Introducing

Charles Steindel

Charles Steindel has been editor of Business Economics, the journal of the National Association for Business Economics, since 2016. From 2014 to 2021 he was Resident Scholar at the Anisfield School of Business, Ramapo College of New Jersey. From 2010 to 2014 he was the first Chief Economist of the New Jersey Department of the Treasury, with responsibilities for economic and revenue projections and analysis of state economic policy. He came to the Treasury after a long career at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, where he played a major role in forecasting and policy advice and rose to the rank of Senior Vice-President. He has served in leadership positions in a number of professional organizations. In 2011 he received the William F. Butler Award from the New York Association for Business Economics, is a fellow of NABE and of the Money Marketeers of New York University, and has received several awards for articles published in Business Economics. In 2017 he delivered Ramapo College's Sebastian J. Raciti Memorial Lecture. He is a member of the panel for the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's Survey of Professional Forecasters and of the Committee on Research in Income and Wealth. He has published papers in a range of areas, and is the author of Economic Indicators for Professionals: Putting the Statistics into Perspective. He received his bachelor's degree from Emory University, his Ph.D. from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and is a National Association for Business Economics Certified Business EconomistTM.

Publications by Charles Steindel

• USA| Jul 24 2024

  State Coincident Indexes in June 2024

  The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s state coincident indexes in June were mixed. Connecticut saw a robust increase of 1.1 percent from May, and Maine rose .7 percent. However, 14 states registered declines, with Massachusetts off nearly .5 percent (obviously some diversity in the performance of New England states!). Over the three months since March, 9 states had increases of more than 1 percent, with Montana up 2.1 percent, but 9 had no change or declines over that period, led by Kansas’s .65 percent drop. The diversity in New England, now localized on the north shore of Long Island Sound, was also evident at this frequency, with Connecticut up 1.9 percent and Rhode Island down .2 percent. Over the last 12 months, Arizona saw an increase of 4.3 percent, with 7 other states up more than 3 percent. However, a full dozen states had growth under 1 percent, and 5 of those saw declines, led by Rhode Island’s 1.2 percent drop.

  The independently estimated national figures of growth over the last 3 (.6 percent) and 12 (2.7 percent) months appear to be roughly in line with the state numbers.

  by:Charles Steindel

  |in:Viewpoints
• USA| Jul 19 2024

  State Labor Markets in June 2024

  State labor markets were yet again mixed to moderate in June, though the number of states with unemployment rates under 3.0% diminished. Eight states had statistically significant gains in payrolls, all in the range of .4 to .6 percent. North Carolina’s increase of 23,100 (.5 percent) was the largest, though California’s statistically insignificant rise of 22,500 was nearly as big.

  Eight states had statistically significant increases in their unemployment rates in June and one showed a decline. The increases were no more than .2 percentage point, but Connecticut’s rate dropped .4 percentage points to 3.9%. The highest unemployment rates were in DC (5.4%), California (5.2%), Nevada (5.2%), and Illinois (5.0%). No other state had rates as much as a point higher than the national 4.1%. Alabama, Hawaii, Iowa, Maine, Maryland, Minnesota, Mississippi, Nebraska, New Hampshire, North Dakota, South Dakota, Tennessee, Vermont, Virginia, Wisconsin, and Wyoming had rates of 3.0% or lower, with both South Dakota at 2.0%.

  Puerto Rico’s unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.8%, while the island’s job count fell by 900.

  by:Charles Steindel

  |in:Viewpoints
• USA| Jun 28 2024

  State GDP and Personal Income in Q1 2024

  State real GDP growth rates in 2024:1 ranged from Idaho’s 5.0% to South Dakota’s -4.2%. Growth tended to be high in the mountain West and the Southeast. Many highly agricultural states in the Plains saw declines, but Illinois, Ohio, Oregon, and Louisiana also saw drops. Pennsylvania is on the verge of becoming the sixth state with current-dollar GDP exceeding one trillion dollars. The five currently above that threshold are California, Texas, New York, Florida, and Illinois; Pennsylvania’s 2024:1 figure was $998 billion, at an annual rate. No other state exceeds $900 billion.

