Introducing

Charles Steindel

Charles Steindel has been editor of Business Economics, the journal of the National Association for Business Economics, since 2016. From 2014 to 2021 he was Resident Scholar at the Anisfield School of Business, Ramapo College of New Jersey. From 2010 to 2014 he was the first Chief Economist of the New Jersey Department of the Treasury, with responsibilities for economic and revenue projections and analysis of state economic policy. He came to the Treasury after a long career at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, where he played a major role in forecasting and policy advice and rose to the rank of Senior Vice-President. He has served in leadership positions in a number of professional organizations. In 2011 he received the William F. Butler Award from the New York Association for Business Economics, is a fellow of NABE and of the Money Marketeers of New York University, and has received several awards for articles published in Business Economics. In 2017 he delivered Ramapo College's Sebastian J. Raciti Memorial Lecture. He is a member of the panel for the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's Survey of Professional Forecasters and of the Committee on Research in Income and Wealth. He has published papers in a range of areas, and is the author of Economic Indicators for Professionals: Putting the Statistics into Perspective. He received his bachelor's degree from Emory University, his Ph.D. from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and is a National Association for Business Economics Certified Business EconomistTM.

Publications by Charles Steindel

• USA| Nov 19 2024

  State Labor Markets in October 2024

  State labor markets were little-changed in October. The Boeing strike, and Hurricane Milton, triggered statistically significant declines in payrolls in Washington and Florida. There were no other statistically significant changes, not even in North Carolina (which did have a insignificant drop). Nonetheless, the sum of payroll changes across the states was -76,400, a clear amount lower than the independent national change of 12,000.

  Three states had statistically significant declines in their unemployment rates in October, and one showed an increase. None of the changes were larger than .2 percentage point. The highest unemployment rates were in DC (5.7%), Nevada (5.7%), California (5.4%), and Illinois (5.3%). No other state had rates as much as a point higher than the national 4.1%. Alabama, Hawaii, Maine, Mississippi, Nebraska, New Hampshire, North Dakota, South Dakota, Vermont, Virginia, and Wisconsin had rates of 3.0% or lower, with South Dakota at 1.9%.

  Puerto Rico’s unemployment rate dropped to 5.4%--lower than both DC and Nevada, and matching California--while the island’s job count grew by 2,300.

  by:Charles Steindel

  |in:Viewpoints
• USA| Oct 26 2024

  State Coincident Indexes in September 2024

  The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s state coincident indexes in September remained soft. Connecticut was, yet again, on top, with a fairly modest .57 percent increase. New Hampshire was the only other state up more than .5 percent. 11 states saw declines, with Massachusetts, South Carolina, and Montana all down .29 percent. Over the 3 months ending in September, 14 states were down, with Massachusetts dropping 1.9 percent, while South Carolina was also down more than 1 percent. The odd New England pattern was ongoing, with Connecticut was on top with an increase of 1.95 and New Hampshire rising more than 1 percent. Over the last 12 months, 3 states were down, Ohio was flat, and another 8 saw increases of less than 1 percent. Rhode Island’s index was off by .6 percent. Arizona had a 4.99 percent increase, and Connecticut, New Hampshire, Idaho, Texas, and Utah had gains of more than 3 percent (Maine was up 2.98 percent—there certainly has been some odd variation in New England).

  The independently estimated national estimates of growth over the last 3 months (.7 percent) and 12 months (2.8 percent) appear to be roughly in line with the state numbers.

  by:Charles Steindel

  |in:Viewpoints
• USA| Oct 22 2024

  State Labor Markets in September 2024

  State labor markets were a bit firmer in September than in other recent months. Five states, plus DC, saw statistically significant increases in payrolls. New Jersey had the largest absolute gain (19,200), while Idaho saw a .7 percent increase (Texas reported an increase of more than 29,000, but this was seen as not statistically different from zero; the gain was only about .2 percent).

