Louise Curley

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070918d.jpg" width="353">
The ZEW indicator of expectations for the outlook six months ahead among institutional investors and analysts fell to -18.1% in September from -6.9% in August. This is the second month in which pessimists outnumbered optimists and is the lowest value since late 2006. The appraisal of the current situation also declined to 74.4% from 80.2%, but still showed a healthy excess of optimists over pessimists. Expectations of output six months ahead and appraisals of current conditions by the financial community are shown in the first chart.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070918e.jpg" width="353">
The decline in the stock market and rise in the exchange rate were, no doubt, factors that affected the opinions in the financial community. The turmoil in financial markets that has followed the emergence of trouble in the US sub prime mortgage market spread to European markets beginning in July. In Germany, the Frankfurt Xetra Dax index of stock prices has declined some 9% from the peak of July 16th. At the same time, the rise in the euro that has gained strength against the dollar and reached an all time high of $1.3886 on September 12th, has cast doubts on continued expansion in exports, a major source of growth in Germany. The courses of the stock market and the euro are shown in the second chart.<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070918f.jpg" width="353">
Opinions in the financial community tend to be more volatile than those of the business community as can be seen in the third chart that compares the IFO measure, based on business expectations with the ZEW measure. The IFO measure is expected to be released early in October.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">ZEW (Percent Balance)</th>
<th scope="col">Sep 07</th>
<th scope="col">Aug&nbsp; 07&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">Sep 06&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">M/M Chg&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y Chg&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Expectations 6-months Ahead</td>
<td>-18.1</td>
<td>-6.9</td>
<td>-22.2</td>
<td>-11.2</td>
<td>4.1</td>
<td>22.3</td>
<td>34.8</td>
<td>44.6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Current Conditions</td>
<td>74.4</td>
<td>80.2</td>
<td>38.9</td>
<td>-5.8</td>
<td>35.5</td>
<td>18.3</td>
<td>-61.8</td>
<td>-67.7</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
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The ZEW indicator of expectations for the outlook six months ahead among institutional investors and analysts fell to -18.1% in September from -6.9% in August. This is the second month in which pessimists outnumbered optimists and is [...]

ĀPessimism Grows in the German Financial Community: Zew Measure Falls to -18.1ĀĀĀĀ

Tom Moeller

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070918j.jpg" width="353">
The International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS reported that chain store sales fell sharply last week. The 1.1% decline reversed all of the gains during the prior four weeks.
The decline reduced the average level of chain store sales in the first two weeks of August to a slight decline versus the July average. It before was a slight increase for the first week alone.
During the last ten years there has been a 45% correlation between the y/y change in chain store sales and the change in nonauto retail sales less gasoline.
The ICSC-UBS retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales (stores open for one year) reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.
The leading indicator of chain store sales from ICSC-UBS rose 0.4% and is up a small 0.5% y/y.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
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<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/surveyw/@S2/@S2.HTM">ICSC-UBS (SA, 1977=100)</a></th>
<th scope="col">09/15/07</th>
<th scope="col">09/08/07</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Total Weekly Chain Store Sales</td>
<td>480.3</td>
<td>485.6</td>
<td>2.9%</td>
<td>3.3%</td>
<td>3.6%</td>
<td>4.7%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>


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The International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS reported that chain store sales fell sharply last week. The 1.1% decline reversed all of the gains during the prior four weeks. The decline reduced the average level of chain [...]

Weekly U.S. Chain Store Sales Fell Sharply

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070918h.jpg" width="353">
The Composite Housing Market Index from the National Association of Home Builders&#39; (NAHB) fell 9.1% m/m to another lowest level since early 1991. The index fell to 20 in September, 49% below the high this past February. It was the seventh consecutive monthly decline.
The index fell across the country but was weakest in the West, down 18.2% m/m. 
During the last twenty years there has been a 76% correlation between the y/y change in the Composite Index and the change in single family housing starts. 
The sub-index from the NAHB for current sales also fell 9.1%, a full 50% below the February high.
The sub-index covering prospective sales in the next six months dropped 16.1% m/m, 51% off the high.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070918i.jpg" width="353">
Traffic of prospective home buyers was unchanged m/m, down only 45% from the February high.
The NAHB index is a diffusion index based on a survey of builders. Readings above 50 signal that more builders view conditions good than poor. 
Visit the <a href="http://www.nahb.org">National Association of Home Builders</a>.
The statement from the latest FOMC meeting, where the target for the federal funds rate was cut by 50 basis points to 4 3/4 percent, is available <a href="http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20070918a.htm">here</a>.

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/SURVEYS/@S4/@S4.HTM">Nat&#39;l Association of Home Builders</a>&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">September</th>
<th scope="col">August &nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">Sept. &#39;06&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Composite Housing Market Index</td>
<td>20&nbsp;</td>
<td>22</td>
<td>33</td>
<td>42</td>
<td>67</td>
<td>68</td>
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</tbody>
</table>
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The Composite Housing Market Index from the National Association of Home Builders' (NAHB) fell 9.1% m/m to another lowest level since early 1991. The index fell to 20 in September, 49% below the high this past February. It was the [...]

