Introducing

Charles Steindel

Charles Steindel has been editor of Business Economics, the journal of the National Association for Business Economics, since 2016. From 2014 to 2021 he was Resident Scholar at the Anisfield School of Business, Ramapo College of New Jersey. From 2010 to 2014 he was the first Chief Economist of the New Jersey Department of the Treasury, with responsibilities for economic and revenue projections and analysis of state economic policy. He came to the Treasury after a long career at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, where he played a major role in forecasting and policy advice and rose to the rank of Senior Vice-President. He has served in leadership positions in a number of professional organizations. In 2011 he received the William F. Butler Award from the New York Association for Business Economics, is a fellow of NABE and of the Money Marketeers of New York University, and has received several awards for articles published in Business Economics. In 2017 he delivered Ramapo College's Sebastian J. Raciti Memorial Lecture. He is a member of the panel for the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's Survey of Professional Forecasters and of the Committee on Research in Income and Wealth. He has published papers in a range of areas, and is the author of Economic Indicators for Professionals: Putting the Statistics into Perspective. He received his bachelor's degree from Emory University, his Ph.D. from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and is a National Association for Business Economics Certified Business EconomistTM.

Publications by Charles Steindel

• USA| Jun 25 2026

  State GDP and Personal Income in Q1 2026

  State real GDP growth rates in 2026:Q1 ranged from -1.6% in South Dakota to 4.5% in Washington. Declines in farm output held back South Dakota and other states in the Great Plains. Information—presumably connected to AI—boosted Washington. In general, states in the West and Southeast outperformed those in other regions.

  Personal income growth rates ranged from -23.9% in Hawaii to North Dakota’s 22.4%. Those two states reversed their positions from 2025:Q4 as special factors at work reversed (in Hawaii, transfer payments, in North Dakota, net earnings. Unlike GDP, personal income growth was strongest in the Great Plains.

  by:Charles Steindel

  |in:Viewpoints
• USA| Jun 23 2026

  State Labor Markets in May 2026

  State labor markets in May were again somewhat firmer. Two states saw statistically significant increases in payrolls from April: North Carolina reports a 17,400 increase (.3 percent), and West Virginia’s 9,700 increase was a whopping 1.4 percent. No state had a statistically significant decline, and only a few reported insignificant drops.

  Seven states reported statistically significant drops in their unemployment rates in April, though none was larger than .2 percentage point. Alabama reported a .2 percentage point increase. Rates at or above 5.0 percent were in DC, California, Nevada, Washington, Delaware, and Illinois, with DC’s 6.1 percent the highest. Hawaii, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Vermont had unemployment rates under 3.0 percent, while South Dakota’s 2.1 percent was the lowest in the nation.

  Puerto Rico's unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.6 percent and the island’s job count rose 1,500.

  by:Charles Steindel

  |in:Viewpoints
• USA| May 31 2026

  State Coincident Indexes in April 2026

  Movements in the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s state coincident indexes in April were again muted. In the one-month changes, none had increases as high as 1 percent, and only three (West Virginia, Rhode Island, and South Dakota) had gains above .5 percent. On the other side, only four states had declines, all being very modest (Connecticut’s -.16 percent was the largest). Over the three months since January, five states—West Virginia, North Dakota, Idaho, New Hampshire, and Ohio—had increases of 1 percent or higher, with West Virginia’s 1.28 percent on top. Hawaii and Connecticut were the only state with declines; Connecticut’s -.33 percent being the largest. Over the last twelve months, Nevada, Ohio, Idaho, and California clocked increases above 3 percent, with Nevada’s 3.57 percent the highest. Four states were down, with West Virginia’s 2.88 percent loss (obviously conditions there have been turbulent, with steady losses over the year ending in February followed by gains the last two months) being almost three times the size of any other.

  The independently estimated national estimates of growth over the last three and twelve months were, respectively, .53 and 1.79 percent. These may be a touch softer than the state figures would suggest.

  by:Charles Steindel

  |in:Viewpoints
• USA| May 25 2026

  State Labor Markets in April 2026

  State labor markets were a bit firmer in April than in prior months, but insufficient to reverse a long lethargic spell. Six states saw statistically significant increases in payroll from March, though none was especially large (Florida had a 40,500 gain, or .4%, while New Mexico was up .6%, or 5,700). Over the last 12 months, the only ones to see statistically significant changes were DC (down 39,100, or a whopping 5.1%, reflecting the slashing of federal jobs), Oregon, down 1.2%, and Nevada, up 1.9%.