  The distribution of personal income growth was comparable to real GDP. South Carolina first with a 9.5% growth rate, while North Dakota’s .6 % was the lowest. It appears that weakness in farm income held down net earnings in the agricultural regions. As always, the distribution of the growth of transfer payments was erratic and influenced the rankings of total personal income growth, but in this instance, generally slower transfer growth in the Plains merely tended to accentuate the effect of weakness in net earnings. with Nevada again on top with a 6.7% growth rate, while Iowa and North Dakota tied for last with each having a growth rate of 0.8%. Over the last few years, the extension and withdrawal of federal transfers connected to the pandemic often grossly distorted movements in state personal income, and the ranking of states. This has become less evident in recent quarters, though the range of annual growth rates for transfers in 2023:4 did run from 8,1% in Mississippi to -5.0% in Arizona. The large drop in Arizona certainly had a visible effect on its overall income growth; Mississippi’s large gain was less meaningful, since other income components there also grew substantially.

  by:Charles Steindel

  |in:Viewpoints
• USA| Jun 28 2024

  State Coincident Indexes in May 2024

  The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s state coincident indexes in May continued to be mixed, but a touch improved from the initial April results. Idaho and Arizona led with fairly moderate increases of .6 percent from April, while Arizona, West Virginia, and New Hampshire also had gains above.5 percent, but a full ten states, scattered across the nation, saw declines, with Rhode Island down .4 percent. Over the three months since February, 11 states had increases of more than 1 percent, with Montana up 2.4 percent. 15 states had gains under .5 percent, with 3 of those experiencing declines. Over the last 12 months, Arizona was on top with a 4.1 percent increase. There were six other states with increases higher than 3 percent. On the down side, four states (none large) had declines, with West Virginia off 1.8 percent (Montana was off 1.4 percent, despite its strong April), and 9 others had increases of less than 1 percent.

  The independently estimated national figures of growth over the last 3 (.7 percent) and 12 (2.8 percent) months appear to be roughly in line with the state numbers.

  by:Charles Steindel

  |in:Viewpoints
• USA| Jun 25 2024

  State Labor Markets in May 2024

  State labor markets were again mixed to moderate in May. Seven states (counting DC here) had statistically significant gains in payrolls , with the most impressive gain Idaho’s .9 percent increase, while both California and Texas had increases over 40,000 The other states, had changes deemed to be insignificant, including New York’s increase of more than 20,000.

  Four states had statistically significant declines in their unemployment rates in April, and three had increases. None were larger than .2 percentage point. The highest unemployment rates were in DC (5.3%), California (5.2%), DC (5.2%) and Nevada (5.1%). No other state had rates as much as a point higher than the national 4.0%. Alabama, Hawaii, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Mississippi, Nebraska, New Hampshire, North Dakota, South Dakota, Tennessee, Utah, Vermont, Virginia, Wisconsin, and Wyoming had rates of 3.0% or lower, with both Dakotas at 2.0%.

  Puerto Rico’s unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.8%, while the island’s job count edged up by 700.

  by:Charles Steindel

  |in:Viewpoints
• USA| May 22 2024

  State Coincident Indexes in April 2024

  The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s state coincident indexes in April were mixed. Montana’s index rose a robust 1.2 percent from March, and three other states (Arizona, Maine, and Vermont) had gains above.5 percent, but six states, primarily from the middle parts of the nation, saw declines, with Ohio down .3 percent. Over the three months since January, 11 states, all across the nation, had increases of more than 1 percent, with Arizona up 1.8 percent. In contrast, 17 states had gains under .5 percent, with 4 of those experiencing declines. Over the last 12 months, Massachusetts was once again on top, but its increase of 3.6 percent---just edging out Arizona--was somewhat unimpressive in magnitude. There were four other states with increases higher than 3 percent. On the down side, five states had declines, with West Virginia down 2.4 percent (Montana was off 1.4 percent, despite its strong April), and 12 others had increases of less than 1 percent.

  The independently estimated national figures of growth over the last 3 (.7 percent) and 12 (2.8 percent) months appear to be roughly in line with the state numbers.

  by:Charles Steindel

  |in:Viewpoints
• USA| May 17 2024

  State Labor Markets in April 2024

  State labor markets were mixed to moderate in April. Six states had statistically significant gains in payrolls , with the most impressive gains Missouri’s .6 percent increase and Florida’s 45,300 (.5 percent). The other states, and DC, had changes deemed to be insignifcant, including New Jersey’s drop of more than 10,000 (.2 percent).

  Five states had statistically significant declines in their unemployment rates in April, and two had increases. None were larger than .2 percentage point. The highest unemployment rates were in California (5.3%), DC (5.2%) and Nevada (5.1%). No other state had rates as much as a point higher than the national 3.9%. Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Mississippi, Nebraska, New Hampshire, North Dakota, South Dakota, Utah, Vermont, Virginia, Wisconsin, and Wyoming had rates of 2.9% or lower, with both Dakotas at 2.0%.

  Puerto Rico’s unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.8 percent, while the island’s job count moved up by 1,200.

  by:Charles Steindel

  |in:Viewpoints
• USA| Apr 24 2024

  State Coincident Indexes in March 2024

  The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s state coincident indexes in March showed some moderate variance. Four states were down slightly from February. The largest increase was Arizona’s .8 percent; three other states (Iowa, Delaware, and Vermont) had gains of at least .5 percent. Over the three months since December, Massachusetts was up 1.9 percent, while 8 other states (scattered across the nation) rose more than 1 percent. Over the last 12 months, Massachusetts again led, with an increase of 4.9 percent, while New York’s 3.6 percent was a fairly distant second. 5 states were down over the period, with Montana’s slump continuing, with a loss of 3 percent.

