Tom Moeller

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The ADP National Employment Report indicated that nonfarm private sector payrolls declined 301,000 during January (+4.7% y/y) following a 776,000 December increase, revised from 807,000. It was the first monthly decline since December 2020. A 210,000 January rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The three-month average gain fell to 324,000. November payrolls increased 496,000, revised from 505,000.

ADP indicated "The labor market recovery took a step back at the start of 2022 due to the effect of the Omicron variant and its significant, though likely temporary, impact to job growth."

Small-sized payrolls were severely impacted last month, falling 144,000 (+4.5% y/y) after rising 192,000 in December. Large-sized payrolls declined 98,000 (+4.1% y/y) after increasing 378,000 in December. Medium-sized payrolls declined 59,000 last month (+6.3% y/y) following a 206,000 December gain.

Within industry sectors, private services employment led the decline last month with a 274,000 drop (+4.9% y/y) after rising 645,000 in December. Leisure & hospitality jobs weakened 154,000 in January (+16.7% y/y) which reversed most of the 239,000 December increase. The number of trade, transportation & utilities jobs fell 62,000 (+3.0% y/y) and reversed half of December's rise. The number of education & health services jobs fell 15,000 (+3.2% y/y) after rising 81,000 in December. Employment in financial services eased 9,000 (+1.5% y/y) after a 23,000 December increase. The number of information sector jobs fell in January by 8,000 (+1.7% y/y), the first decline in six months. Professional & business services jobs slipped 3,000 (+3.7% y/y) after triple-digit gains in both November and December.

Employment amongst goods-producing firms eased 27,000 (+3.8% y/y) last month following a 131,000 December rise. The number of factory sector jobs fell 21,000 last month (+2.9% y/y) after increasing 69,000 in December. Construction sector payrolls fell 10,000 in January (+4.8% y/y) after sharp increases in each of the prior four months. Employment in the natural resource & mining sector rose 4,000 last month (9.8% y/y) after rising 2,000 in December.

The Automatic Data Processing Research Institute survey covers 411,000 companies and includes about one-fifth of U.S. private payroll employment. The data are processed by Moody's Analytics Inc., then calibrated and aligned with the BLS establishment survey data. The ADP data cover private sector employment only.

The ADP National Employment Report data can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. Historical figures date back to 2001 for private employment and the industry breakdown, and 2005 for the business size breakout. The expectation figure is available in Haver's **AS1REPNA** database.

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* **Omicron-related job loss is widespread.**
* **Leisure & hospitality sector is notably hard hit.**
* **Construction & factory sectors suffer significantly.**

U.S. ADP Nonfarm Private Payrolls Unexpectedly Decline in January

Sandy Batten

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The Mortgage Bankers Association's Loan Applications Index rebounded in the week ended January 28, rising 12.0% w/w (-37.0% y/y) and more than making up for the 7.1% weekly decline in the previous week. The rebound was led by an 18.4% w/w (-50.4% y/y) jump in loans to refinance following four consecutive weekly declines. With mortgage interest rates continuing to rise, borrowers are likely attempting to secure a refinance loan before rates go even higher. Purchase applications increased 4.0% w/w (-6.7% y/y) after having fallen 1.8% w/w in the previous week.

The share of applications for refinancing increased to 57.3% in the week ended January 28 from 55.8% in the previous week. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity edged up to 4.5%, the highest since the week of March 20, 2020, from 4.4% in the prior week.

The effective interest rate on a 30-year mortgage rose for the sixth consecutive week to 3.89% in the week ended January 28, its highest since the week of March 20, 2020, from 3.85% in the previous week. The effective rate on a 15-year mortgage edged up one basis point to 3.11% and the rate on a Jumbo 30-year mortgage rose two basis points to 3.68% in the previous week. The interest rate on a 5-year adjustable-rate mortgage fell 8 basis points to 3.22%.

Applications for fixed-rate loans increased 11.8% w/w (-38.5% y/y), more than reversing a 7.6% w/w decline in the previous week. Applications for adjustable-rate mortgages jumped 14.6% w/w (+29.6% y/y) on top of a 7.2% w/w weekly gain in the previous week. ARM applications are up 53.6% over the past three weeks.

The average size of a mortgage loan roe 0.7% w/w (10.0% y/y) to $365,300 in the week ended January 28 from $362,700 in the previous week. The average size of a loan for purchase rose 1.8% w/w (+10.7% y/y) to a new record $441,100 on top of a 3.6% jump in the previous week. The average size of a refinanced loan gained 0.7% w/w (+1.0% y/y) to $308,700 in the most recent week from $306,700 in the previous week.

This survey covers over 75% of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications and has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks, and thrifts. The base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100. The figures for weekly mortgage applications and interest rates are available in Haver's **SURVEYW** database.

