Tom Moeller

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050512c.jpg" width="353">
The Leading Index of the Major 7 OECD economies fell for the second month. The 0.6% decline in March followed a downwardly revised 0.5% drop in February and pulled the index&#39;s six month growth rate negative.
During the last ten years there has been a 69% correlation between the change in the leading index and the q/q change in the GDP Volume Index for the Big Seven countries in the OECD.
The leaders for the European Union (15 countries) declined for the fourth straight month and the six month growth rate of 0.1% was down from roughly 6% a year ago. The German leaders fell for the fifth month in the last six due to weaker new orders, a negative yield curve and a worsening business climate. The six month growth rate fell to a -1.7%. The French leaders fell for the fifth consecutive month and the six month growth went negative for the first time since May 2003 as new job vacancies remained depressed, share prices meandered and industrial sector prospects deteriorated. The Italian leaders dipped for the forth month in five. The six month growth rate of -0.6% remained negative as it has since last May due to a lower future tendency of orders books and of production.
The leading index for the US economy fell a hard 1.0% and six month growth went negative for the first time since April 2003. A negative yield curve and a deteriorating business climate indicator caused the decline. The leaders for Japan fell for the fourth straight month and six month growth was a negative 0.7% due to a tighter yield curve and fewer overtime hours worked.
The UK economic leaders slipped for the fifth consecutive month with six month growth solidly negative at -1.2% due to higher interest rates and weaker export prospects.The Canadian leaders have trended lower for a year and six month growth of -3.5% was the worst in two years. The yield curve is sharply inverted and housing starts are down.
The latest OECD Leading Indicator report can be found <a href="http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/60/47/34858128.pdf">here</a>.

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/OECDMEI/OECDMEI.HTM">OECD</a></th>
<th scope="col">March</th>
<th scope="col">Feb</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
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<td class="firstcol">Composite Leading Index&nbsp;</td>
<td>101.37</td>
<td>102.00</td>
<td>-0.6%</td>
<td>101.99</td>
<td>97.51</td>
<td>96.33</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;6 Month Growth Rate</td>
<td>-1.3%</td>
<td>-0.1%</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>3.6%</td>
<td>2.5%</td>
<td>2.3%</td>
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</tbody>
</table>
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The Leading Index of the Major 7 OECD economies fell for the second month. The 0.6% decline in March followed a downwardly revised 0.5% drop in February and pulled the index's six month growth rate negative. During the last ten years [...]

OECD Leaders Lost More Forward Momentum

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050512b.jpg" width="353">
For the third consecutive week, initial claims for unemployment insurance rose. The 4,000 increase to 340,000 was smaller than the gains during the earlier two weeks (the prior week&#39;s gain was revised slightly higher), but the latest level was 4.3% above the April average. Consensus expectations had been for 329,000 claims.
During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 75% correlation between the level of initial claims for unemployment insurance and the monthly change in payroll employment. There has been a (negative) 65% correlation with the level of continuing claims.
The four week moving average of initial claims rose to 324,000 (-4.8% y/y).
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance rose 15,000 and the prior week&#39;s gain was revised down slightly.
The insured unemployment rate held at 2.0% for the third consecutive weeks.
Self-employed immigrants: An analysis of recent data from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago can be found <a href="http://www.chicagofed.org/publications/fedletter/cflapril2005_213.pdf"> here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/WEEKLY/@W5/@W507/@W507.HTM">Unemployment Insurance (000s)</a></th>
<th scope="col">05/07/05</th>
<th scope="col">04/30/05</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
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</thead>
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<td class="firstcol">Initial Claims</td>
<td>340</td>
<td>336</td>
<td>1.2%</td>
<td>343</td>
<td>402</td>
<td>404</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Continuing Claims</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>2,598</td>
<td>-12.6%</td>
<td>2,926</td>
<td>3,531</td>
<td>3,570</td>
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For the third consecutive week, initial claims for unemployment insurance rose. The 4,000 increase to 340,000 was smaller than the gains during the earlier two weeks (the prior week's gain was revised slightly higher), but the latest [...]

Initial Claims for Jobless Insurance Up For Third Week

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050512a.jpg" width="353">
US retail sales jumped 1.4% last month following an upwardly revised 0.4% gain in March. Consensus expectations had been for a 0.7% April increase.
Excluding motor vehicles sales rose 1.1%, also twice the Consensus expectation.That followed a 0.2% March gain revised up slightly from the initial estimate of 0.1%. Nonauto retail sales less gasoline in April rose 1.0% (6.8% y/y) following a slight decline in March. Gasoline service station sales surged 1.9% (19.8% y/y).
A 1.2% (7.4% y/y) rise in building material store sales led last month&#39;s rise in spending, for the second month.
Spending on discretionary items was mixed. General merchandise store sales surged 1.5% (7.4% y/y) after falling 0.7% in March and apparel store sales recovered 2.8% (7.9% y/y) following the prior month&#39;s 2.2% decline. Furniture and electronics sales, however, fell slightly (+4.1% y/y) for the second consecutive month.
Sales of nonstore retailers (internet and catalogue) rose 0.4% (12.4% y/y) following a 1.8% March jump.

