Haver Analytics
Haver Analytics
Global| Sep 18 2007

Weekly U.S. Chain Store Sales Fell Sharply

Summary

The International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS reported that chain store sales fell sharply last week. The 1.1% decline reversed all of the gains during the prior four weeks. The decline reduced the average level of chain [...]


The International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS reported that chain store sales fell sharply last week. The 1.1% decline reversed all of the gains during the prior four weeks. The decline reduced the average level of chain store sales in the first two weeks of August to a slight decline versus the July average. It before was a slight increase for the first week alone. During the last ten years there has been a 45% correlation between the y/y change in chain store sales and the change in nonauto retail sales less gasoline.

The ICSC-UBS retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales (stores open for one year) reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.

The leading indicator of chain store sales from ICSC-UBS rose 0.4% and is up a small 0.5% y/y.

ICSC-UBS (SA, 1977=100) 09/15/07 09/08/07 Y/Y 2006 2005 2004
Total Weekly Chain Store Sales 480.3 485.6 2.9% 3.3% 3.6% 4.7%
  • Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio.   Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984.   He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C.   In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists.   Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.

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