Introducing

Charles Steindel

Charles Steindel has been editor of Business Economics, the journal of the National Association for Business Economics, since 2016. From 2014 to 2021 he was Resident Scholar at the Anisfield School of Business, Ramapo College of New Jersey. From 2010 to 2014 he was the first Chief Economist of the New Jersey Department of the Treasury, with responsibilities for economic and revenue projections and analysis of state economic policy. He came to the Treasury after a long career at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, where he played a major role in forecasting and policy advice and rose to the rank of Senior Vice-President. He has served in leadership positions in a number of professional organizations. In 2011 he received the William F. Butler Award from the New York Association for Business Economics, is a fellow of NABE and of the Money Marketeers of New York University, and has received several awards for articles published in Business Economics. In 2017 he delivered Ramapo College's Sebastian J. Raciti Memorial Lecture. He is a member of the panel for the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's Survey of Professional Forecasters and of the Committee on Research in Income and Wealth. He has published papers in a range of areas, and is the author of Economic Indicators for Professionals: Putting the Statistics into Perspective. He received his bachelor's degree from Emory University, his Ph.D. from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and is a National Association for Business Economics Certified Business EconomistTM.

Publications by Charles Steindel

• USA| Jan 28 2025

  State Labor Markets in December 2024

  State labor markets in December remained in similar patterns to recent months. The vast majority of states reported statistically insignificant increases in payrolls from November; Missouri and Texas were the only ones showing significant gains. A few states reported insignificant drops.

  Eight states had statistically significant changes in their unemployment rates—two down and six up. None of these changes were larger than .2 percentage point. The highest unemployment rates were in Nevada (5.7%), DC (5.5%), California (5.5%), Illinois (5.2%), and Kentucky (5.2%) The number of state with unemployment rates under 3.0% declined, with Nebraska, New Hampshire, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Vermont remaining in that category. South Dakota’s 1.9% was the lowest in the nation.

  Puerto Rico’s unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.4%, while the island’s job count was essentially stable (the point estimate fell by 100).

  by:Charles Steindel

  |in:Viewpoints
• USA| Dec 31 2024

  State Coincident Indexes in November 2024

  The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s state coincident indexes continued to be soft in November. In the one-month changes, Washington (likely aided by the end of the Boeing strike) led with a .62 percent gain, and Delaware and Montana had increases above .5 percent. On the other side, 18 states had declines declined, with Maine, Michigan, and Alabama all down close to .4 percent. Over the 3 months ending in November, 10 states were down, with Massachusetts and South Carolina clocking declines of nearly .7 percent. Delaware, Connecticut, and Missouri were each up more than 1 percent, with Delaware’s 1.27 percent increase the highest. Over the last 12 months, 5 states were down, and 9 others saw increases of less than 1 percent. South Carolina’s index was off by 1.52 percent. Connecticut had a 4.6 percent increase, Arizona rose 4.54 percent and Connecticut was up 4.7 percent, with 4 others up percent or more.

  The independently estimated national estimates of growth over the last 3 months (.55 percent) and 12 months were .70 and 2.64 percent. These both appear to be roughly in line with the state numbers.

  by:Charles Steindel

  |in:Viewpoints
• USA| Dec 20 2024

  State GDP and Personal Income in Q3 2024

  State real GDP growth rates in 2024:3 ranged from North Dakota’s -2.3% to Arkansas’s 6.9%. A large distribution of growth in agriculture output played an important role in distributing growth across the states, with farm losses hurting states in the Great Plains, while boosting output in some others, most notably Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama, and Vermont. Growth was more evenly distributed in less agricultural states; among the largest Texas was on the high side, with a 4.2% growth rate, while New York lagged with a 1.8% figure.

  The distribution of personal income was comparable to that of GDP, with North Dakota’s -0.7% rate of decline at the bottom and Arkansas’s 5.4% on top. Again, developments on the farms contributed to the outliers. Dividends, rent, and interest fell in every state (and DC), while the dispersion in transfer income was fairly modest, though the aggregate income figures for New York, California, and Texas were all aided by faster-than average growth in this category.

  by:Charles Steindel

  |in:Viewpoints
• USA| Dec 20 2024

  State Labor Markets in November 2024

  State labor markets were little-changed in November, save for the after-effects of October disruptions. The end of the Boeing strike, and the rebound from Hurricane Milton, triggered statistically significant gains in payrolls in Washington and Florida. Alaska, DC, and Kansas also saw significant gains.

  Six states had statistically significant increases in their unemployment rates in November, and one (Delaware) showed an decline. None of the changes were larger than .2 percentage point. The highest unemployment rates were in Nevada (5.7%), DC (5.6%), California (5.4%), and Illinois (5.3%). No other state had rates as much as a point higher than the national 4.2%. Hawaii, Maine, New Hampshire, North Dakota, South Dakota, Vermont, and Wisconsin had rates of 3.0% or lower, with South Dakota at 1.9%.