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol">&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">April</th>
<th scope="col">March</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
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<td class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/usecon/@ED/@ED04/@ED0401/@ED0401.HTM">Retail Sales &amp; Food Services</a></td>
<td>1.4%</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>8.6%</td>
<td>7.3%</td>
<td>4.3%</td>
<td>2.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Excluding Autos</td>
<td>1.1%</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>8.1%</td>
<td>8.3%</td>
<td>4.7%</td>
<td>3.3%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
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US retail sales jumped 1.4% last month following an upwardly revised 0.4% gain in March. Consensus expectations had been for a 0.7% April increase. Excluding motor vehicles sales rose 1.1%, also twice the Consensus expectation.That [...]

U.S. Retail Sales Jump

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050512a.jpg" width="353">
US retail sales jumped 1.4% last month following an upwardly revised 0.4% gain in March. Consensus expectations had been for a 0.7% April increase.
Excluding motor vehicles sales rose 1.1%, also twice the Consensus expectation.That followed a 0.2% March gain revised up slightly from the initial estimate of 0.1%. Nonauto retail sales less gasoline in April rose 1.0% (6.8% y/y) following a slight decline in March. Gasoline service station sales surged 1.9% (19.8% y/y).
A 1.2% (7.4% y/y) rise in building material store sales led last month&#39;s rise in spending, for the second month.
Spending on discretionary items was mixed. General merchandise store sales surged 1.5% (7.4% y/y) after falling 0.7% in March and apparel store sales recovered 2.8% (7.9% y/y) following the prior month&#39;s 2.2% decline. Furniture and electronics sales, however, fell slightly (+4.1% y/y) for the second consecutive month.
Sales of nonstore retailers (internet and catalogue) rose 0.4% (12.4% y/y) following a 1.8% March jump.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
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<th scope="col" class="firstcol">&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">April</th>
<th scope="col">March</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/usecon/@ED/@ED04/@ED0401/@ED0401.HTM">Retail Sales &amp; Food Services</a></td>
<td>1.4%</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>8.6%</td>
<td>7.3%</td>
<td>4.3%</td>
<td>2.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Excluding Autos</td>
<td>1.1%</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>8.1%</td>
<td>8.3%</td>
<td>4.7%</td>
<td>3.3%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Initial Claims for Jobless Insurance Up For Third Week 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> May 12, 2005


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050512b.jpg" width="353">
For the third consecutive week, initial claims for unemployment insurance rose. The 4,000 increase to 340,000 was smaller than the gains during the earlier two weeks (the prior week&#39;s gain was revised slightly higher), but the latest level was 4.3% above the April average. Consensus expectations had been for 329,000 claims.
During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 75% correlation between the level of initial claims for unemployment insurance and the monthly change in payroll employment. There has been a (negative) 65% correlation with the level of continuing claims.
The four week moving average of initial claims rose to 324,000 (-4.8% y/y).
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance rose 15,000 and the prior week&#39;s gain was revised down slightly.
The insured unemployment rate held at 2.0% for the third consecutive weeks.
Self-employed immigrants: An analysis of recent data from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago can be found <a href="http://www.chicagofed.org/publications/fedletter/cflapril2005_213.pdf"> here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/WEEKLY/@W5/@W507/@W507.HTM">Unemployment Insurance (000s)</a></th>
<th scope="col">05/07/05</th>
<th scope="col">04/30/05</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Initial Claims</td>
<td>340</td>
<td>336</td>
<td>1.2%</td>
<td>343</td>
<td>402</td>
<td>404</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Continuing Claims</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>2,598</td>
<td>-12.6%</td>
<td>2,926</td>
<td>3,531</td>
<td>3,570</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
OECD Leaders Lost More Forward Momentum 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> May 12, 2005


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050512c.jpg" width="353">
The Leading Index of the Major 7 OECD economies fell for the second month. The 0.6% decline in March followed a downwardly revised 0.5% drop in February and pulled the index&#39;s six month growth rate negative.
During the last ten years there has been a 69% correlation between the change in the leading index and the q/q change in the GDP Volume Index for the Big Seven countries in the OECD.
The leaders for the European Union (15 countries) declined for the fourth straight month and the six month growth rate of 0.1% was down from roughly 6% a year ago. The German leaders fell for the fifth month in the last six due to weaker new orders, a negative yield curve and a worsening business climate. The six month growth rate fell to a -1.7%. The French leaders fell for the fifth consecutive month and the six month growth went negative for the first time since May 2003 as new job vacancies remained depressed, share prices meandered and industrial sector prospects deteriorated. The Italian leaders dipped for the forth month in five. The six month growth rate of -0.6% remained negative as it has since last May due to a lower future tendency of orders books and of production.
The leading index for the US economy fell a hard 1.0% and six month growth went negative for the first time since April 2003. A negative yield curve and a deteriorating business climate indicator caused the decline. The leaders for Japan fell for the fourth straight month and six month growth was a negative 0.7% due to a tighter yield curve and fewer overtime hours worked.
The UK economic leaders slipped for the fifth consecutive month with six month growth solidly negative at -1.2% due to higher interest rates and weaker export prospects.The Canadian leaders have trended lower for a year and six month growth of -3.5% was the worst in two years. The yield curve is sharply inverted and housing starts are down.
The latest OECD Leading Indicator report can be found <a href="http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/60/47/34858128.pdf">here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/OECDMEI/OECDMEI.HTM">OECD</a></th>
<th scope="col">March</th>
<th scope="col">Feb</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Composite Leading Index&nbsp;</td>
<td>101.37</td>
<td>102.00</td>
<td>-0.6%</td>
<td>101.99</td>
<td>97.51</td>
<td>96.33</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;6 Month Growth Rate</td>
<td>-1.3%</td>
<td>-0.1%</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>3.6%</td>
<td>2.5%</td>
<td>2.3%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Higher Tax Receipts Lowered U.S. Budget Deficit 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> May 12, 2005


