Tom Moeller

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/041221c.jpg" width="353">
The November National Activity Index (CFNAI) compiled by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago fell to 0.12 from a downwardly revised 0.49 the prior month. The figure continues to suggest that the U.S. economy is expanding.
The decline lowered slightly the three-month moving average of the CFNAI to 0.13, the lowest level in a year. A zero value of the CFNAI indicates that the economy is expanding at its historical trend rate of growth.
During the last twenty years there has been a 74% correlation between the level of the CFNAI and q/q growth in real GDP.
The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of economic activity. The indicators reflect activity in the following categories: production and income, the labor market, personal consumption and housing, manufacturing and trade sales, and inventories &amp; orders.
The latest CFNAI report is available <a href="http://www.chicagofed.org/economic_research_and_data/files/cfnai_december2004.pdf"> here</a>.
The future was the topic at <a href="http://www.chicagofed.org/news_and_conferences/news/files/economic_outlook_news_release_2004.pdf"> this</a> Economic Outlook Symposium.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
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<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/SURVEYS/@S5/@S503/@S503.HTM">Chicago Fed</a></th>
<th scope="col">Nov</th>
<th scope="col">Oct</th>
<th scope="col">Nov &#39;03</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">CFNAI</td>
<td>0.12</td>
<td>0.49</td>
<td>0.85</td>
<td>-0.11</td>
<td>-0.40</td>
<td>-1.19</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Chain Store Sales Helped by Lower Gasoline Prices 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> December 21, 2004


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/041214a.jpg" width="353">
Chain store sales rose another 1.6% last week and added to the 1.2% rise during the first full week of December, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS.
The average of sales so far in December is 1.2% below November although strength during the last two weeks nearly recouped all of the declines of the prior two periods.
Consumers&#39; spending budgets benefited from another decline in gasoline prices. Last week, the average pump price for regular unleaded fell 3.2 cents to $1.815 per gallon (+22.2% y/y). The U.S. Energy Information Administration indicated that gas prices are down 10.8% from the peak in late October.
The leading indicator of chain store sales from ICSC surged 1.2% in the latest period, the first gain in six weeks.
The ICSC-UBS retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales (stores open for one year) reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.
During the last ten years there has been a 60% correlation between y/y change in chain store sales and the change in non-auto retail sales less gasoline, as published by the US Census Department.

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/surveyw/@S2/@S2.HTM">ICSC-UBS (SA, 1977=100)</a></th>
<th scope="col">12/18/04</th>
<th scope="col">12/11/04</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
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</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Total Weekly Chain Store Sales</td>
<td>437.9</td>
<td>430.9</td>
<td>3.5%</td>
<td>2.9%</td>
<td>3.6%</td>
<td>2.1%</td>
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The November National Activity Index (CFNAI) compiled by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago fell to 0.12 from a downwardly revised 0.49 the prior month. The figure continues to suggest that the U.S. economy is expanding. The decline [...]

