Introducing

Charles Steindel

Charles Steindel has been editor of Business Economics, the journal of the National Association for Business Economics, since 2016. From 2014 to 2021 he was Resident Scholar at the Anisfield School of Business, Ramapo College of New Jersey. From 2010 to 2014 he was the first Chief Economist of the New Jersey Department of the Treasury, with responsibilities for economic and revenue projections and analysis of state economic policy. He came to the Treasury after a long career at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, where he played a major role in forecasting and policy advice and rose to the rank of Senior Vice-President. He has served in leadership positions in a number of professional organizations. In 2011 he received the William F. Butler Award from the New York Association for Business Economics, is a fellow of NABE and of the Money Marketeers of New York University, and has received several awards for articles published in Business Economics. In 2017 he delivered Ramapo College's Sebastian J. Raciti Memorial Lecture. He is a member of the panel for the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's Survey of Professional Forecasters and of the Committee on Research in Income and Wealth. He has published papers in a range of areas, and is the author of Economic Indicators for Professionals: Putting the Statistics into Perspective. He received his bachelor's degree from Emory University, his Ph.D. from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and is a National Association for Business Economics Certified Business EconomistTM.

Publications by Charles Steindel

• USA| May 19 2023

  State Labor Markets in April

  Marked changes in state payrolls were limited in April. 5 states saw statistically significant increases, with California up by 67,000 and Indiana seeing a .5 percent increase. Rhode Island had a sharp .8 percent decline, and a few other states (and DC) had insignificant decreases.

  A full 14 states had statistically significant drops in unemployment from March to April. Oregon’s .4 percentage point decline (coming on the heels of a .3 percentage point drop in March) was the largest. Nevada continues to have the highest unemployment rate in the nation, at 5.4 percent. California and DC are the only other places with unemployment more than a point higher than the national averages of 3.4 percent. Alabama, Montana, Nebraska, New Hampshire, both Dakotas, and Utah are more than point under the national figures, with South Dakota remaining at 1.9 percent. Indeed, 17 states, including Florida have unemployment rates below 3 percent. On the flip side, along with California’s 4.5 percent rate, New York and Texas both have jobless figures of 4 percent.

  Puerto Rico’s unemployment rate remained at 6.0 percent, but its job count moved above 950,000 for the first time since 2009. Payrolls on the island had (excepting the Maria and COVID shocks) been under 900,000, but have been on a steady increase in this expansion. The record high was October 2004’s 1,059,200. However, Puerto Rico’s job markets has shifted dramatically since then: private payrolls are now only 400 shy of their peak.

  by:Charles Steindel

  |in:Viewpoints
• USA| Apr 26 2023

  State Coincident Indexes in March 2023

  The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s state coincident indexes in March show only one state (Alaska) with a decline from February. West Virginia again had the largest increase: a whopping 1.69 percent (Massachusetts and South Dakota were just shy of 1 percent). At the three-month horizon Alaska was also the only state to see a loss, and West Virginia registered the highest increase, with its 3.91 percent gain about 1 ¾ percentage points above number 2 Montana. A remarkable 26 states had increases above 1 percent. Over the past 12 months, New Mexico was the leader (as was the case in February’s report) with an increase over 5 percent (Florida was barely short. Florida, Nevada, and Texas were the other states with gains above 4 percent. Wyoming, Vermont, and Kansas were the states with increases less than 1 percent over this period.

  The independently estimated national figures of growth over the last 3 months (.86 percent) seems short of what the state figures suggest, while the corresponding 12-month result (3.85 percent) looks somewhat higher than what the state results might suggest.

  by:Charles Steindel

  |in:Viewpoints
• USA| Apr 21 2023

  State Labor Markets in March 2023

  State payrolls were little-changed in March. Only 2 states (Massachusetts and Kentucky) saw statistically significant increases, and a number saw point declines. The largest numerical gain was Texas’s 28,600. The sum of the changes in all the states was a modest 177,300.