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050512d.jpg" width="353">
April tax revenues surged and reduced the U.S. federal government&#39;s budget deficit during the first seven months of FY 2005 by 16.5% versus the first the seven months of FY 2004.
Net receipts for the first seven months of FY05 jumped 13.7% y/y. Individual tax receipts surged 16.1% versus FY04 as April personal taxes rose 43.3% against April of last year. Corporate tax receipts continued up strongly. Reflecting the improved job market, employment taxes grew 6.0% versus 1.3% growth last year.
Growth in federal outlays remained about stable at 7.3% versus the first seven months of 2005. Growth in Medicare outlays was strong at 9.1% and social security outlays grew 5.5%. Veterans benefits grew 15.2% and defense spending slowed to 7.0% growth. Interest expense grew 11.1% with higher rates.

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<thead>
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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@E1/@E106/@E10602/@E10602.HTM">US Government Finance</a></th>
<th scope="col">April</th>
<th scope="col">March</th>
<th scope="col">FY &#39;05 - YTD</th>
<th scope="col">FY2004</th>
<th scope="col">FY2003</th>
<th scope="col">FY2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Budget Balance</td>
<td>$57.7B</td>
<td>$-71.2B</td>
<td>$-236.9B</td>
<td>$-412.1B</td>
<td>$-377.6B</td>
<td>$-157.8B</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Net Revenues</td>
<td>$277.6B</td>
<td>$148.7B</td>
<td>13.7%</td>
<td>5.5%</td>
<td>-3.8%</td>
<td>-6.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Net Outlays</td>
<td>$219.9B</td>
<td>$210.0B</td>
<td>7.3%</td>
<td>6.1%</td>
<td>7.4%</td>
<td>7.9%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
German Q1 Growth of 1% Boosts Euro-Zone Result to 0.5% 
by <a href="/comment/Stone.html">Carol Stone</a> May 12, 2005


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050512e.jpg" width="353">
The Euro-Zone had 0.5% GDP growth in Q1, according to the Eurostat &quot;Flash&quot; estimate released today. This produced a year-on-year result of 1.4%, moderately weaker than any quarter since Q4 2003. In these early &quot;Flash&quot; figures, no details are available by type of expenditure or industry, so there&#39;s no way to tell what factors contributed to the performance.
We do, however, know something about where the developments took place. Germany experienced a nice rebound, reaching 1.0% after two quarters of virtually no growth at all. Among other Euro-Zone countries, they join the UK with its 0.6% gain in boosting Europe&#39;s economy.
Elsewhere, results were not so attractive. Italy lost 0.5% and the Netherlands, 0.1%; Belgian GDP was unchanged. Both Italy and the Netherlands GDP also decreased year-on-year.
The Netherlands reported its expenditure breakdown; private consumption edged slightly lower, and investment contracted more sharply after a good gain in Q4. Net exports decreased. The only positive input came in inventories, which grew &#128;327 million compared to &#128;192 million in Q4.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050512f.jpg" width="353">
These data are mixed now by calculation methodology. As noted in the table below, &quot;real&quot; GDP for the overall Euro-Zone remains expressed in fixed-weights and 1995 prices; Italy&#39;s own data are also still on this basis. Germany, the UK and the Netherlands have all switched to annual chain-weighting, but Germany&#39;s reference year is 2000, the Netherlands, 1995 and the UK, 2001. Euro-Zone conventions call for all countries to switch to chain-linking by late 2006. There are also differences in the treatment of imputed charges for financial services, so-called &quot;FISIM&quot;. These are to be reconciled for the most part by the end of this year, with a few countries in 2006. Consumption and net exports will be affected. 

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/G10/G10.HTM">GDP % Changes</a></th>
<th scope="col">1 Qtr 2005</th>
<th scope="col">4 Qtr 2004</th>
<th scope="col">Year/ Year</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Euro-Zone (fixed 1995&#128;)</td>
<td>0.5</td>
<td>0.2</td>
<td>1.4</td>
<td>1.8</td>
<td>0.5</td>
<td>0.9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Germany (chain 2000&#128;)</td>
<td>1.0</td>
<td>-0.1</td>
<td>0.0</td>
<td>1.6</td>
<td>0.0</td>
<td>0.2</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Italy (fixed 1995 &#128;)</td>
<td>-0.5</td>
<td>-0.4</td>
<td>-0.2</td>
<td>1.0</td>
<td>0.4</td>
<td>0.4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Netherlands (chain 1995&#128;)</td>
<td>-0.1</td>
<td>-0.0</td>
<td>-0.3</td>
<td>1.4</td>
<td>-0.9</td>
<td>0.6</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
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Carol Stone, CBE

