Economy in Brief: August 2020

Economic activity in New York continued to expand in August, but at a rate reduced from July's. The Empire State Manufacturing Index of General Business Conditions declined in August to 3.7 from 17.2. The figures remained up, however, [...]

GDP data still are not in for all counties in Q2. But, for most, the data are in and have undergone some revision and are beginning to stabilize the picture. It is not a pretty one. All the European countries in the table had severe [...]

• Business inventories decline for the sixth consecutive month. • Sales post second straight month of strong increase. • Inventory-to-sales ratio drifts lower. Total business inventories fell 1.1% in June (-5.8% y/y) after declining [...]

• Consumer spending stays strong for third straight month. • Auto sales decline holds back total. The consumer continues to spend, following coronavirus shutdowns in the spring. Total retail sales, including food service [...]

• Productivity rose at a 7.3% annual rate in Q2; gains of this magnitude not uncommon during recessions. • Real output dropped at a 38.9% rate while hours collapsed 43.0%. • Revisions change pattern of growth, but on net small. [...]

• Manufacturing output gains were again broad-based in July though smaller than in June. • Even with three monthly gains, total industrial production still 8.4% below pre-Covid peak. • Another strong gain in auto output to nearly pre- [...]

• Falling incomes offset record low mortgage interest rates. The National Association of Realtors reported that its Fixed Rate Mortgage Housing Affordability Index declined 3.8% to 163.7 in June (+7.9% y/y) from a 0.9% drop in May [...]

Seemingly, no one is worried about inflation. The ratcheting up in oil prices is not having an impact on headline prices. In Germany, the HICP fell by 0.8% in July after rising by 0.5% in June, driving the year-on-year HICP to a flat [...]