Tom Moeller

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      <p>The overall Final Demand Producer Price Index held steady during August
      (1.8% y/y) following an unrevised 0.1% uptick in July. A 0.1% rise was
      expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Prices excluding food
      &amp; energy gained 0.1% (1.8% y/y) and matched expectations.</p>
      
      <p>Goods prices (34% of the total index) declined 0.3% (+1.7% y/y). A 1.5%
      fall (+0.2% y/y) in energy prices held back the overall index increase.
      Home heating oil prices fell 5.7% (-7.1% y/y) while natural gas prices
      were off 4.5% (+6.6% y/y). Gasoline prices were off 1.4% (-3.1% y/y) and
      electric power costs slipped 0.2% (+3.9% y/y). Finished food prices
      declined 0.5% (+3.8% y/y), the third drop in four months. Egg prices
      plummeted 21.5% (+2.0% y/y). Beef &amp; veal prices edged 0.3% higher
      (28.6% y/y) after having surged 9.2% in July. That followed the 9.2% July 
      upward surge. Dairy product prices gained 0.3% (12.5% y/y). Final demand prices 
      for goods excluding food &amp; energy remained unchanged (1.6% y/y) after a 0.2% 
      gain during July. Passenger car prices declined 0.2% (+1.0% y/y). Private capital
      equipment prices held steady (1.5% y/y).</p>
      
      <p>Services prices (64% of the total index) gained 0.3% (1.9% y/y) after a
      0.1% uptick. Prices for transportation of passengers jumped 1.6% (4.3%
      y/y). Prices for transportation and warehousing of goods for final demand
      ticked 0.1% lower (+2.5% y/y).</p>
      
      <p>Construction prices for final demand (2% of the total index) remained
      unchanged (3.2% y/y) following a 0.5% jump.</p>
      
      <p>Intermediate demand prices of processed goods fell 0.3% (+1.3% y/y)
      after a 0.1% uptick.</p>
      
      <p>Measured using the old formula, which is being phased out as the
      headline series, producer prices declined 0.4% (+2.3% y/y) after a 0.1% July
      uptick. Food costs retreated 0.4% (+5.0% y/y) while energy prices declined
      1.4% (+0.8% y/y). Prices excluding food &amp; energy nudged 0.1% higher
      (1.9% y/y) for a second straight month.</p>
      
      <p>The PPI data are contained in Haver's <b>USECON</b> database with
      further detail in <b>PPI</b> and <b>PPIR</b>. The expectations figure is
      available in the <b>AS1REPNA </b>database.</p>
      
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      <table class="centered" width="100%" border="0" cellspacing="0">
	<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>

        <thead>
          <tr>
            <th class="firstcol" scope="col" >Producer Price Index
              (%)</th>
            <th scope="col" >Aug</th>
            <th scope="col" >Jul</th>
            <th scope="col" >Jun</th>
            <th scope="col" >Aug Y/Y</th>
            <th scope="col" >2013</th>
            <th scope="col" >2012</th>
            <th scope="col" >2011</th>
          </tr>
        </thead>
        <tbody>
          <tr>
            <td class="firstcol" >Final Demand</td>
            <td  >0.0</td>
            <td  >0.1</td>
            <td  >0.4</td>
            <td  >1.8</td>
            <td  >1.3</td>
            <td  >1.9</td>
            <td  >3.9</td>
          </tr>
          <tr class="odd">
            <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp; Excluding Food &amp; Energy</td>
            <td  >0.1</td>
            <td  >0.2</td>
            <td  >0.2</td>
            <td  >1.8</td>
            <td  >1.5</td>
            <td  >1.9</td>
            <td  >--</td>
          </tr>
          <tr class="odd">
            <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Goods</td>
            <td  >-0.3</td>
            <td  >0.0</td>
            <td  >0.5</td>
            <td  >1.7</td>
            <td  >0.8</td>
            <td  >1.7</td>
            <td  >6.8</td>
          </tr>
          <tr>
            <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
              Foods</td>
            <td  >-0.5</td>
            <td  >0.4</td>
            <td  >-0.2</td>
            <td  >3.8</td>
            <td  >1.7</td>
            <td  >3.0</td>
            <td  >8.5</td>
          </tr>
          <tr class="odd">
            <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
              Energy</td>
            <td  >-1.5</td>
            <td  >-0.6</td>
            <td  >2.1</td>
            <td  >0.2</td>
            <td  >-0.8</td>
            <td  >0.2</td>
            <td  >17.5</td>
          </tr>
          <tr>
            <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Goods
              Excluding Food &amp; Energy</td>
            <td  >0.0</td>
            <td  >0.2</td>
            <td  >0.1</td>
            <td  >1.6</td>
            <td  >1.1</td>
            <td  >1.8</td>
            <td  >3.4</td>
          </tr>
          <tr class="odd">
            <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp;&nbsp; Services</td>
            <td  >0.3</td>
            <td  >0.1</td>
            <td  >0.3</td>
            <td  >1.9</td>
            <td  >1.6</td>
            <td  >1.9</td>
            <td  >2.1</td>
          </tr>
          <tr>
            <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp;&nbsp; Construction</td>
            <td  >0.0</td>
            <td  >0.5</td>
            <td  >0.1</td>
            <td  >3.2</td>
            <td  >1.8</td>
            <td  >2.9</td>
            <td  >2.2</td>
          </tr>
          <tr>
            <td class="firstcol" >Intermediate Demand - Processed
              Goods</td>
            <td  >-0.3</td>
            <td  >0.1</td>
            <td  >0.4</td>
            <td  >1.3</td>
            <td  >0.0</td>
            <td  >0.5</td>
            <td  >8.9</td>
           </tr>
              </tbody>
            </table>
            </span>
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The overall Final Demand Producer Price Index held steady during August (1.8% y/y) following an unrevised 0.1% uptick in July. A 0.1% rise was expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Prices excluding food & energy gained [...]