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050511g.jpg" width="353">
The surprising reduction in the US trade deficit for March begs for comparison with trade data reported today by other major countries. We&#39;ve highlighted here the role of energy in two oil-producing nations, the UK and Canada, along with the US. In the US, the petroleum deficit continued to widen, but modestly, while the non-petroleum deficit fell sharply in the month, as described by Tom Moeller in the Haver.com homepage commentary for today.
In the UK, the overall trade deficit decreased to &pound;4.4 billion in March from &pound;5.1 billion in February. The non-oil deficit also decreased, but just slightly, reflecting a 1.8% rise in non-oil exports after two successive monthly declines. The oil surplus in the UK is marginal, and in some months, oil even runs a small deficit. The non-oil deficit had widened fairly consistently from 1997 through the middle of last year and has since begun to diminish gradually, as import growth has tended to slow.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050511f.jpg" width="353">
Canada&#39;s trade balance was C$4.235 billion in March, up from C$4.155 billion in February. The energy surplus is drifting down a little, with the March value, C$3.4 billion, off from the 2004 average of C$3.7 billion. Exports of energy products have flattened in the last six month, but energy imports are trending upward, as seen in the second graph. The surplus in non-energy trade has fallen more distinctly with a modest slowing of those exports.
In both the US and the UK, non-energy imports have recently turned down. For the US, this is just a one-month development and could easily be reversed, but in the UK, March was the third month. Possibly the weight of energy on these economies is starting to restrain other purchasing from abroad. This is an important development to monitor.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">Millions of Local Currency, Seasonally Adjusted</th>
<th scope="col">Mar 2005</th>
<th scope="col">Feb 2005</th>
<th scope="col">Mar 2004</th>
Monthly Average
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">2004</td>
<td>2003</td>
<td>2002</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">UK: Balance on Goods</td>
<td>-4,412</td>
<td>-5,037</td>
<td>-4,108</td>
<td>-4,829</td>
<td>-3,972</td>
<td>-3,890</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Balance on Oil</td>
<td>384</td>
<td>44</td>
<td>193</td>
<td>163</td>
<td>344</td>
<td>478</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Balance ex Oil</td>
<td>-4,796</td>
<td>-5,081</td>
<td>-4,519</td>
<td>-4,992</td>
<td>-4,316</td>
<td>-4,368</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Canada: Balance on Goods</td>
<td>4,235</td>
<td>4,155</td>
<td>5,584</td>
<td>5,602</td>
<td>4,848</td>
<td>4,768</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Balance on Energy</td>
<td>3,386</td>
<td>3,053</td>
<td>3,164</td>
<td>3,693</td>
<td>3,406</td>
<td>2,738</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Balance ex Energy</td>
<td>849</td>
<td>102</td>
<td>2,420</td>
<td>1,909</td>
<td>1,442</td>
<td>2,030</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">US: Balance on Goods</td>
<td>-57,171</td>
<td>-63,538</td>
<td>-50,026</td>
<td>-54,234</td>
<td>-44,362</td>
<td>-39,022</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Balance on Petroleum</td>
<td>-16,992</td>
<td>-16,343</td>
<td>-13,013</td>
<td>-13,653</td>
<td>-10,034</td>
<td>-7,764</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Balance ex Petroleum</td>
<td>-41,179</td>
<td>-47,195</td>
<td>-37,013</td>
<td>-40,582</td>
<td>-34,329</td>
<td>-31,258</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

The surprising reduction in the US trade deficit for March begs for comparison with trade data reported today by other major countries. We've highlighted here the role of energy in two oil-producing nations, the UK and Canada, along [...]

Trade Deficit Eases in UK, Surplus Increases in Canada, but Energy May Be Starting to Restrain Demand for Non- [...]

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050511e.jpg" width="353">
Total mortgage applications jumped 9.4% last week according to the Mortgage Bankers Association and began the month 13.9% ahead of the depressed April average.
Applications to purchase a home jumped 9.1% w/w and started May 11.9% ahead of April. During the last ten years there has been a 50% correlation between the y/y change in purchase applications and the change in new plus existing single family home sales.
Applications to refinance rose 9.8%.
The effective interest rate on a conventional 30-year mortgage ticked up to 6.02% from 5.98% but remained down from the high of 6.34% in late March. The effective rate on a 15-year mortgage was 5.65%.
The Mortgage Bankers Association surveys between 20 to 35 of the top lenders in the U.S. housing industry to derive its refinance, purchase and market indexes. The weekly survey accounts for more than 40% of all applications processed each week by mortgage lenders. Visit the Mortgage Bankers Association site <a href="http://www.mbaa.org">here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/SURVEYW/@S5/@S5.HTM">MBA Mortgage Applications (3/16/90=100)</a></th>
<th scope="col">05/06/05</th>
<th scope="col">04/29/05</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Total Market Index</td>
<td>781.0</td>
<td>714.1</td>
<td>5.2%</td>
<td>735.1</td>
<td>1,067.9</td>
<td>799.7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Purchase</td>
<td>526.2</td>
<td>482.5</td>
<td>6.5%</td>
<td>454.5</td>
<td>395.1</td>
<td>354.7</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Refinancing</td>
<td>2,263.3</td>
<td>2,061.2</td>
<td>3.6%</td>
<td>2,366.8</td>
<td>4,981.8</td>
<td>3,388.0</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
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Total mortgage applications jumped 9.4% last week according to the Mortgage Bankers Association and began the month 13.9% ahead of the depressed April average. Applications to purchase a home jumped 9.1% w/w and started May 11.9% [...]