  Five states had statistically significant increases in their unemployment rates in September, and one (yet again Connecticut) showed a decline. None of the increases were larger than .2 percentage point. The highest unemployment rates were in DC (5.7%), Nevada (5.6%), California (5.3%), and Illinois (5.3%). No other state had rates as much as a point higher than the national 4.1%. Alabama, Hawaii, Iowa, Maine, Maryland, Mississippi, Nebraska, New Hampshire, North Dakota, South Dakota, Vermont, Virginia, and Wisconsin had rates of 3.0% or lower, with South Dakota at 2.0%.

  Puerto Rico’s unemployment rate dipped to 5.6%--very unusually, matching Nevada and a touch below DC--while the island’s job count grew by 3,600.

  by:Charles Steindel

  |in:Viewpoints
• USA| Sep 27 2024

  State GDP and Personal Income in Q2 2024

  State real GDP growth rates in 2024:2 ranged from Alaska’s -1.1% to Idaho’s 5.9%. There was an odd distribution of agricultural output growth, with pronounced gains in Vermont, Wisconsin, Kansas, Nebraska, New Mexico, and Wyoming, but sharp losses in North Dakota, Arkansas, and Mississippi. Elsewhere, New York’s numbers were swelled substantially by a surge in finance. The industrial Midwest benefitted by increases in durable goods output. As expected, Pennsylvania has become the sixth state with an annual rate of nominal GDP above $1 trillion (with the annual revisions, the Keystone state went above that mark in the first quarter). California’s GDP is now estimated to be higher than $4 trillion, at an annual rate. The five currently above that threshold are California, Texas, New York, Florida, and Illinois; Ohio is the only other state with nominal GDP above $900 billion; New Jersey, Georgia, North Carolina and Washington are above the $800 billion mark.

  Idaho also led in personal income growth, with an 8.3% rate of increase. North Dakota was last at 2.1%. The above-noted distribution of agricultural output growth also appeared in the income numbers, with the indicated high farm output growth states seeing important growth in farm income, and the others unusually large declines in income from that sector. Transfer income growth was, as usual, dispersed, but probably less so than has usually been the cast; a drop in Massachusetts, virtually no change in Texas, and double-digit growth rates in Iowa, South Dakota, and California being of some note.

  by:Charles Steindel

  |in:Viewpoints
• USA| Sep 25 2024

  State Coincident Indexes in August 2024

  The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s state coincident indexes in August were again soft. Connecticut continued to be on top, but its relatively modest .6 percent increase was the only state’s above .5 percent. 24 states saw declines, with Massachusetts and South Carolina down by more than .5 percent. Over the 3 months ending in July, 15 states were down, with Massachusetts dropping 2.1 percent, while South Carolina and Michigan were also down more than 1 percent. Repeating the odd New England pattern, Connecticut was on top with an increase of 2.4 percent, while Alabama and Oregon rose more than 1 percent. Over the last 12 months, 5 states were down, and another 8 saw increases of less than 1 percent. Rhode Island’s index was down 1.6 percent. Arizona had a 4.8 percent increase, and Texas, Idaho, Utah and Connecticut had gains of more than 3 percent (and Nevada was up 2.99 percent).

  The independently estimated national estimate of growth over the last 3 months (.6 percent) and 12 months result (2.7 percent) both appear to be roughly in line with the state numbers.

  by:Charles Steindel

  |in:Viewpoints
• USA| Sep 20 2024

  State Labor Markets in August 2024

  State labor markets were again soft in August. Texas, Indiana, Minnesota, and Wisconsin were the four states, while South Dakota saw a .7 percent decline. Numbers of other states had statistically insignificant drops. An interesting sidelight was that the original report that New York government employment had increased by an incredible 40,600 in July was revised to now show a 4,600 drop that month!