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- Total applications rebounded with largest weekly gain since July 2021.
- Led by 18.4% w/w jump in refinancing, following four consecutive weekly declines.
- 30-year mortgage interest rate rose further to highest since March 2020.

U.S. Mortgage Applications Rebounded

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The value of construction put-in-place rose 0.2% (9.0% y/y) during December following a 0.6% November gain, revised from 0.4%. A 0.7% December rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. During all of 2021, the value of construction rose 8.2%, the strongest increase since 2015.

Private construction increased 0.7% (12.7% y/y) in December after a 0.8% November gain. Residential construction strengthened 1.1% (15.0% y/y) after a 0.7% November rise. Single-family building increased 2.1% (16.3% y/y), about the same as in November. Multi-family building rose 0.4% (9.1% y/y) and reversed November's 0.3% decline. Home improvement expenditures eased 0.1% (+15.2% y/y) in December after declining 0.8% in November.

Nonresidential private construction eased slightly (+9.1% y/y) in December after firm gains in each of the prior five months. Educational construction rose 0.8% (1.7% y/y) following four consecutive months of strong increase. Office building rose 0.7% (4.6% y/y) about the same as in November. Power building improved 0.1% (4.9% y/y) after holding steady in November. Transportation spending was little changed (-1.9% y/y) following a 5.4% surge. To the downside, communication construction fell 0.4% (-0.2% y/y) after a 0.1% rise and heath care construction fell 0.5% (+6.6% y/y) after a 0.2% increase. Manufacturing construction weakened 1.9% (+30.4% y/y) following four months of strong increase.

The value of public construction fell 1.6% (-2.9% y/y) in December after holding steady in November. Health care building declined 4.7% (+7.9% y/y) following a 2.3% increase. Power construction fell 0.7% (+47.7% y/y) following two months of strong increase. Residential construction declined 1.2% (-3.4% y/y) and added to November's 3.2% decline. Spending on educational buildings weakened 1.4% (-8.5% y/y) after rising 0.4% in November. Transportation building fell 3.0% (-6.3% y/y) after weakening 0.5% in November. Spending on highways and streets edged 0.1% higher (0.9% y/y) after falling 0.6% in November.

The construction spending figures, some of which date back to 1946, can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. The expectations reading is in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Private construction increases steadily.
- Residential building strengthens, but nonresidential is little changed.
- Public sector construction weakens.

U.S. Construction Spending Inches Up in December

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The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported that its Composite Index of Manufacturing Sector Activity declined to 57.6 during January from 58.8 in December, revised from 58.7. Earlier figures were slightly revised. A level of 57.9 had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. During the last 15 years, there has been a 42% correlation between the composite index and the quarterly change in real GDP.

The new orders index weakened to 57.9 in January from 61.0 in December. The level was down from a high of 67.4 in December 2020. Twenty-five percent (NSA) of respondents reported higher new orders versus 37.0% a year ago. The production index fell to 57.8 from 59.4 in December. It was the lowest level since June 2020. The supplier delivery series slipped to 64.6 last month from 64.9, indicating quicker product delivery speeds. The inventories index eased to 53.2 from 54.6 in December.

The employment index rose to 54.5 in January from 53.9 in December. It was the highest level since March 2021. An increased 19.2% (NSA) of respondents reported more hiring versus 13.9% in January of last year while 15.1% reported a decline in jobs, up from 13.8% twelve months earlier.

The prices paid index improved to 76.1 in January after falling sharply during the prior two months. The index remained well below the June 2021 high of 92.1. Fifty-nine percent (NSA) of respondents reported higher prices versus 64.3% last year while 6.5% reported price declines after none did last January.

In other ISM series not included in the composite, the order backlog figure fell sharply to 56.4 (NSA) in January and remained well below the high of 70.6 in May of last year. The new export measure was stable at 53.7 but remained down from a November 2020 high of 57.8. The imports index rose to 55.1 in January from 53.8 in December.

The ISM figures are based on responses from over 400 manufacturing purchasing executives from 20 industries, which correspond to their contribution to GDP in 50 states. These data are diffusion indexes where a reading above 50 indicates expansion. The figures from the Institute for Supply Management can be found in Haver's **USECON** database; further detail is found in the **SURVEYS** database. The expectations number is available in Haver's **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Index falls to lowest level since November 2020.
- New orders & production decline sharply.
- Prices paid strengthen.

ISM Manufacturing Index Declines in January

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The Autodata Corporation reported that light vehicle sales during January increased 19.3% (-10.0% y/y) to 15.16 million units (SAAR). Sales were at the highest level since June of last year but remained 18.1% below the April '21 peak of 18.50 million units.