Mortgage Applications Surged as Rates Remained Low

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050511d.jpg" width="353">
The Job Openings &amp; Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) from the Bureau of Labor Statistics indicated that the job openings rate held firm at 2.6% versus an upwardly revised level in February. The job openings rate is the number of job openings on the last business day of the month as a percent of total employment plus job openings. The total number of job openings was about stable m/m but up 14.9% y/y.
The March hires rate continued the trend of improvement and rose to 3.7%. The hires rate is the number of hires during the month divided by employment.
Job separations rose and reversed most of the decline during the prior two months. The separation rate rose to 3.3%. Total separations include quits, layoffs, discharges, and other separations as well as retirements. The total separations, or turnover, rate is the total number of separations during the month divided by employment.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050511c.jpg" width="353">
The survey dates only to December 2000 but has since followed the movement in nonfarm payrolls.
A description of the Jolts survey and the latest release from the U.S. Department of Labor is available <a href="http://www.bls.gov/news.release/jolts.nr0.htm">here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@EB/@EB14/@EB14.HTM">JOLTS</a> (Job Openings &amp; Labor Turnover Survey)</th>
<th scope="col">Mar</th>
<th scope="col">Feb</th>
<th scope="col">&nbsp;Mar &#39;04</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Job Openings Rate: Total</td>
<td>2.6%</td>
<td>2.6%</td>
<td>2.3%</td>
<td>2.4%</td>
<td>2.1%</td>
<td>2.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Hires Rate: Total</td>
<td>3.7%</td>
<td>3.6%</td>
<td>3.7%</td>
<td>3.4%</td>
<td>3.2%</td>
<td>3.2%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

The Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) from the Bureau of Labor Statistics indicated that the job openings rate held firm at 2.6% versus an upwardly revised level in February. The job openings rate is the number of job [...]

JOLTS: U.S. Job Openings Firm

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050511b.jpg" width="353">
The Small Business Optimism Index reported by the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) fell another 2.6% in April and is off 7.3% from the peak last November. The decline occurred as the percentage of firms expecting the economy to improve collapsed to 5% versus 47% in November.
During the last ten years there has been a 64% correlation between the level of the NFIB index and the two quarter change in real GDP.
The job outlook brightened only slightly. The percentage of firms planning to raise employment rose one point to 11% but was half the 20% of December 2003. A brighter job market picture came from the percentage of firms with one or more job openings at 23% which was well up from the low of 15% during 2003. During the last ten years there has been a 67% correlation between hiring plans and the three month growth in nonfarm payrolls.
The percentage of firms planning to raise capital spending slid to 32%, well off from the 38% this past December.
The percentage of firms raising average selling prices slipped to 23%.
About 24 million businesses exist in the United States. Small business creates 80% of all new jobs in America.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/SURVEYS/@S7/@S7.HTM">Nat&#39;l Federation of Independent Business</a></th>
<th scope="col">April</th>
<th scope="col">Mar</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Small Business Optimism Index (1986=100)</td>
<td>99.8</td>
<td>102.5</td>
<td>-5.3%</td>
<td>104.6</td>
<td>101.3</td>
<td>101.2</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
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The Small Business Optimism Index reported by the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) fell another 2.6% in April and is off 7.3% from the peak last November. The decline occurred as the percentage of firms expecting the [...]

Small Business Optimism Down Further

Global freight costs are on the rise while supply chain pressures are contained

Accelerating positive economic surprises in the G10 are boosting the global economy

Considerably more monetary ease expected from US and UK as Japan tightens

Tighter US immigration enforcement adversely impacting labor force

Economic policy uncertainty, while still elevated, is declining

Gradual disinflation and easier monetary policies across advanced economies

Largest October layoffs since 2003, led by technology

Subdued global shipping costs not yet pointing to supply chain problems

PMIs show still-elevated but slowing US inflation

AI boosting US investment in data centers

US productivity growth has been significantly faster than in other major economies

Consumers' short-term US inflation expectations still elevated while longer-term expectations of financial markets are steady

US financial markets have gotten used to elevated policy uncertainty

FOMC now expects more rate cuts going forward than in June

China gaining ASEAN exports while US exports slump

Job openings less than the number unemployed in July for first time since 2021

Reaccelerating goods price inflation along with sticky services inflation clouds the outlook

Falling oil prices aren't pulling down inflation expectations, pointing to a boost from increased tariffs

Equity market exuberance outpacing macroeconomic data

Apart from Japan, Blue Chip forecasters expect further sizable monetary easing

US production rebounded in Q2, but demand continued to slow

US leader, Germany trailer for real GDP growth over past 3 years

Negative US inflation surprises leading G10 down

Deflation continues in China

Incoming data surprising on downside in US; positive surprises elsewhere

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Initial claims for unemployment insurance dropped 10,000 to 214,000 in the week of December 20, from 224,000 during the week of December 13. The four-week moving average of initial claims was 216,750, a decrease of 750 from the prior week’s unrevised 217,500.

Federal government employees initially filed 805 (NSA) jobless insurance claims in the week ended December 13, after filing 1091 claims in the week ended December 6.