Chicago Fed Nat'l Activity Index Down: Above Trend Growth Still Suggested

Louise Curley

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/041220b.jpg" width="353">
Brazil reported a deficit of $242.2 million on its current account in November. However, for the eleven months of the year, there is a $10,564 million surplus. For the year as a whole Brazil is likely to chalk up a record surplus. For the first eleven months of 2003, Brazil had a surplus of $3,669 million and a surplus of $4018 million for the whole year.
Typically, an emerging country like Brazil tends to have a deficit on current account as a result of the inflow of foreign investment into the country. Indeed, except for the last two years, Brazil has generally, since 1980, run current account deficits.
Among the factors that may account for the recent change in the current account from deficits to surpluses is the faster growth in exports relative to imports, which could have some lasting significance, but capital flows may have had a greater impact. Capital flows, however, are apt to change significantly and capriciously from time to time as can be seen in the comparison of some of the major components of the financial account between the first eleven months of this year with the comparable period of 2003.
For the first eleven months of this year foreign direct investment in Brazil amounted to $15,014 million compared with $8733.8 million in the same period last year. At the same time Brazilians made direct investments of almost $9 billion abroad in the first eleven months of this year, a record amount, compared to a withdrawal of direct investment of $210.5 million in the same period last year. Foreigners sold off $4196.2 million of their portfolio investments in the first eleven months of this year after having purchased $4707.1 million in the same period of 2003. Brazilians bought $791.8 million of foreign stocks and bonds, in contrast to the sale of $190.6 million in 2003.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
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<th scope="col" class="firstcol">Millions of US $ NAS</th>
<th scope="col">Jan-Nov 04</th>
<th scope="col">Jan-Nov 03</th>
<th scope="col">&nbsp;2003&nbsp;&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">&nbsp;2002&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">&nbsp; 2001&nbsp; &nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
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<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Current Account</td>
<td>10563.6</td>
<td>3669.3</td>
<td>4015.3</td>
<td>-7676.0</td>
<td>-23214.3</td>
<td>-24224.4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Financial Account</td>
<td>-10802.9</td>
<td>11101.5</td>
<td>4605.5</td>
<td>8357.4</td>
<td>27088.0</td>
<td>19053.3</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Direct Investment</td>
<td>6059.9</td>
<td>8944.3</td>
<td>9894.2</td>
<td>14083.9</td>
<td>24715.0</td>
<td>30497.6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Foreign Investment in Brazil</td>
<td>15014.4</td>
<td>8733.8</td>
<td>10142.8</td>
<td>16566.4</td>
<td>22457.4</td>
<td>32449.2</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Brazilian Investment Abroad</td>
<td>-8954.5</td>
<td>210.5</td>
<td>-249.5</td>
<td>-2482.2</td>
<td>2257.7</td>
<td>-2281.5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Portfolio Investment</td>
<td>-4988.0</td>
<td>4897.7</td>
<td>5306.7</td>
<td>5118.7</td>
<td>77.2</td>
<td>6955.2</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Foreign Investment in Brazil</td>
<td>-4196.2</td>
<td>4707.1</td>
<td>5129.1</td>
<td>-4797.0</td>
<td>872.2</td>
<td>8650.8</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Brazilian Investment Abroad</td>
<td>-791.8</td>
<td>190.6</td>
<td>180.6</td>
<td>-320.9</td>
<td>-795.2</td>
<td>-1695.9</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
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Brazil reported a deficit of $242.2 million on its current account in November. However, for the eleven months of the year, there is a $10,564 million surplus. For the year as a whole Brazil is likely to chalk up a record surplus. For [...]

Brazil Posts a Current Account Deficit in November, but Should Record a Big Surplus for the Year

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/041220a.jpg" width="353">
The Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators from the Conference Board rose in November by 0.2%, the first up month since May. October was downwardly revised to a 0.4% decline. The Consensus expectation had been for a 0.1% increase in November.
Six-month growth in the leaders continued to weaken to -2.2%. While it&#39;s getting close to call, recession in the U.S. still is not suggested. Negative growth in the leaders exceeding 2.5% preceded past recessionary periods.
Further tempering any negative suggestion is that 60% of the 10 components of the leading index rose over a one month span; the widest breadth of gain since May and the six month breadth rose to 50% versus 30% during the prior two months. The largest positive contributions were made in November by stock prices and the money supply.
The leading index is based on eight previously reported economic data series. Two series, orders for consumer goods and orders for capital goods, are estimated.
In addition, the ratio of the coincident to the lagging indicators (a measure of actual economic performance relative to economic excess) rose for the third month in four to a record high.
The coincident indicators rose by just 0.1% and the six-month growth rate fell to 1.9%, down from the high of 3.3% early this year. During the last ten years there has been an 82% correlation between the six month growth in the coincident indicators and two quarter growth in real GDP.
Visit the Conference Board&#39;s <a href="http://www.conference-board.org">site</a> for coverage of leading indicator series from around the world.
The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis examines &quot;Gasoline Affordability&quot;in <a href="http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/net/20041101/cover.pdf"> this</a> report.

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<thead>
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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/BCI/BCI.HTM">Business Cycle Indicators</a></th>
<th scope="col">Nov</th>
<th scope="col">Oct</th>
<th scope="col">6-Month Chg</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
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<td class="firstcol">Leading</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>-0.4%</td>
<td>-2.2%</td>
<td>1.3%</td>
<td>2.2%</td>
<td>-0.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Coincident</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>1.9%</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>-0.5%</td>
<td>-0.5%</td>
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<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Lagging</td>
<td>-0.1%</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
<td>1.4%</td>
<td>-2.2%</td>
<td>-2.8%</td>
<td>-1.4%</td>
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</tbody>
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The Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators from the Conference Board rose in November by 0.2%, the first up month since May. October was downwardly revised to a 0.4% decline. The Consensus expectation had been for a 0.1% [...]

