appliances & components. In contrast, durable goods shipments for transportation equipment (-0.5%; +7.3% y/y) and miscellaneous durable goods (-0.1%; +2.9% y/y) fell m/m in March following three successive m/m increases.

Unfilled orders rose 2.0% (2.3% y/y) in March, up for the eighth month in nine, after a 0.1% uptick in February. Excluding transportation, unfilled orders dipped 0.1% (+0.7% y/y) in March, the first m/m easing since May 2024, after holding steady in February. Backlogs of durable goods rose 2.0% (2.3% y/y) in March, reflecting m/m rises of 3.1% (3.1% y/y) in transportation equipment and 0.2% (2.4% y/y) in electrical equipment, appliances & components.

Inventories edged up 0.1% (0.9% y/y) in March, the fifth straight m/m increase, after rising at the same pace in the prior two months. Excluding transportation, inventories were up 0.1% (0.5% y/y) in March, the fifth consecutive m/m rise. Durable goods inventories ticked up 0.1% (1.0% y/y) in March after holding steady in February and January; nondurable goods inventories edged up 0.1% (0.8% y/y), the fifth successive m/m increase.

The factory sector data are available in Haver’s **USECON** database. The Action Economics Forecast Survey is in the **AS1REPNA** database.

250502H32.jpg

250502I32.jpg

- March manufacturers’ new orders +4.3% m/m; +6.0% y/y, highest since Nov. ’22.
- Durable goods orders (+9.2%) jump m/m, while nondurable goods orders (-0.3%) and shipments (-0.1%) decline m/m.
- Transportation equipt. orders +27.1% m/m, w/ a 139.0% m/m surge in nondefense aircraft & parts orders.
- Unfilled orders +2.0%, the eighth m/m rise in nine months.
- Inventories +0.1%, the fifth consecutive m/m increase.

U.S. Factory Orders Increase for the Third Straight Month in March

Robert Brusca

250502E.jpg

The global manufacturing data showed broad weakening in April as conditions weakened across more than half of the contributing early reporters in the S&P survey of manufacturing. Of the 18 early reporting countries, more than half of them showed deceleration over six months and 12 months. Over three months, only 8 of 18 showed deterioration and that's about as good as it got in this report. In the current month, month-to-month changes showed more than half of the survey contributors showing weaker results than the month before. In the S&P framework, manufacturing improved month-to-month for the U.S.; however, looking at sequential averages for the U.S., U.K., European monetary union, Canada, and Japan, we see a steady weakening and results over 12 months, over six months versus 12 months, and for three months versus 6 months. The highly developed countries are not doing particularly well.

Asian economies are also showing slight deterioration but doing a little better than the developed countries in general.

Only five of the 18 reporting countries have queue percentile standings in their data back to January 2021 that are above their medians. Readings at or above the 50% mark are at or above the median standing. Canada is showing the weakest manufacturing result on record over this span, in terms of its queue percentile standing which is at 0 in the current month.

I showed the graphic for the Baltic dry goods index in this report rather than statistics on the manufacturing PMI data because the Baltic data, which reflect shipping volume for dry goods - that is excluding things like oil - is weak but it's only in the neighborhood where it's been for some time. There has been a great deal of talk about how tariffs may have impacted trade flows, expected trade flows, shipping, shipping rates, and the like. However, according to the Baltic dry goods index, there isn't much evidence that this is occurring right now and affecting the current data. That may still lie ahead but for now it's not baked in the cake.

250502.jpg

Globally Manufacturing Weakens

Andrew Cates

**China-US shipping activity** 
The economic fallout from escalating US-China trade tensions is becoming increasingly visible in the data. A clear example is the chart below, which highlights a sharp drop in vessel arrivals at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, along with a notable decline in ships waiting offshore. These trends point to a tangible weakening in bilateral trade flows, as the effects of tit-for-tat tariffs imposed by both countries begin to bite. Given the outsized role the US and China play in global commerce, this slowdown is likely to reverberate through global supply chains, weighing on trade volumes, dampening demand, and curbing economic growth worldwide.

250501Z1.jpg

**GDP growth in Q1**
Data this week showed that the US economy contracted, albeit modestly, in Q1 even as the euro area recorded a modest expansion—an unusual divergence. The contraction in US GDP can be largely attributed to a sharp increase in imports, as firms rushed to front-load purchases ahead of anticipated tariff hikes. In addition, domestic demand was subdued, with weaker contributions from both consumer spending and government consumption. This decoupling between the US and euro area economies is particularly striking given the current global focus on the US dollar. While the euro area has shown unexpected signs of resilience, the US downturn raises important questions about its underlying momentum, especially as trade dynamics and policy uncertainty continue to cloud the outlook.

250501Z2.jpg

**The US dollar versus yield differentials**
Chart 3 below illustrates a sharp breakdown in the correlation between the US-Germany 10-year yield differential and the EUR/USD exchange rate. Historically, the dollar has moved closely with interest rate spreads, as yield-seeking capital flowed into US assets. But since early 2025—and more acutely following the April tariff actions—the dollar has weakened markedly even as the yield spread has narrowed only modestly. This decoupling underscores a critical shift: capital markets are reacting not just to monetary policy, but to rising trade and geopolitical uncertainty. In other words, the exchange rate is now being driven as much by risk sentiment as by interest rate arbitrage.

