Global| Aug 08 2014U.S. Wholesale Inventory Gain Remains Stable; Sales Moderate
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Inventories at the wholesale level rose 0.3% last month (7.9% y/y) following a 0.3% May increase, revised from 0.5%. Inventories of durable goods gained 0.7% (8.8% y/y). The rise was led by a 3.2% surge (11.4% y/y) in metal [...]
Inventories at the wholesale level rose 0.3% last month (7.9% y/y) following
a 0.3% May increase, revised from 0.5%. Inventories of durable goods gained 0.7%
(8.8% y/y). The rise was led by a 3.2% surge (11.4% y/y) in metal inventories.
Inventories of computer equipment rebounded 1.8% (6.5% y/y) while furniture inventories
increased 1.0% (7.4% y/y). Machinery inventories rose 0.3% (12.5% y/y). In
the nondurable goods sector, inventories fell 0.2% (+6.4% y/y) after a
0.5% May drop. These declines reflected a 5.3% drop (-0.6% y/y) in farm
products after a 4.4% May shortfall. Chemical inventories gained 2.6%
(7.0% y/y) and petroleum inventories rose 1.7% (0.2% y/y).
Wholesale sales edged 0.2% higher (6.5% y/y) during June. Durable goods sales rose 1.4% (6.6% y/y) powered by a 2.1% rise (6.4% y/y) in motor vehicles. Electrical equipment sales rose 0.8% (2.5% y/y) but furniture sales gained just 0.2% (0.4% y/y). Sales of nondurable products fell 0.7% (+6.5% y/y) as farm product sales were off 8.1% (-1.0% y/y). Chemical sales declined 1.4% (+8.8% y/y). Apparel sales also fell 0.2% (+9.2% y/y) but paper product sales rose 2.4% (9.2% y/y). Petroleum sales gained 1.0% (6.6% y/y).
The wholesale sector's inventory-to-sales ratio held m/m at 1.17, rising from 1.16 at year-end. In the durable goods sector, the I/S ratio declined to 1.57 but remained up from its low of 1.49 during all of 2011. In the nondurables sector, the I/S ratio of 0.83 neared the expansion low, held down by a 0.32 ratio in petroleum.
The wholesale trade figures are available in Haver's USECON database.
| Wholesale Sector - NAICS Classification (%) | Jun | May | Apr | Y/Y | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inventories | 0.3 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 7.9 | 4.0 | 5.5 | 9.4 |
| Sales | 0.2 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 6.5 | 4.3 | 4.8 | 12.4 |
| I/S Ratio | 1.17 | 1.17 | 1.18 | 1.16 (June'13) | 1.17 | 1.18 | 1.15 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