  Puerto Rico’s unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.4%, while the island’s job count grew by 3,300.

  by:Charles Steindel

  |in:Viewpoints
• USA| Nov 22 2024

  State Coincident Indexes in October 2024

  The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s state coincident indexes were again soft in October.. In the one-month changes, South Dakota led with a .67 percent gain, and Connecticut, Ohio, and Delaware had increases above .5 percent. However, the indexes for 13 states declined, with South Carolina and Michigan both down .4 percent (Michigan saw some pronounced retrenchment in autos, and South Carolina would have been hit by the Boeing strike). Over the 3 months ending in September, 12 states were down, with South Carolina (down 1.4 percent) and Massachusetts (off 1.1 percent) once again at the bottom. Connecticut was yet again at the top, with a 1.7 percent increase, with Over the last 12 months, 3 states were down, and 10 saw increases of less than 1 percent. South Carolina’s index was off by 1.2 percent. Arizona had a 4.9 percent increase, and Connecticut was up 4.7 percent, with 7 others up more than 3 percent.

  The independently estimated national estimates of growth over the last 3 months (.55 percent) and 12 months (2.55 percent) appear to be roughly in line with the state numbers.

  by:Charles Steindel

  |in:Viewpoints
• USA| Nov 19 2024

  State Labor Markets in October 2024

  State labor markets were little-changed in October. The Boeing strike, and Hurricane Milton, triggered statistically significant declines in payrolls in Washington and Florida. There were no other statistically significant changes, not even in North Carolina (which did have a insignificant drop). Nonetheless, the sum of payroll changes across the states was -76,400, a clear amount lower than the independent national change of 12,000.

  Three states had statistically significant declines in their unemployment rates in October, and one showed an increase. None of the changes were larger than .2 percentage point. The highest unemployment rates were in DC (5.7%), Nevada (5.7%), California (5.4%), and Illinois (5.3%). No other state had rates as much as a point higher than the national 4.1%. Alabama, Hawaii, Maine, Mississippi, Nebraska, New Hampshire, North Dakota, South Dakota, Vermont, Virginia, and Wisconsin had rates of 3.0% or lower, with South Dakota at 1.9%.

  Puerto Rico’s unemployment rate dropped to 5.4%--lower than both DC and Nevada, and matching California--while the island’s job count grew by 2,300.

  by:Charles Steindel

  |in:Viewpoints
• USA| Oct 26 2024

  State Coincident Indexes in September 2024

  The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s state coincident indexes in September remained soft. Connecticut was, yet again, on top, with a fairly modest .57 percent increase. New Hampshire was the only other state up more than .5 percent. 11 states saw declines, with Massachusetts, South Carolina, and Montana all down .29 percent. Over the 3 months ending in September, 14 states were down, with Massachusetts dropping 1.9 percent, while South Carolina was also down more than 1 percent. The odd New England pattern was ongoing, with Connecticut was on top with an increase of 1.95 and New Hampshire rising more than 1 percent. Over the last 12 months, 3 states were down, Ohio was flat, and another 8 saw increases of less than 1 percent. Rhode Island’s index was off by .6 percent. Arizona had a 4.99 percent increase, and Connecticut, New Hampshire, Idaho, Texas, and Utah had gains of more than 3 percent (Maine was up 2.98 percent—there certainly has been some odd variation in New England).

  The independently estimated national estimates of growth over the last 3 months (.7 percent) and 12 months (2.8 percent) appear to be roughly in line with the state numbers.

  by:Charles Steindel

  |in:Viewpoints
• USA| Oct 22 2024

  State Labor Markets in September 2024

  State labor markets were a bit firmer in September than in other recent months. Five states, plus DC, saw statistically significant increases in payrolls. New Jersey had the largest absolute gain (19,200), while Idaho saw a .7 percent increase (Texas reported an increase of more than 29,000, but this was seen as not statistically different from zero; the gain was only about .2 percent).

  Five states had statistically significant increases in their unemployment rates in September, and one (yet again Connecticut) showed a decline. None of the increases were larger than .2 percentage point. The highest unemployment rates were in DC (5.7%), Nevada (5.6%), California (5.3%), and Illinois (5.3%). No other state had rates as much as a point higher than the national 4.1%. Alabama, Hawaii, Iowa, Maine, Maryland, Mississippi, Nebraska, New Hampshire, North Dakota, South Dakota, Vermont, Virginia, and Wisconsin had rates of 3.0% or lower, with South Dakota at 2.0%.

