Economy in Brief: 2021

• Coronavirus restrictions, business shutdowns & severe weather cause decline. • Earnings growth accelerates. • Jobless rate holds steady at lowest level since March. The recovery in the labor market came to an abrupt end in December. [...]

The comprehensive EU indexes for December echo some of the recent findings of the Markit indexes for manufacturing and services. We see in the EU framework that the overall index rises month-to-month to 90.4 in December from 87.7 in [...]

• Service sector activity continues to trend sideways. • Component activity remains mixed. • Pricing power eases. The Composite Index of Services Activity from the Institute for Supply Management rose to 57.2 during December after [...]

• Trade deficit increases to highest level since August 2006. • Import rise fueled by higher oil prices. • Exports decline y/y as overseas economies remain weak. The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services widened to $68.1 billion [...]

• State initial claims edge lower, third consecutive decrease after reaching a three-month high in mid-December. • Federal Pandemic Unemployment Assistance initial claims drop to lowest since April, early in program's existence. • [...]

• • • PREVIOUS>>>>>> The Mortgage Bankers Association Mortgage Loan Applications Index edged up 0.8% w/w (+80.5% y/y) in the week ended December 18...... This survey covers over 75% of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications [...]

Service sectors struggle In sharp contrast to the ebullient manufacturing PMIs released yesterday, the services sector readings are weak globally driving the composite PMI measures to extremely weak readings. The average queue [...]

• Factory orders and shipments remain strong. • Inventory accumulation accelerates. • Order backlogs continue to decline. Manufacturing activity continues to strengthen. Factory orders rose in November for a seventh consecutive month. [...]