The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s state coincident indexes in January generally showed moderate, but generally unspectacular, increases. 9 states show declines from December, but none especially large. Massachusetts had a robust 1.1 percent increase. New York was the only other state with a gain as large as .5 percent. Over the 3 months ending in January, Montana was the only one to show a decline, while Massachusetts was up 2.4 percent---a fairly low reading to the leader—while Arizona and Nevada were the only other states with increase of 1 percent or more. Over the last 12 months Massachusetts was also on top, and, again, its 4.6 percent increase was unimpressive for number one. Montana was down a sharp 3 percent, and Maine and West Virginia were also down.
The independently estimated national figures of growth over the last 3 months (.6 percent) a bit lower than the state estimates would have suggested, but the 12-month figure (2.6) percent) looks to be roughly in line with the state numbers.
The state coincident index measures are primarily based on state payroll employment data, and calibrated to state real GDP estimates. This report is a bit of an odd duck—it’s for January, even though the February payroll numbers have been released—and Q4 state GDP numbers will soon be released. On April 3 the February estimates will be available.