Tom Moeller

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070221d.jpg" width="353">
The total number of mortgage applications dropped 5.2%% last week to the lowest level since the last week in December, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.
Purchase applications dropped 4.8% for the fifth down week in the last six.
During the last ten years there has been a 58% correlation between the y/y change in purchase applications and the change in new plus existing single family home sales.
Applications to refinance fell 5.4% for the first down week in a month.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070221e.jpg" width="353">
The effective interest rate on a conventional 30-year mortgage fell nine basis points to 6.37%. Rates averaged 6.40% last month and 6.28% in December. The peak for 30 year financing was 7.08% late in June. Rates for 15-year financing also fell to 6.14%, the lowest in a month. Interest rates on 15 and 30 year mortgages are closely correlated (&gt;90%) with the rate on 10 year Treasury securities.
During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 79% correlation between the level of applications for purchase and the effective interest rate on a 30-year mortgage.
The Mortgage Bankers Association surveys between 20 to 35 of the top lenders in the U.S. housing industry to derive its refinance, purchase and market indexes. The weekly survey covers roughly 50% of all U.S. residential mortgage applications processed each week by mortgage banks, commercial banks and thrifts. Visit the Mortgage Bankers Association site <a href="http://www.mbaa.org">here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
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<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/SURVEYW/@S5/@S5.HTM">MBA Mortgage Applications (3/16/90=100)</a></th>
<th scope="col">02/16/07</th>
<th scope="col">02/09/07</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Total Market Index</td>
<td>606.6</td>
<td>639.8</td>
<td>4.9%</td>
<td>584.2</td>
<td>708.6</td>
<td>735.1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Purchase</td>
<td>381.4</td>
<td>400.7</td>
<td>-6.7%</td>
<td>406.9</td>
<td>470.9</td>
<td>454.5</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Refinancing</td>
<td>1,921.1</td>
<td>2,031.7</td>
<td>22.3%</td>
<td>1,634.0</td>
<td>2,092.3</td>
<td>2,366.8</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
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The total number of mortgage applications dropped 5.2%% last week to the lowest level since the last week in December, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. Purchase applications dropped 4.8% for the fifth down week in the [...]

Mortgage Applications Off Sharply

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070221c.jpg" width="353">
Unleaded gasoline prices at the pump rose for the third straight week to an average $2.30 per gallon. Since the late January low, prices have risen 13 cents (6.1%) but they are still well below the peaks of last year.
After rising with colder temperatures, fuel oil prices fell a nickel in the latest week to $1.64 per gallon (0.2% y/y) though natural gas prices rose further last week to $8.44 mmbtu (16.1% y/y).
Crude oil prices fell one dollar last week to $58.08 per barrel of WTI crude and have been trading plus or minus one dollar that level this week. 
The latest Short-Term Energy Outlook from the U.S. Energy Information Administration is available <a href="http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/contents.html">here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/surveyw/@S2/@S2.HTM">Weekly Energy Prices</a></th>
<th scope="col">02/19/07</th>
<th scope="col">02/12/07</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">US Retail Gasoline Price, Regular</td>
<td>$2.30</td>
<td>$2.24</td>
<td>2.5%</td>
<td>$2.57</td>
<td>$2.27</td>
<td>$1.85</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>


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Unleaded gasoline prices at the pump rose for the third straight week to an average $2.30 per gallon. Since the late January low, prices have risen 13 cents (6.1%) but they are still well below the peaks of last year. After rising [...]