Sales of light trucks rose 21.6% (-7.1% y/y) last month to 12.05 million units, the highest level since last May. Purchases of domestically-made light trucks rose 20.8% in January (-7.4% y/y) to 9.40 million units. Adding to this increase was a 24.4% rise (-6.0% y/y) in sales of imported light trucks to 2.65 million units, though they remained below the April '21 record of 3.30 million unit sales.

Trucks' share of the light vehicle market increased to 79.5% last month but remained below an 80.4% share in October. For all of last year, the share was 77.5%, up from a low of 48.1% during all of 2009.

Passenger car sales rose 11.1% (-19.6% y/y) in January to 3.11 million units, the highest level since last August. Purchases of domestically-produced cars rose 10.1% last month (-21.8% y/y) to 2.08 million units following a 1.1% December increase. Sales of imported autos rose 13.2% in last month (-14.9% y/y) to 1.03 million units, the highest level since August.

Imports' share of the U.S. vehicle market rose in January to 24.3%, though that remained down from a 27.9% September high. Imports' share of the passenger car market rose to 33.1% last month but remained below the September high of 38.1%. Imports' share of the light truck market increased to 22.0%, the highest level since September.

U.S. vehicle sales figures can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. Additional detail by manufacturer is in the **INDUSTRY** database.

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- Light truck sales rebound to eight month high.
- Auto sales rise for third straight month.
- Imports' share improves.

U.S. Light Vehicle Sales Strengthen in January

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**Retail gasoline prices** rose to $3.37 per gallon (39.8% y/y) in the week ended January 31 from $3.32 per gallon in the previous week. Prices have risen from a low of $3.28 at the end of December. Haver Analytics adjusts the gasoline price series for normal seasonal variation. The seasonally adjusted price increased to $3.49 per gallon.

The price of **West Texas Intermediate crude oil** improved to $86.37 per barrel (64.4% y/y) in the week of January 28 from $86.11 in the prior week. It was the highest price since the second week of October, 2014. Yesterday, the price rose to $88.15 per barrel. The average price of **Brent crude oil** rose to $88.60 (59.3% y/y). The price increased to $89.15 per barrel yesterday.

The price of **natural gas** rose to $4.60/mmbtu (69.7% y/y) in the week of January 28 after improving to $4.50 in the previous week. Yesterday, the price surged to $5.56/mmbtu.

In the four weeks ended January 21, growth in **gasoline demand** rose 6.1% y/y, down from 17.1% y/y late in December. Growth in demand for **all petroleum products** has been steady around 11.6% y/y. **Crude oil input to refineries** rose 6.6% y/y, half the growth in late October. **Gasoline inventories** edged up 0.1% y/y, but **crude oil inventories** declined 9.7% y/y.

The **supply of gasoline** inventories in the week ending January 21 rose to 30.2 days, its highest level since February 2021. The supply of crude oil was little changed at 26.7 days.

These data are reported by the Energy Information Administration of the U.S. Department of Energy. The price data can be found in Haver's **WEEKLY** and **DAILY** databases. Greater detail on prices, as well as the demand, production and inventory data are in **USENERGY**.

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- Gasoline prices continue to rise.
- The cost of crude oil increases slightly.
- Natural gas prices strengthen.

U.S. Energy Prices Rise

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The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that on the last business day of December, the total number of job openings rose 1.4% m/m from November to 10.925 million, a little above expectations. This was the third highest total openings on record, exceeded only by July and October 2021, and clearly well above pre-pandemic norms. The job openings rate, calculated as job openings as a percent of the sum of total employment and openings, was unchanged at 6.8%, the second highest on record. New hires fell 5.0% m/m in December to 6.263 million, the lowest level since May 2021, with the hiring rate slipping to 4.2% from 4.4% in November. The number quitting their job fell 3.6% m/m to 4.338 million in December from the record 4.499 million recorded in November. The quit rate, quits as a percent of total employment, edged down to 2.9% in December from a record 3.0% in November. Layoffs and discharges fell 10.7% m/m in December to 1.169 million, the lowest level on record. The JOLTS figures date back to December 2000.

Private-sector job openings rate rose 1.3% m/m in December to fell to 9.882 million with the private-sector job openings rate edging up to 7.2% from 7.1%. Job openings increased in several industries with the largest increases in accommodation and food services (+133,000 or 9.5%), information (+40,000 or 22.6%), and nondurable goods manufacturing (+31,000 or 9.0%). Job openings decreased in finance and insurance (-89,000 or -21.9%) and in wholesale trade (-48,000 or -14.9%) and were little changed in manufacturing. Private-sector hiring fell 5.4% m/m in December, its largest monthly decline since December 2020, to 5.87 million. Hiring fell in each major sector in December.

