Economy in Brief: 2021

• Headline index rebounds in January; strongest reading since February 2020. • All sub-indices rise, most notably new orders. • ISM-adjusted index tops 60, highest since May 2018. The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Factory [...]

Euro area inflation is negative on a year-over-year basis for five months in a row. On a monthly basis, EMU inflation has fallen in only five of the last 12 months, but the balance between the size of the gains vs. the size of the [...]

• Housing market activity weakens again from record high in November. • Activity in each region declines. The Composite Housing Market Index from the National Association of Home Builders-Wells Fargo declined 3.5% m/m (+10.7% y/y) in [...]

• Purchase applications up but overwhelmed by decline in refinancing applications. • Mortgage interest rates generally rose, reflecting rise in most market rates. The Mortgage Bankers Association Mortgage Loan Applications Index fell [...]

• Gasoline prices reach March 2020 high. • Oil prices increase as pandemic shuts down crude oil output. • Natural gas prices continue to rise with seasonal demand. The price of regular gasoline rose to $2.38 per gallon (-6.2% y/y) in [...]

In January, the ZEW index paints a mixed and somewhat uneven view of its survey universe. For the most part, country/regional level data are little changed. In the aggregate, data are very little changed. The details show a larger [...]

• Declines in home prices & interest rates boost buying power. The National Association of Realtors reported that its Fixed Rate Mortgage Housing Affordability Index rose 0.7% (-0.7% y/y) to 168.2 in November from 167.0 in October, [...]

• Empire State Business Conditions Index decreases to 3.5 in January; fourth consecutive monthly decay. • ISM comparable series edges up to 53.0 from 52.9. • Expectations index falls to 31.9 from 36.3. The Empire State Manufacturing [...]