Continuing claims for unemployment insurance rose 38,000 to 1.923 million in the week ending December 13, after rising 55,000 to 1.885 million, revised from 1.897 million in the week ending December 6. The four-week moving average was 1.894 million in the week ending December 13, down 5,250 from 1.899 million, revised from 1,902,000 in the week ending December 6. The insured unemployment rate stood at 1.3% in the week of December 13, up from 1.2% in the week of December 6.

Federal government employees’ continuing benefits claims were 12,887 (NSA) in the week ending December 6, from 14,077 (NSA) in the week of November 29. 

The insured unemployment rate varied greatly across individual states and territories. In the week ending December 6, the highest unemployment rates were in New Jersey and Washington (both 2.40%), Massachusetts and Minnesota (both 2.10%), California and Rhode Island (both 2.00%). The lowest rates were in Florida (0.30%), and Alabama, Louisiana, North Carolina (all 0.40%). Rates in other notable states include New York (1.80%), Illinois and Pennsylvania (both 1.70%), and Texas (1.10%). These state data are not seasonally adjusted.

Data on weekly unemployment claims are from the Department of Labor itself, not the Bureau of Labor Statistics. They begin in 1967 and are contained in Haver’s **WEEKLY** database and summarized monthly in **USECON**. Data for individual states are in **REGIONW** back to December 1986.


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- Initial claims declined from the prior week.
- Continuing claims rose from the prior week.
- The insured unemployment rate edged up.


U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Dropped in Latest Week

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Mortgage applications dropped 5.0% w/w (+49.8% y/y) in the week of December 19, after a drop of 3.8% w/w (+40.9% y/y) in the week of December 12, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey. Applications for loans to purchase a house fell 3.7% w/w (+15.9% y/y) in the latest week, the third consecutive weekly decline, following a drop of 2.8% w/w (+12.3% y/y) in the December 12 week. Applications for loan refinancing dropped 5.6% w/w (+110.1% y/y) in the December 19 week after a decline of 3.6% w/w (+86.0% y/y) in the week of December 12. 

The effective interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate loan fell 8bps to 6.48% in the week ending December 19 from 6.56% in the week ending December 12. The rate on 15-year fixed-rate mortgages dropped 5bps to 5.86% in the latest week from 5.91% in the prior week. The 30-year Jumbo rate rose 8bps to 6.63% in the December 19 week from 6.55% in the December 12 week. The rate on a 5-year ARM jumped 20bps to 5.96% in the latest week from 5.76% in the December 12 week.

The share of applications for refinancing an existing loan edged up to 59.1% of total applications in the December19 week from 59.0% in the week ending December 12. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity rose to 8.1% in the latest week from 7.2% in the December 12 week.

The average size of a mortgage loan edged down 0.1% w/w (+7.8% y/y) to $399,700 in the week ending December 19, following a rise of 1.5% w/w (6.4% y/y) to $400,000 in the December 12 week. The average size of a purchase loan rose 1.0% w/w (1.1% y/y) to $428,600 in the latest week, after rising 0.6% w/w (-0.3% y/y) to $424,200 in the prior week. The average size of a loan to refinance a mortgage declined 0.9% w/w (+24.9% y/y) to $379,700 in the December 19 week, following a rise of 2.3% w/w (19.8% y/y) to $383,300 in the week ending December 12.

The Mortgage Bankers Association Survey covers 75% of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications and has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks and thrifts. The base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100. The figures for weekly mortgage applications and interest rates are available in Haver’s **SURVEYS** database.


- Both purchase applications and refinancing loan applications fell in the latest week.
- Effective interest rate on 30-year fixed loans fell to 6.48%.
- Average loan size edged down.


U.S. Mortgage Applications Dropped in the Week of December 19

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Real GDP grew 4.3% (SAAR) during the third quarter following a 3.8% Q2 gain, revised from 3.3% reported initially. These increases followed a minimally revised 0.6% decline in Q1. A 3.0% rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Growth during the last four quarters of 2.3% compared to 2.1% y/y in Q2 and remained below its most recent high of 3.4% in Q4 2023.

After-tax corporate profits without IVA & CCA adjustment surged 7.0% (4.2% y/y) last quarter after edging 0.6% higher in Q2. Before-tax earnings with IVA & CCA rose 4.2% (9.1% y/y) after improving 0.2% in Q2. Financial sector earnings rose 6.2% (21.1% y/y) after rising 1.1% in Q2. Nonfinancial corporate profits rose 2.5% (3.3% y/y) after edging 0.5% higher in Q2. Earnings from abroad jumped 10.6% (26.3% y/y) following a 2.9% Q2  decline.

Foreign trade balance improvement added 1.59 percentage points to growth last quarter after adding 4.83 percentage points in Q2. Real exports increased 2.1% (1.5% y/y) after falling 0.5% in Q2. Real imports declined 1.2% (-1.8% y/y) after declining 8.3% in Q2. Inventories subtracted 0.22 percentage points from growth after subtracting 3.44 percentage point from Q2 growth.

Real final sales to private domestic purchasers grew 3.0% (2.6% y/y) last quartter after rising 2.9% in Q2, revised from 1.6%. Personal consumption expenditures rose 3.5% (2.6% y/y) after a 2.5% rise, revised from 1.6%. Durable goods spending rose 1.6% (3.2% y/y) after increasing 2.3% in Q2. Motor vehicle purchases declined 6.7% (+1.6% y/y) after strengthening 9.7% in Q2. Spending on home furnishings & appliances weakened 4.2% (+0.7% y/y) following a 2.0% fall. Recreational goods & vehicle buying surged 15.7% (7.0% y/y) last quarter after falling 2.5% in Q2.