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Total separations include quits, layoffs and discharges, and other separations. Quits are generally voluntary separations initiated by the employee. Therefore, the quits rate can serve as a measure of workers' willingness or ability to leave jobs. Layoffs and discharges are involuntary separations initiated by the employer. Other separations includes separations due to retirement, death, disability, and transfers to other locations of the same firm. Private-sector quits declined 3.6% m/m in December to 4.129 million. This was the second decline in the past three months. Still, quits remain quite elevated relative to before the pandemic, indicating ongoing labor-market tightness.

This tightness was further supported by an 11.9% m/m decline in private-sector layoffs and discharges to 1.097 million, the lowest on record. Sectoral declines were in construction; trade, transportation and utilities; professional and business services; and leisure and hospitality. Increases were recorded in manufacturing, information, financial activities and education and health services. In total, all private-sector separations fell 5.3% m/m to 5.548 million in December.

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) are available in Haver's **USECON** database.

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- Job openings up slightly; third highest level on record.
- Biggest monthly decline in hiring since December 2020.
- Quits recede after November record surge.
- Layoffs and discharges fall to record low.

December U.S. JOLTS: Job Market Remains Tight

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Consumer spending & income were disappointing last month. Personal consumption expenditures during December fell 0.6% (+13.3% y/y) following a 0.4% November increase, revised from 0.6%. A 0.5% decline had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Adjusted for price inflation, spending fell 1.0% last month (+7.1% y/y) after easing 0.2% in November.

Real spending on durable goods plummeted 4.9% in December (+4.6% y/y) after November's 1.7% decline. The decline was led by a 6.2% fall (+4.4% y/y) in real outlays on furniture & appliances, off for the third month in the last four. Motor vehicle & parts buying weakened 3.3% in real terms (-7.4% y/y), about as it did in November. Real purchases of recreational goods & vehicles weakened 4.9% (+14.7% y/y) after falling 1.2% in November. Real nondurable goods buying fell 2.1% (+7.8% y/y) after a 0.7% November easing. Real clothing outlays weakened 6.2% (+15.3% y/y) after a 2.2% decline. Food & beverage expenditures declined 1.3% (+4.6% y/y) after falling 0.8% in November but spending on gasoline & other energy products rose 0.8% (15.4% y/y), about as they did in November. Real outlays on services ticked 0.1% higher last month (7.5% y/y) after rising 0.2% in November. Real recreation services outlays surged 1.0% and by one-third y/y. The rise followed three consecutive months of strong increase. Real transportation outlays rose 1.5% (31.7% y/y) following a 0.5% rise. Real health care outlays improved a steady 0.6% in December (5.1% y/y) while housing & utilities spending weakened 0.2% (+0.6% y/y) after rising 0.4% in November. Real spending at hotels & restaurants eased 0.4% last month (+30.9% y/y) after a 0.2% November gain.

The PCE chain price index rose 0.4% last month (5.8% y/y) following two months of 0.6% gain. The price index excluding food and energy rose 0.5%, the same as in November. The 4.9% y/y increase was the strongest since September 1983. Durable goods prices rose 0.9% (10.5% y/y) owing to a second straight 1.8% surge (22.8% y/y) in motor vehicle prices. Home furnishings & appliance prices improved 1.0% (8.8% y/y) in December. Recreational goods & vehicle prices eased 0.6% (+1.3% y/y). Nondurable goods prices gained 0.3% (7.7% y/y) after two straight months of 1.2% increase. The services price index rose 0.4% (4.2% y/y) after a 0.5% gain. Gasoline prices eased 0.5% (+47.9% y/y). Energy prices overall eased 0.4% (+29.9% y/y) while food & beverage prices rose 0.3% (5.7% y/y).

Personal income rose 0.3% (7.3% y/y) in December after increasing 0.5% in November, revised from 0.4%. A 0.5% rise had been expected. Wages & salaries rose 0.7% last month (9.2% y/y) after a 0.6% rise while rental income rose 0.8% (7.5% y/y). Earnings on assets improved 0.6% ( 1.3% y/y) as dividend income increased 0.8% (-0.8% y/y) and interest income rose 0.5% (3.0% y/y). Proprietors earnings declined 1.4% (+13.5% y/y). Transfer payments were stable last month (6.5% y/y) following a 0.6% November gain. Disposable personal income increased 0.2% in December (5.6% y/y) after two months of stronger increase. Adjusted for price inflation, disposable income declined 0.2% (-0.2% y/y) for the third straight month.

The personal savings rate rose to 7.9% in December from 7.2% in November. It remained down from a high of 33.8% in April of last year. The level of personal savings rose 10.2% last month but has fallen 40.8% during the last twelve months.

