Economy in Brief: June 2016

The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that its total Mortgage Market Volume Index increased 2.9% last week (35.8% y/y) and recouped the prior week's 2.4% decline. Applications to refinance jumped 6.5% (58.7% y/y) to the highest [...]

Despite the unexpected and relatively sharp rise in June's German expectations, the June expectations index is still higher nearly half the time (43%, approximately). Current conditions in Germany are better only 17% of the time, [...]

Regular gasoline prices declined to $2.35 per gallon last week (-16.3% y/y) and reversed the prior week's rise to $2.40, according to the U.S. Department of Energy. Nevertheless, prices remained near the highest level since early [...]

For a third month, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia reported that its Index of Nonmanufacturing Sector Activity at the company level was fairly steady. The index level of 17.6 compared to 18.2 in May and 17.8 in April, each [...]

Japan is getting a boost to growth through its external sector. Its trade surplus is growing. But the boost is not the type we like to see. Japan's exports are falling year-over-year, but since imports are falling by more the trade [...]

The Commodity Research Bureau reported that its Index of Spot Commodity Prices has been moving up. The 1.2% gain during the last four weeks added to earlier increases to lift prices during the last 6 months by 11.1%. Strength in the [...]

Inflation globally is low. In the EMU, the price level is falling. Japan's inflation is weak. In the U.S., the CPI is up only 1.1% although the U.S. targets the PCE deflator which shows a much weaker core trend than the CPI. In [...]

Housing starts fell 0.3% during May to 1.164 million units (SAAR) following a 4.9% April rise to 1.167 million units, revised from 1.172 million. Expectations were for 1.150 million starts in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. [...]