Leading Indicators Gain First in Six Months

Carol Stone, CBE

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/041217c.jpg" width="353">
Argentina&#39;s economy continues to expand, as Q3 GDP grew 2.9% (quarterly rate), a tenth consecutive quarter of growth after the 2001-2002 contraction and devaluation. In peso terms, real GDP is back now very near its prior peak; in Q3, it was 281.6 billion pesos, compared with a high of 291.7 billion pesos in early 1998. Both consumer spending and fixed investment have grown vigorously, as noted in the table below, although investment looks to be moderating after its initial leap when the economy turned upward in the second half of 2002.
There is still considerable inflation in Argentina, however. The implicit price deflator surged, of course, in 2002 when the peso was de-linked from the US dollar and then dropped sharply. In Q2 2002, the implicit deflator gained 25.9%; it then slowed dramatically, led by export prices, which fell 11.1% in Q1 2003. In the latest quarter, the overall deflator fell 4.0%, but the year-on-year pace has been 10.9% for the last two quarters. Rebounds in prices in the public consumption, investment and export sectors have raised total inflation. On its devaluation at the beginning of 2002, the peso jumped from 1 peso/$1 to 3.80 pesos/$1 by June. Over the following several months it settled back to just about 2.95/$1 in the middle of 2003, and it has hovered there since. The accompanying chart shows what happened to nominal GDP when the de-linking occurred. 
The real growth helps the labor market, of course, with the employment rate reaching a recent high of 40.1% in Q3 (% of population), up from a low of 36.3% in early 2003. Unemployment was down to 13.2% in Q3 (% of labor force). While the employment rate is low by standards of mature industrial countries, the unemployment rate doesn&#39;t seem particularly high. Yes, it&#39;s much larger than in the US, but only a few percentage points more than France and Germany, both just under 10%. Among similar national economies, unemployment is nearly 28% in South Africa, 10.5% in Turkey and just over 11% in the cities of neighboring Brazil. So the situation in Argentina is not particularly attractive, but for all the stresses, the labor market is improving and most fundamentally, the nation&#39;s National Bureau of Statistics and Census is not shy about publishing current data. 

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
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<th scope="col" class="firstcol">% Change</th>
<th scope="col">Q3 2004</th>
<th scope="col">Q2 2004</th>
<th scope="col">Year Ago</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">GDP</td>
<td>2.9</td>
<td>0.8</td>
<td>8.3</td>
<td>8.8</td>
<td>-10.9</td>
<td>-4.4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Private Consumption</td>
<td>2.9</td>
<td>1.0</td>
<td>8.8</td>
<td>8.2</td>
<td>-14.4</td>
<td>-5.7</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Fixed Investment</td>
<td>5.8</td>
<td>2.1</td>
<td>33.1</td>
<td>38.2</td>
<td>-36.4</td>
<td>-15.7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Implicit Price Deflator</td>
<td>-4.0</td>
<td>8.0</td>
<td>10.9</td>
<td>5.0</td>
<td>39.8</td>
<td>-1.8</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Employment Rate (% of population)</td>
<td>40.1</td>
<td>39.4</td>
<td>38.2</td>
<td>37.8</td>
<td>36.6</td>
<td>NA</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Unemployment Rate (% of labor force)</td>
<td>13.2</td>
<td>14.8</td>
<td>16.3</td>
<td>17.3</td>
<td>22.4</td>
<td>NA</td>
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Argentina's economy continues to expand, as Q3 GDP grew 2.9% (quarterly rate), a tenth consecutive quarter of growth after the 2001-2002 contraction and devaluation. In peso terms, real GDP is back now very near its prior peak; in Q3, [...]

Argentina Recovery Continues

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/041217b.jpg" width="353">
The average price for unleaded regular gasoline fell to $1.85 per gallon last week, putting it 6.7% below the November average.
At $41.83 per barrel, the price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil last week was 13.2% below the $48.20 averaged in November and was down 24.2% from the weekly high of $55.18 in late October.
Wholesale natural gas prices have been volatile, but relatively firm at $6.07/mmbtu last week.
For the latest Short Term Energy Outlook from the US Department of Energy click <a href="http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/contents.html">here</a>.
&quot;Do Energy Price Price Spikes Cause Inflation?&quot; is 2003 research from the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland and is available <a href="http://www.clevelandfed.org/Research/Com2003/0401.pdf">here</a>.

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/daily/@D3/@D306/@D306.HTM">Energy Prices</a></th>
<th scope="col">12/13/04</th>
<th scope="col">12/31/03</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">US Retail Gasoline, Regular ($/Gal.)</td>
<td>$1.85</td>
<td>$1.48</td>
<td>26.1%</td>
<td>$1.56</td>
<td>$1.35</td>
<td>$1.42</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Domestic Spot Market Price: West Texas Intermediate ($/Barrel)</td>
<td>$41.02</td>
<td>$32.55</td>
<td>23.6%</td>
<td>$32.78</td>
<td>$31.23</td>
<td>$19.38</td>
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The average price for unleaded regular gasoline fell to $1.85 per gallon last week, putting it 6.7% below the November average. At $41.83 per barrel, the price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil last week was 13.2% below the $48.20 [...]

Gasoline Prices, Down in November, Fell Further in December

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/041217a.jpg" width="353">
Consumer Prices (CPI-U) were tame last month, rose just 0.2% following the 0.6% spurt in October and were in line with Consensus expectations for a 0.2% rise. Prices less food &amp; energy also were in line with a 0.2% gain that matched the prior months increase.
Services prices less energy rose the same modest 0.2% as in October. Shelter prices rose .05% (2.7% y/y), the weakest for any month in over a year. The rental equivalence price measure was unchanged m/m (2.3% y/y) and prices for lodging away from home fell (+6.1% y/y). Health care services rose 0.3% (5.0% y/y) but tuition &amp; child care costs jumped 0.6% (6.8% y/y). Public transportation prices were strong for the second consecutive month and rose 2.4% (0.3% y/y).
&quot;Core&quot; commodities price inflation eased to 0.1% from the 0.4% strength of October. Household furnishings &amp; operation prices fell (+0.7% y/y) as did prices for used cars &amp; trucks (+3.6% y/y). New motor vehicle prices rose 0.7% (0.3% y/y) and apparel prices ticked 0.1% higher (-0.2% y/y).
Gasoline prices fell 1.8% (+31.0% y/y) but fuel oil prices were strong for seventh consecutive month, up 3.5% (38.3% y/y). Natural gas prices rebounded 2.4% (+6.8% y/y) after two months of decline.
The chained CPI, which adjusts for shifts in the mix of consumer purchases, was unchanged. Similar to the PCE price deflator, core chain prices also were unchanged.
&quot;Are Home Prices the Next Bubble?&quot; from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York can be found <a href="http://www.newyorkfed.org/research/epr/04v10n3/0412mcca.pdf">here</a>.

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<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@E8/@E801/@E80101/@E80101.HTM">Consumer Price Index</a></th>
<th scope="col">Nov</th>
<th scope="col">Oct</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Total&nbsp;</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>0.6%</td>
<td>3.6%</td>
<td>2.3%</td>
<td>1.6%</td>
<td>2.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;Total less Food &amp; Energy</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>2.2%</td>
<td>1.5%</td>
<td>2.3%</td>
<td>2.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Goods less Food &amp; Energy</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>0.5%</td>
<td>-2.0%</td>
<td>-1.1%</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Services less Energy</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>2.9%</td>
<td>2.9%</td>
<td>3.8%</td>
<td>3.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;Energy</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>4.2%</td>
<td>19.0%</td>
<td>12.2%</td>
<td>-5.8%</td>
<td>3.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;Food</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>0.6%</td>
<td>3.2%</td>
<td>2.1%</td>
<td>1.8%</td>
<td>3.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@E8/@E801/@E80113/@E80113.HTM">Chained CPI: Total (NSA)</a></td>
<td>0.0%</td>
<td>0.5%</td>
<td>3.1%</td>
<td>1.9%</td>
<td>1.3%</td>
<td>2.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;Total less Food &amp; Energy</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>1.9%</td>
<td>1.1%</td>
<td>1.9%</td>
<td>&nbsp;2.0%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

Consumer Prices (CPI-U) were tame last month, rose just 0.2% following the 0.6% spurt in October and were in line with Consensus expectations for a 0.2% rise. Prices less food & energy also were in line with a 0.2% gain that matched [...]

Consumer Prices Tame, As Expected

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/041217a.jpg" width="353">
Consumer Prices (CPI-U) were tame last month, rose just 0.2% following the 0.6% spurt in October and were in line with Consensus expectations for a 0.2% rise. Prices less food &amp; energy also were in line with a 0.2% gain that matched the prior months increase.
Services prices less energy rose the same modest 0.2% as in October. Shelter prices rose .05% (2.7% y/y), the weakest for any month in over a year. The rental equivalence price measure was unchanged m/m (2.3% y/y) and prices for lodging away from home fell (+6.1% y/y). Health care services rose 0.3% (5.0% y/y) but tuition &amp; child care costs jumped 0.6% (6.8% y/y). Public transportation prices were strong for the second consecutive month and rose 2.4% (0.3% y/y).
&quot;Core&quot; commodities price inflation eased to 0.1% from the 0.4% strength of October. Household furnishings &amp; operation prices fell (+0.7% y/y) as did prices for used cars &amp; trucks (+3.6% y/y). New motor vehicle prices rose 0.7% (0.3% y/y) and apparel prices ticked 0.1% higher (-0.2% y/y).
Gasoline prices fell 1.8% (+31.0% y/y) but fuel oil prices were strong for seventh consecutive month, up 3.5% (38.3% y/y). Natural gas prices rebounded 2.4% (+6.8% y/y) after two months of decline.
The chained CPI, which adjusts for shifts in the mix of consumer purchases, was unchanged. Similar to the PCE price deflator, core chain prices also were unchanged.
&quot;Are Home Prices the Next Bubble?&quot; from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York can be found <a href="http://www.newyorkfed.org/research/epr/04v10n3/0412mcca.pdf">here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">