The personal income and consumption figures are available in Haver's **USECON** database with detail in the **USNA** database. The Action Economics figures are in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Outlays on goods decline as services spending slows.
- Core price inflation is steady & strong.
- Wage & salary growth firms.

U.S. Personal Spending Declines as Income Growth Weakens in December

Cost of transporting crude oil has soared to series high

Market-based inflation expectations have not yet reflected recent surge in oil prices

Global equity markets are fearing a major economic disruption from soaring oil prices

Is recent drop in sentiment signaling softer growth ahead?

With the Iran conflict, geopolitical risk has soared to alarming levels

Soaring AI-related investment in US underpinning strong contribution of business spending to overall growth

AI-related outperformance of IP in Advanced Asia ex Japan

Resilient US economy pushing up Blue Chip 2026 outlook

US and China big leaders in adoption of AI models

Robust US demand for advanced technology products

China's export growth rotating away from the US

More pronounced upward revisions in countries more exposed to AI investment

Stable job openings and hiring rates point to cautious hiring

Global freight costs are on the rise while supply chain pressures are contained

Accelerating positive economic surprises in the G10 are boosting the global economy

Considerably more monetary ease expected from US and UK as Japan tightens

Tighter US immigration enforcement adversely impacting labor force

Economic policy uncertainty, while still elevated, is declining

Gradual disinflation and easier monetary policies across advanced economies

Largest October layoffs since 2003, led by technology

Subdued global shipping costs not yet pointing to supply chain problems

PMIs show still-elevated but slowing US inflation

AI boosting US investment in data centers

US productivity growth has been significantly faster than in other major economies

Consumers' short-term US inflation expectations still elevated while longer-term expectations of financial markets are steady

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Tian Yong Woon

In this week’s Letter, we examine the first-round price impacts of the surge in oil prices stemming from the ongoing Middle East conflict in Asia. Despite recent rhetoric and reports suggesting a potentially swift resolution, the conflict continues to unfold, with a ceasefire hanging in the balance, and with some measures of shipping volumes through the Strait of Hormuz still reduced to a trickle. At the same time, crude oil prices have been whipsawing amid shifting market perceptions about the persistence of the current supply shock (chart 1). The initial effects of higher oil prices are already showing up in hard data, particularly in energy- and fuel-related inflation across Indonesia, South Korea, and Vietnam (chart 2). In response, several governments have rolled out sizeable subsidy programmes to cushion rising energy costs, though these measures come with significant fiscal strain.

We also assess recent consumer inflation expectations in South Korea and Taiwan, which show early signs of edging higher (chart 3), although there is as yet no clear evidence of a meaningful unanchoring. To add further nuance, our latest Blue Chip survey suggests that most panellists expect only a limited and temporary pass-through from higher energy prices to core inflation, though a non-trivial minority anticipate a more persistent effect (chart 4). On the policy front, respondents broadly expect central banks to delay easing while avoiding outright tightening, with outcomes likely to diverge across regions (chart 5). In the near term, upcoming policy decisions in India, New Zealand, and South Korea—alongside other key data releases—will provide a useful test of these expectations (chart 6).

**The Middle East conflict**
The Middle East conflict continues to rage, with IMF-tracked shipping volumes through the Strait of Hormuz still reduced to a trickle. Meanwhile, crude oil prices remain volatile, gyrating alongside shifting perceptions over how soon normal oil flows might resume. In reality, there is still little sign of a substantive resolution, and no agreement to fully reopen the strait appears imminent, suggesting that oil flows are likely to remain constrained at low levels in the near term. That said, some investors are closely monitoring developments following reports of discussions around a potential 45-day ceasefire, which could pave the way toward a more lasting resolution. Until then, and absent any meaningful supply relief, crude oil prices—and by extension, energy-related inflation—are likely to face continued upward pressure, particularly for oil-dependent, importing economies.

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**Initial price impacts**
The initial inflation concerns among policymakers and investors stemming from the surge in oil prices are now beginning to show up in the data, as illustrated in chart 2. The latest March readings—capturing the period after the onset of the Middle East conflict—already point to a sharp acceleration in energy-related prices on a year-ago basis. Indonesia’s energy CPI basket has risen by around 9%, while diesel prices in South Korea have jumped 17%. Vietnam’s retail gasoline prices have seen an even more pronounced increase, at roughly 25.6%. Given the scale of these price surges, and their direct impact on everyday essentials—particularly fuel for daily commutes and broader economic activity—governments across Asia have begun rolling out sizeable subsidy programmes. These measures, often implemented at significant fiscal cost, aim to cushion the burden on households and firms. For instance, South Korea’s finance ministry proposed a supplementary budget of around $17.3 billion in late March to support low-income households, youth, and businesses amid higher oil prices, with approval expected by April 10. Meanwhile, Indonesia has allocated approximately $22.4 billion toward energy subsidies and support for selected energy and utilities firms to help keep prices affordable.