  18 states saw statistically significant declines in unemployment, none larger than the .3 percentage point drops in New Hampshire, Oregon, and West Virginia. DC experienced a .1 percentage point increase. Nevada continued to have the highest unemployment rate, 5.5 percent. The two Washingtons (DC and the state) were the only other places with unemployment rates as much as a point higher than the national average of 3.5 percent. Alabama, Nebraska, New Hampshire, South Dakota, and Wisconsin were at least a pointer under the national rate, with that n South Dakota an incredible 1.9 percent.

  Puerto Rico’s unemployment rate held at 6.0 percent, and its job count was essentially unchanged.

  by:Charles Steindel

  |in:Viewpoints
• USA| Apr 04 2023

  State Coincident Indexes in February 2023

  The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s state coincident indexes in February were generally up. Only 3 states (Connecticut, Pennsylvania, and Massachusetts) saw declines from January; West Virginia’s 1.11 percent gain was far and away the largest. All states saw increases over the three months since November, with only 3 (New Jersey, New York, and Arkansas) having gains less than .5 percent, and 17 growing more than 1 percent (West Virginia was again on top, with a 2.35 percent increase). Over the past 12 months, New Mexico was the only state with an increase over 5 percent (Florida was barely short, while Texas and California were well over 4 percent)), while Hawaii and Kansas were the only states with gains less than 1 percent.

  The independently estimated national figures of growth over the last 3 months (.16 percent) seems a bit short of what the state figures suggest, but the corresponding 12-month result (3.95 percent) looks plausibly in line with those of the states.

  by:Charles Steindel

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• USA| Mar 31 2023

  State GDP and Personal Income in Q4 2022

  State real GDP growth in 2022:Q4 ranged from Texas’s 7.0 percent annual rate to declines in South Dakota, Nebraska, and Iowa. States in the West and South grew more rapidly, while agricultural states, as well as some older industrial states in the Middle West and Northeast, were weaker. Once again, states with large fossil fuel production sectors did well, with both West Virginia and Wyoming joining the oil producers in the top ranks.

  State personal income growth rates ranged from Massachusetts’ 15.3 percent to Colorado’s 2.5 percent decline. The Massachusetts number was an artifact of a 76.1 percent rate of increase in transfers, while Colorado saw a 38.5 percent rate of decline in that area (a correction for a freak surge in the third quarter). Growth of “net earnings” (employee compensation plus proprietors’ income) was evener, though Nevada saw a double-digit rate of gain there (Oregon was nearly as strong) while South Dakota eked out a 1.0 percent growth rate.

  by:Charles Steindel

  |in:Viewpoints
• USA| Mar 24 2023

  State Labor Markets in February 2023

  State labor markets in February were mixed. Only 6 states had statistically significant gains in payrolls, with Texas’s 58,200 increase the largest; Hawaii and Utah saw .6 percent increases. Arkansas, Kansas, Maryland, and New Hampshire report insignificant declines.

  Nine states had statistically significant declines in their unemployment rates from January to February, while 3—and DC—had increases. None of the moves were larger than .2 percentage points. As was the case in January, the 2.1 percent rates in both Dakotas were the nation’s lowest, while Nevada’s 5.5 percent was far and away the highest (number two was Oregon). The Dakotas, Alabama, DC, Nevada, and Oregon were the only places whose unemployment rates were more than one point different than the national average of 3.6% (Alabama joining the Dakotas on the low side, DC and Oregon high).

  Puerto Rico’s job count was virtually unchanged in February, and the island’s unemployment rate was also unchanged at 6.0 percent.

  by:Charles Steindel

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• USA| Mar 13 2023

  State Labor Markets in January 2023

  State labor markets in January generally showed some gains from December. 20 states had statistically significant gains in payrolls; California’s job count increase was 96,700 (about double number 2 Texas), and both Arizona and Tennessee saw .7 percent gains. Kansas, Rhode Island, and Wyoming had modest point declines. Over the last 12 months, 47 states had significant increases, with Texas having the highest numerical increase (654,100) and Nevada the highest percentage gain (6.0). the way in both numbers and percentage (650,100 and 5.0, respectively). There were no point declines.