</table>
<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@E8/@E801/@E80101/@E80101.HTM">Consumer Price Index</a></th>
<th scope="col">Nov</th>
<th scope="col">Oct</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Total&nbsp;</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>0.6%</td>
<td>3.6%</td>
<td>2.3%</td>
<td>1.6%</td>
<td>2.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;Total less Food &amp; Energy</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>2.2%</td>
<td>1.5%</td>
<td>2.3%</td>
<td>2.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Goods less Food &amp; Energy</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>0.5%</td>
<td>-2.0%</td>
<td>-1.1%</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Services less Energy</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>2.9%</td>
<td>2.9%</td>
<td>3.8%</td>
<td>3.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;Energy</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>4.2%</td>
<td>19.0%</td>
<td>12.2%</td>
<td>-5.8%</td>
<td>3.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;Food</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>0.6%</td>
<td>3.2%</td>
<td>2.1%</td>
<td>1.8%</td>
<td>3.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@E8/@E801/@E80113/@E80113.HTM">Chained CPI: Total (NSA)</a></td>
<td>0.0%</td>
<td>0.5%</td>
<td>3.1%</td>
<td>1.9%</td>
<td>1.3%</td>
<td>2.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;Total less Food &amp; Energy</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>1.9%</td>
<td>1.1%</td>
<td>1.9%</td>
<td>&nbsp;2.0%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Gasoline Prices, Down in November, Fell Further in December 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> December 17, 2004


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/041217b.jpg" width="353">
The average price for unleaded regular gasoline fell to $1.85 per gallon last week, putting it 6.7% below the November average.
At $41.83 per barrel, the price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil last week was 13.2% below the $48.20 averaged in November and was down 24.2% from the weekly high of $55.18 in late October.
Wholesale natural gas prices have been volatile, but relatively firm at $6.07/mmbtu last week.
For the latest Short Term Energy Outlook from the US Department of Energy click <a href="http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/contents.html">here</a>.
&quot;Do Energy Price Price Spikes Cause Inflation?&quot; is 2003 research from the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland and is available <a href="http://www.clevelandfed.org/Research/Com2003/0401.pdf">here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/daily/@D3/@D306/@D306.HTM">Energy Prices</a></th>
<th scope="col">12/13/04</th>
<th scope="col">12/31/03</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">US Retail Gasoline, Regular ($/Gal.)</td>
<td>$1.85</td>
<td>$1.48</td>
<td>26.1%</td>
<td>$1.56</td>
<td>$1.35</td>
<td>$1.42</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Domestic Spot Market Price: West Texas Intermediate ($/Barrel)</td>
<td>$41.02</td>
<td>$32.55</td>
<td>23.6%</td>
<td>$32.78</td>
<td>$31.23</td>
<td>$19.38</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
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USD/EUR exchange rate uncoupling from interest rate differential

Widespread downgrading of 2025 GDP outlook

Trade and fiscal policy uncertainty has exploded with the new administration

Much lower US electricity costs gives it a competitive advantage

Wage growth slowing in the US and Euro area; elevated and sticky in the UK

Stagflation-lite: Blue Chip forecasts below-trend growth and elevated inflation

US policy gyrations boosting policy uncertainty worldwide

Expected tariff hikes have boosted inflation expectations

US and Japan ended 2024 on solid ground in contrast to Europe

US economy expected to outperform other major economies in 2025

Only modest evidence of AI-related surge in US productivity growth

Previous Trump tariffs fading. A boost from new tariffs ahead?

Heavy US manufacturing states underperforming while Sun Belt states outperforming

Rising long-term yields a global phenomenon

US financial market concerns shifting from growth to inflation

Economic activity is picking up in the US but remains lackluster abroad

Policy uncertainty has surged since the US national elections.

Recent turnaround in US economic surprises leading to increases in rate-cut expectations

The outlook has brightened in the US, while it has dimmed for other major economies

Headline US PCE inflation elevated by sticky services prices

US and global equity prices have recently diverged

US leading global upturn in economic surprises

Blue Chip forecasters look for further significant monetary easing apart from Japan

Recent rise in global supply chain pressures could augur a pickup in global inflation pressures

Underperforming German economy generating increased policy uncertainty relative to Europe and the US

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Real GDP eased 0.3% SAAR (+2.1% y/y) during the first quarter of 2025 after increasing 2.4% in Q4’24 and 3.1% in Q3’24. A 0.4% increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. It was the first decline since Q1 2022.