250501Z3.jpg

**The US economy’s structural outperformance and the dollar**
A second dynamic, captured in the next chart, reveals a tight correlation between the US real effective exchange rate and the potential GDP growth differential between the US and euro area over the past 50-60 years. This raises the question: has dollar strength (until recently) merely been a reflection of US growth leadership—or are capital inflows themselves helping to sustain this growth outperformance? In effect, the tail may be wagging the dog. Global investors have long allocated capital to the US, attracted by its macroeconomic resilience, technological leadership, and deep, liquid financial markets. The danger now is that the US trade war may disrupt this equilibrium. A sharp or sustained reduction in capital inflows could undermine growth, weaken the dollar, and trigger broader financial instability. Moreover, reversing this dynamic is not straightforward—barring a credible structural resurgence in European (or Asian) growth, the global investment landscape remains tilted toward the US.

250501Z4.jpg

**US competitiveness versus Europe, China and Japan** 
The next chart below examines relative unit labour costs across major economies since 2011. The US and China have seen a broadly similar trajectory, with steady increases in relative cost structures, while the euro area has remained flat and Japan has seen dramatic improvement. This suggests that, from a cost competitiveness standpoint, the US is not uniquely disadvantaged vis-à-vis China. However, as we discuss further below, this parallel erosion of cost competitiveness is occurring at much higher nominal wage levels in the US, which blunts its ability to regain export share through tariff-related shifts alone. The trade war strategy—absent a corresponding improvement in productivity or structural reforms—risks imposing costs without delivering material competitiveness gains.

250501Z5.jpg

**Average wages in selected developed and developing economies**
This point is reinforced by the final chart, which shows estimates for average monthly wages across countries in 2024. US labour remains much more expensive than in peer or emerging economies. So even if China’s costs rise in tandem with the US, the global supply chain has ample alternatives. 'China plus one' strategies are accelerating, and the US remains structurally misaligned with low-cost production hubs. Tariffs aimed at reshoring supply chains are unlikely to deliver sustained gains unless accompanied by deep supply-side reforms, and risk further disincentivizing foreign direct investment if global firms perceive US trade policy as erratic or punitive.

250501Z6.jpg

Financial markets found a measure of calm this week, buoyed by some subtle shifts in tone from US policymakers. A softening in the administration’s rhetoric around trade tariffs coupled with a less confrontational stance toward Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, helped ease tensions that had roiled markets earlier in the month. Equities rebounded modestly, and volatility indicators edged lower, reflecting cautious optimism that the worst of the policy shocks may be behind us. But beneath the surface, significant downside risks persist. New shipping data point to a pronounced slowdown in US-China trade flows (chart 1), suggesting the damage from recent tariff escalations is already rippling through global supply chains. Meanwhile, incoming data for the US revealed an unexpected contraction in the economy in Q1 and further signs of weakness in the labour market (chart 2). The US dollar, in the meantime, while long supported by superior growth and yield differentials, has begun to decouple from traditional drivers (charts 3 and 4) suggesting growing pressure on capital flows. At the same time, structural imbalances are drawing renewed scrutiny: unit labour cost comparisons show the US steadily losing competitiveness (chart 5), while nominal wage disparities remain stark versus China and other Asian economies, further complicating any effort to restore trade balance without broader reforms (chart 6). In short, while markets may be drawing temporary comfort from a pause in tariff brinkmanship, the deeper economic and financial vulnerabilities exposed this month remain unresolved—and increasingly central to the global macro narrative.

<iframe style="border-radius:12px" src="https://open.spotify.com/embed/episode/3PzXXKrkHcwtOLipohEdnB?utm_source=generator" width="100%" height="152" frameBorder="0" allowfullscreen="" allow="autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; fullscreen; picture-in-picture" loading="lazy"></iframe>

Charts of the Week: Tariff Truce, Tenuous Trust

250501F20.jpg

250501G20.jpg

U.S. light vehicle sales dropped 2.9% (+6.5% y/y) to 17.31 million units (SAAR) in April after surging 10.8% to 17.82 million units in March. The retreat in April vehicle sales accompanied a 1.7% y/y rise in real disposable income through March, which compared to 2.0% growth last year.

Sales declines were broad-based last month. Light truck sales fell 1.3% (+9.9% y/y) during April to 14.34 million units (SAAR), after rising 12.4% in March. Purchases of domestically-made light trucks declined 1.2% (+11.9% y/y) to 11.02 million units, after jumping 12.5% in March. Sales of imported light trucks fell 1.8% (+4.4% y/y) to 3.32 million units, following an 11.6% March surge.

Trucks’ record 82.8% share of the light vehicle market last month compared to 81.5% in March and 80.3% in April of last year. The share averaged 80.3% during all of 2024 versus 53.3% ten years earlier.

Auto sales also declined last month, down 9.5% (-7.5%) to 2.97 million units (SAAR) following a 3.5% March rise. The decline reversed all of the increase over the prior two months. Purchases of domestically-produced cars fell 9.8% (-4.3% y/y) last month to 2.22 million units, after rising 3.8% in March. Sales of imported autos declined 9.6% (-15.7% y/y) to 0.75 million units, following a 2.5% March increase.

Imports' 23.5% share of the U.S. light vehicle market was little changed from 23.6% in March and compared to a May 2023 low of 22.9% and a high of 26.3% in November of 2023. Imports' share of the passenger car market held steady at 25.3% last month and compared to 27.7% in April of last year. It reached a high of 38.7% in September 2021. Imports' share of the light truck market eased to 23.2% last month after falling to 23.3% in March.

U.S. vehicle sales figures can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. Additional detail by manufacturer is in the I**NDUSTRY** database.

250501H20.jpg

250501I20.jpg

- Light truck sales pull back, while auto sales tumble.
- Both domestic and imported sales decline.
- Imports' market share slips further.

Economy in Brief: November 2009

Jump to: