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Haver Analytics

Introducing

Charles Steindel

Charles Steindel has been editor of Business Economics, the journal of the National Association for Business Economics, since 2016. From 2014 to 2021 he was Resident Scholar at the Anisfield School of Business, Ramapo College of New Jersey. From 2010 to 2014 he was the first Chief Economist of the New Jersey Department of the Treasury, with responsibilities for economic and revenue projections and analysis of state economic policy. He came to the Treasury after a long career at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, where he played a major role in forecasting and policy advice and rose to the rank of Senior Vice-President. He has served in leadership positions in a number of professional organizations. In 2011 he received the William F. Butler Award from the New York Association for Business Economics, is a fellow of NABE and of the Money Marketeers of New York University, and has received several awards for articles published in Business Economics. In 2017 he delivered Ramapo College's Sebastian J. Raciti Memorial Lecture. He is a member of the panel for the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's Survey of Professional Forecasters and of the Committee on Research in Income and Wealth. He has published papers in a range of areas, and is the author of Economic Indicators for Professionals: Putting the Statistics into Perspective. He received his bachelor's degree from Emory University, his Ph.D. from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and is a National Association for Business Economics Certified Business EconomistTM.

Publications by Charles Steindel

  • The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s state coincident indexes in April were mixed. Montana’s index rose a robust 1.2 percent from March, and three other states (Arizona, Maine, and Vermont) had gains above.5 percent, but six states, primarily from the middle parts of the nation, saw declines, with Ohio down .3 percent. Over the three months since January, 11 states, all across the nation, had increases of more than 1 percent, with Arizona up 1.8 percent. In contrast, 17 states had gains under .5 percent, with 4 of those experiencing declines. Over the last 12 months, Massachusetts was once again on top, but its increase of 3.6 percent---just edging out Arizona--was somewhat unimpressive in magnitude. There were four other states with increases higher than 3 percent. On the down side, five states had declines, with West Virginia down 2.4 percent (Montana was off 1.4 percent, despite its strong April), and 12 others had increases of less than 1 percent.

    The independently estimated national figures of growth over the last 3 (.7 percent) and 12 (2.8 percent) months appear to be roughly in line with the state numbers.

  • State labor markets were mixed to moderate in April. Six states had statistically significant gains in payrolls , with the most impressive gains Missouri’s .6 percent increase and Florida’s 45,300 (.5 percent). The other states, and DC, had changes deemed to be insignifcant, including New Jersey’s drop of more than 10,000 (.2 percent).

    Five states had statistically significant declines in their unemployment rates in April, and two had increases. None were larger than .2 percentage point. The highest unemployment rates were in California (5.3%), DC (5.2%) and Nevada (5.1%). No other state had rates as much as a point higher than the national 3.9%. Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Mississippi, Nebraska, New Hampshire, North Dakota, South Dakota, Utah, Vermont, Virginia, Wisconsin, and Wyoming had rates of 2.9% or lower, with both Dakotas at 2.0%.

    Puerto Rico’s unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.8 percent, while the island’s job count moved up by 1,200.

  • The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s state coincident indexes in March showed some moderate variance. Four states were down slightly from February. The largest increase was Arizona’s .8 percent; three other states (Iowa, Delaware, and Vermont) had gains of at least .5 percent. Over the three months since December, Massachusetts was up 1.9 percent, while 8 other states (scattered across the nation) rose more than 1 percent. Over the last 12 months, Massachusetts again led, with an increase of 4.9 percent, while New York’s 3.6 percent was a fairly distant second. 5 states were down over the period, with Montana’s slump continuing, with a loss of 3 percent.

    The independently estimated national figures of growth over the last 3 months (.75 percent) may be a touch higher than the state estimates would have suggested, but the 12-month figure (2.9) percent) looks to be roughly in line with the state numbers.