U.S. Producer Prices Remain Unchanged; Core Index Up 0.1%

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      <p>The overall Final Demand Producer Price Index held steady during August
      (1.8% y/y) following an unrevised 0.1% uptick in July. A 0.1% rise was
      expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Prices excluding food
      &amp; energy gained 0.1% (1.8% y/y) and matched expectations.</p>
      <p>Goods prices (34% of the total index) declined 0.3% (+1.7% y/y). A 1.5%
      fall (+0.2% y/y) in energy prices held back the overall index increase.
      Home heating oil prices fell 5.7% (-7.1% y/y) while natural gas prices
      were off 4.5% (+6.6% y/y). Gasoline prices were off 1.4% (-3.1% y/y) and
      electric power costs slipped 0.2% (+3.9% y/y). Finished food prices
      declined 0.5% (+3.8% y/y), the third drop in four months. Egg prices
      plummeted 21.5% (+2.0% y/y) while beef &amp; veal prices edged 0.3% higher
      (28.6% y/y). That followed the 9.2% July upward surge. Dairy product
      prices gained 0.3% (12.5% y/y). Final demand prices for goods excluding
      food &amp; energy remained unchanged (1.6% y/y) after a 0.2% gain during
      July. Passenger car prices declined 0.2% (+1.0% y/y). Private capital
      equipment prices held steady (1.5% y/y).</p>
      <p>Services prices (64% of the total index) gained 0.3% (1.9% y/y) after a
      0.1% uptick. Prices for transportation of passengers jumped 1.6% (4.3%
      y/y). Prices for transportation and warehousing of goods for final demand
      ticked 0.1% lower (+2.5% y/y).</p>
      <p>Construction prices for final demand (2% of the total index) remained
      unchanged (3.2% y/y) following following a 0.5% jump.</p>
      <p>Intermediate demand prices of processed goods fell 0.3% (+1.3% y/y)
      after a 0.1% uptick.</p>
      <p>Measured using the old formula, which is being phased out as the
      headline series, producer prices declined 0.4% (+2.3% y/y) after a 0.1% July
      uptick. Food costs retreated 0.4% (+5.0% y/y) while energy prices declined
      1.4% (+0.8% y/y). Prices excluding food &amp; energy nudged 0.1% higher
      (1.9% y/y) for a second straight month.</p>
      <p>The PPI data are contained in Haver's <b>USECON</b> database with
      further detail in <b>PPI</b> and <b>PPIR</b>. The expectations figure is
      available in the <b>AS1REPNA </b>database.</p>
      <table class="centered" border="0" cellSpacing="0" width="1871">
        <thead>
          <tr>
            <th class="firstcol" scope="col" width="947">Producer Price Index
              (%)</th>
            <th scope="col" width="131">Aug</th>
            <th scope="col" width="131">Jul</th>
            <th scope="col" width="131">Jun</th>
            <th scope="col" width="131">Aug Y/Y</th>
            <th scope="col" width="132">2013</th>
            <th scope="col" width="132">2012</th>
            <th scope="col" width="132">2011</th>
          </tr>
        </thead>
        <tbody>
          <tr>
            <td class="firstcol" width="947">Final Demand</td>
            <td align="center" width="131">0.0</td>
            <td align="center" width="131">0.1</td>
            <td align="center" width="131">0.4</td>
            <td align="center" width="131">1.8</td>
            <td align="center" width="132">1.3</td>
            <td align="center" width="132">1.9</td>
            <td align="center" width="132">3.9</td>
          </tr>
          <tr class="odd">
            <td class="firstcol" width="947">&nbsp; Excluding Food &amp; Energy</td>
            <td align="center" width="131">0.1</td>
            <td align="center" width="131">0.2</td>
            <td align="center" width="131">0.2</td>
            <td align="center" width="131">1.8</td>
            <td align="center" width="132">1.5</td>
            <td align="center" width="132">1.9</td>
            <td align="center" width="132">--</td>
          </tr>
          <tr class="odd">
            <td class="firstcol" width="947">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Goods</td>
            <td align="center" width="131">-0.3</td>
            <td align="center" width="131">0.0</td>
            <td align="center" width="131">0.5</td>
            <td align="center" width="131">1.7</td>
            <td align="center" width="132">0.8</td>
            <td align="center" width="132">1.7</td>
            <td align="center" width="132">6.8</td>
          </tr>
          <tr>
            <td class="firstcol" width="947">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
              Foods</td>
            <td align="center" width="131">-0.5</td>
            <td align="center" width="131">0.4</td>
            <td align="center" width="131">-0.2</td>
            <td align="center" width="131">3.8</td>
            <td align="center" width="132">1.7</td>
            <td align="center" width="132">3.0</td>
            <td align="center" width="132">8.5</td>
          </tr>
          <tr class="odd">
            <td class="firstcol" width="947">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
              Energy</td>
            <td align="center" width="131">-1.5</td>
            <td align="center" width="131">-0.6</td>
            <td align="center" width="131">2.1</td>
            <td align="center" width="131">0.2</td>
            <td align="center" width="132">-0.8</td>
            <td align="center" width="132">0.2</td>
            <td align="center" width="132">17.5</td>
          </tr>
          <tr>
            <td class="firstcol" width="947">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Goods
              Excluding Food &amp; Energy</td>
            <td align="center" width="131">0.0</td>
            <td align="center" width="131">0.2</td>
            <td align="center" width="131">0.1</td>
            <td align="center" width="131">1.6</td>
            <td align="center" width="132">1.1</td>
            <td align="center" width="132">1.8</td>
            <td align="center" width="132">3.4</td>
          </tr>
          <tr class="odd">
            <td class="firstcol" width="947">&nbsp;&nbsp; Services</td>
            <td align="center" width="131">0.3</td>
            <td align="center" width="131">0.1</td>
            <td align="center" width="131">0.3</td>
            <td align="center" width="131">1.9</td>
            <td align="center" width="132">1.6</td>
            <td align="center" width="132">1.9</td>
            <td align="center" width="132">2.1</td>
          </tr>
          <tr>
            <td class="firstcol" width="947">&nbsp;&nbsp; Construction</td>
            <td align="center" width="131">0.0</td>
            <td align="center" width="131">&nbsp;0.5</td>
            <td align="center" width="131">0.1</td>
            <td align="center" width="131">3.2</td>
            <td align="center" width="132">1.8</td>
            <td align="center" width="132">2.9</td>
            <td align="center" width="132">2.2</td>
          </tr>
          <tr>
            <td class="firstcol" width="947">Intermediate Demand - Processed
              Goods</td>
            <td align="center" width="131">-0.3</td>
            <td align="center" width="131">0.1</td>
            <td align="center" width="131">0.4</td>
            <td align="center" width="131">1.3</td>
            <td align="center" width="132">0.0</td>
            <td align="center" width="132">0.5</td>
            <td align="center" width="132">8.9</td>
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      <span id="articletitle">U.S. Gasoline Prices Remain Stable; Crude Oil
      Prices Decline</span><br>
      <span id="byline">by <a href="http://www.haver.com/comment/Moeller.html">Tom
      Moeller</a>&nbsp;&nbsp;September 16, 2014</span><span id="articletext">
      <p>The price for a gallon of <b>regular gasoline</b> held steady last week
      at $3.46. It's been near that level for four weeks but was off 3.6% y/y.
      To account for seasonal patterns, Haver Analytics constructs factors for
      adjustment of pump prices. The adjusted price slipped to $3.33 per gallon,
      the lowest level since May 2013.</p>
      <p>WTI <b>crude oil</b> prices reversed the prior week's increase and fell
      to $94.05 per barrel (-13.5% y/y), the lowest level since late November.
      The seasonally adjusted price generated by Haver declined to $94.85 per
      barrel. Yesterday, prices fell to $92.66. Brent crude oil prices edged up
      to $100.72 per barrel last week (-12.8% y/y) and were $99.13 yesterday.</p>
      <p>Natural gas prices slipped last week and averaged $3.92 per mmbtu
      (+7.5% y/y), the highest level since mid-July. Yesterday, prices slipped
      to $3.85.</p>
      <p>The <b>demand</b> for all petroleum products increased 2.7% in the week
      ended August 29 versus a year earlier. Gasoline demand slipped 0.7% y/y.
      Residual fuel oil needs, used for heating, fell 32.1% y/y while distillate
      demand improved 5.1% y/y. Inventories of crude oil and petroleum products
      eased 0.1% y/y and gasoline inventories were down 2.8% y/y.</p>
      <p>The energy price data are reported by the U.S. Department of Energy and
      can be found in Haver's <b>WEEKLY </b>database. The daily figures are in <b>DAILY</b>
      and the petroleum demand and inventory figures are in <b>OILWKLY.</b></p>
      <table class="centered" border="0" cellSpacing="0" width="1871">
        <thead>
          <tr>
            <th class="firstcol" scope="col" width="864">Weekly Energy Prices</th>
            <th scope="col" width="143">09/15/14</th>
            <th scope="col" width="143">09/08/14</th>
            <th scope="col" width="143">09/01/14</th>
            <th scope="col" width="143">Y/Y%</th>
            <th scope="col" width="143">2013</th>
            <th scope="col" width="144">2012</th>
            <th scope="col" width="144">2011</th>
          </tr>
        </thead>
        <tbody>
          <tr>
            <td class="firstcol" width="864">Retail Gasoline ($ per Gallon,
              Regular)</td>
            <td align="center" width="143"></td>
            <td align="center" width="143">3.46</td>
            <td align="center" width="143">3.46</td>
            <td align="center" width="143">-3.6</td>
            <td align="center" width="143">3.51</td>
            <td align="center" width="144">3.62</td>
            <td align="center" width="144">3.52</td>
          </tr>
          <tr class="odd">
            <td class="firstcol" width="864">Light Sweet Crude Oil, WTI ($ per
              bbl., WSJ)</td>
            <td align="center" width="143"></td>
            <td align="center" width="143">94.05</td>
            <td align="center" width="143">96.26</td>
            <td align="center" width="143">-13.5</td>
            <td align="center" width="143">97.95</td>
            <td align="center" width="144">94.20</td>
            <td align="center" width="144">95.14</td>
          </tr>
          <tr>
            <td class="firstcol" width="864">Natural Gas ($/mmbtu, LA, WSJ)</td>
            <td align="center" width="143"></td>
            <td align="center" width="143">3.92</td>
            <td align="center" width="143">3.98</td>
            <td align="center" width="143">7.5</td>
            <td align="center" width="143">3.73</td>
            <td align="center" width="144">2.75</td>
            <td align="center" width="144">3.99</td>
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      <p><a href="/comment/140915f_big.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/140915f.png"></a>
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      <p>Industrial production slipped 0.1% last month (+4.1% y/y) following a
      0.2% July increase, revised from 0.4%. The decline was driven by a 0.4%
      shortfall (+1.3% y/y) in factory output during August after increasing 0.7%,
      last month reported as 1.0%. A 0.3% gain in total production was expected
      in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Utility output improved 1.0%
      (0.0% y/y) after a 2.7% decline.</p>
      