  Unemployment rates were little-changed; a few states had statistically significant moves from December, but none larger than .2 percentage points (in either direction). The 2.1 percent rates in both Dakotas were the nation’s lowest, while Nevada’s 5.5 percent was far and away the highest (number two was Oregon). Only 6 states were more than one point away from the national average of 3.4%, and 3 of those (the Dakotas and Delaware) are small.

  Puerto Rico’s gained more than 5,000 jobs in January. The overall payroll count on the island is nearing its highest level in more than a decade, while the private-sector is approaching an all-time peak. The unemployment rate (which had not been reported for some months) was unchanged at 6.0 percent, despite a .9 percent gain in the labor force. Revised data show that Puerto Rico’s unemployment rate set a record low of 5.8 percent last June. Data are not released for Puerto Rico on the labor force participation rate or the ratio of employment to population, but considering that the population of Puerto Rico is roughly the as Iowa’s, and its labor force is no more than 70% as large, it is clear that despite good numbers in recent years, there is still a long way to go before the island’s labor market can be seen as comparable to mainland norms.

  by:Charles Steindel

  |in:Viewpoints
• USA| Jan 31 2023

  State Coincident Indexes in December 2022

  The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s state coincident indexes in December were somewhat mixed. The indexes in 16 states were down from November, thought the largest decline was Minnesota’s fairly modest .41 percent. Of more concern was 16 states showing declines at the three-month horizon percent, and two more unchanged. Three states (Minnesota, Maine, and Vermont) had declines larger than .5 percent. On the upside, only seven had gains of more than 1 percent, which is less than what has recently been the case (Texas was the only one of the 4 largest states in this group). Over the past 12 months the count of states seeing gains of 5 percent or more was reduced to 9 (including California, Florida, and Texas) while 4 states (Arizona, Montana, Mississippi, and Oklahoma) had increases under 2 percent.

  The independently estimated national figures of growth over the last 3 (.81 percent) and 12 (4.12 percent) were plausibly in line with the state results.

  by:Charles Steindel

  |in:Viewpoints
• USA| Jan 24 2023

  State Labor Markets in December 2022

  State labor markets in December were essentially unchanged from November. West Virginia was the only state to report a statistically significant change in payrolls (a 1.4 percent drop). Texas had the largest (not statistically significant) increase: 29,500. Over the last 12 months, 42 states had significant increases, with Texas leading the way in both numbers and percentage (650,100 and 5.0, respectively). There were no point declines.

  Unemployment rates rose significantly in 7 states and dropped in 5. Nevada’s .3 percentage point increase and Maryland’s .3 percent point decline were the largest moves. Utah’s 2.2 percent was the lowest rate, and Nevada’s 5.2 percent was the highest. The Dakota’s were the only other states with unemployment under 2.5 percent. Illinois and DC both had 4.7 percetn unemployment rates. In sum, 46 states had unemployment rates no more than 1 percentage point different than the national average of 3.5 percent.

  Puerto Rico’s job count edged down 1,500. Yet again there was insufficient information to compute the (seasonally-adjusted) unemployment rate on the island.

  by:Charles Steindel

  |in:Viewpoints
• USA| Dec 29 2022

  State Coincident Indexes in November 2022

  The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s state coincident indexes in November, showed softness, but on balance no more so, and arguably less, than in October. The indexes in 14 states dropped from October (little more than half the number that had one-month declines in the initial October results), all less than .5 percent. At the three-month horizon 12 states saw their index decline from August to November, but only 4 small-population ones (Vermont, Montana, Maine, and Rhode Island) clocked drops of more than .5 percent. However, large gains were also rare over these three months; a fairly moderate number (10) had gains of more than 1 percent (this group did include New York and Florida), with Hawaii’s 2.62 percent far and away the best. Over the past 12 months, 13 states (including California, New York, and Florida) had increase of at least 5 percent, but this count is also down from the first October results. 4 states (Arizona, Montana, Mississippi, and Oklahoma) had increases under 2 percent.

  in November the independently estimated national figures of growth over the last 3 (.78 percent) and 12 (4.29 percent) months do not appear terribly out of line with the state figures.

