Global| Sep 15 2014U.S. Industrial Production is Led Lower by Durable Goods
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Industrial production slipped 0.1% last month (+4.1% y/y) following a 0.2% July increase, revised from 0.4%. The decline was driven by a 0.4% shortfall (+1.3% y/y) in factory output during August after increasing 0.7%, last month [...]
Industrial production slipped 0.1% last month (+4.1% y/y) following a 0.2% July increase, revised from 0.4%. The decline was driven by a 0.4% shortfall (+1.3% y/y) in factory output during August after increasing 0.7%, last month reported as 1.0%. A 0.3% gain in total production was expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Utility output improved 1.0% (0.0% y/y) after a 2.7% decline.
A 7.0% decline last month in automotive products production (+7.4% y/y) reversed a 7.6% July increase. Appliances, furniture & carpeting production fell 2.5% (+7.0% y/y) following strong increases in the prior five months. Working the other way was computers & electronics output. It gained 2.4% (+5.6% y/y) and reversed a 2.3% July decline. Business equipment production was unchanged (5.8% y/y) last month. A 1.0% increase (1.7% y/y) in information processing equipment was offset by a 2.3% decline (+7.2% y/y) in transit equipment (+7.2% y/y). Amongst consumer soft-goods industries, output improved 0.3% (2.0% y/y) after a 0.4% decline. Chemical production gained 0.7% (4.1% y/y) after having been unchanged and food & tobacco production gained 0.5% (1.8% y/y) following a 0.6% July decline. To the downside, clothing output fell 2.3% (+0.3% y/y), the largest of four declines in the last five months.
Within the special aggregate series, high technology industries posted a 1.5% production gain (7.4% y/y). That included a 1.6% rise (9.9% y/y) in semiconductors after having been unchanged over the prior two months. Factory production excluding the high-tech sector fell 0.5% (3.4% y/y). Manufacturing production excluding both high-tech and autos remained unchanged (3.1% y/y) following four straight months of gains between 0.2% and 0.3%.
The capacity utilization rate fell to 78.8%, its lowest level in six months. That remained below the 80.5% high averaged in 2007. In the factory sector, the capacity utilization rate declined to 77.2% and reversed the July increase. Total industry capacity rose an improving 2.8% y/y while factory sector capacity increased 2.1%.
Industrial production and capacity data are included in Haver's USECON database, with additional detail in the IP database. The expectations figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
| Industrial Production (SA, % Change) | Aug | Jul | Jun | Aug Y/Y | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Output | -0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 4.1 | 2.9 | 3.8 | 3.3 |
| Manufacturing | -0.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 3.6 | 2.7 | 4.1 | 3.3 |
| Consumer Goods | -0.8 | 0.7 | -0.2 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 1.5 |
| Business Equipment | 0.0 | 1.2 | -0.3 | 5.8 | 3.6 | 7.5 | 5.6 |
| Construction Supplies | 0.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 5.4 | 4.2 | 4.6 | 3.0 |
| Materials | 0.1 | -0.3 | 0.9 | 4.9 | 3.2 | 4.5 | 4.7 |
| Utilities | 1.0 | -2.7 | -2.0 | 0.0 | 2.1 | -2.1 | -0.2 |
| Capacity Utilization (%) | 78.8 | 79.1 | 79.1 | 77.8 | 78.0 | 77.3 | 76.3 |
| Manufacturing | 77.2 | 77.6 | 77.2 | 76.1 | 76.1 | 75.5 | 73.9 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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