Economy in Brief: January 2013

The Empire State Factory Index of General Business Conditions was negative in January for the sixth consecutive month. Moreover, except for one month in 2010, the latest reading of -7.78 was nearly the lowest level of the economic [...]

The producer price index for finished goods declined 0.2% last month (+1.3% y/y) after an unrevised 0.8% November drop. Expectations had been for a 0.1% slip. For the full year price rose 1.9%. Prices excluding food & energy ticked up [...]

Consumers were in a spending mood at the end of last year. Total retail sales rose 0.5% following a 0.4% November increase which was revised up from 0.3%. A 0.2% rise in December sales had been expected, according to Action Economics. [...]

Except for "tail risks", those with a low probability, like failure to raise the debt ceiling, the economic fundamentals appear to be on the mend. The OECD calculates composite leading indicators (CLIs) for 39 countries*. Its CLIs [...]

There's been nothing stealth about recent movements in commodity prices. Many have jumped while others have held firm. That combination has raised the latest commodity price index from the International Business and Economic Research [...]

The Federal Government budget deficit narrowed sharply to $0.26B during December of FY13 versus a deficit of $86.0B last December. Expectations were for a deficit of $21.0B. So far this fiscal year the deficit has totaled $292.4B, [...]

U.S. prices in the foreign trade sector were little changed last month. Import prices slipped 0.1% (-1.5% y/y) after a 0.8% November decline, initially reported as -0.9%. The Action Economics survey looked for prices to be unchanged. [...]

The Q4-to-date column (far right in table) is a telling statistic about the condition of Europe. The current level of the respective IP indices as a centered growth rate over the Q3 base shows that IP is declining across all these EU [...]