Economy in Brief

The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that its Mortgage Loan Application Index rose 15.1% during the week ending February 28; this was just over double the year-ago amount, that is, up 100.9%; the previous week had seen a 1.5% [...]

• The labor market remains firm. • Employment at large companies strengthened last month. The ADP National Employment Report indicated that private nonfarm payrolls improved 183,000 (1.5% y/y) during February following a 209,000 [...]

The Autodata Corporation reported that sales of light vehicles during February eased 0.2% (+2.0% y/y) to 17.04 million (SAAR) from 17.07 million in January, revised from 17.05 million. During the last three months, sales averaged [...]

EMU inflation was dead flat at zero in February; the year-on-year rate ticked down to 1.3% from 1.4%. The German economy saw its year-on-year rate rise in February compared to January. But in France, Italy, Spain and in all of the [...]

The Federal Reserve lowered the target for the Fed Funds rate by 50 basis points to a range of 1.00% to 1.25%. In the Fed's press release, it indicated that "the coronavirus poses evolving risks to economic activity." "The Committee [...]

Retail gasoline prices fell to $2.42 per gallon (0.0% y/y) in the week ended March 1 versus $2.47 per gallon in the previous week. Prices remained below an early-May peak of $2.90 per gallon. Haver Analytics adjusts prices for [...]

• Construction spending hammered 1.8% higher in January. • Unseasonably warm weather in January very likely played a role. • Meaningful upward revisions to previous months should raise construction activity in Q4 GDP. The value of [...]

Let me explain the title. The coronavirus is spreading. And that is clear. The impact on China is huge. That is clear. And yet no economist will forecast recession anywhere- or so it seems. We hear of zero growth or zero growth for [...]