Nondurable goods outlays in constant dollars rose 3.9% (3.0% y/y) last quarter following 2.2% growth in Q2. Apparel spending strengthened 6.7% (7.0% y/y) following a 5.8% rise. Food & beverage buying gained 2.0% (1.3% y/y) after edging 0.2% higher. Gasoline & fuel oil purchases improved 1.3% (-0.2% y/y) after falling 2.8% in Q2.



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Real spending on services increased 3.7% (2.4% y/y) in Q3 after a 2.6% Q2 gain. Outlays on housing & utilities edged 0.3% higher (1.0% y/y) after easing 0.2% in Q2. Health care expenditures surged 6.8% (4.5% y/y) after a 4.8% increase. Transportation outlays gained 3.1% both  q/q and y/y after a 7.0% rise, while recreation spending jumped 6.6% (2.4% y/y) following a 3.9% rise. Restaurant & hotel expenditures increased 1.2% (2.0% y/y) after strengthening 5.9% in Q2. Financial services expenditures rose 2.6% both q/q and y/y following a 4.8% Q2 increase.

Business fixed investment in constant dollars increased 2.8% (3.9% y/y) last  quarter following a 7.3% Q2 rise, revised from 5.7%. Expenditures on structures declined 6.3% both q/q and y/y, after falling for six consecutive quarters. Expenditures on producers’ durable equipment increased 5.4% (7.4% y/y), after strengthening 8.5% in Q2. Outlays on information processing equipment rose 8.4% (18.6% y/y), after strengthening 11.7% during Q2. Industrial equipment investment rose 2.0% (3.4% y/y) after a 6.5% rise. Transportation equipment investment fell  2.7% (+3.0% y/y) after strengthening 25.2%. Intellectual property product spending rose 5.4% last quarter (6.4% y/y), after surging 15.0% in Q2.

Residential structures investment in real terms declined 5.1% (-1.8% y/y), the same as in Q2. It was the third consecutive quartly decline.

Government spending rose 2.2% (1.1% y/y) during the third quarter after an unrevised 0.1% easing in Q2. Federal government expenditures rose 2.9% (-1.0% y/y) after falling 5.3% in Q2. National defense expenditures increased 5.8% (1.0% y/y) after rising 0.9% in Q2. State & local government spending rose 1.8% (2.4% y/y) following a 3.1% rise.

The GDP chain price index rose 3.8% (3.0% y/y) last quarter vs. 2.1% in Q2. The PCE chain price index increased 2.8% (2.7% y/y) following a 2.1% rise. The PCE price index excluding food and energy rose 2.9% (2.9% y/y) after increasing 2.6% in Q2. The business fixed investment price index rose 5.2% (1.5% y/y) in Q3 after a 0.4% decline. The residential price index rose 4.5% (3.3% y/y) last quarter after a 2.2% rise, while the government price index increased 4.4% (3.5% y/y) following a 3.3% rise.

The GDP data can be found in Haver’s **USECON** and **USNA** databases. **USNA** contains virtually all of the Bureau of Economic Analysis detail in the national accounts. The Action Economics consensus estimates can be found in **AS1REPNA**.



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- Consumer spending strengthens; growth in business investment decelerates.
- Corporate profit growth led by earnings abroad.
- Rise in chain price index accelerates.


U.S. GDP Growth is Strong in Q3; Profits Jump

Sandy Batten

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Industrial production fell 0.1% m/m in October but rose 0.2% m/m (2.5% y/y) in November. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 0.1% monthly gains in both months. Manufacturing activity was tepid with manufacturing production falling 0.4% m/m in October and unchanged in November. Manufacturing output has not posted a monthly gain since July. Mining output fell 0.8% m/m in October but rebounded 1.7% m/m in November. Utilities output surged 2.6% m/m in October but fell 0.4% m/m in November. Compared to a year ago, manufacturing production is up 1.9%; mining output is up 3.9%; and utilities output is up 4.8%.

By market group, output of durable consumer goods plunged 2.6% m/m in October and fell another 0.2% in November. Production of durable consumer goods has declined in five of the previous six months. Production of nondurable consumer goods rose 0.5% m/m in both October and November. Compared to a year ago, durable consumer goods production has fallen 5.9% while nondurable consumer goods output has risen 2.7%. Business equipment production fell 0.3% m/m in October but rebounded 0.3% m/m in November and is up 11.2% y/y. Production of nonindustrial supplies fell 0.3% m/m in both October and November.

By industry group, output of durable goods fell 0.5% m/m in October and declined 0.1% m/m in November but were up 3.2% from a year ago. Motor vehicle and parts production slumped 5.1% m/m in October and declined 1.0% m/m in November to be down 5.6% from a year ago. Monthly motor vehicle output has declined in five of the previous six months. In contrast, production of computers and electronic products increased 1.5% m/m in October and rose 0.8% m/m in November. Aerospace production continued to rise, increasing 2.0% m/m in October and 1.1% m/m in November to be up 25.2% from a year ago. Output of nondurable goods fell 0.2% m/m in October and edged up 0.1% m/m in November. Their output is up 0.9% from a year ago. Apparel output fell 1.3% m/m in October but recovered in November, rising 2.3% m/m. Food and beverage output rose 0.3% m/m in October and another 1.2% in November.