U.S. NAHB Housing Market Index Down, Prospects Gloomy

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070918g.jpg" width="353">
At today&#39;s Federal Open Market Committee meeting the target interest rate for Federal funds was cut by 50 basis points to 4 3/4 percent. It was the first drop in the rate since 2003.
The discount rate also was cut 50 basis points to 5 1/4 percent.
For the economy today&#39;s press release indicated worry that &quot;the tightening of credit conditions has the potential to intensify the housing correction and to restrain economic growth more generally.&quot;
Regarding inflation the Fed indicated that &quot;that some inflation risks remain, and (the FOMC) will continue to monitor inflation developments carefully&quot;.
The decision to lower interest rates was unanimous amongst FOMC members.
For the complete text of the Fed&#39;s latest press release please follow this <a href="http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20070918a.htm">link</a>
Trend Inflation and Inflation Persistence in the New Keynesian Phillips Curve from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York can be found <a href="http://www.newyorkfed.org/research/staff_reports/sr270.pdf">here</a>.

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At today's Federal Open Market Committee meeting the target interest rate for Federal funds was cut by 50 basis points to 4 3/4 percent. It was the first drop in the rate since 2003. The discount rate also was cut 50 basis points to 5 [...]

FOMC: Funds & Discount Rates Cut; Spread of Housing Weakness Feared

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070918c.jpg" width="353">
Finished producer prices fell 1.4%, the most for any month since October of last year. That followed a 0.6% increase during July and dropped the year to year percent change to 2.1%, its lowest since January. A 0.3% decline had been expected for August.
Food prices fell 0.2% (+4.7% y/y) for the fourth consecutive monthly decline led by lower prices for pork.
Energy prices cratered 6.6% after the 2.5% surge during the prior month. Gasoline prices fell 13.8% (-5.7% y/y) and home heating oil prices fell 6.0% (-4.5% y/y).Natural gas prices reversed the prior month&#39;s strength with an 8.5% decline (-4.5% y/y).<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070918a.jpg" width="353">
The core finished goods PPI increased a moderate 0.2% which was double the expected 0.1% uptick. The increase matched the average monthly rise of 0.2% so far this year.
Passenger car prices increased 0.5% but household furniture prices fell a modest 0.2% for the second monthly decline.
Capital equipment prices rose 0.1% for the second consecutive month. the modest increase led by a 0.9% decline in prices of light motor trucks.
Intermediate goods prices dropped 1.2% as the index excluding food &amp; energy prices fell 0.5%, the first m/m decline since last November. <img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070918b.jpg" width="353">
The crude materials PPI reversed all of the prior month&#39;s increase with a 3.0% drop as food prices fell 1.4%, reversing all of the prior month&#39;s increase. The core crude materials PPI jumped 1.4% on the strength of iron &amp; steel scrap prices. 

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@E8/@E802/@E80201/@E80201.HTM">Producer Price Index</a></th>
<th scope="col">August</th>
<th scope="col">July</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Finished Goods</td>
<td>-1.4%</td>
<td>0.6%&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp; 2.1%&nbsp;</td>
<td>2.9%</td>
<td>&nbsp;4.9%&nbsp;</td>
<td>3.6%&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Core</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
<td>&nbsp;2.2%</td>
<td>1.4%</td>
<td>2.4%</td>
<td>1.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Intermediate Goods</td>
<td>-1.2%</td>
<td>0.6%</td>
<td>2.2%</td>
<td>6.4%</td>
<td>&nbsp;8.0%</td>
<td>6.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Core</td>
<td>-0.5%</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>2.5%</td>
<td>6.0%</td>
<td>&nbsp;5.5%</td>
<td>5.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Crude Goods</td>
<td>-3.0%</td>
<td>&nbsp;1.2%&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;13.2%</td>
<td>1.4%</td>
<td>14.6%</td>
<td>&nbsp;17.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Core</td>
<td>1.3%</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
<td>&nbsp;13.8%</td>
<td>20.9%</td>
<td>4.9%</td>
<td>&nbsp;26.5%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
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Finished producer prices fell 1.4%, the most for any month since October of last year. That followed a 0.6% increase during July and dropped the year to year percent change to 2.1%, its lowest since January. A 0.3% decline had been [...]

U.S. PPI Fell Sharply; Core Prices Tame, Food Down, Oil Cratered

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070918c.jpg" width="353">
Finished producer prices fell 1.4%, the most for any month since October of last year. That followed a 0.6% increase during July and dropped the year to year percent change to 2.1%, its lowest since January. A 0.3% decline had been expected for August.
Food prices fell 0.2% (+4.7% y/y) for the fourth consecutive monthly decline led by lower prices for pork.
Energy prices cratered 6.6% after the 2.5% surge during the prior month. Gasoline prices fell 13.8% (-5.7% y/y) and home heating oil prices fell 6.0% (-4.5% y/y).Natural gas prices reversed the prior month&#39;s strength with an 8.5% decline (-4.5% y/y).<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070918a.jpg" width="353">
The core finished goods PPI increased a moderate 0.2% which was double the expected 0.1% uptick. The increase matched the average monthly rise of 0.2% so far this year.
Passenger car prices increased 0.5% but household furniture prices fell a modest 0.2% for the second monthly decline.
Capital equipment prices rose 0.1% for the second consecutive month. the modest increase led by a 0.9% decline in prices of light motor trucks.
Intermediate goods prices dropped 1.2% as the index excluding food &amp; energy prices fell 0.5%, the first m/m decline since last November. <img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070918b.jpg" width="353">
The crude materials PPI reversed all of the prior month&#39;s increase with a 3.0% drop as food prices fell 1.4%, reversing all of the prior month&#39;s increase. The core crude materials PPI jumped 1.4% on the strength of iron &amp; steel scrap prices. 