Gasoline Prices Firmed Further

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070221a.jpg" width="353">
The consumer price index (CPI-U) rose 0.2% last month. The gain was half the 0.4% increase in December but it greatly exceeded Consensus expectations for no change.
A firm gain in core prices was behind the strength. Prices less food &amp; energy rose 0.3% following three consecutive months of 0.1% increase. Consensus expectations had been for a lesser 0.2% increase.
Core goods prices posted a 0.1% (-0.2% y/y) increase which was the firmest gain since August. The rise was powered by a 3.1% (5.5% y/y) spike in tobacco prices. Apparel prices also rose a relatively firm 0.3% (1.0% y/y) which was the strongest gain since September. Many other goods prices, however, fell. Household furnishings &amp; operations prices fell 0.3% (+0.5% y/y). New &amp; used motor vehicles prices fell 0.2% (-1.4% y/y), down for the sixth straight month but medical care commodities rose 0.6% (2.2% y/y).
Core services prices rose 0.3% as shelter prices increased 0.3% (4.3% y/y) for the second month reflecting a mild 0.2% (4.3% y/y) gain in owner&#39;s equivalent rent, the weakest monthly increase in a year. Medical services prices jumped 0.9% (4.9% y/y) but education prices increased just 0.1% (5.8% y/y). Prices for public transportation surged 1.5% (0.7% y/y), the most for any one month since 2004.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070221b.jpg" width="353">
Energy prices fell 1.5% (-2.9% y/y) as gasoline prices slipped 3.0% (-2.7% y/y) and heating oil prices dropped 4.4% (-0.7% y/y). Piped gas &amp; electricity prices, however, rose 0.5% (-3.4% y/y).
Food &amp; beverage prices posted a strong 0.7% increase as dairy &amp; related products surged 1.3% (-0.2% y/y) and meats, poultry &amp; fish rose 0.8%% (2.1% y/y).
The chained CPI, which adjusts for shifts in the mix of consumer purchases, rose 0.3% and the chained &quot;core&quot; rose the same 0.3%.
Milton Friedman on Inflation from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis can be found <a href="http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/mt/20070101/cover.pdf"> here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@E8/@E801/@E80101/@E80101.HTM">Consumer Price Index</a> </th>
<th scope="col">January</th>
<th scope="col">December</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Total&nbsp;</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>2.1%</td>
<td>3.2%</td>
<td>3.4%</td>
<td>2.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;Total less Food &amp; Energy</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
<td>2.7%</td>
<td>2.5%</td>
<td>2.2%</td>
<td>1.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Goods less Food &amp; Energy</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
<td>-0.2%</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>0.5%</td>
<td>-0.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Services less Energy</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>3.8%</td>
<td>3.4%</td>
<td>2.8%</td>
<td>2.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;Energy</td>
<td>-1.5%</td>
<td>4.2%</td>
<td>-2.9%</td>
<td>11.1%</td>
<td>16.9%</td>
<td>10.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;Food &amp; Beverages</td>
<td>0.7%</td>
<td>-0.1%</td>
<td>2.4%</td>
<td>2.3%</td>
<td>2.4%</td>
<td>3.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@E8/@E801/@E80113/@E80113.HTM">Chained CPI: Total (NSA)</a> </td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
<td>1.9%</td>
<td>2.9%</td>
<td>2.9%</td>
<td>2.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;Total less Food &amp; Energy</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>-0.2%</td>
<td>2.3%</td>
<td>2.3%</td>
<td>1.9%</td>
<td>1.7%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
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The consumer price index (CPI-U) rose 0.2% last month. The gain was half the 0.4% increase in December but it greatly exceeded Consensus expectations for no change. A firm gain in core prices was behind the strength. Prices less food [...]