  Three states reported statistically significant drops in their unemployment rates in April, while two reported declines. None was larger than .2 percentage point (Connecticut’ was up that amount while Ohio’s fell than much). Once again, about half of the states had rates statistically different than the nation’s 4.3%, but once more California was the only one of the very largest states to do so. Rates at or above 5.0% were in DC, Delaware, Nevada, California, Washington, and Illinois, with DC’s again 6.3% the highest. Alabama, Hawaii, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Vermont had unemployment rates under 3.0%, while South Dakota’s 2.4% was the lowest in the nation.

  Puerto Rico’s unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.6% and the island’s job count rose 3,600.

  by:Charles Steindel

  |in:Viewpoints
• USA| May 09 2026

  State Coincident Indexes in March 2026

  Movements in the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s state coincident indexes in March were generally muted. In the one-month changes, West Virginia led with a 1.12 percent gain, with North Dakota the only other state with an increase above .5 percent. Five states were down, but Hawaii’s .62 percent drop was the only one larger than .10 percent. Over the three months ending in March, while nine states were down, Hawaii was again the only one with a drop of as much as .5 percent. North Dakota, Indiana, and New Jersey were the only states seeing gains of 1 percent or more. Over the last twelve months, four states were down—West Virginia, which has clearly been quite volatile recently, was off 3.42 percent, but no other fell as much as half that. No state had an increase higher than four percent, and only three were higher than three percent.

  The independently estimated national estimates of growth over the last three and twelve months were, respectively, .50 and 1.76 percent. Both measures appear to be fairly consistent with the state numbers.

  by:Charles Steindel

  |in:Viewpoints
• USA| May 06 2026

  State Labor Markets in March 2026

  State labor markets were, yet again, generally little-changed in March. Three (Texas, Florida, and Tennessee) had statistically significant increases in payrolls. The sum of the changes across the states was 201,700; not very different than the (currently reported) national change of 178,000.

  No state reported a statistically significant change in its unemployment rate. 26 states (including DC) had rates significantly different than the national 4.3%, although three of the four largest states (Florida, Texas, and New York) had rates not significantly different (indeed, the rate in Texas was 4.3%). Rates at or above 5.0% were in DC, Delaware, Nevada, California, Oregon, Illinois, Washington, and Michigan, with DC’s 6.3% the highest. Alabama, Hawaii, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Vermont had unemployment rates under 3.0%, while South Dakota’s 2.3% was the lowest in the nation.

  Puerto Rico’s unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.6% and the island’s job count rose 1,800.

  by:Charles Steindel

  |in:Viewpoints
• USA| Apr 21 2026

  State Coincident Indexes in January 2026

  The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s state coincident indexes in January were generally soft. In the one-month changes, California was the only state to have an increase as high as .50 percent, while 14 recorded declines. Over the three months ending in January, there were four states with increase of more than 1 percent (California was highest, with a 1.20 percent gain), but 13 were down, with 3—Montana, Delaware, and West Virginia—off by more than 1 percent. Over the 12 months from January 2025 to January 2026, five states were down (West Virginia by a very large 4.37 percent), and 7 others had increases of less than one percent. Only 3 states saw increases of 3 percent or more, with Nevada’s 3.76 percent at the top.

  The independently estimated national estimates of growth over the last three and twelve months were, respectively, .61 and 1.78 percent. Both seem to be in line with what the state numbers would have suggested.

  by:Charles Steindel

  |in:Viewpoints
• USA| Apr 09 2026

  State GDP and Personal Income in Q4 2025

  State real GDP growth rates in 2025:Q4 ranged from -8.3% in DC to 3.8% in North Dakota. The plunge in DC was related to the federal shutdown (Maryland also had a marked decline). North Dakota was an outlier on the other side, reflecting a pickup farm output. Most states had sluggish growth rates within a point of the nation’s .5%.