      <p>A 7.0% decline last month in automotive products production (+7.4% y/y)
      reversed a 7.6% July increase. Appliances, furniture &amp; carpeting
      production fell 2.5% (+7.0% y/y) following strong increases in the prior five
      months. Working the other way was computers &amp; electronics output. It
      gained 2.4% (+5.6% y/y) and reversed a 2.3% July decline. Business
      equipment production was unchanged (5.8% y/y) last month. A 1.0% increase
      (1.7% y/y) in information processing equipment was offset by a 2.3% decline
      (+7.2% y/y) in transit equipment (+7.2% y/y). Amongst consumer soft-goods
      industries, output improved 0.3% (2.0% y/y) after a 0.4% decline. Chemical
      production gained 0.7% (4.1% y/y) after having been unchanged and food
      &amp; tobacco production gained 0.5% (1.8% y/y) following a 0.6% July
      decline. To the downside, clothing output fell 2.3% (+0.3% y/y), the
      largest of four declines in the last five months.</p>
      
      <p>Within the special aggregate series, high technology industries posted
      a 1.5% production gain (7.4% y/y). That included a 1.6% rise (9.9% y/y) in
      semiconductors after having been unchanged over the prior two months.
      Factory production excluding the high-tech sector fell 0.5% (3.4% y/y).
      Manufacturing production excluding both high-tech and autos remained
      unchanged (3.1% y/y) following four straight months of gains between 0.2%
      and 0.3%.</p>
      
      <p>The capacity utilization rate fell to 78.8%, its lowest level in six
      months. That remained below the 80.5% high averaged in 2007. In the
      factory sector, the capacity utilization rate declined to 77.2% and
      reversed the July increase. Total industry capacity rose an improving 2.8%
      y/y while factory sector capacity increased 2.1%.</p>
      
      <p>Industrial production and capacity data are included in Haver's <b>USECON</b>
      database, with additional detail in the <b>IP</b> database. The
      expectations figure is in the <b>AS1REPNA</b> database.</p>
      
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	<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>

        <thead>
          <tr>
            <th class="firstcol" scope="col" >Industrial Production
              (SA, % Change)</th>
            <th scope="col" >Aug</th>
            <th scope="col" >Jul</th>
            <th scope="col" >Jun</th>
            <th scope="col" >Aug Y/Y</th>
            <th scope="col" >2013</th>
            <th scope="col" >2012</th>
            <th scope="col" >2011</th>
          </tr>
        </thead>
        <tbody>
          <tr>
            <td class="firstcol" >Total Output</td>
            <td  >-0.1</td>
            <td  >0.2</td>
            <td  >0.3</td>
            <td  >4.1</td>
            <td  >2.9</td>
            <td  >3.8</td>
            <td  >3.3</td>
          </tr>
          <tr class="odd">
            <td class="firstcol" >Manufacturing</td>
            <td  >-0.4</td>
            <td  >0.7</td>
            <td  >0.3</td>
            <td  >3.6</td>
            <td  >2.7</td>
            <td  >4.1</td>
            <td  >3.3</td>
          </tr>
          <tr>
            <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp;&nbsp;Consumer Goods</td>
            <td  >-0.8</td>
            <td  >0.7</td>
            <td  >-0.2</td>
            <td  >2.8</td>
            <td  >2.4</td>
            <td  >1.7</td>
            <td  >1.5</td>
          </tr>
          <tr class="odd">
            <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp;&nbsp;Business Equipment</td>
            <td  >0.0</td>
            <td  >1.2</td>
            <td  >-0.3</td>
            <td  >5.8</td>
            <td  >3.6</td>
            <td  >7.5</td>
            <td  >5.6</td>
          </tr>
          <tr>
            <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp;&nbsp;Construction Supplies</td>
            <td  >0.1</td>
            <td  >1.3</td>
            <td  >0.6</td>
            <td  >5.4</td>
            <td  >4.2</td>
            <td  >4.6</td>
            <td  >3.0</td>
          </tr>
          <tr class="odd">
            <td class="firstcol" >Materials</td>
            <td  >0.1</td>
            <td  >-0.3</td>
            <td  >0.9</td>
            <td  >4.9</td>
            <td  >3.2</td>
            <td  >4.5</td>
            <td  >4.7</td>
          </tr>
          <tr>
            <td class="firstcol" >Utilities</td>
            <td  >1.0</td>
            <td  >-2.7</td>
            <td  >-2.0</td>
            <td  >0.0</td>
            <td  >2.1</td>
            <td  >-2.1</td>
            <td  >-0.2</td>
          </tr>
          <tr class="odd">
            <td class="firstcol" >Capacity Utilization (%)</td>
            <td  >78.8</td>
            <td  >79.1</td>
            <td  >79.1</td>
            <td  >77.8</td>
            <td  >78.0</td>
            <td  >77.3</td>
            <td  >76.3</td>
          </tr>
          <tr>
            <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp;Manufacturing</td>
            <td  >77.2</td>
            <td  >77.6</td>
            <td  >77.2</td>
            <td  >76.1</td>
            <td  >76.1</td>
            <td  >75.5</td>
            <td  >73.9</td>
  </tr>
              </tbody>
            </table>
            </span>
</body></html>

Industrial production slipped 0.1% last month (+4.1% y/y) following a 0.2% July increase, revised from 0.4%. The decline was driven by a 0.4% shortfall (+1.3% y/y) in factory output during August after increasing 0.7%, last month [...]

U.S. Industrial Production is Led Lower by Durable Goods

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      <p></p>
      
      <p><a href="/comment/140915a_big.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/140915a.png"></a>
      <a href="/comment/140915b_big.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/140915b.png"></a></p>

      <p>The Federal Reserve Bank of New York reported
      that its <b>Empire State Factory Index of
      General Business Conditions jumped to 27.54 during September after moving
      lower in August to 14.69. </b> It was the highest level since October 2009
      and beat expectations for 16.0.0 in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.</p>
      
      <p>Based on these figures, Haver Analytics calculates a seasonally
      adjusted index that is compatible to the ISM series. <b>The adjusted
      figure improved slightly to 53.4 this month from 53.2</b>, still near the
      lowest level since April. A rising level of activity is indicated by a
      figure above 50.<b> </b>Since inception in 2001, the business conditions
      index has had a 68% correlation with the quarterly change in real GDP.</p>
      
      <p>Movement amongst the component series was mixed. The shipments figure
      increased to its highest level since 2009 while new orders improved
      modestly, also remaining near its five-year high. The inventories series
      bounced slightly higher following a sharp August decline. To the downside,
      the employment index fell to its lowest level in nine months. During the
      last ten years there has been a 75% correlation between the jobs index and
      the m/m change in factory sector payrolls. Also falling were the unfilled
      orders and average workweek indexes. The delivery times index was fairly
      stable after sharp declines in the prior two months.</p>
      
      <p>The prices paid index pulled back modestly following sharp gains during
      the prior two months. Twenty seven percent of respondents reported paying
      higher prices while three percent paid less. During the last ten years,
      there has been a 70% correlation between the index and the 3-month change
      in the intermediate goods PPI.</p>
      
      <p>Looking ahead, the Empire State <b>index of expected business
      conditions in six months held steady at 46.72,</b> its highest level since
      January 2012. The unfilled orders, employee workweek and prices paid
      series moved higher while new orders, shipments, and employment declined.
      Capital expenditures and technology spending also moved slightly lower.</p>
      
      <p>The Empire State figures are diffusion indexes which are calculated by
      subtracting the percent of respondents reporting poorer business
      conditions from those reporting improvement. Thus, they have a good
      correlation with growth in the series covered. The data is available in
      Haver's <b>SURVEYS </b>database. The ISM-adjusted headline index is
      calculated by Haver Analytics. The series date back only to 2001. The
      Consensus expectation figure can be found in Haver's <b>AS1REPNA</b>
      database.</p>
      
      <p><a href="/comment/140915c_big.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/140915c.png"></a>
      <a href="/comment/140915d_big.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/140915d.png"></a></p>
      
      <table class="centered" width="100%" border="0" cellspacing="0">
	<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>