  Six states, and DC, had statistically significant increases in their unemployment rates in August and one (again Connecticut) showed a decline. South Carolina’s rate increased by .4 percentage point. The highest unemployment rates were in DC (5.7%), Nevada (5.5%), California (5.3%), and Illinois (5.3%). No other state had rates as much as a point higher than the national 4.2%. Alabama, Hawaii, Iowa, Maine, Maryland, Mississippi, Nebraska, New Hampshire, North Dakota, South Dakota, Vermont, Virginia, and Wisconsin had rates of 3.0% or lower, with South Dakota at 2.0%.

  Puerto Rico’s unemployment rate was again unchanged at 5.8%, while the island’s job count grew by 3,100.

  by:Charles Steindel

  |in:Viewpoints
• USA| Aug 21 2024

  State Coincident Indexes in July 2024

  The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s state coincident indexes in July were soft. Connecticut was (again) on top with a .8 percent gain from June, but Alabama was the only other state with an increase of as much as .5 percent. A full 22 states saw declines, led by a plunge of 1 percent in Massachusetts (suggesting that the Hartford-Springfield MSA performance was near zero?). And, over the 3 months ending in July, 14 states were down, with Massachusetts off 1.5 percent, and Missouri and Montana seeing 1 percent drops. Connecticut was also on top at this horizon, with an increase of 2.2 percent (clearly, something odd must be happening around the intersection of I-84 and the Mass Pike…). Over the last 12 months, 6 states were down, and another 7 saw increases of less than 1 percent. Continuing the New England focus, Rhode Island’s index was off 1.7 percent. Arizona had a 4.6 percent increase, and 4 other states—mainly in the west—had gains of 3 percent or more.

  The independently estimated national estimate of growth over the last 3 months (.4 percent) seems a bit lower than the state figures would suggest, but the 12-month result (2.4 percent) looks to be roughly in line with the state numbers.

  by:Charles Steindel

  |in:Viewpoints
• USA| Aug 16 2024

  State Labor Markets in July 2024

  State labor markets were generally soft in July. New York and Oregon were the only state with statistically significant gains in payrolls—and roughly ¾ of New York’s seemingly large 41,000 gain was due to a clearly aberrant surge in government employment. Missouri large .7 percent drop (22,400) was the sole statistically significant decline, but numbers of other states reported point drops.

  Thirteen states had statistically significant increases in their unemployment rates in July and one (Connecticut) showed a decline. Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, and South Carolina all registered increases of .3 percentage points. The highest unemployment rates were in DC (5.5%), Nevada (5.4%), California (5.2%), and Illinois (5.2%). No other state had rates as much as a point higher than the national 4.1%. Alabama, Hawaii, Iowa, Maine, Maryland, Mississippi, Nebraska, New Hampshire, North Dakota, South Dakota, Vermont, Virginia, and Wyoming had rates of 3.0% or lower, with South Dakota at 2.0%.

  Puerto Rico’s unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.8%, while the island’s job count fell by 2,100.

  by:Charles Steindel

  |in:Viewpoints
• USA| Jul 24 2024

  State Coincident Indexes in June 2024

  The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s state coincident indexes in June were mixed. Connecticut saw a robust increase of 1.1 percent from May, and Maine rose .7 percent. However, 14 states registered declines, with Massachusetts off nearly .5 percent (obviously some diversity in the performance of New England states!). Over the three months since March, 9 states had increases of more than 1 percent, with Montana up 2.1 percent, but 9 had no change or declines over that period, led by Kansas’s .65 percent drop. The diversity in New England, now localized on the north shore of Long Island Sound, was also evident at this frequency, with Connecticut up 1.9 percent and Rhode Island down .2 percent. Over the last 12 months, Arizona saw an increase of 4.3 percent, with 7 other states up more than 3 percent. However, a full dozen states had growth under 1 percent, and 5 of those saw declines, led by Rhode Island’s 1.2 percent drop.

