Economy in Brief

• Business inventories decline for the sixth consecutive month. • Sales post second straight month of strong increase. • Inventory-to-sales ratio drifts lower. Total business inventories fell 1.1% in June (-5.8% y/y) after declining [...]

• Consumer spending stays strong for third straight month. • Auto sales decline holds back total. The consumer continues to spend, following coronavirus shutdowns in the spring. Total retail sales, including food service [...]

• Productivity rose at a 7.3% annual rate in Q2; gains of this magnitude not uncommon during recessions. • Real output dropped at a 38.9% rate while hours collapsed 43.0%. • Revisions change pattern of growth, but on net small. [...]

• Manufacturing output gains were again broad-based in July though smaller than in June. • Even with three monthly gains, total industrial production still 8.4% below pre-Covid peak. • Another strong gain in auto output to nearly pre- [...]

• Falling incomes offset record low mortgage interest rates. The National Association of Realtors reported that its Fixed Rate Mortgage Housing Affordability Index declined 3.8% to 163.7 in June (+7.9% y/y) from a 0.9% drop in May [...]

Seemingly, no one is worried about inflation. The ratcheting up in oil prices is not having an impact on headline prices. In Germany, the HICP fell by 0.8% in July after rising by 0.5% in June, driving the year-on-year HICP to a flat [...]

• Oil prices improve again. • Nonoil prices increase steadily. Import prices increased 0.7% (-3.3% y/y) during July following an unrevised 1.4% June gain. A 0.5% rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. During [...]

• State initial jobless claims declined to 963,000 in the week ending August 8, the lowest level since March 14. • Federal Pandemic Unemployment Assistance new filers decreased to 488,622. • Continuing claims for state programs down [...]