Economy in Brief: 2021

Every state is reported to have had positive growth in real GDP in the fourth quarter, but there was a wide range of growth. South Dakota led, with a 9.9 percent rate, while DC trailed all 50 states with a 1.2 percent rate of gain [...]

• Int'l trade deficit sets new record. • Both exports and imports decline. The advance estimate of the U.S. trade deficit in goods widened to $86.72 billion in February from $84.58 billion in January. An $85.1 billion deficit had been [...]

The IFO indexes moved higher in March. The chart plots the indexes while the table presents sector results and aggregate gauges based on diffusion indexes. The graph shows a very strong gain in business expectations and a solid rise [...]

• Total income falls but wage income holds steady. • Spending weakens across categories. • Pricing power moderates. Personal income weakened 7.1% (+4.3% y/y) during February following a little-revised 10.1% January jump. A 7.0% [...]

The GfK German confidence gauge is still quite weak as it posts a headline reading of -6.2 (projected for April). This compares to an historic average reading of 5.2. Place the April reading in its range of values and the current [...]

• Growth continues at a record level. • Component movement is mixed. • Expectations for six months ahead improve. The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City reported that its manufacturing sector business activity index rose to a record [...]

• PUA initial claims decline in March 20 week. • Continuing claims in regular state programs reach lowest since mid-March 2020. • Insured jobless rate declines to lowest since pandemic set in. Initial claims for unemployment insurance [...]

• Activity remains 2.4% below Q4'19 peak. • Corporate earnings drop follows Q3 surge. • Business fixed investment led growth at yearend. Real GDP rose 4.3% (SAAR) during Q4'20 (-2.4% y/y), revised from 4.1%, following a record 33.4% [...]