        <thead>
          <tr>
            <th class="firstcol" scope="col" >Empire State
              Manufacturing Survey</th>
            <th scope="col" >Sept</th>
            <th scope="col" >Aug</th>
            <th scope="col" >Jul</th>
            <th scope="col" >Sept'13</th>
            <th scope="col" >2013</th>
            <th scope="col" >2012</th>
            <th scope="col" >2011</th>
          </tr>
        </thead>
        <tbody>
          <tr>
            <td class="firstcol" >General Business Conditions (ISM
              Adjusted)</td>
            <td  >53.4</td>
            <td  >53.2</td>
            <td  >55.5</td>
            <td  >52.4</td>
            <td  >50.0</td>
            <td  >51.8</td>
            <td  >51.8</td>
          </tr>
          <tr class="odd">
            <td class="firstcol" >General Business Conditions
              (Diffusion Index, %)</td>
            <td  >27.54</td>
            <td  >14.69</td>
            <td  >25.60</td>
            <td  >6.78</td>
            <td  >3.82</td>
            <td  >4.29</td>
            <td  >4.48</td>
          </tr>
          <tr>
            <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp;New Orders</td>
            <td  >16.86</td>
            <td  >14.14</td>
            <td  >18.77</td>
            <td  >2.62</td>
            <td  >1.13</td>
            <td  >1.47</td>
            <td  >4.04</td>
          </tr>
          <tr class="odd">
            <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp;Shipments</td>
            <td  >27.08</td>
            <td  >24.59</td>
            <td  >23.64</td>
            <td  >15.69</td>
            <td  >4.49</td>
            <td  >11.22</td>
            <td  >9.47</td>
          </tr>
          <tr>
            <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp;Unfilled Orders</td>
            <td  >-10.87</td>
            <td  >-7.95</td>
            <td  >-6.82</td>
            <td  >-6.45</td>
            <td  >-8.74</td>
            <td  >-8.83</td>
            <td  >-5.29</td>
          </tr>
          <tr class="odd">
            <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp;Delivery Time</td>
            <td  >-5.43</td>
            <td  >-5.68</td>
            <td  >-1.14</td>
            <td  >-4.30</td>
            <td  >-3.52</td>
            <td  >-0.30</td>
            <td  >-0.91</td>
          </tr>
          <tr>
            <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp;Inventories</td>
            <td  >-7.61</td>
            <td  >-14.77</td>
            <td  >-3.41</td>
            <td  >2.15</td>
            <td  >-5.73</td>
            <td  >-2.91</td>
            <td  >-1.80</td>
          </tr>
          <tr class="odd">
            <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp;Number of Employees</td>
            <td  >3.26</td>
            <td  >13.64</td>
            <td  >17.05</td>
            <td  >7.53</td>
            <td  >3.73</td>
            <td  >8.62</td>
            <td  >6.68</td>
          </tr>
          <tr>
            <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp;Prices Paid</td>
            <td  >23.91</td>
            <td  >27.27</td>
            <td  >25.00</td>
            <td  >21.51</td>
            <td  >21.53</td>
            <td  >24.71</td>
            <td  >40.66</td>
   </tr>
              </tbody>
            </table>
            </span>
</body></html>

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York reported that its Empire State Factory Index of General Business Conditions jumped to 27.54 during September after moving lower in August to 14.69. It was the highest level since October 2009 and [...]

Empire State Factory Sector Index Moves Up to 2009 High

Robert Brusca

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      <p></p>

<p><a href="/comment/140915e_big.png" name="modal"><img class="large" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/140915e.png" align="left"></a>
The euro area trade surplus shrank to 12.2 billion euros in July from 13.8 billion euros in June. The surplus is still higher than it was 12 months ago when it stood at 11.4 billion euros. 
</p><p>
Export growth fell by 0.2% in July as imports rose by 0.9%. Manufacturing exports fell by 0.7%; manufacturing imports rose by 0.4%. Nonmanufacturing exports rose by 2.1% as nonmanufacturing imports rose by 1.7%.
</p><p>
The trends for manufacturing exports and imports show that manufacturing exports have weakened after having been relatively steady for the past year. The 12-month growth rate for manufacturing exports is 3%. Over six months the pace stays at 3.1%, but over three months it dips to -1.6%.
</p><p>
For manufacturing imports, the 12-month growth rate is 4.4%. That rises to 6.2% over six months and then tails back to 3.3% over three months.
</p><p>
Manufacturing imports are stronger and steadier than manufacturing exports that seem to be under some recent downward pressure in the last three months.
</p><p>
While the short-term trends in trade are somewhat mixed, the longer-term view shows that on year-over-year trends, exports have steadily been rising faster than imports. That export growth rate margin has narrowed recently. Also, both exports and imports are showing steady increasing growth from early 2013 onward. While the trade surplus is falling for two consecutive months, the surplus level is still relatively high.
</p><p>
Looking at the trends for some early reporters, we see that Germany's three-month imports are declining and imports are on a progressively expanding negative profile- not a good sign for German demand growth. France has opposite import trends with negative growth rates over 12 months and six months, giving way to a nearly 19% growth rate over three months. The U.K. shows progressively expanding imports, rising from -1.9% growth over 12 months to 19% growth over three months. The U.K. profile underpins the notion of improving U.K. economy. The German profile points to a slowing that has been in place in Germany in the wake of the Russian sanctions. France's upward reversal is only for three months and so it's too soon to count on.
</p><p>
On the export side, German exports are still robust despite its weak imports. Exports are up at a nearly 20% rate over three months after posting growth rates of 8% over six months and 12 months. This strength seems to underpin German growth while import weakness seems to undermine it!
</p><p>
French exports are clawing back to positive growth from -1% over 12 months to 0.8% over six months to 1.4% over three months. 
</p><p>
The U.K. is rebounding with exports down by 4.2% over 12 months then bouncing back to gain 1.1% over six months and 1.3% over three months. 
</p><p>
Finland shows chronically weak exports, dropping at a 16.5% pace over 12 months and a 12.5% pace over three months.
</p><p>
The Netherlands shows a tendency to contraction as exports fall 0.5% over 12 months, rebound over six months, then decline again at a 1% rate over three months. 
</p><p>
Portugal shows some export progress as the growth rate of 1.6% over 12 months rises to a very strong 9.5% over six months and then moves back to 2.7% over three months.
</p><p>
<b>Summing up</b></p><p>
The overall European Monetary Union trend for exports shows some slight erosion in the growth rates from 12 months to three months. For manufacturing, the export erosion is sharper with growth rates of 3% falling at a 1.6% annual rate over three months. The member detail is somewhat mixed, but Germany tells the story of still strong exports that is not echoed in the rest of the member community.
</p><p>
EMU imports show growing strength, while manufacturing imports show sustaining growth, albeit with a slight moderating trend. The country detail shows German imports getting progressively weaker, while French imports reveal a nascent rebound.
</p><p>
The broad trend shows that export and import flows have moderated their uptrend in recent months. The detailed data show a good deal of irregularity within the EMU in both import and export trends. Strength of imports reassures us that growth in the EMU is still relatively firm and exports tend to echo that trend. Germany, a country that relies on export-led growth, continues to put up very good export numbers.
</p>


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The euro area trade surplus shrank to 12.2 billion euros in July from 13.8 billion euros in June. The surplus is still higher than it was 12 months ago when it stood at 11.4 billion euros. Export growth fell by 0.2% in July as imports [...]

Euro Area Trade Surplus Shrinks

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      <p></p>
      
      <p><a href="/comment/140912j_big.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/140912j.png"></a>
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      <p>Total business inventories increased 0.4% in July (5.9% y/y) after an
      unrevised 0.4% rise during June. For all of last quarter, faster
      accumulation of inventories added 1.4 percentage points to real GDP growth
      after a 1.2 percentage point subtraction in Q1.</p>
      
      <p>Retail inventories jumped 1.0% (6.6% y/y) after a 1.4% rise last
      quarter. Auto inventories increased 2.3% (13.3% y/y) following a 3.2% Q2 gain. Nonauto
      inventories increased 0.4% (3.5% y/y), the firmest rise in six months.
      Building materials inventories rose 0.7% (2.9% y/y) after falling during
      Q2. General merchandise store inventories gained 0.3% (2.6% y/y) after a
      0.2% Q2 decline while food &amp; beverage store inventories also rose 0.3% (2.7% y/y). 
      Furniture &amp; home furnishings inventories gained 0.2% (6.2% y/y) after a 2.4% Q2 jump.
      Clothing inventories inched 0.1% higher for a second month following a
      0.4% gain during Q2.</p>
      
      <p>Factory sector inventories ticked 0.1% higher (3.9% y/y) reflecting a
      0.5% increase (5.9% y/y) in durables and a 0.4% decline (+0.8% y/y) in
      nondurables. The 0.1% uptick (7.9% y/y) in wholesale inventories followed
      a moderated 1.5% increase last quarter and reflected a 0.3% gain (8.4% y/y) in durables. 
      Nondurables inventories were unchanged (7.0% y/y) following two months of decline.</p>
      