CPI Up More Than Expected: Tobacco & Medical Care Strong

Louise Curley

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070220b.jpg" width="353">
Details of France&#39;s fourth quarter Gross Domestic Product were released today.The 0.65% increase in GDP for the fourth quarter reported in the flash estimate of a week ago was confirmed. It compares with a 0.87% increase reported for Germany. For the year as a whole, French GDP rose 2.0 and Germany, 2.9%. 2006 marked the first time since 1995, that Germany&#39;s annual growth rate exceeded that of France. The first chart shows the annual growth of both countries&#39; GDPs.
<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070220e.jpg" width="353"> In the second chart we have plotted, for France, the sum of consumption and gross fixed capital formation as a proxy for domestic demand and total gross domestic product. The difference between the two lines is roughly equivalent to France&#39;s net exports of goods and services. Until about mid 2003 France maintained a surplus on trade in goods and services. For a year or so, there was a balance and ever since late 2004, a deficit. It is this shift in the French trade balance that is largely responsible for the deceleration in French economic growth. In contrast to France, Germany has experienced an increasingly favorable balance of trade in goods since 2001, as can be seen in the third chart.<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070220c.jpg" width="353"> (In this chart we have used the nominal figures to simplify the calculations necessary for the comparison.Real values of German net exports in billions of euros have to be calculated. The nominal values are available. While French net exports are available in both real and nominal terms, the data are in millions of euros and have to be converted into billions.)

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">Q4&nbsp; 06</th>
<th scope="col">3Q 06</th>
<th scope="col">2Q 06</th>
<th scope="col">1Q 06</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">France&nbsp; (% change)</td>
<td>0.65</td>
<td>0.01</td>
<td>1.06</td>
<td>0.50</td>
<td>1.96</td>
<td>1.21</td>
<td>2.03</td>
<td>1.13</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Germany (% change</td>
<td>.087</td>
<td>0.79</td>
<td>1.18</td>
<td>0.84</td>
<td>2.89</td>
<td>1.10</td>
<td>0.77</td>
<td>-0.20</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">NET EXPORT OF GOODS AND SERVICES</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">France (billion euros)</td>
<td>-7.27</td>
<td>-8.58</td>
<td>-8.00</td>
<td>-5.87</td>
<td>-29.72</td>
<td>-16.70</td>
<td>4.30</td>
<td>15.38</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Germany&nbsp; (billion euros)</td>
<td>n.a.</td>
<td>29.56</td>
<td>25.36</td>
<td>25.42</td>
<td>n.a.</td>
<td>115.47</td>
<td>109.76</td>
<td>85.75</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

Details of France's fourth quarter Gross Domestic Product were released today.The 0.65% increase in GDP for the fourth quarter reported in the flash estimate of a week ago was confirmed. It compares with a 0.87% increase reported for [...]

French Economic Growth vis-ŕ-vis Germany's

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070220a.jpg" width="353">
The National Activity Index (CFNAI) from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago in January reversed all of its upwardly revised December improvement. The decline to -0.74 was to the lowest level since September 2005.
The three-month moving average of the CFNAI also fell sharply to -0.29 and it was the fifth straight month in negative territory.
A zero value of the CFNAI indicates that the economy is expanding at its historical trend rate of growth and during the last twenty years there has been a 68% correlation between the level of the CFNAI and q/q growth in real GDP.
All of the CFNAI components contributed to the January decline including production, employment, consumption and housing.
The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of economic activity. The indicators reflect activity in the following categories: production and income, the labor market, personal consumption and housing, manufacturing and trade sales, and inventories &amp; orders.
The complete CFNAI report is available <a href="http://www.chicagofed.org/economic_research_and_data/files/cfnai_Februarry2007.pdf">here</a>.
Michigan Labor Market--Still Awaiting Recovery from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago can be found <a href="http://midwest.chicagofedblogs.org/archives/2007/02/michigan_labor_1.html"> here</a>.

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/SURVEYS/@S5/@S503/@S503.HTM">Chicago Fed</a></th>
<th scope="col">January</th>
<th scope="col">December</th>
<th scope="col">January &#39;06</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">CFNAI</td>
<td>-0.74</td>
<td>0.36</td>
<td>0.48</td>
<td>0.02</td>
<td>0.25</td>
<td>0.31</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>


</html>

The National Activity Index (CFNAI) from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago in January reversed all of its upwardly revised December improvement. The decline to -0.74 was to the lowest level since September 2005. The three-month [...]

