Economy in Brief: June 2020

• Consumer spending posts surprising, record increase. • Discretionary spending rebounds sharply, reflecting pent-up demand. Total retail sales, including food service establishments, increased a record 17.7% (-6.1% y/y) during May [...]

Total business inventories fell 1.3% m/m (-2.2% y/y) in April, following a revised 0.3% m/m decline in March. The April decline was larger than the 0.8% decline expected by the Informa Global Markets panel. Business sales collapsed [...]

• Gasoline and crude oil prices move higher. • Natural gas prices hold steady. The price for a gallon of regular gasoline rose to $2.10 per gallon (-21.4% y/y) in the week ended June 15 from $2.04 per gallon in the previous week. It [...]

The EMU trade situation saw an extremely sharp deterioration in its surplus in April. The surplus dropped from €25.5bln to €1.2bln in one month! It is by far the sharpest monthly setback on data back to January 1999. EMU experienced [...]

Economic activity in New York is strengthening. The Empire State Manufacturing Index of General Business Conditions rose sharply to -0.2 during June from -48.5 in May. The rebound far outpaced expectations for an increase to -31.3 in [...]

Japan's industrial production index fell sharply in April and on revision the drop has been revised slightly smaller. However, the drop is still enormous and it came on the heels of a substantial drop in March and a small decline in [...]

• Housing affordability jumps to its highest rate since March 2016. • Strength in home prices is offset by improvement in income & lower mortgage rates. The National Association of Realtors reported that its Fixed Rate Mortgage [...]

• Oil prices reverse part of April's decline. • Nonoil prices edge higher. • Export prices rise moderately. Import prices improved 1.0% during May (-6.0% y/y) after an unrevised 2.6% April decline. A 0.5% rise had been expected in the [...]