  • State labor markets were little-changed in March, but on the whole the report looked better than February’s. Only five states had statistically significant gains in payrolls (Arkansas, Georgia, Kansas, Kentucky, and Virginia), with two having .5 percent increases (Arkansas and Virginia). The other states, and DC, had insignificant changes, though numbers had point increases comparable to those that were deemed significant. For instance, California had an increase of about 30,000, though that was less than .2 percent, and New Jersey was up around .3 percent.

    Six states had statistically significant declines in their unemployment rates in January, while one had a significant increase. The only move larger than .1 percentage point was a decline of .3 percentage point in Arizona. The highest unemployment rates were in California (5.3%), DC (5.2%) and Nevada (5.1%). States with unemployment rates of 4.8% (one point above the national rate)were Illinois, New Jersey, and Washington. Maryland, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Hampshire, North Dakota, South Dakota, Utah, Vermont, and Wyoming had rates of 2.8% or lower, with North Dakota at 2.0%.

    Puerto Rico’s unemployment rate moved up to 5.8 percent, while the island’s job count moved up by 2,200.

  • State real GDP growth rates in 2023:4 ranged from Nevada’s 6.7% to Nebraska’s 0.2%. Growth tended to be weaker in the center of the nation, with agriculture being a major drag.

    The distribution of personal income growth was comparable to real GDP with Nevada again on top with a 6.7% growth rate, while Iowa and North Dakota tied for last with each having a growth rate of 0.8%. Over the last few years, the extension and withdrawal of federal transfers connected to the pandemic often grossly distorted movements in state personal income, and the ranking of states. This has become less evident in recent quarters, though the range of annual growth rates for transfers in 2023:4 did run from 8,1% in Mississippi to -5.0% in Arizona. The large drop in Arizona certainly had a visible effect on its overall income growth; Mississippi’s large gain was less meaningful, since other income components there also grew substantially.

  • The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s state coincident indexes in January generally showed moderate, but generally unspectacular, increases. 9 states show declines from December, but none especially large. Massachusetts had a robust 1.1 percent increase. New York was the only other state with a gain as large as .5 percent. Over the 3 months ending in January, Montana was the only one to show a decline, while Massachusetts was up 2.4 percent---a fairly low reading to the leader—while Arizona and Nevada were the only other states with increase of 1 percent or more. Over the last 12 months Massachusetts was also on top, and, again, its 4.6 percent increase was unimpressive for number one. Montana was down a sharp 3 percent, and Maine and West Virginia were also down.

    The independently estimated national figures of growth over the last 3 months (.6 percent) a bit lower than the state estimates would have suggested, but the 12-month figure (2.6) percent) looks to be roughly in line with the state numbers.

    The state coincident index measures are primarily based on state payroll employment data, and calibrated to state real GDP estimates. This report is a bit of an odd duck—it’s for January, even though the February payroll numbers have been released—and Q4 state GDP numbers will soon be released. On April 3 the February estimates will be available.

  • State labor markets were at best mixed in February. Only four states had Eight states had statistically significant gains in payrolls (Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, and Texas—Iowa was the only one with an increase larger than ½ of one percent). The other states, and DC, had no signicant change, with numbers showing point declines.

    Three states had statistically significant increases in their unemployment rates in January, while three had significant declines. The largest move was an increase of .3 percentage point in Rhode Island. The highest unemployment rates were in California (5.3%), Nevada (5.2%) and DC (5.1%). No other states had unemployment rates of 4.9% (one point above the national rate) or higher. Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Hampshire, North Dakota, South Dakota, Utah, Vermont, and Wyoming had rates of 2.9% or lower, with North Dakota at 2.0%.

    Puerto Rico’s unemployment rate remained at 5.7 percent, with the island’s job count little-changed.

  • State labor markets were generally mixed to improved in January. Eight states had statistically significant gains in payrolls. New York led in absolute numbers (59,300) and percentage (.6) terms, while three of its neighbors (Massachusetts, New Jersey, and Vermont). Only a small handful report point declines, none statistically significant.