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@E8/@E802/@E80201/@E80201.HTM">Producer Price Index</a></th>
<th scope="col">August</th>
<th scope="col">July</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Finished Goods</td>
<td>-1.4%</td>
<td>0.6%&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp; 2.1%&nbsp;</td>
<td>2.9%</td>
<td>&nbsp;4.9%&nbsp;</td>
<td>3.6%&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Core</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
<td>&nbsp;2.2%</td>
<td>1.4%</td>
<td>2.4%</td>
<td>1.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Intermediate Goods</td>
<td>-1.2%</td>
<td>0.6%</td>
<td>2.2%</td>
<td>6.4%</td>
<td>&nbsp;8.0%</td>
<td>6.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Core</td>
<td>-0.5%</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>2.5%</td>
<td>6.0%</td>
<td>&nbsp;5.5%</td>
<td>5.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Crude Goods</td>
<td>-3.0%</td>
<td>&nbsp;1.2%&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;13.2%</td>
<td>1.4%</td>
<td>14.6%</td>
<td>&nbsp;17.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Core</td>
<td>1.3%</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
<td>&nbsp;13.8%</td>
<td>20.9%</td>
<td>4.9%</td>
<td>&nbsp;26.5%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
 Pessimism Grows in the German Financial Community: Zew Measure Falls to -18.1     
by <a href="/comment/Curley.html">Louise Curley</a> September 18, 2007


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070918d.jpg" width="353">
The ZEW indicator of expectations for the outlook six months ahead among institutional investors and analysts fell to -18.1% in September from -6.9% in August. This is the second month in which pessimists outnumbered optimists and is the lowest value since late 2006. The appraisal of the current situation also declined to 74.4% from 80.2%, but still showed a healthy excess of optimists over pessimists. Expectations of output six months ahead and appraisals of current conditions by the financial community are shown in the first chart.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070918e.jpg" width="353">
The decline in the stock market and rise in the exchange rate were, no doubt, factors that affected the opinions in the financial community. The turmoil in financial markets that has followed the emergence of trouble in the US sub prime mortgage market spread to European markets beginning in July. In Germany, the Frankfurt Xetra Dax index of stock prices has declined some 9% from the peak of July 16th. At the same time, the rise in the euro that has gained strength against the dollar and reached an all time high of $1.3886 on September 12th, has cast doubts on continued expansion in exports, a major source of growth in Germany. The courses of the stock market and the euro are shown in the second chart.<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070918f.jpg" width="353">
Opinions in the financial community tend to be more volatile than those of the business community as can be seen in the third chart that compares the IFO measure, based on business expectations with the ZEW measure. The IFO measure is expected to be released early in October.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">ZEW (Percent Balance)</th>
<th scope="col">Sep 07</th>
<th scope="col">Aug&nbsp; 07&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">Sep 06&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">M/M Chg&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y Chg&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Expectations 6-months Ahead</td>
<td>-18.1</td>
<td>-6.9</td>
<td>-22.2</td>
<td>-11.2</td>
<td>4.1</td>
<td>22.3</td>
<td>34.8</td>
<td>44.6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Current Conditions</td>
<td>74.4</td>
<td>80.2</td>
<td>38.9</td>
<td>-5.8</td>
<td>35.5</td>
<td>18.3</td>
<td>-61.8</td>
<td>-67.7</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
FOMC: Funds & Discount Rates Cut; Spread of Housing Weakness Feared 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> September 18, 2007


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070918g.jpg" width="353">
At today&#39;s Federal Open Market Committee meeting the target interest rate for Federal funds was cut by 50 basis points to 4 3/4 percent. It was the first drop in the rate since 2003.
The discount rate also was cut 50 basis points to 5 1/4 percent.
For the economy today&#39;s press release indicated worry that &quot;the tightening of credit conditions has the potential to intensify the housing correction and to restrain economic growth more generally.&quot;
Regarding inflation the Fed indicated that &quot;that some inflation risks remain, and (the FOMC) will continue to monitor inflation developments carefully&quot;.
The decision to lower interest rates was unanimous amongst FOMC members.
For the complete text of the Fed&#39;s latest press release please follow this <a href="http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20070918a.htm">link</a>
Trend Inflation and Inflation Persistence in the New Keynesian Phillips Curve from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York can be found <a href="http://www.newyorkfed.org/research/staff_reports/sr270.pdf">here</a>.