      <p>The latest inventory gains were accompanied by a strengthened 0.8% increase
      (5.3% y/y) in business sales. Merchant wholesale sales gained 0.7% (7.5%
      y/y). Retail sales increased a lessened 0.3% (3.9% y/y) and excluding
      autos sales also gained 0.3% (3.4% y/y). Shipments from the factory
      sector jumped 1.2% (4.3% y/y), the strongest increase since November.</p>
      
      <p>The overall inventory-to-sales ratio remained at 1.29 for a fifth
      straight month, down a bit from the 1.31 January high. The I/S ratio in the wholesale sector
      slipped to 1.16 and in the factory sector it edged down to 1.29. The retail
      sector inventory-to-sales ratio ticked up to 1.43 while the nonauto
      retail ratio remained at 1.22 for a third month.</p>
      
      <p>The manufacturing and trade data are in Haver's <b>USECON</b> database.</p>
      
      <p><a href="/comment/140912l_big.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/140912l.png"></a>
      <a href="/comment/140912m_big.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/140912m.png"></a></p>
      
      <table class="centered" width="100%" border="0" cellspacing="0">
	<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
   
        <thead>
          <tr>
            <th class="firstcol" scope="col" >Manufacturing &amp;
              Trade (%)</th>
            <th scope="col" >Jul</th>
            <th scope="col" >Jun</th>
            <th scope="col" >May</th>
            <th scope="col" >Jul Y/Y</th>
            <th scope="col" >2013</th>
            <th scope="col" >2012</th>
            <th scope="col" >2011</th>
          </tr>
        </thead>
        <tbody>
          <tr>
            <td class="firstcol" ><b>Business Inventories</b></td>
            <td  >0.4</td>
            <td  >0.4</td>
            <td  >0.5</td>
            <td  >5.9</td>
            <td  >4.3</td>
            <td  >4.9</td>
            <td  >7.9</td>
          </tr>
          <tr class="odd">
            <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp;Retail</td>
            <td  >1.0</td>
            <td  >0.7</td>
            <td  >0.2</td>
            <td  >6.6</td>
            <td  >7.1</td>
            <td  >7.4</td>
            <td  >3.7</td>
          </tr>
          <tr>
            <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp;&nbsp;Retail excl. Motor
              Vehicles</td>
            <td  >0.4</td>
            <td  >0.3</td>
            <td  >0.0</td>
            <td  >3.5</td>
            <td  >3.8</td>
            <td  >3.2</td>
            <td  >3.5</td>
          </tr>
          <tr class="odd">
            <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp;Merchant Wholesalers</td>
            <td  >0.1</td>
            <td  >0.2</td>
            <td  >0.3</td>
            <td  >7.9</td>
            <td  >4.0</td>
            <td  >5.5</td>
            <td  >9.2</td>
          </tr>
          <tr>
            <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp;Manufacturing</td>
            <td  >0.1</td>
            <td  >0.2</td>
            <td  >0.8</td>
            <td  >3.9</td>
            <td  >2.3</td>
            <td  >2.4</td>
            <td  >10.2</td>
          </tr>
          <tr class="grey3">
            <td class="firstcol" width="1725" colSpan="8"><b>Business Sales (%)</b></td>
          </tr>
          <tr class="odd">
            <td class="firstcol" >Total</td>
            <td  >0.8</td>
            <td  >0.6</td>
            <td  >0.3</td>
            <td  >5.3</td>
            <td  >3.4</td>
            <td  >4.5</td>
            <td  >10.9</td>
          </tr>
          <tr>
            <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp;Retail</td>
            <td  >0.6</td>
            <td  >0.3</td>
            <td  >0.4</td>
            <td  >4.8</td>
            <td  >4.3</td>
            <td  >5.0</td>
            <td  >7.7</td>
          </tr>
          <tr class="odd">
            <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp;&nbsp;Retail excl. Motor
              Vehicles</td>
            <td  >0.3</td>
            <td  >0.5</td>
            <td  >0.4</td>
            <td  >4.1</td>
            <td  >3.0</td>
            <td  >4.0</td>
            <td  >7.1</td>
          </tr>
          <tr>
            <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp;Merchant Wholesalers</td>
            <td  >0.7</td>
            <td  >0.4</td>
            <td  >0.7</td>
            <td  >7.5</td>
            <td  >4.3</td>
            <td  >4.8</td>
            <td  >12.4</td>
          </tr>
          <tr class="odd">
            <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp;Manufacturing</td>
            <td  >1.2</td>
            <td  >0.8</td>
            <td  >-0.1</td>
            <td  >4.3</td>
            <td  >2.0</td>
            <td  >4.0</td>
            <td  >12.1</td>
          </tr>
          <tr class="grey3">
            <td class="firstcol" width="1725" colSpan="8"><b>I/S Ratio</b></td>
          </tr>
          <tr>
            <td class="firstcol" >Total</td>
            <td  >1.29</td>
            <td  >1.29</td>
            <td  >1.29</td>
            <td  >1.28</td>
            <td  >1.28</td>
            <td  >1.28</td>
            <td  >1.26</td>
          </tr>
          <tr class="odd">
            <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp;Retail</td>
            <td  >1.43</td>
            <td  >1.42</td>
            <td  >1.41</td>
            <td  >1.39</td>
            <td  >1.40</td>
            <td  >1.38</td>
            <td  >1.36</td>
          </tr>
          <tr>
            <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp;&nbsp;Retail Excl. Motor
              Vehicles</td>
            <td  >1.22</td>
            <td  >1.22</td>
            <td  >1.22</td>
            <td  >1.22</td>
            <td  >1.22</td>
            <td  >1.21</td>
            <td  >1.23</td>
          </tr>
          <tr class="odd">
            <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp;Merchant Wholesalers</td>
            <td  >1.16</td>
            <td  >1.17</td>
            <td  >1.17</td>
            <td  >1.16</td>
            <td  >1.17</td>
            <td  >1.18</td>
            <td  >1.15</td>
          </tr>
          <tr>
            <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp;Manufacturing</td>
            <td  >1.29</td>
            <td  >1.30</td>
            <td  >1.31</td>
            <td  >1.29</td>
            <td  >1.29</td>
            <td  >1.29</td>
            <td  >1.29</td>
 </tr>
              </tbody>
            </table>
            </span>
</body></html>

Total business inventories increased 0.4% in July (5.9% y/y) after an unrevised 0.4% rise during June. For all of last quarter, faster accumulation of inventories added 1.4 percentage points to real GDP growth after a 1.2 percentage [...]

U.S. Business Inventory Gain Is Steady; Sales Increase Firms

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      <span id="articletext">
      <p></p>
      
      <p><a href="/comment/140912f_big.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/140912f.png"></a>
      <a href="/comment/140912g_big.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/140912g.png"></a></p>
      
      <p>Import prices fell 0.9% during August (-0.4% y/y) following a revised
      0.3% decline during July, earlier reported as -0.2%. A 1.0% shortfall was
      expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. A 4.4% decline (-5.3% y/y) in petroleum
      prices provided the most downward pressure on overall import costs. That
      was accompanied by a 0.1% slip in nonoil prices (0.8% y/y).</p>
      
      <p>Last month's slip in nonoil import prices reflected a 0.6% decline
      (+2.7% y/y) in nonoil industrial supplies prices, the fourth decline in
      the last five months. Capital goods prices were unchanged (0.0% y/y) as
      they were during the prior three months. Nonauto consumer goods prices
      were similarly stable (+0.8% y/y) for the fourth consecutive month. Prices
      for foods, feeds &amp; beverages gained 0.6% (3.4% y/y) following a 1.1%
      jump and motor vehicle prices ticked 0.1% higher (-0.7% y/y) after a 0.7%
      decline.</p>
      
      <p>Export prices declined 0.5% (+0.4% y/y) after a 0.1% uptick. Prices
      have been unchanged since December. A 2.7% drop (0.0% y/y) in foods, feeds
      &amp; beverage prices was the third consecutive month of notable decline.
      Industrial materials prices declined 0.8% (-0.3% y/y) as petroleum &amp;
      product prices were off 3.0% (-3.9% y/y). That followed a 1.4% rise. Motor
      vehicle &amp; parts prices fell 0.2% (+0.4% y/y) following no change in
      July and nonauto consumer goods prices were unchanged (+1.0% y/y) after a
      0.4% rise. Capital goods prices ticked 0.1% higher (0.8% y/y) after a 0.2%
      decline.</p>
      