  Puerto Rico’s unemployment rate dipped to 5.6%--very unusually, matching Nevada and a touch below DC--while the island’s job count grew by 3,600.

  by:Charles Steindel

  |in:Viewpoints
• USA| Sep 27 2024

  State GDP and Personal Income in Q2 2024

  State real GDP growth rates in 2024:2 ranged from Alaska’s -1.1% to Idaho’s 5.9%. There was an odd distribution of agricultural output growth, with pronounced gains in Vermont, Wisconsin, Kansas, Nebraska, New Mexico, and Wyoming, but sharp losses in North Dakota, Arkansas, and Mississippi. Elsewhere, New York’s numbers were swelled substantially by a surge in finance. The industrial Midwest benefitted by increases in durable goods output. As expected, Pennsylvania has become the sixth state with an annual rate of nominal GDP above $1 trillion (with the annual revisions, the Keystone state went above that mark in the first quarter). California’s GDP is now estimated to be higher than $4 trillion, at an annual rate. The five currently above that threshold are California, Texas, New York, Florida, and Illinois; Ohio is the only other state with nominal GDP above $900 billion; New Jersey, Georgia, North Carolina and Washington are above the $800 billion mark.

  Idaho also led in personal income growth, with an 8.3% rate of increase. North Dakota was last at 2.1%. The above-noted distribution of agricultural output growth also appeared in the income numbers, with the indicated high farm output growth states seeing important growth in farm income, and the others unusually large declines in income from that sector. Transfer income growth was, as usual, dispersed, but probably less so than has usually been the cast; a drop in Massachusetts, virtually no change in Texas, and double-digit growth rates in Iowa, South Dakota, and California being of some note.

  by:Charles Steindel

  |in:Viewpoints
• USA| Sep 25 2024

  State Coincident Indexes in August 2024

  The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s state coincident indexes in August were again soft. Connecticut continued to be on top, but its relatively modest .6 percent increase was the only state’s above .5 percent. 24 states saw declines, with Massachusetts and South Carolina down by more than .5 percent. Over the 3 months ending in July, 15 states were down, with Massachusetts dropping 2.1 percent, while South Carolina and Michigan were also down more than 1 percent. Repeating the odd New England pattern, Connecticut was on top with an increase of 2.4 percent, while Alabama and Oregon rose more than 1 percent. Over the last 12 months, 5 states were down, and another 8 saw increases of less than 1 percent. Rhode Island’s index was down 1.6 percent. Arizona had a 4.8 percent increase, and Texas, Idaho, Utah and Connecticut had gains of more than 3 percent (and Nevada was up 2.99 percent).

  The independently estimated national estimate of growth over the last 3 months (.6 percent) and 12 months result (2.7 percent) both appear to be roughly in line with the state numbers.

  by:Charles Steindel

  |in:Viewpoints
• USA| Sep 20 2024

  State Labor Markets in August 2024

  State labor markets were again soft in August. Texas, Indiana, Minnesota, and Wisconsin were the four states, while South Dakota saw a .7 percent decline. Numbers of other states had statistically insignificant drops. An interesting sidelight was that the original report that New York government employment had increased by an incredible 40,600 in July was revised to now show a 4,600 drop that month!

  Six states, and DC, had statistically significant increases in their unemployment rates in August and one (again Connecticut) showed a decline. South Carolina’s rate increased by .4 percentage point. The highest unemployment rates were in DC (5.7%), Nevada (5.5%), California (5.3%), and Illinois (5.3%). No other state had rates as much as a point higher than the national 4.2%. Alabama, Hawaii, Iowa, Maine, Maryland, Mississippi, Nebraska, New Hampshire, North Dakota, South Dakota, Vermont, Virginia, and Wisconsin had rates of 3.0% or lower, with South Dakota at 2.0%.

  Puerto Rico’s unemployment rate was again unchanged at 5.8%, while the island’s job count grew by 3,100.

  by:Charles Steindel

  |in:Viewpoints
• USA| Aug 21 2024

  State Coincident Indexes in July 2024

  The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s state coincident indexes in July were soft. Connecticut was (again) on top with a .8 percent gain from June, but Alabama was the only other state with an increase of as much as .5 percent. A full 22 states saw declines, led by a plunge of 1 percent in Massachusetts (suggesting that the Hartford-Springfield MSA performance was near zero?). And, over the 3 months ending in July, 14 states were down, with Massachusetts off 1.5 percent, and Missouri and Montana seeing 1 percent drops. Connecticut was also on top at this horizon, with an increase of 2.2 percent (clearly, something odd must be happening around the intersection of I-84 and the Mass Pike…). Over the last 12 months, 6 states were down, and another 7 saw increases of less than 1 percent. Continuing the New England focus, Rhode Island’s index was off 1.7 percent. Arizona had a 4.6 percent increase, and 4 other states—mainly in the west—had gains of 3 percent or more.

  The independently estimated national estimate of growth over the last 3 months (.4 percent) seems a bit lower than the state figures would suggest, but the 12-month result (2.4 percent) looks to be roughly in line with the state numbers.

  by:Charles Steindel

  |in:Viewpoints