Chicago Fed Nat'l Activity Index Quite Negative

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070220a.jpg" width="353">
The National Activity Index (CFNAI) from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago in January reversed all of its upwardly revised December improvement. The decline to -0.74 was to the lowest level since September 2005.
The three-month moving average of the CFNAI also fell sharply to -0.29 and it was the fifth straight month in negative territory.
A zero value of the CFNAI indicates that the economy is expanding at its historical trend rate of growth and during the last twenty years there has been a 68% correlation between the level of the CFNAI and q/q growth in real GDP.
All of the CFNAI components contributed to the January decline including production, employment, consumption and housing.
The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of economic activity. The indicators reflect activity in the following categories: production and income, the labor market, personal consumption and housing, manufacturing and trade sales, and inventories &amp; orders.
The complete CFNAI report is available <a href="http://www.chicagofed.org/economic_research_and_data/files/cfnai_Februarry2007.pdf">here</a>.
Michigan Labor Market--Still Awaiting Recovery from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago can be found <a href="http://midwest.chicagofedblogs.org/archives/2007/02/michigan_labor_1.html"> here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/SURVEYS/@S5/@S503/@S503.HTM">Chicago Fed</a></th>
<th scope="col">January</th>
<th scope="col">December</th>
<th scope="col">January &#39;06</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">CFNAI</td>
<td>-0.74</td>
<td>0.36</td>
<td>0.48</td>
<td>0.02</td>
<td>0.25</td>
<td>0.31</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
French Economic Growth vis-à-vis Germany's  
by <a href="/comment/Curley.html">Louise Curley</a> February 20, 2007


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070220b.jpg" width="353">
Details of France&#39;s fourth quarter Gross Domestic Product were released today.The 0.65% increase in GDP for the fourth quarter reported in the flash estimate of a week ago was confirmed. It compares with a 0.87% increase reported for Germany. For the year as a whole, French GDP rose 2.0 and Germany, 2.9%. 2006 marked the first time since 1995, that Germany&#39;s annual growth rate exceeded that of France. The first chart shows the annual growth of both countries&#39; GDPs.
<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070220e.jpg" width="353"> In the second chart we have plotted, for France, the sum of consumption and gross fixed capital formation as a proxy for domestic demand and total gross domestic product. The difference between the two lines is roughly equivalent to France&#39;s net exports of goods and services. Until about mid 2003 France maintained a surplus on trade in goods and services. For a year or so, there was a balance and ever since late 2004, a deficit. It is this shift in the French trade balance that is largely responsible for the deceleration in French economic growth. In contrast to France, Germany has experienced an increasingly favorable balance of trade in goods since 2001, as can be seen in the third chart.<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070220c.jpg" width="353"> (In this chart we have used the nominal figures to simplify the calculations necessary for the comparison.Real values of German net exports in billions of euros have to be calculated. The nominal values are available. While French net exports are available in both real and nominal terms, the data are in millions of euros and have to be converted into billions.)

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">Q4&nbsp; 06</th>
<th scope="col">3Q 06</th>
<th scope="col">2Q 06</th>
<th scope="col">1Q 06</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">France&nbsp; (% change)</td>
<td>0.65</td>
<td>0.01</td>
<td>1.06</td>
<td>0.50</td>
<td>1.96</td>
<td>1.21</td>
<td>2.03</td>
<td>1.13</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Germany (% change</td>
<td>.087</td>
<td>0.79</td>
<td>1.18</td>
<td>0.84</td>
<td>2.89</td>
<td>1.10</td>
<td>0.77</td>
<td>-0.20</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">NET EXPORT OF GOODS AND SERVICES</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">France (billion euros)</td>
<td>-7.27</td>
<td>-8.58</td>
<td>-8.00</td>
<td>-5.87</td>
<td>-29.72</td>
<td>-16.70</td>
<td>4.30</td>
<td>15.38</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Germany&nbsp; (billion euros)</td>
<td>n.a.</td>
<td>29.56</td>
<td>25.36</td>
<td>25.42</td>
<td>n.a.</td>
<td>115.47</td>
<td>109.76</td>
<td>85.75</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>