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**Consumer inflation expectations**
What policymakers are likely to focus on—beyond the immediate price impacts—is how the recent surge in oil prices feeds into inflation expectations. If left unanchored, these expectations could pose a far greater challenge than the supply-driven price shock itself, including reduced monetary policy effectiveness in reining in inflation and the risk of a self-fulfilling inflation cycle—though it is worth noting that such dynamics are not yet close to materialising. So far, there are some early, albeit inconclusive, signs that near-term consumer inflation expectations are beginning to drift higher in certain economies. As shown in chart 3, one-year-ahead inflation expectations edged up to 2.7% in March, while in Taiwan, consumer sentiment regarding domestic price trends over the next six months has turned notably more pessimistic relative to overall confidence.

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**The latest Blue Chip survey**
Turning to investor perspectives on how higher energy prices may feed into inflation, our special questions in the latest Blue Chip Financial Forecasts (BCFF) survey offer some useful nuance. As shown in chart 4, around two-thirds of panellists expect only a limited and temporary pass-through from higher oil prices to core inflation. That said, a non-trivial minority (31%) anticipate a more moderate and persistent pass-through. This is notable given the focus on core inflation, and underscores how energy prices can generate second-round effects even in typically non-energy components, reflecting the pervasive role of energy in everyday economic activity—from manufacturing to the upkeep of a wide range of goods and services.

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Delving deeper, we also asked panellists about their views on the prospective path of central bank policy should energy-driven inflation prove persistent. As shown in chart 5, responses broadly coalesce around two themes: central banks are likely to delay easing rather than tighten, and policy responses will vary meaningfully across regions. The former is already playing out to some extent in recent central bank decisions across Asia, with several explicitly citing the ongoing Middle East conflict as a reason to remain vigilant on inflation and refrain from easing policy prematurely. As for the latter, there are already signs of divergence in how different central banks are approaching the situation.

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**The week ahead**
Looking to the week ahead, there will be ample opportunities to assess whether investor expectations for central bank policy moves play out across Asia, with several rate decisions due—most notably in India, New Zealand, and South Korea. Also on the docket are China’s March CPI print and a range of Japan-related releases. Policymakers are likely to remain focused on balancing inflation control with supporting growth and maintaining currency stability. For now, and absent offsetting domestic factors, expectations for further near-term easing have been tempered by rising inflation risks. In China, recent CPI readings point to a modest pickup, while producer price deflation has begun to ease after a prolonged period of weak or negative inflation.

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Asia

Economic Letter from Asia: First-Round Effects

Michael J. Moran

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The report on payroll employment for March was impressive when viewed in isolation. Job growth was strong at 178,000, and the advance was broadly based. The construction and manufacturing sectors both posted solid gains, and the service-producing sector registered its firmest performance in more than a year. However, the gain might be viewed as a continuation of an unusual bout of random volatility. The March advance followed a notable drop in February (-133,000, revised down from -92,000), which followed an upside surprise in January (160,000, revised up from 126,000).

To be sure, statistical noise has been a factor in the past three months, but the results also represent an encouraging shift in job growth from that in the second half of last year, when employment rose only marginally in the third quarter and fell in the fourth. The net change in the past three months seems to signal that job growth is not drying up. The net advance so far this year is far from brisk, but it is clearly in the plus column and noticeably better than results in late 2025.

The unemployment rate also might be viewed as favorable, as it dipped 0.1 percentage point to 4.3%, although it was a “soft” decline. That is, employment as measured by the household survey declined 64,000, but the size of the labor force fell by a larger amount (off 396,000). Still, the jobless rate has climbed only modestly higher since the labor market started to ease in 2023, and it has inched lower in the past few months.

Unemployment has been contained despite modest hiring because layoffs also have been light. Initial claims for unemployment benefits have moved sideways in the past few years, indicating no change in the pace of layoffs. This pattern is confirmed by terminations data in the report on job openings and labor turnover (JOLTs) from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

A supply-side shift in the labor market also has helped to contain the unemployment rate. Growth in the size of the labor force has slowed, and with fewer individuals seeking employment, those searching are more easily absorbed. Measures of the size of the labor force can be difficult to assess because there are breaks in the series every year. The Bureau of Labor Statistics adjusts the population controls used in its estimating procedure every January without revising past data to align with the new estimates. Thus, every January involves a discontinuity in the series, which will distort year-over-year changes.

