Global| Jan 06 2021U.S. Factory Orders, Shipments and Inventories Increase in November
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
• Factory orders and shipments remain strong. • Inventory accumulation accelerates. • Order backlogs continue to decline. Manufacturing activity continues to strengthen. Factory orders rose in November for a seventh consecutive month. [...]
• Factory orders and shipments remain strong.
• Inventory accumulation accelerates.
• Order backlogs continue to decline.
Manufacturing activity continues to strengthen. Factory orders rose in November for a seventh consecutive month. The 1.0% increase (-0.4% y/y) followed a 1.3% October rise, revised from 1.0%. A 0.8% November increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
Durable goods orders rose 1.0% (3.9% y/y), which was revised from the 0.9% gain reported two weeks ago. Transportation sector orders increased 2.1% (2.0% y/y) as nondefense aircraft orders surged. Machinery orders strengthened 1.2% (1.3% y/y) while electrical equipment & appliance orders gained 0.7% (-0.1% y/y). The full report on durable goods activity is available here.
Nondurable goods orders, which equal shipments, surged 1.1% (-4.4% y/y) after rising 0.8% during October. Shipments from petroleum refineries surged 4.7% (-27.8% y/y) as oil prices rose. Among other nondurable goods sectors, basic chemical shipments rose 1.5% (3.4% y/y) while paper product shipments gained 0.6% (3.7% y/y). Textile mill shipments improved 0.4% (-2.6% y/y) while apparel shipments edged 0.1% higher (-2.8% y/y).
Shipments of durable goods improved 0.3% (1.0% y/y) following a 1.5% jump. Transportation product shipments rose 0.4% (-1.3% y/y) but nondefense aircraft shipments fell 31.9% (-56.2% y/y). Shipments of computers & electronic products fell 1.4% (+8.2% y/y).
Inventories of manufactured products rose 0.7% in November (-0.7% y/y). Durable goods inventories increased 0.9% (1.1% y/y) while nondurable goods inventories rose 0.5% (-3.4% y/y). Petroleum refinery inventories rose 3.5% (-23.0% y/y) while textile mill inventories gained 0.7% (-5.3% y/y). Food product inventories rose 0.3% (-0.3% y/y), but basic chemical inventories slipped 0.1% (+0.9% y/y).
Unfilled orders eased 0.1% (-6.1% y/y) and have been falling all year. Durable goods backlogs declined 0.1% (-6.1% y/y) as unfilled orders in the transportation sector fell 0.5% (-10.0% y/y). This decline was offset by a 1.0% rise (6.1% y/y) in unfilled orders for electrical equipment & appliances.
All these factory sector figures and West Texas intermediate oil prices are available in Haver's USECON database.
| Factory Sector (% chg) - NAICS Classification | Nov | Oct | Sep | Nov Y/Y | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Orders | 1.0 | 1.3 | 1.3 | -0.4 | -0.1 | 6.8 | 5.9 |
| Shipments | 0.7 | 1.2 | 0.5 | -1.3 | 1.0 | 6.6 | 4.7 |
| Unfilled Orders | -0.1 | -0.2 | -0.2 | -6.1 | -1.8 | 3.9 | 2.8 |
| Inventories | 0.7 | 0.3 | -0.1 | -0.7 | 2.8 | 3.6 | 4.2 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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