Global| Jan 15 2013U.S. PPI Declines For Third Straight Month With Lower Energy Costs
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The producer price index for finished goods declined 0.2% last month (+1.3% y/y) after an unrevised 0.8% November drop. Expectations had been for a 0.1% slip. For the full year price rose 1.9%. Prices excluding food & energy ticked up [...]
The producer price index for finished goods declined 0.2% last
month (+1.3% y/y) after an unrevised 0.8% November drop. Expectations had
been for a 0.1% slip. For the full year price rose 1.9%. Prices excluding
food & energy ticked up 0.1% (2.0% y/y) for a second month versus
expectations for a 0.2% rise. For 2012 prices increased 2.0%. A 0.3% slip
(-1.3% y/y) in energy prices led last month's decline reflecting a 1.7%
drop (-0.6% y/y) in gasoline prices. Food prices were weak as well, off
0.9% (+2.3% y/y) following six consecutive months of gain.
Finished consumer goods prices slipped 0.3% (+1.3% y/y) but excluding food & energy, prices increased 0.2% (2.6% y/y). Within the components, men's apparel prices rose 5.3% y/y and women's clothing costs increased an accelerated 1.5% y/y. Household appliance prices have gained 4.0% y/y, furniture prices rose 2.2% y/y and passenger car prices edged up 0.3% y/y. Capital equipment prices slipped 0.1% last month (+1.4% y/y).
Intermediate goods prices gained 0.3% (0.3% y/y) as energy costs rose 0.9% (-3.1% y/y). Lower food prices, off 0.9% (+7.1% y/y), offset the gain. Core-intermediate prices recovered 0.2% (0.7% y/y. Crude goods prices jumped 2.5% (1.54% y/y) last month as energy prices surged 7.2% (-4.5% y/y) but food prices were off 1.1% (+10.6% y/y). Prices excluding food & energy surged 1.1% (-1.4% y/y).
The PPI data are contained in Haver's USECON database with further detail in PPI and PPIR. The expectations figures are available in the AS1REPNA database.
China's Impact on U.S. Inflation from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York is available here.
| Producer Price Index (%) | Dec | Nov | Oct | Dec Y/Y | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Finished Goods | -0.2 | -0.8 | -0.2 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 6.0 | 4.2 |
| Less Food & Energy | 0.1 | 0.1 | -0.2 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 1.2 |
| Foods | -0.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 6.3 | 3.9 |
| Energy | -0.3 | -4.6 | -0.5 | -1.3 | -0.2 | 15.5 | 13.6 |
| Intermediate Goods | 0.3 | -1.2 | -0.1 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 9.0 | 6.4 |
| Less Food & Energy | 0.2 | -0.1 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 6.2 | 4.3 |
| Crude Goods | 2.5 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 1.4 | -3.1 | 17.4 | 21.4 |
| Less Food & Energy | 1.1 | 0.9 | -1.4 | -1.4 | -5.1 | 18.5 | 32.5 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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