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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070219a.jpg" width="353">
IG Metall, the powerful metal workers&#39; union in Germany, has announced that it will seek a 6% increase in wages when negotiations begin in next month. Haver&#39;s GERMAN Database contains a number of series that may provide background for appraising labor&#39;s demands. In the Employment, Earning, Productivity and Costs section, among others, there are indexes based on 2000=100 for wages and salaries per worker, per working hour, per unit of output and per unit of turnover. In addition indexes are available for productivity. In the National Accounts section, the shares of labor income and entrepreneurial, investment and property income in National Income are given.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070219b.jpg" width="353">
Wage per hour increases in Germany have been subdued over the past four years. During this time the annual increases in the index of German wages and salaries per hour have been between 1.15% and 1.84%. This has been the longest period of such low growth since the country was reunited in 1991 as can be seen in the first chart.<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070219c.jpg" width="353">
At the same time that labor compensation has experienced slow growth, productivity has shown good growth with the result that unit labor costs have declined sharply as can be seen in the second chart. The decline in unit labor costs, in turn, has resulted in a growing share of total national income going to entrepreneurial, investment and property income. The third chart compares the annual gains and losses of the two shares of income. Since the shares add up to 100%, what one gains, the other loses. Labor has lost share in most years with the result that its share has declined to 67.9% in 2005, from 72.9% in 1993, the post unification peak. At the same time, the share of capital income has risen from 27.1% to 32.6%. These trends have continued into 2006 where the average for the first three quarters of the year show a 66.3% share for labor income and a 33.7% share for capital income.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">GERMANY&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Wages &amp; Salaries per Working Hour (% Chg)</td>
<td>1.15</td>
<td>1.20</td>
<td>1.84</td>
<td>1.44</td>
<td>3.09</td>
<td>3.27</td>
<td>2.91</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;Productivity&nbsp; (% Chg)</td>
<td>5.18</td>
<td>4.66</td>
<td>4.70</td>
<td>1.83</td>
<td>2.82</td>
<td>1.23</td>
<td>5.99</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Unit Labor Cost (% Chg)</td>
<td>-3.85</td>
<td>-3.29</td>
<td>-2.76</td>
<td>-0.37</td>
<td>-0.25</td>
<td>2.01</td>
<td>-2.92</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Labor Share in National Income (%)</td>
<td>66.3*</td>
<td>67.4</td>
<td>68.9</td>
<td>40.9</td>
<td>71.6</td>
<td>71.8</td>
<td>72.2</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Capital Share in National Income (%)</td>
<td>33.7*</td>
<td>32.6</td>
<td>31.1</td>
<td>27.1</td>
<td>28.4</td>
<td>28.2</td>
<td>27.8</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
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IG Metall, the powerful metal workers' union in Germany, has announced that it will seek a 6% increase in wages when negotiations begin in next month. Haver's GERMAN Database contains a number of series that may provide background for [...]