However, Haver Analytics maintains a smoothed series originally developed by BLS to eliminate the breaks in the labor force data. As shown in the chart below, the smoothed series on the size of the labor force had been growing at a pace centered on 1.2% through 2022, but it has slowed irregularly since then (an observation for October is not available because of limited data collection during the government shutdown). The overall labor force is still growing, but the slower pace means fewer individuals looking for work, which most likely results in fewer being counted as unemployed.

The BLS collects data every month on both native-born and foreign-born individuals in the labor force. The breaks in these series are an issue, and Haver does not maintain smoothed series. However, the use of moving averages achieves enough smoothing to provide a sense of underlying changes. The native-born labor force has moved erratically in the past couple of years, but it has continued to advance. The foreign-born labor force, in contrast, seems to have peaked in mid-2025 and has generally declined since then.

The employment and earnings data are collected from surveys taken each month during the week containing the 12th day of the month. The labor market data are contained in Haver's **USECON** database. Detailed figures are in the **EMPL** and **LABOR** databases. The expectations figures are in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- The jump of 178,000 in payroll employment in March easily exceeded the expected gain of 51,000.
- Following a net gain in January and February, the employment setting seems to have brightened slightly.
- A dip in the unemployment rate continued the recent pattern of marginal changes.

Payroll Employment: Another Surprise in March, The Third Consecutive

Robert Brusca

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French manufacturing industrial production was flat in February after a January rebound; output rose by 0.2% following a 0.8% decline in December.

The components of industrial production in February showed 2.6% increase in consumer durables, a 0.4% increase in consumer nondurables, flat output from capital goods, and a 0.7% month to month decline in intermediate output.

Sequentially, French output had been growing at a slow, steady pace of 0.8% at an annual rate over both 12 months and six months, but then slipped to a 6.1% contraction at an annual rate over three months. Consumer durable goods output on this span shows consistent increases, but there are no trends to clear acceleration or deceleration. Consumer nondurables trace an accelerating path of moderate means from -1.8% over 12 months, to -0.4% over six months, and then rising at a 5.5% annual rate over three months. Capital goods output is moving in the opposite direction, growing by 3.4% over 12 months, slowing to a 0.7% annual pace over six months, and then contracting at a 9.5% annual rate over three months. Intermediate goods output is falling at 0.8% pace over 12 months, but then it switches to an expansion rate of 0.8% over six months and 0.6% and over three months. There's nothing remarkable about these patterns, except there's some acceleration, some deceleration, and a lot of mulling about at low growth rates.

As a separate item, French auto production is slipping and decelerating, falling by 7.1% at an annual rate over 12 months, falling at a 7.9% pace over six months, and then plunging at a 19.3% annual rate over three months. On these same horizons, motor vehicle registrations fall by 14.7% over 12 months; the weakness pares back to an 11.2% annual rate decline over six months, and then it steps up to a 22.1% decline at an annual rate over three months. French demand for autos is not in good shape.

In the quarter to date—now two months into the first quarter—manufacturing industrial production is falling at a 0.8% annual rate. That pace is boosted by 9.4% annual rate gain in consumer durables output but restrained by just a 0.2% annual rate increase in consumer nondurable goods. Capital goods output is falling at a 1.9% annual rate, while intermediate goods output is falling at a 1% annual rate. Also in the quarter to date, automobile production is plunging at a 24.3% annual rate, while on the demand side, motor vehicle registrations are falling at a 15% annual rate.

French manufacturing data are somewhat confusing. The chart shows that the industrial production trend has been showing consistent increases over 12 months, but it has recently been pulling back relatively sharply. On the other hand, the manufacturing PMI for France has been consistently negative going back to mid-2022 and only in early 2026 has the manufacturing PMI been posting some values above the 50% mark, indicating that output was starting to actually expand. In March, the PMI reading for manufacturing has slipped back by the thinnest margin below the 50% mark.

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Of course, events in the Middle East make everything more speculative, with the war effectively closing the Strait of Hormuz and no certainty about how or when that is going to be sorted out. In the meantime, the potential threat of ongoing oil price pressures has put both the ECB and the Bank of England in a position to be more wary with policy, and they warned markets about the potential for rate hikes as soon as their next meetings are engaged. That also raises questions about the outlook for growth. But we continue to track and chronicle trends in the data. It's also quite clear that we could have events that will play out that could completely undermine these trends before they get a chance to run to conclusion. It's an important time to be wary and watch all developments—a lot is in play.

France

French IP Waffles

Kathleen Stephansen, CBE

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Initial claims for unemployment insurance declined by 9,000 to 202,000 in the week ending March 28, from 211,000 in the week ending March 21, revised from 210,000. The four-week average declined 3,000 to 207,750 in the week ending March 28, from 210,750 the March 21 week, revised from 210,500. The Forecast Survey looked for 212,000 claims to have been filed.