U.S. NAHB Housing Market Index Down, Prospects Gloomy 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> September 18, 2007


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070918h.jpg" width="353">
The Composite Housing Market Index from the National Association of Home Builders&#39; (NAHB) fell 9.1% m/m to another lowest level since early 1991. The index fell to 20 in September, 49% below the high this past February. It was the seventh consecutive monthly decline.
The index fell across the country but was weakest in the West, down 18.2% m/m. 
During the last twenty years there has been a 76% correlation between the y/y change in the Composite Index and the change in single family housing starts. 
The sub-index from the NAHB for current sales also fell 9.1%, a full 50% below the February high.
The sub-index covering prospective sales in the next six months dropped 16.1% m/m, 51% off the high.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070918i.jpg" width="353">
Traffic of prospective home buyers was unchanged m/m, down only 45% from the February high.
The NAHB index is a diffusion index based on a survey of builders. Readings above 50 signal that more builders view conditions good than poor. 
Visit the <a href="http://www.nahb.org">National Association of Home Builders</a>.
The statement from the latest FOMC meeting, where the target for the federal funds rate was cut by 50 basis points to 4 3/4 percent, is available <a href="http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20070918a.htm">here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/SURVEYS/@S4/@S4.HTM">Nat&#39;l Association of Home Builders</a>&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">September</th>
<th scope="col">August &nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">Sept. &#39;06&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Composite Housing Market Index</td>
<td>20&nbsp;</td>
<td>22</td>
<td>33</td>
<td>42</td>
<td>67</td>
<td>68</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Weekly U.S. Chain Store Sales Fell Sharply 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> September 18, 2007


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070918j.jpg" width="353">
The International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS reported that chain store sales fell sharply last week. The 1.1% decline reversed all of the gains during the prior four weeks.
The decline reduced the average level of chain store sales in the first two weeks of August to a slight decline versus the July average. It before was a slight increase for the first week alone.
During the last ten years there has been a 45% correlation between the y/y change in chain store sales and the change in nonauto retail sales less gasoline.
The ICSC-UBS retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales (stores open for one year) reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.
The leading indicator of chain store sales from ICSC-UBS rose 0.4% and is up a small 0.5% y/y.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/surveyw/@S2/@S2.HTM">ICSC-UBS (SA, 1977=100)</a></th>
<th scope="col">09/15/07</th>
<th scope="col">09/08/07</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Total Weekly Chain Store Sales</td>
<td>480.3</td>
<td>485.6</td>
<td>2.9%</td>
<td>3.3%</td>
<td>3.6%</td>
<td>4.7%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>


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The current account deficits in the three Baltic countries, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania have sky rocketed in the last year or so. In the first quarter of this year, Lithuania reported that its current account deficit as a percent of Gross Domestic Product was 12%, For Estonia, the figure was 17% and for Latvia, 27%. The first chart shows the current account deficits as a percentage of GDP for the three countries.<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070917f.jpg" width="353"><img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070917g.jpg" width="353">
All three countries have experienced high rates of growth largely as a result of increased consumption and residential investments. In all three countries, the net inflow of foreign funds has helped to finance this growth. Of some concern, however, is the predominance of &quot;other investments&quot;. These inflows have exceeded the net inflow of both direct and portfolio investments in the last year or so as can be seen in the second, third and fourth charts. The net inflow of &quot;other investments&quot; more than doubled between 2005 and 2006 in Estonia and Latvia and almost doubled in Lithuania. &quot;Other investments,&quot; which include, among other things, loans to banks and unaffiliated persons tend to be more short-term oriented and more volatile than either direct or portfolio investment. The fifth chart that shows short-term and long-term &quot;other investment&quot; liabilities for Estonia, the only one of the three countries that reports short and long &quot;other investments&quot;.<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070917i.jpg" width="353"><img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070917h.jpg" width="353">
The extraordinarily large deficits have led to a down grading of the ratings on the external debt of these countries. In addition, concerns are being raised regarding the safety of their currencies. Economic trends in these countries can be tracked in the Haver data base EMERGECW and daily changes in the foreign exchange rates can be tracked in the Haver data base INTDAILY. Later this month second quarter data on the balance of payments will be released. <img align="center" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070917j.jpg" width="353">