German Labor Demanding Big Increase in Wages

Carol Stone, CBE

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070216c.jpg" width="353">
The producer price index for finished goods fell 0.6% following its 0.9% rise in December. This result was close to consensus forecasts of a 0.5% decline. It was, as anticipated, led by a drop in energy prices; this ran 4.6%. Food prices continued rising, adding 1.1% after December&#39;s 1.5%.
The core finished goods PPI rose 0.2%, the same as in December and also equal to forecasts. Note that the BLS conducted its annual seasonal adjustment revisions on these data, so 2006 figures quoted here may differ from those reported last month.
Energy prices fell sharply in January: gasoline was down 13.0% in the month and 9.7% from January 2006. Fuel oil fell 8.3% from December and 2.3% from a year ago. Natural gas prices were off 1.9% in January, carrying the 12-month change to -15.1%. <img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070216d.jpg" width="353">
Finished consumer goods prices less food &amp; energy rose 0.2% (1.5% y/y); the seasonal factor revisions shaved 0.1% off the December increase, leaving it at 0.1%. Within that subset, passenger car prices edged down 0.1% (-0.5% y/y) after December&#39;s 0.2% decline.
Capital equipment prices increased 0.2% (2.3% y/y), with December&#39;s rise trimmed to 0.1%. January light truck prices were off 1.4%; these prices have settled down after their whipsaw in October and November, and now, notably, they are just 0.3% above year-earlier readings. 
Intermediate goods prices declined 0.7% in January and were a modest 1.2% above January 2006. The corresponding &quot;core&quot; index was unchanged for a second month in a row and it has slowed to a 3.8% y/y increase compared with 5-6% increases across much of the last three years. The recent slowdown is showing in building materials: lumber, plasterboard and the like, and in metal products. 
The crude materials PPI was down 6.3%, led by the drop in crude petroleum prices of 9.2%; this put the total crude index down 8.0% y/y. Judging by the behavior of spot prices, about half of that drop in oil has since reversed. The core crude materials PPI was up 1.6%, with increases in logs and timber and in iron and steel scrap. In contrast, nonferrous ores and copper scrap are slowing down after their dramatic rises through the middle of last year.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@E8/@E802/@E80201/@E80201.HTM">Producer Price Index</a></th>
<th scope="col">Jan 2007</th>
<th scope="col">Dec 2006</th>
<th scope="col">Nov 2006</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Finished Goods</td>
<td>-0.6</td>
<td>0.9%&nbsp;</td>
<td>1.8%</td>
<td>&nbsp; 0.2%&nbsp;</td>
<td>2.9%</td>
<td>&nbsp;4.9%&nbsp;</td>
<td>3.6%&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Core</td>
<td>0.2</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>1.1%</td>
<td>&nbsp;1.7%</td>
<td>1.4%</td>
<td>2.4%</td>
<td>1.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Intermediate Goods</td>
<td>-0.7</td>
<td>0.5%</td>
<td>0.6%</td>
<td>1.2%</td>
<td>6.5%</td>
<td>&nbsp;8.0%</td>
<td>6.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Core</td>
<td>0.0</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
<td>-0.4%</td>
<td>3.8%</td>
<td>6.1%</td>
<td>&nbsp;5.5%</td>
<td>5.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Crude Goods</td>
<td>-6.3</td>
<td>&nbsp;2.8%&nbsp;</td>
<td>15.5%</td>
<td>&nbsp;-8.0%</td>
<td>1.7%</td>
<td>14.6%</td>
<td>&nbsp;17.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Core</td>
<td>1.6</td>
<td>0.5%</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>&nbsp;17.8%</td>
<td>21.0%</td>
<td>4.9%</td>
<td>&nbsp;26.5%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

The producer price index for finished goods fell 0.6% following its 0.9% rise in December. This result was close to consensus forecasts of a 0.5% decline. It was, as anticipated, led by a drop in energy prices; this ran 4.6%. Food [...]

PPI Eases with Lower Energy; Core Rate Steady

USD/EUR exchange rate uncoupling from interest rate differential

Widespread downgrading of 2025 GDP outlook

Trade and fiscal policy uncertainty has exploded with the new administration

Much lower US electricity costs gives it a competitive advantage

Wage growth slowing in the US and Euro area; elevated and sticky in the UK

Stagflation-lite: Blue Chip forecasts below-trend growth and elevated inflation

US policy gyrations boosting policy uncertainty worldwide

Expected tariff hikes have boosted inflation expectations

US and Japan ended 2024 on solid ground in contrast to Europe

US economy expected to outperform other major economies in 2025

Only modest evidence of AI-related surge in US productivity growth

Previous Trump tariffs fading. A boost from new tariffs ahead?

