Economy in Brief: June 2003

Retail sales rose an expected 0.1% in May following a 0.3% April decline. The April decline was revised deeper than the initially reported 0.1% drop due to a lowered number for motor vehicle sales. Sales excluding motor vehicles and [...]

The index of mortgage applications compiled by the Mortgage Bankers Association fell 9.3% last week. The most recent level was the second highest on record and followed a 13.6% gain the prior week. During all of May mortgage [...]

Chain store sales fell 0.3% last week following four weeks of flat to down movement, according to the BTM-UBSW survey. Sales began the month of June 0.3% below the May average. During the last five years there has been a 59% [...]

Consumer credit outstanding (which excludes mortgages) surged $10.7B (7.3% AR) in April. Consensus expectations had been for a $2.0B rise. March figures were little revised. During the first four months of this year, consumer credit [...]

The unemployment rate rose to 6.1% in May, matching Consensus expectations. It was the highest rate of unemployment since July 1994. Employment fell 200,000 (+0.7% y/y), the third down month this year. The labor force rose 12,000 [...]

Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose more than expected last week. The 3.8% w/w rise to 442,000 was the largest weekly gain since early April and was to a five week high. Consensus expectations were for initial claims last [...]

Nonfarm labor productivity last quarter was revised up right in line with Consensus expectations for 1.9% growth. The revision stemmed from an upward revision to output growth to 1.8% from the initial estimate of 1.4%. The initial [...]

Indications are rising that the European Central Bank may reduce its benchmark interest rate at its next meeting on June 5th. The rate was last reduced in March to 2.5% from 2.75% and compares with the U.S. benchmark rate of 1.25% The [...]