Global| Nov 11 2009Weekly Chain Store Sales Slip Following Several Lackluster Weeks
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
It appears that consumer malaise continued early this month. During the latest week, chain store sales slipped 0.1% after having been roughly unchanged during October and down moderately in September. Nevertheless, the sharp down- [...]
It appears
that consumer malaise continued early this month. During the latest
week, chain store sales slipped 0.1% after having been roughly
unchanged during October and down moderately in September.
Nevertheless, the sharp down-trend in sales of earlier this year
appears over.
The ICSC-Goldman Sachs retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales (stores open for one year) reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.
During the last ten years there has been a 69% correlation between the year-to-year growth in chain store sales and the growth in general merchandise retail sales. The weekly figures are available in Haver's SURVEYW database.
Prospects for an improvement in sales continue to appear limited. The
leading indicator of sales has been roughly unchanged since the spring
of this year. On the other hand, a backslide in spending also seems
unlikely. The sharp declines of the leading indicator of sales from
2007 to early-2009 are over.
This composite leading economic indicator
is compiled from four series: (1) the MBA's volume index of mortgage
applications
for home purchase (2) the ABC News/Money magazine's survey of consumer
buying conditions (3) new filings for jobless benefits and (4) the
30-year government bond yield.
Employment growth: Cyclical movements or structural change from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago is available here .
The Current State of the Economy and a Look to the Future (With Reference to William ‘Sidestroke’ Miles, W. Somerset Maugham, Don Ameche and Kenneth Arrow) is the title of yesterday's speech by Dallas Fed Governor Richard W. Fisher and it can be found here
| ICSC-UBS (SA, 1977=100) | 11/07/09 | 10/31/09 | Y/Y | 2008 | 2007 | 2006 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Weekly Chain Store Sales | 490.9 | 491.3 | 2.9% | 1.4% | 2.8% | 3.3% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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