      <p>The import and export price series can be found in Haver's <b>USECON</b>
      database. Detailed figures are available in the <b>USINT</b> database. The
      expectations figure from the Action Economics Forecast Survey is in the <b>AS1REPNA</b>
      database.</p>
      
      <p><a href="/comment/140912h_big.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/140912h.png"></a>
      <a href="/comment/140912i_big.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/140912i.png"></a></p>
      
      <table class="centered" width="100%" border="0" cellspacing="0">
	<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>

        <thead>
          <tr>
            <th class="firstcol" scope="col" ><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@E8/@E807/@E807.HTM">Import/Export
              Prices (NSA, %)</a></th>
            <th scope="col" >Aug</th>
            <th scope="col" >Jul</th>
            <th scope="col" >Jun</th>
            <th scope="col" >Aug Y/Y</th>
            <th scope="col" >2013</th>
            <th scope="col" >2012</th>
            <th scope="col" >2011</th>
          </tr>
        </thead>
        <tbody>
          <tr>
            <td class="firstcol" >Imports - All Commodities</td>
            <td  >-0.9</td>
            <td  >-0.3</td>
            <td  >0.2</td>
            <td  >-0.4</td>
            <td  >-1.1</td>
            <td  >0.3</td>
            <td  >10.9</td>
          </tr>
          <tr class="odd">
            <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp;&nbsp;Petroleum</td>
            <td  >-4.4</td>
            <td  >-1.7</td>
            <td  >1.7</td>
            <td  >-5.3</td>
            <td  >-2.6</td>
            <td  >-0.3</td>
            <td  >36.5</td>
          </tr>
          <tr>
            <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp;&nbsp;Nonpetroleum</td>
            <td  >-0.1</td>
            <td  >0.0</td>
            <td  >-0.2</td>
            <td  >0.8</td>
            <td  >-0.6</td>
            <td  >0.3</td>
            <td  >4.5</td>
          </tr>
          <tr class="odd">
            <td class="firstcol" >Exports - All Commodities</td>
            <td  >-0.5</td>
            <td  >0.1</td>
            <td  >-0.5</td>
            <td  >0.4</td>
            <td  >-0.4</td>
            <td  >0.4</td>
            <td  >8.1</td>
          </tr>
          <tr>
            <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp;&nbsp;Agricultural</td>
            <td  >-2.8</td>
            <td  >-2.0</td>
            <td  >-1.7</td>
            <td  >-1.3</td>
            <td  >1.7</td>
            <td  >2.4</td>
            <td  >22.3</td>
          </tr>
          <tr class="odd">
            <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp;&nbsp;Nonagricultural</td>
            <td  >-0.3</td>
            <td  >0.3</td>
            <td  >-0.3</td>
            <td  >0.5</td>
            <td  >-0.7</td>
            <td  >0.1</td>
            <td  >6.6</td>
  </tr>
              </tbody>
            </table>
            </span>
</body></html>

Import prices fell 0.9% during August (-0.4% y/y) following a revised 0.3% decline during July, earlier reported as -0.2%. A 1.0% shortfall was expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. A 4.4% decline (-5.3% y/y) in petroleum [...]

U.S. Import and Export Prices Move Lower

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<p><a href="/comment/140912e_big.png" name="modal"><img class="large" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/140912e.png" align="left"></a>
Euro area industrial output showed a strong rebound of 1% in July from its decline of 0.3% in June. However the gain is still not persuasive. In the new quarter, the quarter-to-date calculations show a rise in output at a 2.7% pace that is developing, wholly on the back of this month's rise against a background of chronic weakness. Trends still point lower, just about across the board. Taking this month's gain to heart would seem to be a mistake or an act of hope. 
</p><p>
The three-month growth rate for total output is still withering as the 12-month growth rate erodes from 1.7% to 0.5% over six months to -1.5% over three months. This erosion is in play for all the IP components except for capital goods.
</p><p>
Capital goods output alone is on an accelerating path. Output growth is 4% over 12 months. That slips to 2.6% over six months but it rebounds to a 7.2% pace over three months - underpinned by back-to-back monthly gains in June and July. 
</p><p>
Two days ago we looked at the composition of IP growth across EMU members. Since then, Italy has also reported. With nine of the first euro area members reporting, four have sales falling and five have sales rising. That is not a strong endorsement of a new trend. Moreover, the German gain of 2.6%, given Germany's weight, is responsible for much of the rebound. There are still eight of nine reporting EMU members with output decelerating over three months; Germany is the sole exception there.
</p><p>
While the July rebound in industrial output surpassed our expectations, we should be careful about extrapolating this good news. The breadth of industries as well as the breadth of EMU members show us that weakness is still the predominate trend in Europe. With new sanctions on Russia and counter measures from Russia still in store, who knows what impediment is next? Poland is already struggling under a cut to its fuel supplies. While there is a pending truce in Ukraine, there is no telling how long it will hold or even if it does hold how events there will shape up. We should not expect the Russians to `play fair.' There is still a good deal of uncertainty in the world, and not all of it is in Ukraine. The Middle East is getting hotter with the U.S. promising action in Syria and the Russians - of all people- arguing that U.S. action there would be against international law. Crimea? Ukraine? Those Russian must have a great sense of humor. Nonetheless, all this conflict raises uncertainty and becomes an impediment to growth.   
</p>

<p><img border="0" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/140912.png" width="665" height="230"></p></html>

Euro area industrial output showed a strong rebound of 1% in July from its decline of 0.3% in June. However the gain is still not persuasive. In the new quarter, the quarter-to-date calculations show a rise in output at a 2.7% pace [...]

European Manufacturing Falls Further Behind the U.S.

Job openings less than the number unemployed in July for first time since 2021

Reaccelerating goods price inflation along with sticky services inflation clouds the outlook

Falling oil prices aren't pulling down inflation expectations, pointing to a boost from increased tariffs

Equity market exuberance outpacing macroeconomic data

Apart from Japan, Blue Chip forecasters expect further sizable monetary easing

US production rebounded in Q2, but demand continued to slow

US leader, Germany trailer for real GDP growth over past 3 years

Negative US inflation surprises leading G10 down

Deflation continues in China

Incoming data surprising on downside in US; positive surprises elsewhere

FOMC expects more inflation and less growth than in March

With escalation of Israel/Iran conflict, geopolitical risk has recently surged while US trade policy uncertainty has ebbed

Renewed supply chain pressures point to a rebound in global inflation ahead

Apart from Japan, Blue Chip forecasters look for further significant monetary policy easing

Apart from the US, productivity is moribund

Financial market concerns ebb even though policy uncertainty continues to soar

US tariff revenues nearly doubled in April

Even with expected tariff-induced increases in inflation, BCFF forecasters look for a more aggressive round of monetary easing

USD/EUR exchange rate uncoupling from interest rate differential

Widespread downgrading of 2025 GDP outlook

Trade and fiscal policy uncertainty has exploded with the new administration

Much lower US electricity costs gives it a competitive advantage

Wage growth slowing in the US and Euro area; elevated and sticky in the UK

Stagflation-lite: Blue Chip forecasts below-trend growth and elevated inflation

US policy gyrations boosting policy uncertainty worldwide

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Nonfarm payrolls increased 22,000 during August after rising 79,000 in July, revised from 73,000 and falling 13,000 during June, revised from a 14,000 increase. Expectations had been for an 83,000 rise in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The three-month average change in payrolls of 29,300 compared to 28,300 in July, but stood far below its high of 231,700 in January.

Average hourly earnings rose an expected 0.3% in August after unrevised gains of 0.3% in July and 0.2% in June. Earnings growth of 3.7% y/y equals that in June which is the lowest since July 2024, but has been trending lower from its 5.9% high in March 2022.

The unemployment rate, measured in the household survey, edged up m/m to an expected 4.3% from 4.2% in July and 4.1% in June. It reached a low of 3.4% in April 2023. The unemployment rate, including employees working part-time for economic reasons plus all marginally-attached workers, rose to 8.1% last month from 7.9% In July. It was 6.6% in April 2023.

In the **establishment survey**, private-sector employment in August rose 38,000 after rising 77,000 in July.  Factory sector jobs declined 12,000, off for the fourth straight month. Durable goods employment fell 19,000 after rising 5,000, as motor vehicle & parts hiring declined 7,300 after a 2,000 July gain. Nondurables employment rose 7,000, reversing a 7,000 July decline. Construction sector employment weakened 7,000, down for the third straight month. The number of mining & logging industry jobs declined 6,000, also registering the fourth consecutive month of decline.

