Economy in Brief: 2014

The OECD's leading economic indicator for June posted a reading of 100.5, the same as it's been for the last eight months. The OECD portrays this as indicating ongoing expansion. However, there clearly is no acceleration in the cards. [...]

Inventories at the wholesale level rose 0.3% last month (7.9% y/y) following a 0.3% May increase, revised from 0.5%. Inventories of durable goods gained 0.7% (8.8% y/y). The rise was led by a 3.2% surge (11.4% y/y) in metal [...]

German activity data have been weakening recently. There is speculation that the sanctions on Russia are an important factor. But trade data for June show some rebound in German trade flows. Exports rose 0.9% in June as imports [...]

Nonfarm productivity increased at a 2.5% annual rate last quarter (1.2% y/y) following a 4.5% Q1 decline, revised from -1.7%. Real output growth of 5.2% (3.2% y/y), rebounding from a 2.4% Q1 drop, was accompanied by a 2.7% increase [...]

The Federal Reserve Board reported that consumer credit outstanding increased $17.3 billion (6.7% y/y) during June following an unrevised $19.6 billion May rise. Expectations were for an $18.0 billion increase, according to the Action [...]

Industrial production in Germany in June rose by 0.3%, only partly restoring May's 1.7% drop. German industrial output is falling over three months and six months. The pace of decline is gathering steam over shorter horizons. All [...]

Job market improvement continues. Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell to 289,000 (-13.7% y/y) during the week ended August 2 from 303,000 in the prior week, earlier reported as 302,000. The four-week moving average of [...]

The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that their total Mortgage Market Volume Index gained 1.6% last week (-30.0% y/y), making up most of the prior week's decline. Applications remained two-thirds below the peak in September 2012. [...]