Heavy US manufacturing states underperforming while Sun Belt states outperforming

Rising long-term yields a global phenomenon

US financial market concerns shifting from growth to inflation

Economic activity is picking up in the US but remains lackluster abroad

Policy uncertainty has surged since the US national elections.

Recent turnaround in US economic surprises leading to increases in rate-cut expectations

The outlook has brightened in the US, while it has dimmed for other major economies

Headline US PCE inflation elevated by sticky services prices

US and global equity prices have recently diverged

US leading global upturn in economic surprises

Blue Chip forecasters look for further significant monetary easing apart from Japan

Recent rise in global supply chain pressures could augur a pickup in global inflation pressures

Underperforming German economy generating increased policy uncertainty relative to Europe and the US

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Real GDP eased 0.3% SAAR (+2.1% y/y) during the first quarter of 2025 after increasing 2.4% in Q4’24 and 3.1% in Q3’24. A 0.4% increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. It was the first decline since Q1 2022.

Foreign trade subtracted 4.83 percentage points from growth last quarter as imports surged 41.3% (13.4% y/y) ahead of tariffs, which began to come into effect in the first quarter. The rise followed a 1.9% decline in Q4’24. Exports rose 1.8% (3.0% y/y) after easing 0.2% in Q4. Inventories added 2.25 percentage points to growth after subtracting 0.84 percentage point from Q4 growth.

Real final sales to domestic purchasers grew 2.3% (2.9% y/y) in Q1 after rising 3.0% in Q4. Personal consumption expenditures rose 1.8% (3.1% y/y) following a 4.0% gain. Durable goods spending fell 3.4% (+5.3% y/y) after surging 12.4% in Q4. Motor vehicle purchases declined 11.1% (+5.5% y/y) after strengthening 19.7% in Q4. Spending on home furnishings & appliances gained 1.5% (6.1% y/y) following a 5.4% rise. Recreational goods & vehicle outlays rose 2.5% (7.0% y/y) last quarter after a 13.9% Q4 increase.

Nondurable goods outlays rose 2.7% (3.0% y/y) following 3.1% growth in Q4. Apparel spending increased 6.7% (2.5% y/y) following a 5.0% rise. Food & beverage buying gained 2.5% (2.3% y/y) after a 1.8% increase. Gasoline & fuel oil purchases increased 4.6% (3.4% y/y) after falling 2.0% in Q4.

Spending on services increased 2.4% last quarter (2.7% y/y) after a 3.0% gain. Outlays on housing & utilities increased 3.4% (1.8% y/y) after rising 1.1% in Q4. Health care expenditures rose 4.0% (4.8% y/y) following a 4.7% strengthening. Transportation outlays increased 5.3% (4.6% y/y) after a 3.7% rise while recreation spending rose 4.7% (2.8% y/y) following a 4.5% rise. Restaurant & hotel expenditures declined 2.1% (+0.5% y/y) following a 2.8% rise. Financial services expenditures rose 1.9% (2.0% y/y) after a 3.1% Q4 increase.

Business fixed investment increased 9.8% (3.6% y/y) following a 3.0% decline in Q4. Expenditures on structures rose 0.4% (-0.4% y/y) after a 2.9% increase. Expenditures on producers’ durable equipment jumped 22.5% (8.0% y/y) after falling 8.7%.  Outlays on information processing equipment soared 69.3% (18.9% y/y) following a 7.3% decline. Industrial equipment investment fell 1.4% (-0.3% y/y) after easing 0.9%. Intellectual property product spending rose 4.1% (1.8% y/y) following a 0.5% decline. 

Residential structures investment increased 1.3% (-0.1% y/y) in Q1 after a 5.5% Q4 rise.

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Government spending fell 1.5% (+2.4% y/y) after a 3.1% Q4 rise. Federal government expenditures declined 5.1% (+2.9% y/y) after rising 4.0% in Q4. National defense expenditures declined 8.0% (+4.0% y/y) after increasing 4.8% in Q4. State & local government spending rose 0.8% (2.1% y/y) following a 2.5% rise.