Foreign trade subtracted 4.83 percentage points from growth last quarter as imports surged 41.3% (13.4% y/y) ahead of tariffs, which began to come into effect in the first quarter. The rise followed a 1.9% decline in Q4’24. Exports rose 1.8% (3.0% y/y) after easing 0.2% in Q4. Inventories added 2.25 percentage points to growth after subtracting 0.84 percentage point from Q4 growth.

Real final sales to domestic purchasers grew 2.3% (2.9% y/y) in Q1 after rising 3.0% in Q4. Personal consumption expenditures rose 1.8% (3.1% y/y) following a 4.0% gain. Durable goods spending fell 3.4% (+5.3% y/y) after surging 12.4% in Q4. Motor vehicle purchases declined 11.1% (+5.5% y/y) after strengthening 19.7% in Q4. Spending on home furnishings & appliances gained 1.5% (6.1% y/y) following a 5.4% rise. Recreational goods & vehicle outlays rose 2.5% (7.0% y/y) last quarter after a 13.9% Q4 increase.

Nondurable goods outlays rose 2.7% (3.0% y/y) following 3.1% growth in Q4. Apparel spending increased 6.7% (2.5% y/y) following a 5.0% rise. Food & beverage buying gained 2.5% (2.3% y/y) after a 1.8% increase. Gasoline & fuel oil purchases increased 4.6% (3.4% y/y) after falling 2.0% in Q4.

Spending on services increased 2.4% last quarter (2.7% y/y) after a 3.0% gain. Outlays on housing & utilities increased 3.4% (1.8% y/y) after rising 1.1% in Q4. Health care expenditures rose 4.0% (4.8% y/y) following a 4.7% strengthening. Transportation outlays increased 5.3% (4.6% y/y) after a 3.7% rise while recreation spending rose 4.7% (2.8% y/y) following a 4.5% rise. Restaurant & hotel expenditures declined 2.1% (+0.5% y/y) following a 2.8% rise. Financial services expenditures rose 1.9% (2.0% y/y) after a 3.1% Q4 increase.

Business fixed investment increased 9.8% (3.6% y/y) following a 3.0% decline in Q4. Expenditures on structures rose 0.4% (-0.4% y/y) after a 2.9% increase. Expenditures on producers’ durable equipment jumped 22.5% (8.0% y/y) after falling 8.7%.  Outlays on information processing equipment soared 69.3% (18.9% y/y) following a 7.3% decline. Industrial equipment investment fell 1.4% (-0.3% y/y) after easing 0.9%. Intellectual property product spending rose 4.1% (1.8% y/y) following a 0.5% decline. 

Residential structures investment increased 1.3% (-0.1% y/y) in Q1 after a 5.5% Q4 rise.

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Government spending fell 1.5% (+2.4% y/y) after a 3.1% Q4 rise. Federal government expenditures declined 5.1% (+2.9% y/y) after rising 4.0% in Q4. National defense expenditures declined 8.0% (+4.0% y/y) after increasing 4.8% in Q4. State & local government spending rose 0.8% (2.1% y/y) following a 2.5% rise.

The GDP price index rose 3.7% (2.6% y/y) after increasing 2.3% in Q4. It was the largest increase since Q4’22. A 2.4% increase had been expected. The PCE chain price index increased 3.6% (2.5% y/y) following a 2.4% rise. The PCE price index excluding food and energy rose 3.5% (2.8% y/y) after increasing 2.6% in Q4. The business fixed investment price index rose 0.4% (1.8% y/y) after 1.5% rise. The residential price index strengthened 3.9% (3.2% y/y) after a 1.9% rise while the government price index increased 4.7% (2.8% y/y) following a 2.1% rise.

The GDP data can be found in Haver’s **USECON** and **USNA** databases. **USNA** contains virtually all of the Bureau of Economic Analysis detail in the national accounts. The Action Economics consensus estimates can be found in **AS1REPNA**.

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- Decline in GDP is first in three years.
- Foreign trade subtracts substantially ahead of tariffs.
- Domestic final demand growth weakens.
- Price index strengthens with higher core PCE prices.

U.S. GDP Unexpectedly Declines in Q1’25; Prices Strengthen

Michael J. Moran

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High-side readings on the price indexes for personal consumption expenditures in January and February caused some concern about emerging price pressure, especially with some policies of the Trump administration possibly adding to the upward force. However, March brought notable relief, with the headline price index falling slightly (-0.04%). A marked decline in energy prices was helpful (-2.7%), but core prices also were subdued, increasing less than 0.1%.  Year-over-year changes were still above the Fed’s target of 2%, but only barely so for the headline measure (2.3%). The core index backed away from the reading of 3.0% in February, but the latest reading of 2.7% was in line with observations in the past year, and still uncomfortably above target.