  Personal income growth rates ranged from -4.0% in North Dakota to Hawaii’s astronomical 41.5%. Hawaii’s gain was the result of a large settlement payment related to the 2023 Maui wildfire. North Dakota’s loss stemmed from a sharp drop in earnings (compensation plus proprietors’ income). Most states saw gains trailing the national growth rate of 3.4%; with the exception of California the larger states typically saw higher growth rates.

  by:Charles Steindel

  |in:Viewpoints
• USA| Apr 08 2026

  State Labor Markets in January 2026

  On balance, state labor markets were fairly stable in January. Several states had statistically significant gains in payrolls, led by California’s 93,500 (.5 percent) surge. In other large states Texas was up 40,100 and Illinois 18,000-both increases of .3 percent. DC was the only significant drop; down 5,400 (.7 percent). Most other states had insignificant gains (these amounted to more than 20,000 in Florida and New York). As one might expect, most of the DC job loss was in government.

  The only state to experience a statistically significant change in its unemployment rate was Florida, which saw a .2 percentage point gain. The highest unemployment rates were in DC (6.7%), California (5.4%), Delaware (5.4%), Nevada (5.3%), New Jersey (5.2%), Oregon (5.2%), Michigan (5.0%), and Washington (5.0%). Alabama, Hawaii, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Vermont had unemployment rates below 3.0%, with Hawaii and South Dakota’s the lowest, both at 2.2%.

  Puerto Rico’s unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.7% and the island’s job count edged down 400.

  by:Charles Steindel

  |in:Viewpoints
• USA| Jan 30 2026

  State Coincident Indexes in December 2025

  Yet again, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s state coincident indexes in December were generally soft. In the one-month changes, Kentucky and Missouri were the only states with increases above .50 percent. 16 were down, with West Virginia off by more than one percent. Over the three months ending in December, Missouri was the only state with an increase higher than 1 percent (Idaho was up .99 percent), while eight fell, with Delaware off more than 1 percent and West Virginia down more than two percent. Over the last twelve months, four states were down (Delaware by more than two percent), and seven others saw increases of less than one percent. Seven states saw increases of 3 percent or more, with Alabama’s 3.91 percent at the top.

  The independently estimated national estimates of growth over the last three and twelve months were, respectively, .38 and 1.84 percent. The three-month reading seems to be in line with what the state numbers would have suggested, while the twelve-month one appears to be lower.

  by:Charles Steindel

  |in:Viewpoints
• USA| Jan 27 2026

  State Labor Markets in December 2025

  State labor markets were again soft in December. No state had a statistically significant change in payroll employment; the largest absolute gain was a 19,700 increase in Texas, which was barely .1 percent.

  Six states saw statistically significant increases in their unemployment rates (Delaware, Florida, Illinois, Minnesota, Oklahoma, and Washington)—Delaware’s was up .3 percentage points. The highest unemployment rates were in DC (6.7%), California (5.5%), New Jersey (5.4%), Delaware (5.2%), Nevada (5.2%), Oregon (5.2%), and Michigan (5.0%). Alabama, Hawaii, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Vermont had unemployment rates below 3.0%, with Hawaii and South Dakota’s the lowest, both at 2.2%.

  Puerto Rico’s unemployment rate was again unchanged at 5.7% and the island’s job count rose by 3,600.

  by:Charles Steindel

  |in:Viewpoints
• USA| Jan 23 2026

  State GDP and Personal Income in Q3 2025

  State real GDP growth rates in 2025:3 ranged from 0.4% in North Dakota to 6.5% in Kansas. North Dakota’s performance was a major outlier (Minnesota was the next weakest state, with a 2.7% real growth rate) and appears largely attributable to a major, but localized, contraction in agricultural output. The vast majority of states had growth rates above 3.3% (in Massachusetts). Among larger states, Pennsylvania and North Carolina stood out with 5.6% growth rates (Michigan and Ohio were also above 5%0, while Florida’s rate was 3.5%. Manufacturing and finance were major contributors to growth, and states in the Midwest, as well as New York, benefitted from those.

  Personal income growth rates ranged from 6.3% in Kansas to 0.1% in Louisiana. The weakness in Louisiana was due to an aberrant sharp contraction in transfer payments following very strong growth in the second quarter. On the flip side, gains in transfers played an outside role in New York’s 4.2% . Earnings growth was unusually high in Iowa and South Dakota; unusually low in Oklahoma.

  by:Charles Steindel

  |in:Viewpoints