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">Q1 2007</th>
<th scope="col">Q4 2006&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">Q3 2006&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">Q2&nbsp;2006</th>
<th scope="col">Q1&nbsp;2006&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">Q4&nbsp; 2005</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td colspan="9">CURRENT ACCOUNT/GDP&nbsp; (%)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Estonia</td>
<td>-16.88</td>
<td>-15.25</td>
<td>-16.23</td>
<td>-15.18</td>
<td>-15.41</td>
<td>-8.29</td>
<td>-15.52</td>
<td>-9.97</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Latvia</td>
<td>-27.21</td>
<td>-27.34</td>
<td>-23.41</td>
<td>-15.88</td>
<td>-16.48</td>
<td>-15.28</td>
<td>-20.78</td>
<td>-12.47</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Lithuania</td>
<td>-12.13</td>
<td>-12.30</td>
<td>-12.28</td>
<td>-8.70</td>
<td>-9.98</td>
<td>-8.12</td>
<td>-10.82</td>
<td>-7.15</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td colspan="9">NET INFLOW OF &quot;OTHER INVESTMENT&quot;</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Estonia&nbsp; (Mil. Kroon)</td>
<td>7097.7</td>
<td>9600.5</td>
<td>15370.6</td>
<td>8940.2</td>
<td>11118.4</td>
<td>6919.17</td>
<td>44029.8</td>
<td>2053.8</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Latvia&nbsp; (Mil. Lats)</td>
<td>715.4</td>
<td>700.1</td>
<td>879.3</td>
<td>499.4</td>
<td>448.8</td>
<td>312.3</td>
<td>2522.3</td>
<td>1261.9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Lithuania&nbsp; (Mil. Litas)</td>
<td>2334.8</td>
<td>2730.2</td>
<td>3541.3</td>
<td>1933.1</td>
<td>936.2</td>
<td>2059.5</td>
<td>9140.8</td>
<td>5063.4</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
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The current account deficits in the three Baltic countries, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania have sky rocketed in the last year or so. In the first quarter of this year, Lithuania reported that its current account deficit as a percent of [...]

Baltic Current Account Deficits in the Stratosphere

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070917d.jpg" width="353">
The index of manufacturing activity in New York State in September. The Index of General Business Conditions fell 10.4 points to 14.70 after its 1.4 point drop in August. A shallower decline to 18 had been expected. The figures are reported by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Since the series&#39; inception in 2001 there has been a 75% correlation between the index level and the three month change in U.S. factory sector industrial production.
Fewer new orders were reflected in the index&#39;s decline but the index for employment rose. The shipments index fell a whopping 23.73 points to a record low in negative territory.
Like the Philadelphia Fed Index of General Business Conditions, the Empire State Business Conditions Index reflects answers to an independent survey question; it is not a weighted combination of the components.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070917e.jpg" width="353">
Pricing pressure eased somewhat as the prices paid index rose into positive territory for the first time in three month. Since 2001 there has been an 88% correlation between the index of prices paid and the three month change in the core intermediate materials PPI.
The Empire State index of expected business conditions in six months reversed most of its August improvement and fell 1.6% points.
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey is a monthly survey of manufacturers in New York State conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Participants from across the state in a variety of industries respond to a questionnaire and report the change in a variety of indicators from the previous month. Respondents also state the likely direction of these same indicators six months ahead. April 2002 is the first report, although survey data date back to July 2001.
For more on the Empire State Manufacturing Survey, including methodologies and the latest report, click <a href="http://www.newyorkfed.org/survey/empire/empiresurvey_overview.html">here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/SURVEYS/@S5/@S511/@S511.HTM">Empire State Manufacturing Survey</a> </th>
<th scope="col">September</th>
<th scope="col">August</th>
<th scope="col">Sept. &#39;06 </th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">General Business Conditions (diffusion index)</td>
<td>14.70</td>
<td>25.06</td>
<td>15.40</td>
<td>20.33</td>
<td>15.62</td>
<td>28.70</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>


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The index of manufacturing activity in New York State in September. The Index of General Business Conditions fell 10.4 points to 14.70 after its 1.4 point drop in August. A shallower decline to 18 had been expected. The figures are [...]

U.S. Empire State Index Down Sharply This Month

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Trade and fiscal policy uncertainty has exploded with the new administration

Much lower US electricity costs gives it a competitive advantage

Wage growth slowing in the US and Euro area; elevated and sticky in the UK

Stagflation-lite: Blue Chip forecasts below-trend growth and elevated inflation

US policy gyrations boosting policy uncertainty worldwide

Expected tariff hikes have boosted inflation expectations

US and Japan ended 2024 on solid ground in contrast to Europe

US economy expected to outperform other major economies in 2025

Only modest evidence of AI-related surge in US productivity growth

Previous Trump tariffs fading. A boost from new tariffs ahead?

Heavy US manufacturing states underperforming while Sun Belt states outperforming

Rising long-term yields a global phenomenon

US financial market concerns shifting from growth to inflation

Economic activity is picking up in the US but remains lackluster abroad

Policy uncertainty has surged since the US national elections.

Recent turnaround in US economic surprises leading to increases in rate-cut expectations

The outlook has brightened in the US, while it has dimmed for other major economies

Headline US PCE inflation elevated by sticky services prices

US and global equity prices have recently diverged

US leading global upturn in economic surprises

Blue Chip forecasters look for further significant monetary easing apart from Japan

Recent rise in global supply chain pressures could augur a pickup in global inflation pressures

Underperforming German economy generating increased policy uncertainty relative to Europe and the US

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Andrew Cates

**China-US shipping activity** 
The economic fallout from escalating US-China trade tensions is becoming increasingly visible in the data. A clear example is the chart below, which highlights a sharp drop in vessel arrivals at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, along with a notable decline in ships waiting offshore. These trends point to a tangible weakening in bilateral trade flows, as the effects of tit-for-tat tariffs imposed by both countries begin to bite. Given the outsized role the US and China play in global commerce, this slowdown is likely to reverberate through global supply chains, weighing on trade volumes, dampening demand, and curbing economic growth worldwide.