Consumers roused from a winter slumber in March, with nominal outlays increasing 0.7%. With inflation restrained, real outlays also posted a gain of 0.7%. Spending on durable gods stood out, with real outlays advancing 3.2%. Real outlays for both nondurable goods and services rose 0.4%, a solid pace. Signs of life were certainly welcome after an average decline of 0.1% in January and February. The March rebound left growth of 1.8% (annual rate) in the first quarter.

The brisk increase in spending in March was supported by a solid gain in personal income (0.5% in both nominal and real terms). Growth in wage income was firm at 0.5%, while proprietors’ income was robust with a gain of 1.8% (not annualized!). The farm sector led the advance in proprietors’ income, but the nonfarm sector also was strong (0.6%).

The personal income and consumption figures are available in Haver’s **USECON** database with detail in the **USNA** database. The Action Economics forecasts are in **AS1REPNA**.

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- Price pressure eases.
- Spending rebounds after two soft months.

Personal Income, Consumption, and Prices in March

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The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking home sales measure based on contract signings, from the National Association of Realtors rose 6.1% to 76.5 (-0.6% y/y) during March after rising a little-revised 2.1% in February. These changes followed a 4.6% January decline.

The rise in March sales occurred as the rate on a 30-year mortgage eased to an average 6.65% from 6.84% in February. This rate was well above a low of 2.68% averaged in December 2020.

Pending home sales were up in most regions of the country. Sales in the Midwest rose 4.9% (1.4% y/y) last month after rising 1.8% in February. Sales in the South increased 9.8% (-0.4% y/y) following a 5.8% February rise. Sales in the West improved 4.8% (-2.0% y/y) after falling 3.0% in February. Sales in the Northeast were off 0.5% (-3.0% y/y) in March after falling 0.9% in February.

The pending home sales index measures sales at the time the contract for the purchase of an existing home is signed, similar to the Census Bureau's new home sales data. In contrast, the National Association of Realtors' existing home sales data are recorded when the sale is closed, which is usually a couple of months after the sales contract has been signed. In developing the pending home sales index, the NAR found that the level of monthly sales contract activity leads the level of closed existing home sales by about two months.

The series dates back to 2001 and are available in Haver's **PREALTOR** database. Weekly mortgage interest rates from the Mortgage Bankers Association can be found in the **WEEKLY** database.

- Sales rise to highest level in four months.
- Strength is evident throughout most of country.

U.S. Pending Home Sales Surge in March

Sandy Batten

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The employment cost index (ECI) for civilian workers, arguably the most accurate measure of labor compensation in the United States, rose 0.9% q/q (3.6% y/y) in Q1, the same quarterly increase as in last year’s Q4, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The quarterly gains have fluctuated between 0.8% and 1.0% for the past six quarters. The Action Economics Forecast Survey had expected a 0.9% q/q increase and a 3.5% y/y gain.

Wages and salaries for civilian workers rose 0.8% q/q (3.5% y/y) in Q1, down from 1.0% q/q in Q4. This tied the Q3 2024 quarterly rise as the smallest increase since Q2 2021. It was also the smallest y/y increase since Q2 2021. Benefits increased by an outsized 1.2% q/q (3.9% y/y) in Q1 versus 0.8% q/q in Q4. This is the largest quarterly gain since Q2 2022. In general, employment cost gains remain above the pace observed prior to the pandemic but are slowing gradually.

Private industry workers’ compensation rose 0.8% q/q (3.4% y/y) in Q1, down from 0.9% q/q (3.6% y/y) in Q4. Wages and salaries for private industry workers increased 0.8% q/q (3.4% y/y) in Q1 versus 0.8% q/q (3.7% y/y) in Q4. The quarterly gain in Q1 tied that in Q3 2024 as the smallest increase since Q4 2020. Benefits for private industry workers jumped 1.2% q/q (3.6% y/y). the largest quarterly gain since Q2 2022. The acceleration in benefits in Q1 was primarily in service-producing industries.

Compensation in private goods-producing industries increased 1.0% q/q (3.2% y/y) in Q1, the largest quarterly gain in five quarters, versus a 0.7% q/q increase in Q4. Compensation in construction jumped 1.3% q/q, its largest quarterly increase since Q2 2022, up from a 0.6% q/q gain in Q4. Manufacturing compensation growth slowed to 0.7% q/q, its slowest quarterly advance since Q4 2020, from 0.8% q/q in Q4. Compensation in private service-producing industries increased 0.8% q/q (3.5% y/y), down slightly from a 0.9% q/q gain in Q4. Compensation in education and health services jumped 1.3% q/q, its largest quarterly gain since Q3 2023. In contrast, compensation in other services edged up 0.1% q/q in Q1, its smallest quarterly advance since before the pandemic.