  The independently estimated national figures of growth over the last 3 (.6 percent) and 12 (2.7 percent) months appear to be roughly in line with the state numbers.

  by:Charles Steindel

  |in:Viewpoints
• USA| Jul 19 2024

  State Labor Markets in June 2024

  State labor markets were yet again mixed to moderate in June, though the number of states with unemployment rates under 3.0% diminished. Eight states had statistically significant gains in payrolls, all in the range of .4 to .6 percent. North Carolina’s increase of 23,100 (.5 percent) was the largest, though California’s statistically insignificant rise of 22,500 was nearly as big.

  Eight states had statistically significant increases in their unemployment rates in June and one showed a decline. The increases were no more than .2 percentage point, but Connecticut’s rate dropped .4 percentage points to 3.9%. The highest unemployment rates were in DC (5.4%), California (5.2%), Nevada (5.2%), and Illinois (5.0%). No other state had rates as much as a point higher than the national 4.1%. Alabama, Hawaii, Iowa, Maine, Maryland, Minnesota, Mississippi, Nebraska, New Hampshire, North Dakota, South Dakota, Tennessee, Vermont, Virginia, Wisconsin, and Wyoming had rates of 3.0% or lower, with both South Dakota at 2.0%.

  Puerto Rico’s unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.8%, while the island’s job count fell by 900.

  by:Charles Steindel

  |in:Viewpoints
• USA| Jun 28 2024

  State GDP and Personal Income in Q1 2024

  State real GDP growth rates in 2024:1 ranged from Idaho’s 5.0% to South Dakota’s -4.2%. Growth tended to be high in the mountain West and the Southeast. Many highly agricultural states in the Plains saw declines, but Illinois, Ohio, Oregon, and Louisiana also saw drops. Pennsylvania is on the verge of becoming the sixth state with current-dollar GDP exceeding one trillion dollars. The five currently above that threshold are California, Texas, New York, Florida, and Illinois; Pennsylvania’s 2024:1 figure was $998 billion, at an annual rate. No other state exceeds $900 billion.

  The distribution of personal income growth was comparable to real GDP. South Carolina first with a 9.5% growth rate, while North Dakota’s .6 % was the lowest. It appears that weakness in farm income held down net earnings in the agricultural regions. As always, the distribution of the growth of transfer payments was erratic and influenced the rankings of total personal income growth, but in this instance, generally slower transfer growth in the Plains merely tended to accentuate the effect of weakness in net earnings. with Nevada again on top with a 6.7% growth rate, while Iowa and North Dakota tied for last with each having a growth rate of 0.8%. Over the last few years, the extension and withdrawal of federal transfers connected to the pandemic often grossly distorted movements in state personal income, and the ranking of states. This has become less evident in recent quarters, though the range of annual growth rates for transfers in 2023:4 did run from 8,1% in Mississippi to -5.0% in Arizona. The large drop in Arizona certainly had a visible effect on its overall income growth; Mississippi’s large gain was less meaningful, since other income components there also grew substantially.

  by:Charles Steindel

  |in:Viewpoints
• USA| Jun 28 2024

  State Coincident Indexes in May 2024

  The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s state coincident indexes in May continued to be mixed, but a touch improved from the initial April results. Idaho and Arizona led with fairly moderate increases of .6 percent from April, while Arizona, West Virginia, and New Hampshire also had gains above.5 percent, but a full ten states, scattered across the nation, saw declines, with Rhode Island down .4 percent. Over the three months since February, 11 states had increases of more than 1 percent, with Montana up 2.4 percent. 15 states had gains under .5 percent, with 3 of those experiencing declines. Over the last 12 months, Arizona was on top with a 4.1 percent increase. There were six other states with increases higher than 3 percent. On the down side, four states (none large) had declines, with West Virginia off 1.8 percent (Montana was off 1.4 percent, despite its strong April), and 9 others had increases of less than 1 percent.

  The independently estimated national figures of growth over the last 3 (.7 percent) and 12 (2.8 percent) months appear to be roughly in line with the state numbers.

  by:Charles Steindel

  |in:Viewpoints