250501Z1.jpg

**GDP growth in Q1**
Data this week showed that the US economy contracted, albeit modestly, in Q1 even as the euro area recorded a modest expansion—an unusual divergence. The contraction in US GDP can be largely attributed to a sharp increase in imports, as firms rushed to front-load purchases ahead of anticipated tariff hikes. In addition, domestic demand was subdued, with weaker contributions from both consumer spending and government consumption. This decoupling between the US and euro area economies is particularly striking given the current global focus on the US dollar. While the euro area has shown unexpected signs of resilience, the US downturn raises important questions about its underlying momentum, especially as trade dynamics and policy uncertainty continue to cloud the outlook.

250501Z2.jpg

**The US dollar versus yield differentials**
Chart 3 below illustrates a sharp breakdown in the correlation between the US-Germany 10-year yield differential and the EUR/USD exchange rate. Historically, the dollar has moved closely with interest rate spreads, as yield-seeking capital flowed into US assets. But since early 2025—and more acutely following the April tariff actions—the dollar has weakened markedly even as the yield spread has narrowed only modestly. This decoupling underscores a critical shift: capital markets are reacting not just to monetary policy, but to rising trade and geopolitical uncertainty. In other words, the exchange rate is now being driven as much by risk sentiment as by interest rate arbitrage.

250501Z3.jpg

**The US economy’s structural outperformance and the dollar**
A second dynamic, captured in the next chart, reveals a tight correlation between the US real effective exchange rate and the potential GDP growth differential between the US and euro area over the past 50-60 years. This raises the question: has dollar strength (until recently) merely been a reflection of US growth leadership—or are capital inflows themselves helping to sustain this growth outperformance? In effect, the tail may be wagging the dog. Global investors have long allocated capital to the US, attracted by its macroeconomic resilience, technological leadership, and deep, liquid financial markets. The danger now is that the US trade war may disrupt this equilibrium. A sharp or sustained reduction in capital inflows could undermine growth, weaken the dollar, and trigger broader financial instability. Moreover, reversing this dynamic is not straightforward—barring a credible structural resurgence in European (or Asian) growth, the global investment landscape remains tilted toward the US.

250501Z4.jpg

**US competitiveness versus Europe, China and Japan** 
The next chart below examines relative unit labour costs across major economies since 2011. The US and China have seen a broadly similar trajectory, with steady increases in relative cost structures, while the euro area has remained flat and Japan has seen dramatic improvement. This suggests that, from a cost competitiveness standpoint, the US is not uniquely disadvantaged vis-à-vis China. However, as we discuss further below, this parallel erosion of cost competitiveness is occurring at much higher nominal wage levels in the US, which blunts its ability to regain export share through tariff-related shifts alone. The trade war strategy—absent a corresponding improvement in productivity or structural reforms—risks imposing costs without delivering material competitiveness gains.

250501Z5.jpg

**Average wages in selected developed and developing economies**
This point is reinforced by the final chart, which shows estimates for average monthly wages across countries in 2024. US labour remains much more expensive than in peer or emerging economies. So even if China’s costs rise in tandem with the US, the global supply chain has ample alternatives. 'China plus one' strategies are accelerating, and the US remains structurally misaligned with low-cost production hubs. Tariffs aimed at reshoring supply chains are unlikely to deliver sustained gains unless accompanied by deep supply-side reforms, and risk further disincentivizing foreign direct investment if global firms perceive US trade policy as erratic or punitive.

250501Z6.jpg

Financial markets found a measure of calm this week, buoyed by some subtle shifts in tone from US policymakers. A softening in the administration’s rhetoric around trade tariffs coupled with a less confrontational stance toward Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, helped ease tensions that had roiled markets earlier in the month. Equities rebounded modestly, and volatility indicators edged lower, reflecting cautious optimism that the worst of the policy shocks may be behind us. But beneath the surface, significant downside risks persist. New shipping data point to a pronounced slowdown in US-China trade flows (chart 1), suggesting the damage from recent tariff escalations is already rippling through global supply chains. Meanwhile, incoming data for the US revealed an unexpected contraction in the economy in Q1 and further signs of weakness in the labour market (chart 2). The US dollar, in the meantime, while long supported by superior growth and yield differentials, has begun to decouple from traditional drivers (charts 3 and 4) suggesting growing pressure on capital flows. At the same time, structural imbalances are drawing renewed scrutiny: unit labour cost comparisons show the US steadily losing competitiveness (chart 5), while nominal wage disparities remain stark versus China and other Asian economies, further complicating any effort to restore trade balance without broader reforms (chart 6). In short, while markets may be drawing temporary comfort from a pause in tariff brinkmanship, the deeper economic and financial vulnerabilities exposed this month remain unresolved—and increasingly central to the global macro narrative.