Output of selected high-technology industries rebounded in October and November. After having declined 1.0% m/m in both August and September, production jumped 1.9% m/m in October and 1.1% m/m in November to stand 11.8% higher than a year ago. Manufacturing output excluding selected high-tech industries fell 0.4% m/m in October and was unchanged in November. It has risen only 1.6% over the past year. Manufacturing excluding motor vehicle production was unchanged in October and edged up 0.1% m/m in November; it is up 2.6% y/y.

Total industry capacity utilization edged down to 75.9% in October from 76.0% in September and then recovered the decline in November, edging up to 76.0%. In the manufacturing sector, the utilization rate slumped to 75.4% in October from 75.8% in September and remained at 75.4% in November. The October/November reading is the lowest since January.

Industrial production and capacity data are in Haver’s **USECON** database. Additional detail on production and capacity utilization can be found in the **IP** database. The expectations figures come from the **AS1REPNA** database.



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- Today’s release contained figures for both October and November that had been delayed by the federal government shutdown.
- IP fell in October but recovered in November.
- Manufacturing output was tepid, falling in October and unchanged in November.
- A surge in utilities output in October prevented a larger decline in total production.
- A jump in mining output in November accounted for all of the increase in total production.


U.S. Industrial Production Fell in October and Recovered in November

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New orders for durable goods fell a more-than-expected 2.2% (+4.8% y/y) in October following an upwardly revised 0.7% m/m rise in September (previously +0.5% m/m) and a 3.0% monthly jump in August. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a 1.5% m/m decline. A 23.7% m/m drop in aircraft orders more than accounted for the overall decline. Orders excluding aircraft increased 0.2% m/m (4.0% y/y) in October on top of a 0.5% monthly increase in September.

More generally, transportation orders fell 6.5% m/m (+7.3% y/y) in October following a 0.6% m/m increase in September and an 8.0% monthly jump in August. In addition to the drop in aircraft orders, orders for motor vehicles and parts edged up 0.1% m/m in October, their sixth consecutive monthly increase. Across other sectors, orders for primary metals fell 0.7% m/m, their first monthly decline in ten months. Orders for electrical equipment and appliances slumped 1.5% m/m, their first monthly decline in seven months. In contrast, orders for fabricated metal products rose 0.5% m/m, their fourth consecutive monthly gain. Machinery orders increased 0.8% m/m, their eighth consecutive monthly rise. Orders for computers and electronic products increased a solid 1.0% m/m on top of a 1.2% monthly increase in September.

Shipments of core capital goods (nondefense capital goods shipments excluding aircraft) are a reliable coincident indicator of business spending on equipment in the national accounts. They rose 0.7% m/m in October following an upwardly revised 1.2% monthly gain in September (previously +0.9%). The was the second consecutive monthly increase and the fifth in the past six months. The strong end to Q3 and the continued rise in the first month of Q4 provides a solid starting point for all of Q4. The October shipments figure was 5.9% at an annual rate above the Q3 average. Core capital goods orders rose 0.5% m/m in October on top of an upwardly revised 1.1% m/m increase in September (previously +0.9%). This was the fourth consecutive monthly rise.

Total manufacturing shipments edged up 0.1% m/m (+2.8% y/y) in October after having been essentially unchanged in September. Shipments of durable goods increased 0.6% m/m (5.9% y/y), led by 1.4% monthly jump in transportation shipments. However, apart from a 0.1% m/m decline in shipments of other durable goods, all of the other major sectors posted monthly gains in October. In contrast, shipments of nondurable goods fell 0.4% m/m (-0.3% y/y) in October for their third consecutive monthly decline. The monthly decline was led by a 2.4% m/m fall in shipments of petroleum and coal products although it was relatively widely spread across major sectors. The one exception was a 2.1% m/m increase in leather product shipments, but this came after four consecutive sizeable monthly declines.

Unfilled durable goods orders increased 0.2% m/m (7.9% y/y) in October for their third consecutive monthly gain following a 0.8% m/m rise in September and a 0.7% m/m increase in August. Total factory inventories were unchanged in October (+1.4% y/y) following 0.1% monthly declines in both August and September. Durable goods inventories edged up 0.1% m/m in October while inventories of nondurable goods fell 0.2% m/m, the third consecutive monthly decline.

The factory sector data are available in Haver’s **USECON** database. The Action Economics Forecast Survey is in the **AS1REPNA** database.



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- New orders for durable goods slumped 2.2% m/m in October following increases in both August and September
- A 24% monthly drop in aircraft orders drove the overall decline
- Orders excluding aircraft rose 0.2% m/m in October
- Core capital goods shipments and orders continued to rise in October with small upward revisions to September


Economy in Brief: 2005

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OECD Leaders Lost More Forward Momentum

Initial Claims for Jobless Insurance Up For Third Week

U.S. Retail Sales Jump

U.S. Retail Sales Jump

Trade Deficit Eases in UK, Surplus Increases in Canada, but Energy May Be Starting to Restrain Demand for Non- [...]

Mortgage Applications Surged as Rates Remained Low

JOLTS: U.S. Job Openings Firm

Small Business Optimism Down Further