The total number of unemployment insurance beneficiaries—also known as “continuing claims”—rose by 25,000 to 1.841 million in the week ending March 21, from 1.816 million in the week ending March 14. The four-week moving average declined to 1.839 million in the latest week from 1.846 million in the March 14 week. This is the lowest level for this average since September 28, 2024 when it was 1.834 million. The insured unemployment rate remained at 1.2% in the week of March 21. It has remained at that level since the week of November 29, 2025.

The insured unemployment rate varied greatly across individual states and territories. In the week ending March 14, the highest unemployment rates were in Rhode Island (2.83%), New Jersey (2.73%), Massachusetts (2.66%), Washington (2.39%), Minnesota (2.31%), California (2.17%), and New York (2.01%). The lowest rates were in Florida (0.31%), Louisiana (0.32%), Arkansas (0.36%), Alabama (0.38%), and North Carolina (0.40%). Rates in other notable states include Illinois (1.99%), Connecticut (1.82%), Pennsylvania (1.72%), and Texas (1.07%). These state data are not seasonally adjusted.

Data on weekly unemployment claims are from the Department of Labor itself, not the Bureau of Labor Statistics. They begin in 1967 and are contained in Haver’s **WEEKLY** database and summarized monthly in **USECON**. Data for individual states are in **REGIONW** back to December 1986.

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- New claims declined by 9,000 to 202,000.
- Continuing claims rose by 25,000 to 1.841 million.
- The insured unemployment rate remained at 1.2%.

U.S. Initial Unemployment Claims Edged Down in the Week of March 28

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The S&P manufacturing PMIs for March showed improvements in 44.4% of the 18 reporters. The median reading for the month was at 50.9, indicating that expanding output was the median reading through the period. The median change showed a small step back of 0.1 diffusion points month-to-month.

Sequentially, looking at average yearly activity compared to a year ago, six months compared to 12 months, and three months compared to six months, we see progress in train. For three months compared to six months, the proportion of reporters showing improvement is 72.2%. For these reporters, over six months compared to 12 months, there is a 61.1% improvement proportion, while for 12 months compared to 12 months ago, there is only a 27.8% improvement.

The median reading over three months on average is 50.7, while the median reading over six months is 50.0 and the median reading over 12 months is 49.4. These readings show a very slow but steady improvement in manufacturing over this horizon.

In addition, we calculate the queue percentile standings for each reporter—that is, the level of the current diffusion index compared to all of the observations back to January 2022, expressing the final number as the percentile standing for the current month in that queue. On that basis, the median percentile standing for this group of reporters is 76.5%. It tells us that the median standing is in the top 25 percentile of all the readings since January 2022 to date. That's a reasonably good result. For the euro area, the queue percentile standing is at the 89.8 percentile, while for Germany it's at its 91.8 percentile. For the Monetary Union and for Germany, the current numbers are some of the best we've seen during this period. However, that doesn't mean that they're necessarily stellar readings.

**PMI diffusion vs. PMI rank standings**
German diffusion in manufacturing is 52.2 in March; for the EMU it is 51.6. Germany posts the fourth-highest PMI rank standing and the fifth highest raw standing in March. The highest standing among all reporters is 52.6 from South Korea. This is a period in which no country was posting very strong manufacturing results. In fact, the United States, with a manufacturing PMI rank standing of 79.6, has a diffusion reading in March just a tick below Germany’s whose queue standing at 91.8 seems miles ahead of the U.S.—but it isn’t. Remember that the queue standings are about relative positioning.

Looking at the details, we see that below-median rank readings were logged by Mexico, Russia, India, Brazil, Indonesia, and Turkey. The Asian markets and developing economies seem to have a harder time working up to the standards achieved by other countries.

We also have averages by certain groups of countries. For example, the U.S., the U.K., the Monetary Union, Canada, and Japan—an expanded G10 groping—had an average reading of 51.3 in March, and for that group of countries, the improvements have been steady from 12 months to six months to three months. For the BRIC countries in March, the average standing was 50.4, and for that group there has been a very slight ongoing erosion. For the Asian group, on average, the March reading is 51.2, and there has been a progression to stronger readings from 49.9 over 12 months to 50.5 over six months and to 50.8 over three months.

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On balance, manufacturing was quite uneven in March; however, there's a progression of improvement that is still in place. But with rising oil prices, war in Iran, and lots of knock-on effects to supply trains, it's likely that these readings are going to fall on harder times in the months ahead—unless the Iran war can be wrapped up in very, very, short order. According to the Baltic Dry index, there hasn't been much reduction in global shipping of dry goods. That index excludes oil and other wet goods shipments that clearly have been impeded. However, giving it more time, we may see that the dry index begins to show some difficulties.