<iframe style="border-radius:12px" src="https://open.spotify.com/embed/episode/3PzXXKrkHcwtOLipohEdnB?utm_source=generator" width="100%" height="152" frameBorder="0" allowfullscreen="" allow="autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; fullscreen; picture-in-picture" loading="lazy"></iframe>

Charts of the Week: Tariff Truce, Tenuous Trust

250501F20.jpg

250501G20.jpg

U.S. light vehicle sales dropped 2.9% (+6.5% y/y) to 17.31 million units (SAAR) in April after surging 10.8% to 17.82 million units in March. The retreat in April vehicle sales accompanied a 1.7% y/y rise in real disposable income through March, which compared to 2.0% growth last year.

Sales declines were broad-based last month. Light truck sales fell 1.3% (+9.9% y/y) during April to 14.34 million units (SAAR), after rising 12.4% in March. Purchases of domestically-made light trucks declined 1.2% (+11.9% y/y) to 11.02 million units, after jumping 12.5% in March. Sales of imported light trucks fell 1.8% (+4.4% y/y) to 3.32 million units, following an 11.6% March surge.

Trucks’ record 82.8% share of the light vehicle market last month compared to 81.5% in March and 80.3% in April of last year. The share averaged 80.3% during all of 2024 versus 53.3% ten years earlier.

Auto sales also declined last month, down 9.5% (-7.5%) to 2.97 million units (SAAR) following a 3.5% March rise. The decline reversed all of the increase over the prior two months. Purchases of domestically-produced cars fell 9.8% (-4.3% y/y) last month to 2.22 million units, after rising 3.8% in March. Sales of imported autos declined 9.6% (-15.7% y/y) to 0.75 million units, following a 2.5% March increase.

Imports' 23.5% share of the U.S. light vehicle market was little changed from 23.6% in March and compared to a May 2023 low of 22.9% and a high of 26.3% in November of 2023. Imports' share of the passenger car market held steady at 25.3% last month and compared to 27.7% in April of last year. It reached a high of 38.7% in September 2021. Imports' share of the light truck market eased to 23.2% last month after falling to 23.3% in March.

U.S. vehicle sales figures can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. Additional detail by manufacturer is in the I**NDUSTRY** database.

250501H20.jpg

250501I20.jpg

- Light truck sales pull back, while auto sales tumble.
- Both domestic and imported sales decline.
- Imports' market share slips further.

U.S. Light Vehicle Sales Fall in April

250501J5.jpg

250501K5.jpg

The ISM Purchasing Managers Index of activity in the manufacturing sector slipped to 48.7 in April from 49.0 during March and 50.3 in February. It remained up from a low of 46.9 in October of last year. A level of 50 is the break-even point between a rising and falling level of activity. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a reading of 47.8 for April. The series reached a monthly high of 63.8 in March 2021.

Two of the five component indexes weakened last month. The April production index fell to 44.0 after declining to 48.3 in March. It was the lowest level since May 2020. A lessened 19.8% (NSA) of respondents reported higher production while an increased 24.2% reported lower output. The inventories index declined to 50.8 last month from 53.4 in March. The index remained up from a low of 43.2 in October of last year.

Moving higher, the new orders index rose to 47.2 last month from 45.2 in March. The index remained below a January high of 55.1. Twenty-eight percent (NSA) of respondents reported higher new orders while 26.7% reported a decline. The employment index rose to 46.5 from 44.7 in March. It was below a high of 50.3 in January. A greater 13.1% (NSA) of respondents reported more hiring while a fewer 16.2% indicated less. The supplier delivery index rose to 55.2 from 53.5 in March. A higher 16.6% (NSA) of respondents reported slower delivery speeds while a fairly steady 6.2% reported a quickening.

The prices index, which is not part of the composite series, edged up to 69.8 (NSA) in April after increasing to 69.4 in March. It was the highest level since June 2022, up from a December 2022 low of 39.4. An increased 49.2% of respondents reported higher prices last month, up from 12.2% in November, while a higher 9.7% reported lower prices.

In other series, the export orders index plummeted to 43.1 in April from 49.6 during March. It was down from the high of 52.4 in January. The imports index fell sharply to 47.1 from 50.1 in March. It was the lowest reading since December 2023. The order backlog index dropped to 43.7 (NSA) last month from 44.5 in March. It was the lowest level in five months.

The ISM figures are based on responses from over 400 purchasing executives from 18 industries, which are weighted according to each industry’s contribution to GDP. These indexes are diffusion indexes where a reading above 50 indicates expansion and a reading below 50 points to contraction. The figures from the Institute for Supply Management can be found in Haver’s **USECON** database; further detail is found in the **SURVEYS** database. The expectations number is available in Haver’s **AS1REPNA** database.

250501L5.jpg

250501M5.jpg

- Declines in last three months follow earlier improvement.
- Production & inventories account for m/m shortfall.
- Prices index edges up to another three-year high.

U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index Indicates Contraction in April

Winnie Tapasanun

250501N.jpg

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The value of construction put in place unexpectedly fell 0.5% m/m in March after rises of 0.6% in February (+0.7% initially) and 0.1% in January (-0.5% previously), data from the U.S. Census Bureau showed. The March reading was the first m/m fall following five straight m/m gains. A 0.3% m/m March rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The year-on-year rate of increase decelerated to 2.8% in March, the lowest since May 2019, after registering at 3.4% in February and January. The latest y/y figure was lower than 8.7% in March 2024; thus, having remained below its recent high of 9.8% in January 2024 and a peak of 18.6% in April 2022.

