Global| May 12 2005Initial Claims for Jobless Insurance Up For Third Week
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
For the third consecutive week, initial claims for unemployment insurance rose. The 4,000 increase to 340,000 was smaller than the gains during the earlier two weeks (the prior week's gain was revised slightly higher), but the latest [...]
For the third consecutive week, initial claims for unemployment insurance rose. The 4,000 increase to 340,000 was smaller than the gains during the earlier two weeks (the prior week's gain was revised slightly higher), but the latest level was 4.3% above the April average. Consensus expectations had been for 329,000 claims.
During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 75% correlation between the level of initial claims for unemployment insurance and the monthly change in payroll employment. There has been a (negative) 65% correlation with the level of continuing claims.
The four week moving average of initial claims rose to 324,000 (-4.8% y/y).
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance rose 15,000 and the prior week's gain was revised down slightly.
The insured unemployment rate held at 2.0% for the third consecutive weeks.
Self-employed immigrants: An analysis of recent data from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago can be found here.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 05/07/05 | 04/30/05 | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 340 | 336 | 1.2% | 343 | 402 | 404 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 2,598 | -12.6% | 2,926 | 3,531 | 3,570 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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