The employment cost index measures the change in the cost of labor, free from the influence of employment shifts across occupations and industries. It is provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and is available in Haver’s **USECON** database. Consensus estimates from the Action Economics Forecast Survey are in Haver’s **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Compensation grew 0.9 q/q in Q1, the same pace as in Q4.
- Wage growth slowed to 0.8% q/q while benefits surged 1.2% q/q, their largest quarterly increase since Q2 2022.

Employment Cost Growth Steady in Q1 2025

Kathleen Stephansen, CBE

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The ADP National Employment Report indicated that nonfarm private sector payrolls rose 62,000 (1.4% y/y) during April after increasing 147,000 (1.4% y/y) during March, revised from 155,000. A 124,000 April rise in ADP employment had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.

Growth in median annual pay for "job stayers" eased to 4.5% y/y during April, from 4.6% y/y in March and from 4.7% y/y in the prior two months. Manufacturing sector pay grew 4.6% y/y during April, down from 4.8% y/y in March. Construction sector pay was unchanged at 4.7% y/y. Natural resource & mining sector pay grew 4.4% y/y. Financial sector pay rose 5.1% y/y, while education & health services pay rose 4.7% y/y. Leisure & hospitality pay also increased 4.7% y/y. Professional & business service sector pay increased 4.3% y/y as did trade, transportation & utilities pay. Information pay rose 4.1% y/y. Median annual pay for “job changers” rose 6.9% y/y after 6.7% y/y in March.

Small business hiring (less than 50 employees) rose 11,000 (0.6% y/y) after rising 18,000 (0.6% y/y) in March, revised down from 52,000. Employment at medium-sized firms (50-499,000 employees) rose 40,000 (1.1% y/y) after rising 43,000 (1.1% y/y). Large business hiring (500+ employees) rose 12,000 (3.4% y/y) in April, after rising 61,000 (3.6% y/y) in March, revised from 59,000.

Goods-producing employment rose 26,000 (1.3% y/y) in April, after rising 16,000 (1.3% y/y) during March, revised from 24,000. Manufacturing jobs rose 4,000 (-0.2% y/y) after rising 17,000 (-0.3% y/y) in March. The number of construction sector jobs rose 16,000 (3.4% y/y) in April, following a 2,000 (3.6% y/y) March increase, revised from 6,000. Natural resources & mining jobs rose 6,000 (2.8% y/y) in April after falling 3,000 (+1.9% y/y) in March.

The number of service-producing jobs rose 34,000 (1.4% y/y) during April, following a rise of 131,000 (1.4% y/y) in March. Professional & business services employment fell 2,000 (0.6% y/y) after rising 46,000 (0.7% y/y) in the prior month, revised from 57,000. Employment in the financial industry rose 20,000 (2.1% y/y) in April, after rising 38,000 (2.0% y/y) in March. Leisure and hospitality employment increased 27,000 (3.0% y/y), following a 23,000 (2.9% y/y) March increase, revised from 17,000. The number of education & health care jobs fell 23,000 (1.6% y/y) in April, following a 15,000 (1.8% y/y) rise in March, revised from 12,000. Information sector employment fell 8,000 (-0.1% y/y) after a rise of 3,000 (0.2% y/y) in March. The number of jobs in trade, transportation & utilities rose 21,000 (0.4% y/y) in April, after falling 4,000 (+0.4% y/y) in March, revised from a 6,000 fall. Employment in “other” services rose fell 1,000 (+3.2% y/y) following a 10,000 (3.4% y/y) rise in March, revised from 11,000.

By region, employment in the Northeast increased 10,000 (1.9% y/y) in April, following an increase of 95,000 (2.0% y/y) in March, revised from 89,000. Employment in the Midwest rose 42,000 (1.5% y/y) after a gain of 84,000 (1.4% y/y) in March, revised from 81,000. In the South, employment rose 3,000 (1.3% y/y) during April, after rising 10,000 (1.4% y/y) in March, revised from 27,000. In the West, employment rose 9,000 (0.6% y/y) after declining 43,000 (+0.6% y/y), revised from a 41,000 decline in March.

The ADP National Employment Report and Pay Insights data can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. Historical figures date back to January 2010 for private employment. Pay data date back to October 2020. The expectation figure is available in Haver's **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Employment increase is modest in both services & factory sectors.
- Wage growth for “job stayers” moderates.
- Small and medium-sized business employment slows.

Economy in Brief: 2004

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Chicago Fed Nat'l Activity Index Down: Above Trend Growth Still Suggested

Brazil Posts a Current Account Deficit in November, but Should Record a Big Surplus for the Year

Leading Indicators Gain First in Six Months

Leading Indicators Gain First in Six Months

Argentina Recovery Continues

Gasoline Prices, Down in November, Fell Further in December

Consumer Prices Tame, As Expected

Consumer Prices Tame, As Expected