Private construction slid 0.6% (+2.3% y/y) in March, down for the first time since September, following increases of 0.7% in February (+0.9% initially) and 0.1% in January (-0.7% previously). Residential private construction fell 0.4% (+2.8% y/y) in March, the first m/m fall in six months, after an unrevised 1.3% gain in February. Home improvement building dropped 1.2% (+13.4% y/y), the first m/m decline since December, following a 2.3% February gain; it was 41.1% of the residential private construction. Single-family building edged up 0.1% (-0.8% y/y), the smallest of seven consecutive m/m increases, after a 0.8% February rise; it was 46.6% of the residential private construction. Meanwhile, multi-family building was essentially unchanged m/m (-12.1% y/y) in March following 15 straight m/m decreases; it was 12.3% of the residential private construction.

Nonresidential private construction fell 0.8% (+1.6% y/y) in March after a 0.1% increase in February (+0.4% initially) and a 0.1% easing in January (-0.2% previously). The March fall reflected m/m drops in the following nonresidential private constructions. These included religious (-2.9%; +16.4% y/y), health care (-2.2%; -5.2% y/y), office (-1.8%; +2.7% y/y), educational (-1.7%; -4.2% y/y), lodging (-1.6%; -1.0% y/y), commercial (-1.0%; -5.8% y/y), manufacturing (-0.4%; +3.6% y/y), communication (-0.3%; +2.2% y/y), and utilities (-0.1%; +7.0% y/y). In contrast, private constructions for amusement & recreation (1.5%; 7.0% y/y) and transportation (0.7%; 10.2% y/y) rose m/m in March.

The value of public construction declined 0.2% (+4.7% y/y) in March after holding steady in February (+0.2% initially), reflecting a 0.2% increase (-1.9% y/y) in residential public construction and a 0.2% easing (+4.8% y/y) in nonresidential public construction. The March decline reflected m/m drops in the following nonresidential public constructions. These included utilities (-4.8%; -12.8% y/y), commercial (-1.6%; +40.3% y/y), amusement & recreation (-1.0%; +19.1% y/y), educational (-0.6%; +7.6% y/y), sewage & waste disposal (-0.6%; +10.6% y/y), and health care (-0.4%; +13.0% y/y). Notably, spending on highways & streets, which made up 28.7% of public construction spending, fell 0.5% (-2.4% y/y) in March, the first m/m fall since October, following a 0.9% increase in February. To the upside, the following public constructions rose m/m in March: office (1.6%; 6.0% y/y), transportation (1.4%; 7.3% y/y), public safety (0.7%; 4.1% y/y), conservation & development (0.6%; 4.7% y/y), and water supply (0.6%; 12.2% y/y).

The construction figures can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in **AS1REPNA**.

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- March construction spending -0.5% m/m; +2.8% y/y, the lowest y/y rate since May ’19.
- Residential private construction -0.4% m/m, led by a 1.2% drop in home improvement building.
- Nonresidential private construction -0.8% m/m, down for the second month in three.
- Public sector construction -0.2% m/m, reflecting a 0.2% decline in nonresidential public building.

U.S. Construction Spending Unexpectedly Drops in March, the First M/M Fall Since September

Carol Stone, CBE

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Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose 18,000 in the week ended April 26 to 241,000, seasonally adjusted.  This is higher by 16,000 than the Action Economics Forecast Survey amount of 225,000 and is the largest amount since the week of February 22. The previous week’s actual count was revised up by 1,000 to 223,000, from 222,000 reported initially.

The total number of unemployment insurance beneficiaries – also known as “continuing claims” – in the week ended April 19 was 1.916 million, up 83,000 from the prior week’s 1.833 million; that earlier amount was revised down by 8,000.

The insured unemployment rate, that is, the number of beneficiaries as a percentage of covered employment, was 1.3% in the April 19 week, following 1.2% continuously since the week of January 6, 2024.

Economic conditions vary widely across states and territories.  In the week ended April 12, the highest unemployment rates were in New Jersey (2.39%), California (2.24%), Washington (2.19%), Rhode Island (2.17%) and Massachusetts (1.93%).  The lowest rates were in Florida (0.35%), South Dakota (0.40%), Alabama (0.41%), Virginia (0.45%) and Tennessee (0.48%).  Rates in other notable states include the Illinois (1.85%), New York (1.71%), Pennsylvania (1.54%) and Texas (1.09%). These state data are not seasonally adjusted.

Data on weekly unemployment claims are from the Department of Labor itself, not the Bureau of Labor Statistics. They begin in 1967 and are contained in Haver’s **WEEKLY** database and summarized monthly in U**SECON**. Data for individual states are in **REGIONW** back to December 1986. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Actual initial claims amount is 16,000 more than forecast.
- Total beneficiaries rose by 83,000.
- Insured unemployment rate ticked up to 1.3% after 15 months at 1.2%.

Economy in Brief: September 2007

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