Private service-sector employment increased 63,000 during August after improving 85,000 in July. Increases varied greatly amongst service-sector categories. Private education & health sector employment rose 46,000 last month, following a 77,000 increase in July. The number of leisure & hospitality jobs rose 28,000 after a 6,000 gain. Trade, transportation & utilities employment gained 2,000, following a 5,000 increase, but financial activities employment weakened 3,000 after increasing 9,000 in July. The number of professional & business services jobs fell 17,000, down for the fourth straight month as temporary help employment declined 9,800, also off for the fourth month in a row. Information sector employment declined 5,000, after falling 7,000 in July and 3,000 in June. Transportation & warehousing hiring weakened 3,600 last month following a 6,300 drop.

Government sector payrolls declined 16,000 last month following a 2,000 rise. Federal government employment weakened 15,000 and has fallen for seven straight months. State government payrolls declined 13,000 after falling in each of the prior three months. To the upside, local government hiring rose 12,000 following a 17,000 July increase.

Private-sector average hourly earnings rose 0.3% (3.7% y/y) in August, the same as in July. Earnings in the goods-producing sector increased 0.4% (4.0% y/y) in August, double the July rise. In construction, earnings rose 0.6% (4.2% y/y) following a 0.3% rise, while factory sector earnings improved 0.3% (3.9% y/y) after a 0.2% gain. In the service sector, earnings rose 0.3% (3.6% y/y) in August, the same as in July. Professional & business services pay increased 0.4% (5.0% y/y) for the second consecutive month while leisure & hospitality earnings also increased 0.4% (3.7% y/y) after two straight months of 0.3% increase. Information earnings rose 0.2% (4.6% y/y) for the second straight month.

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The length of the average workweek was 34.2 hours in August for the third straight month. The workweek in the goods-producing sector eased to 39.8 hours from 39.9 hours in July. The construction sector average workweek held at 39.0 hours while the factory sector workweek eased to 40.0 hours from 40.2 hours. The average workweek in the private service sector held at 33.2 hours. Information sector hours edged up to 37.0 from 36.9. Financial activities hours held at 37.6. Private education & health services hours eased to 32.7 from 32.8 in July.

In the **household survey**, the unemployment rate increased to 4.3% in August after rising to 4.2% in July from 4.1% in June as employment rose 288,000 after falling 260,000 in July and the size of the labor force increased 436,000 after three straight months of decline. The labor force participation rate rose to 62.3% last month from 62.2%, remaining well below the high of 63.3% early in 2020. The rate for teenagers eased to 34.8%, a five-year low. For workers aged 20-24, the rate plunged to 70.2%, a four year-low. For workers aged 25-54, the participation rate increased to 83.7%, an eleven-month high. For individuals 55 and over, the rate held steady at 38.1% but remained near a 20-year low of 38.0% in June.

The employment/population ratio for all workers steadied at 59.6% last month. It remained below the peak reading of 61.1% in February, 2020 just prior to the pandemic. For men, the rate rose to 65.0% from 64.7% in July and for women, the rate eased to 54.5 % on the heels of a slip to 54.7% in July.

The employment and earnings data are collected from surveys taken each month during the week containing the 12th day of the month. The labor market data are contained in Haver's **USECON** database. Detailed figures are in the **EMPL** and **LABOR** databases. The expectations figures are in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Hiring weakens broadly; factory, construction & government jobs decline.
- Earnings gain slows y/y.
- Unemployment rate increases as job growth lags rise in labor force.

U.S. Payroll Employment Report Reveals Unexpected Weakness in August; Earnings Rise Steadily, but Jobless Rate Increases

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Germany's factory orders declined for the third straight month in July. Real new orders fell 2.9% month-on-month in July, against expectations for a small increase. The drop was sharper than a 0.2% decrease in June; foreign orders declined 3.1% in July, as orders from the euro area contracted 3.8%, and orders from outside the euro area fell by 2.8%. These metrics suggest that demand both inside and outside the euro area remains weak. Domestic orders dropped 2.5% in July, an exact offset to their gain in June. When ranked on growth rates over the last 30 years, all three sector growth rates are below their medians (below a ranking of 50%). However, when ranked on the real index number level, total orders rank at their 55.6 percentile, foreign orders rank at their 79.5 percentile and domestic orders rank at their 15.2 percentile. All-in-all it’s an unimpressive report.

**Orders sequentially and QTD:** Sequential trends are ambivalent but still clearly weak. Sequential growth rates do not show a clear acceleration/deceleration pattern. But for total, foreign and domestic real orders, both 3-month and 12-month growth rates are negative (one exception: foreign orders over 12 months). Domestic orders show negative growth over 6 months as well. Quarter-to-date growth rates are negative for all sectors.

**Sales trends:** Real sales are mixed in July, rising 0.9% overall on declines in two sectors: consumer durables and intermediate goods. Sector sales mostly maintain growth as manufacturing sales are positive based on growth rates over 12 months, 6 months, and 3 months. Consumer goods and intermediate goods sales show deceleration and ongoing contraction. Consumer durable goods and intermediate goods show QTD declines. On the manufacturing & mining to total, manufacturing and capital goods show index standings above their respective 50% on 30 years of data. That also shows above-median growth rates on annual data along with consumer goods and consumer nondurable goods.

**Industrial confidence:** Industrial confidence measures for Germany, France, Italy, and Spain, the four largest EMU members, show improved (but still net negative readings) in July compared to June. Over three months and six months, Germany and Italy show some improvement; France still shows steady deterioration. Spain shows improvement over 3 months and it is only slight improvement. The queue standings for the industrial reading over 30 years of data show Spain with an above-median reading in July. Germany and France are exceptionally weak and Italy has been weaker only 26% of the time based on the queue standing measure. Not only are German orders and demand weak and faltering but the broad EU Commission measures of industrial confidence show broadly weak readings for the largest economies in the EMU.

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Germany

German Factory Orders Plunge on Domestic Weakness

Andrew Cates

**Gold prices and trade policy uncertainty**
This week’s record-breaking surge in gold prices has coincided with renewed volatility in trade policy uncertainty, reflecting the market’s heightened sensitivity to political and legal developments in Washington. A series of legislative challenges to the administration’s latest tariff measures has raised the prospect that parts of the policy framework could be overturned or significantly diluted. That possibility has injected another layer of uncertainty into an already fragile trade environment, amplifying demand for gold as a hedge. Investors appear to be weighing not only the inflationary risks of tariffs that remain in place but also the destabilizing effects of unpredictable policy reversals, leaving gold prices at historic highs and the trade policy uncertainty index elevated.

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**US Tariffs**
Although the data in this chart extend only through June 2025, they clearly illustrate which trading partners would gain the most if US tariff policies were to be reversed. China stands out as the most heavily penalised, with effective tariff rates rising by more than 25 percentage points in just six months. Japan and South Korea have also faced significant tariff hikes, suggesting that their exporters would benefit substantially from any policy rollback. Taiwan, India, and the EU also feature prominently, though at more moderate levels. By contrast, ASEAN economies, Australia, and the UK have seen relatively smaller increases, leaving them less exposed. In aggregate, a broad reversal of tariffs would most immediately alleviate the pressure on East Asian exporters—particularly China—while also reducing costs for US importers and consumers who have been disproportionately affected by higher prices on goods from the region.

250904Z2.jpg

**The Indian economy and US trade policy** 
India faces a particularly sharp squeeze from the latest wave of US tariff hikes, given that the US now absorbs nearly one-fifth of its exports. The imposition of higher barriers has dealt a direct blow to key sectors, such as textiles and jewellery, while also undermining investor confidence. That pressure is clearly visible in the sharp depreciation of India’s trade-weighted currency, which has accelerated in 2025. Rather than offering a competitiveness boost, the weaker rupee has compounded difficulties by lifting import costs and stoking inflation at home. The result is that tariffs have both curtailed India’s export earnings and strained its domestic economy, leaving policymakers with limited options beyond seeking trade diversification and targeted support measures.

250904Z3.jpg

**Global monetary policy** 
The latest Blue Chip Financial Forecasts survey helps explain why equity markets have remained upbeat despite escalating geopolitical and trade tensions. The survey points to an expected sizeable policy easing over the coming year, particularly in the US and UK where forecasters anticipate close to a full percentage point of rate cuts. Australia and Canada are also projected to deliver meaningful reductions, while the euro area is expected to ease more modestly. Japan stands out as the exception, with expectations tilted toward further tightening. For equities, these projections of broad-based rate cuts provide a crucial cushion—supporting valuations, lowering discount rates, and reinforcing the sense that policymakers are prepared to offset the drag from tariffs and slowing global growth.