  The independently estimated national figures of growth over the last 3 months (.75 percent) may be a touch higher than the state estimates would have suggested, but the 12-month figure (2.9) percent) looks to be roughly in line with the state numbers.

  by:Charles Steindel

  |in:Viewpoints
• USA| Apr 19 2024

  State Labor Markets in March 2024

  State labor markets were little-changed in March, but on the whole the report looked better than February’s. Only five states had statistically significant gains in payrolls (Arkansas, Georgia, Kansas, Kentucky, and Virginia), with two having .5 percent increases (Arkansas and Virginia). The other states, and DC, had insignificant changes, though numbers had point increases comparable to those that were deemed significant. For instance, California had an increase of about 30,000, though that was less than .2 percent, and New Jersey was up around .3 percent.

  Six states had statistically significant declines in their unemployment rates in January, while one had a significant increase. The only move larger than .1 percentage point was a decline of .3 percentage point in Arizona. The highest unemployment rates were in California (5.3%), DC (5.2%) and Nevada (5.1%). States with unemployment rates of 4.8% (one point above the national rate)were Illinois, New Jersey, and Washington. Maryland, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Hampshire, North Dakota, South Dakota, Utah, Vermont, and Wyoming had rates of 2.8% or lower, with North Dakota at 2.0%.

  Puerto Rico’s unemployment rate moved up to 5.8 percent, while the island’s job count moved up by 2,200.

  by:Charles Steindel

  |in:Viewpoints
• USA| Mar 29 2024

  State GDP and Personal Income in Q4 2023

  State real GDP growth rates in 2023:4 ranged from Nevada’s 6.7% to Nebraska’s 0.2%. Growth tended to be weaker in the center of the nation, with agriculture being a major drag.

  The distribution of personal income growth was comparable to real GDP with Nevada again on top with a 6.7% growth rate, while Iowa and North Dakota tied for last with each having a growth rate of 0.8%. Over the last few years, the extension and withdrawal of federal transfers connected to the pandemic often grossly distorted movements in state personal income, and the ranking of states. This has become less evident in recent quarters, though the range of annual growth rates for transfers in 2023:4 did run from 8,1% in Mississippi to -5.0% in Arizona. The large drop in Arizona certainly had a visible effect on its overall income growth; Mississippi’s large gain was less meaningful, since other income components there also grew substantially.

  by:Charles Steindel

  |in:Viewpoints
• USA| Mar 27 2024

  State Coincident Indexes in January 2024

  The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s state coincident indexes in January generally showed moderate, but generally unspectacular, increases. 9 states show declines from December, but none especially large. Massachusetts had a robust 1.1 percent increase. New York was the only other state with a gain as large as .5 percent. Over the 3 months ending in January, Montana was the only one to show a decline, while Massachusetts was up 2.4 percent---a fairly low reading to the leader—while Arizona and Nevada were the only other states with increase of 1 percent or more. Over the last 12 months Massachusetts was also on top, and, again, its 4.6 percent increase was unimpressive for number one. Montana was down a sharp 3 percent, and Maine and West Virginia were also down.

  The independently estimated national figures of growth over the last 3 months (.6 percent) a bit lower than the state estimates would have suggested, but the 12-month figure (2.6) percent) looks to be roughly in line with the state numbers.

  The state coincident index measures are primarily based on state payroll employment data, and calibrated to state real GDP estimates. This report is a bit of an odd duck—it’s for January, even though the February payroll numbers have been released—and Q4 state GDP numbers will soon be released. On April 3 the February estimates will be available.

  by:Charles Steindel

  |in:Viewpoints
• USA| Mar 22 2024

  State Labor Markets in February 2024

  State labor markets were at best mixed in February. Only four states had Eight states had statistically significant gains in payrolls (Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, and Texas—Iowa was the only one with an increase larger than ½ of one percent). The other states, and DC, had no signicant change, with numbers showing point declines.

  Three states had statistically significant increases in their unemployment rates in January, while three had significant declines. The largest move was an increase of .3 percentage point in Rhode Island. The highest unemployment rates were in California (5.3%), Nevada (5.2%) and DC (5.1%). No other states had unemployment rates of 4.9% (one point above the national rate) or higher. Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Hampshire, North Dakota, South Dakota, Utah, Vermont, and Wyoming had rates of 2.9% or lower, with North Dakota at 2.0%.

  Puerto Rico’s unemployment rate remained at 5.7 percent, with the island’s job count little-changed.

  by:Charles Steindel

  |in:Viewpoints