  All states have set new peaks in this series in this expansion. Connecticut had been the last holdout, but the revised dataset shows that the Nutmeg state exceeded the old mark in July.

  by:Charles Steindel

  |in:Viewpoints
• USA| Dec 23 2022

  State GDP and Personal Income

  State real GDP growth ranged from Alaska's 8.7 percent annual rate to Mississippi's -0.7 percent. States in the West grew more rapidly, while softness was more evident in the central part of the nation. In general, energy-producing states like Alaska fared best--Texas's number 2 8.2 percent growth rate was nearly half the result of increased mining output—while farm-oriented states were weaker. The Dakotas are the real exemplars of this effect: ex-mining, North Dakota's 5.2 percent growth rate would have been close to South Dakota-s -0.5 percent rate of decline. ranged widely in 2022: Q2.

  Looking at industry contributions, major sources of declines were construction, nondurable goods manufacturing, and wholesale trade (all three down in every state). A large pickup in accommodations and food services was arithmetically responsible for Hawaii being one of the few states with a real GDP increase.

  State personal income growth ran the gamut from Colorado's 14.2 percent growth rate to Indiana's 1.9 percent. Maine and New Mexico, along with Colorado, saw astonishing rates of growth in transfer payments, while Indiana was held down by a drop in that income category. “Net earnings” (employee compensation plus proprietors' income) was much evener, with Texas's growth rate of 8.5 percent at the top and Indiana's 3.2 percent the lowest.

  Last week the numbers on 2021 nominal and real personal consumption and real personal income by state were issued. The high for real spending growth was Utah's 12.5 percent, while West Virginia's 2.0 percent was the low. Numbers of states in the Rocky Mountains had growth exceeding 10 percent, as did Massachusetts, New Jersey, and Florida. West Virginia and Alaska (3.1 percent) were considerable outliers on the low side: no other state was under 5 percent.

  The availability of both nominal and real consumer spending figures allows for the computation of state consumption price deflators and their growth. The range of growth went from Vermont's 0.5 percent to West Virginia's 8.1. Other New England states—Maine, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, and Connecticut—also saw deflator growth under 2 percent., while Arizona Nevada, and New Mexico were also on the low side. Other high growth states included Alaska and South Carolina (North Carolina was also high). Differences in state deflators, and their growth, would largely reflect differences in service costs (as one would expect, Alaska and Hawaii have the largest divergence in good price levels), especially housing, but also utilities. Thus, it isn't surprising that there is some regional theme to divergences.

  by:Charles Steindel

  |in:Viewpoints
• USA| Dec 16 2022

  State Labor Markets in November 2022

  State labor market results in November continue to show lessened improvement and, in some measures, some softening. Eight states had statistically significant increases in payrolls. West Virginia saw a 1 percent gain, and New Hampshire’s .6 percent was the only other gain higher than ½ percent. Florida saw the largest numerical increase. Its 28,100 is fairly small compared to earlier months, where the leaders generally with state pickups of more than 50,000 Over the last 12 months, every state (and DC) saw a gain in payrolls, but in six cases (as well as in DC) the increases were not seen as statistically significant. Texas’s 5.1 percent gain over this period was the largest.

  12 states saw statistically significant increases in their unemployment rates from October to November, but none larger and .3 percentage point. Three states, and DC, had statistically significant declines, none greater than .2 percentage point. Nevada’s 4.9 percent rate was the nation’s highest, with DC and Illinois also posting rates above 4.5 percent; Utah’s 2.2 percent the lowest, with Minnesota and both Dakotas the other ones with rates under 2.5 percent (in October seven states had rates of 2.4 percent or lower).

  Puerto Rico's job count rose by more than 4,000, but once again there was insufficient information to compute the (seasonally-adjusted) unemployment rate on the island.

  by:Charles Steindel

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