250904Z4.jpg

**Euro area inflation** 
By contrast with the US and UK, where forecasters in the latest Blue Chip Financial Forecasts survey anticipate close to a full percentage point of rate cuts, expectations for the ECB are more restrained. This reflects the fact that the ECB has already delivered a relatively large degree of policy easing, while headline inflation has now fallen back to levels close to its target. Even so, further rate reductions remain likely if underlying price pressures continue to moderate. As the chart shows, services inflation has begun to move lower in line with a clear decline in wage growth, suggesting that disinflationary momentum is building. Should this trend persist, the ECB will have scope to add to its easing cycle, though at a slower and more cautious pace than peers such as the Fed or the Bank of England.

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**Prices and cost pressures in the US corporate sector** 
Corporate profitability has long been one of the best leading signals for US equity cycles, and the measure here (Non-financial corporate profits per unit of output – i.e. profit margins) has slipped from its late-2023 peak and moved sideways for much of the past year. That’s not a collapse, but it does raise questions about how long equities can keep rising without stronger profit momentum. The recent Q2 uptick—a 1.8% annualised gain—came despite a hefty rise in non-labour costs, with margins protected by modest pricing power and a notable 2.2% drop in unit labour costs. Whether that labour relief reflects softer wage pressures or a structural productivity boost—potentially tied to AI—will be crucial in determining if profits can remain resilient, or if this plateau is the prelude to a downturn.

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Equity markets have lost a little ground in recent days and bond markets have been more jittery, as legal challenges to US tariff policies add to a tense backdrop of geopolitical meetings between China, Russia, and India. Gold’s surge to record highs arguably captures the search for safe havens amid this uncertainty (chart 1), while the possibility of tariff reversals keeps alive the prospect of relief for the most affected exporters, notably China, Japan, and South Korea (chart 2). India’s position looks more precarious, with its reliance on the US market colliding with a weakening trade-weighted currency as tariffs bite into growth and investor confidence (chart 3). Monetary policy expectations, however, continue to offer some support, with the latest Blue Chip Financial Forecasts survey pointing to sizeable easing in the US and UK (chart 4). The ECB is expected to tread more cautiously after earlier cuts and with headline inflation now near target. Still, if inflation continues to ease, further action remains possible (chart 5). In the US, corporate resilience is also helping offset some of the gloom: despite tariff-driven spikes in non-labour costs, falling unit labour costs—possibly aided by AI productivity gains—and firmer prices allowed profits per unit of output to rise in Q2 (chart 6).

<iframe data-testid="embed-iframe" style="border-radius:12px" src="https://open.spotify.com/embed/episode/0sd6yLt6aGEGOdVpZ2VZbW?utm_source=generator" width="100%" height="152" frameBorder="0" allowfullscreen="" allow="autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; fullscreen; picture-in-picture" loading="lazy"></iframe>

Charts of the Week: A Few Cuts More

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The U.S. ISM Services PMI increased to 52.0 in August after falling to 50.1 in July from 50.8 in June, according to the Institute for Supply Management. The index had been declining since it reached 53.5 in February. The index hit a recent high of 55.8 in October of last year and remains below the all-time high of 67.5 in November 2021. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a reading of 51.0 for August.

The ISM Composite Index combines the services index and the manufacturing index released on Tuesday. This index rose to 51.6 in August from 49.8 in July. This also was the highest level in six months.

Amongst the services component series, the business activity index rose to 55.0 last month after falling to 52.6 in July. Twenty-three percent (NSA) of respondents reported improved activity while 14.2% reported decline. The new orders index increased to 56.0 from 50.3 in July. Twenty-seven percent (NSA) of respondents reported improved orders while a lessened 16.2% reported decline. The employment series was little-changed in August at 46.5, after falling from 47.2 in June. A lessened 10.3% (NSA) of respondents reported increased employment while a lower 16.8% reported decline. Working lower, the supplier delivery series fell to 50.3 in August after rising to 51.0 in July. Four percent of respondents (NSA) reported faster delivery speeds while 4.5% reported slower speeds.

On the inflation front, the prices index eased to 69.2 after surging to 69.9 in July. A lessened 36.7% (NSA) of respondents reported higher prices while 2.6% reported lower prices. The index has increased from its December 2023 53.1.

Additionally, the new export orders index eased to 47.3 (NSA) in July following a decline to 47.9 in July. Twelve percent of survey respondents reported higher exports while 16.9% reported decline. The imports index surged to 54.6 last month after falling to 45.9 in July. A higher 18.9%% of respondents reported higher imports while a lessened 9.8% reported decline. The inventory change index rose to 53.2 from 51.8 and the order backlog index fell to 40.4 in August after rising to 44.3 in July. These series are not seasonally adjusted and not included in the ISM Services PMI total.

The ISM Services PMI is a composite index consisting of four equally weighted diffusion indexes: Business Activity, New Orders, Employment, and Supplier Deliveries. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the services sector, while below 50 suggests contraction. Supplier Deliveries is the only ISM index that is inversed; a reading above 50 indicates slower deliveries.

The ISM figures are available in Haver's **USECON** database, with additional detail in the **SURVEYS** database. The expectations figure from Action Economics is in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Total index rebounds to six-month high.	
- Business activity and new orders improve.
- Prices index eases.

U.S. ISM Services PMI Increases in August

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The ADP National Employment Report indicated that nonfarm private sector payrolls rose 54,000 (1.1% y/y) during August after increasing 106,000 in July, revised from 104,000 and declining an unrevised 23,000 in June. The Action Economic Forecast Survey expected a 75,000 increase in August.

Small business hiring (less than 50 employees) increased 12,000 (0.4% y/y) in August after an 8,000 July rise, revised from 12,000. Employment at medium-sized firms (50-499 employees) rose 25,000 (1.1% y/y) in August after increasing 53,000 in July, revised from 46,000. Large business hiring (500+ employees) gained 18,000 (2.4% y/y) following a 47,000 July increase, revised from 46,000.

Goods-producing employment rose 13,000 (1.3% y/y) after increasing 32,000 in July. Construction jobs increased 16,000 (2.4% y/y) following a 13,000 gain in July. Manufacturing jobs declined 7,000 (+0.1% y/y), after two months of moderate increase. Natural resources and mining jobs increased 4,000 (4.1% y/y) in August after rising 11,000 in July.

Service-producing jobs increased 42,000 (1.0% y/y) after a 74,000 July gain. Changes amongst industry sectors were mixed. Leisure & hospitality employment rose 50,000 (3.5% y/y) after increasing 45,000 in July. Professional & business jobs improved 15,000 (0.5% y/y) following a 9,000 increase. Information sector employment rose 7,000 (1.1% y/y) after increasing 9,000.  Working lower, trade, transportation & utilities employment fell 17,000 (+0.3% y/y) after rising 20,000 in July. Education & health services posted a 12,000 decline (+0.2% y/y) after falling 40,000 in July. This was the sixth decline in seven months. Financial activities employment slid 2,000 (+1.9% y/y) after a 28,000 strengthening.

By region, in the Northeast the number of jobs rose 15,000 (1.2% y/y) in August following four consecutive monthly declines. Jobs rose 14,000 (1.3% y/y) in the Midwest after increasing 12,000 in July. In the West, jobs rose 8,000 (0.8% y/y) following a 67,000 increase, and in the South, employment rose 4,000 (0.8% y/y) following a 40,000 July strengthening.

Wage growth for job-stayers continued to moderate in August as year/year growth of median annual pay weakened to 4.4% from 4.5% in July, the slowest pace since June 2021. The slowdown in wage growth for job-stayers was widespread across major industries. Wage growth for job-changers was steady at 7.1% y/y, but down from a high of 16.1% in April 2022.

The ADP National Employment Report and Pay Insights data can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. Historical figures date back to January 2010 for private employment. Pay data date back to October 2020. The expectation figure is available in Haver's **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Private payroll job increase is half July’s gain.
- Goods-producing employment slows as factory hiring falls; service-sector jobs also moderate.
- Job-stayer wage growth eases.

Economy in Brief: September 2014

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U.S. Producer Prices Remain Unchanged; Core Index Up 0.1%

U.S. Producer Prices Remain Unchanged; Core Index Up 0.1%

U.S. Industrial Production is Led Lower by Durable Goods

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