    4 states had statistically significant increases in their unemployment rates in January, while 2 had significant declines. None of these movements were larger than .2 percentage point. The highest unemployment rates were in Nevada (5.3%), California (5.2%) and DC (5.0%). Illinois and New Jersey were also more than a point higher than the nation’s 3.7 percent. Alabama, Maryland, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Hampshire, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Vermont had rates of 2.7 percent or lower, with North Dakota at 1.9 percent.

    Puerto Rico’s unemployment rate remained at 5.7 percent, while the island’s payrolls rose 6,000—likely a statistically significant increase.

  • The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s state coincident indexes in December show continuing and slightly worsening softness. 30 states show declines from November, with Montana down 1.1 percent and Massachusetts off nearly .8 percent. Of the 20 states with increases, Minnesota led with a .7 percent rise. Over the 3 months ending in November, 24 states had no change (Hawai’i) or declines, with Montana down 2.5 percent, and West Virginia and Massachusetts both off by more than 1 percent. The indexes for both Minnesota and Nevada rose 1 percent over this period. Over the last 12 months Maryland was yet again on top, but its 5.6 percent increase was notably smaller than the last few months, and the same can be said of number 2 Vermont’s 5 percent gain. Montana was down 1.6 percent over the last year, and Arkansas and New Jersey both experienced declines.

    The independently estimated national figures of growth over the last 3 months (.7 percent) seems higher than the state estimates would have suggested, but the 12-month figure (3.0 percent) looks to be roughly in line with the state numbers.

  • State labor markets were soft in December. No state reported a statistically significant or loss in payrolls. Most had modest point increases.

    15 states had statistically significant increases in their unemployment rates in December, with the rates in Massachusetts and Rhode Island both up .3 percentage point. Minnesota’s rate fell by .2 percentage point. Nevada’s rate remained 5.4 percent, while California and DC were both at 5.1 percent. Illinois and New Jersey were also more than a point higher than the nation’s 3.7 percent. Alabama, Maryland, Nebraska, New Hampshire, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Vermont had rates under 2.7 percent, with Maryland and North Dakota at 1.9 percent.

    Puerto Rico’s unemployment rate remained at 5.7 percent, and the island’s payrolls edged down 700.

  • The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s state coincident indexes in November were comparable to the October showing, tending toward the weak side. 30 states show declines from October, with Montana down 1 percent and West Virginia off nearly .9 percent. Of the 20 states with increases, Minnesota led with a .5 percent rise. Over the 3 months ending in November, 22 states had declines, with West Virginia off by 2.5 percent, and Montana and Michigan down by more than 1 ½ percent. Nevada rose 1.1 percent and Texas was up 1.0 percent—fairly soft performances for states at the top. Over the last 12 months Maryland again led, with a 6.6 percent increase, and Vermont’s index rose 6.1 percent. The measures for Arkansas and New Jersey fell over the last year.

    The independently estimated national figures of growth over the last 3 months (.7 percent) and 12 months (3.0 percent) both look to be roughly in line with what the state figures suggest.

  • State real GDP growth rates in 2023:3 ranged from Kansas’s 9.7% to Arkansas’s 0.7% (the latter in Q3 being Wasn’t rather than Ar Kansas). As Kansas would suggest, states with relatively high concentrations in agriculture tended to rank high, but there was also strong growth in the Rocky Mountains as well as Florida.

    The distribution of personal income growth was comparable to real GDP; Arkansas was also at the bottom, while Kansas was 3rd (Texas was number 1, which is something often heard there for many other things). As is often the case, aggregate personal income growth can be heavily affected by seemingly random movements in transfer payments. In general, transfer payments fell in Q3. In New York, though, an anomalous 4.4% rate of growth in transfers pushed the state’s aggregate income growth about the national pace, despite a rather soft gain in net earnings.