The GDP price index rose 3.7% (2.6% y/y) after increasing 2.3% in Q4. It was the largest increase since Q4’22. A 2.4% increase had been expected. The PCE chain price index increased 3.6% (2.5% y/y) following a 2.4% rise. The PCE price index excluding food and energy rose 3.5% (2.8% y/y) after increasing 2.6% in Q4. The business fixed investment price index rose 0.4% (1.8% y/y) after 1.5% rise. The residential price index strengthened 3.9% (3.2% y/y) after a 1.9% rise while the government price index increased 4.7% (2.8% y/y) following a 2.1% rise.

The GDP data can be found in Haver’s **USECON** and **USNA** databases. **USNA** contains virtually all of the Bureau of Economic Analysis detail in the national accounts. The Action Economics consensus estimates can be found in **AS1REPNA**.

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- Decline in GDP is first in three years.
- Foreign trade subtracts substantially ahead of tariffs.
- Domestic final demand growth weakens.
- Price index strengthens with higher core PCE prices.

U.S. GDP Unexpectedly Declines in Q1’25; Prices Strengthen

Michael J. Moran

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High-side readings on the price indexes for personal consumption expenditures in January and February caused some concern about emerging price pressure, especially with some policies of the Trump administration possibly adding to the upward force. However, March brought notable relief, with the headline price index falling slightly (-0.04%). A marked decline in energy prices was helpful (-2.7%), but core prices also were subdued, increasing less than 0.1%.  Year-over-year changes were still above the Fed’s target of 2%, but only barely so for the headline measure (2.3%). The core index backed away from the reading of 3.0% in February, but the latest reading of 2.7% was in line with observations in the past year, and still uncomfortably above target.

Consumers roused from a winter slumber in March, with nominal outlays increasing 0.7%. With inflation restrained, real outlays also posted a gain of 0.7%. Spending on durable gods stood out, with real outlays advancing 3.2%. Real outlays for both nondurable goods and services rose 0.4%, a solid pace. Signs of life were certainly welcome after an average decline of 0.1% in January and February. The March rebound left growth of 1.8% (annual rate) in the first quarter.

The brisk increase in spending in March was supported by a solid gain in personal income (0.5% in both nominal and real terms). Growth in wage income was firm at 0.5%, while proprietors’ income was robust with a gain of 1.8% (not annualized!). The farm sector led the advance in proprietors’ income, but the nonfarm sector also was strong (0.6%).

The personal income and consumption figures are available in Haver’s **USECON** database with detail in the **USNA** database. The Action Economics forecasts are in **AS1REPNA**.

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- Price pressure eases.
- Spending rebounds after two soft months.

Personal Income, Consumption, and Prices in March

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The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking home sales measure based on contract signings, from the National Association of Realtors rose 6.1% to 76.5 (-0.6% y/y) during March after rising a little-revised 2.1% in February. These changes followed a 4.6% January decline.

The rise in March sales occurred as the rate on a 30-year mortgage eased to an average 6.65% from 6.84% in February. This rate was well above a low of 2.68% averaged in December 2020.

Pending home sales were up in most regions of the country. Sales in the Midwest rose 4.9% (1.4% y/y) last month after rising 1.8% in February. Sales in the South increased 9.8% (-0.4% y/y) following a 5.8% February rise. Sales in the West improved 4.8% (-2.0% y/y) after falling 3.0% in February. Sales in the Northeast were off 0.5% (-3.0% y/y) in March after falling 0.9% in February.

The pending home sales index measures sales at the time the contract for the purchase of an existing home is signed, similar to the Census Bureau's new home sales data. In contrast, the National Association of Realtors' existing home sales data are recorded when the sale is closed, which is usually a couple of months after the sales contract has been signed. In developing the pending home sales index, the NAR found that the level of monthly sales contract activity leads the level of closed existing home sales by about two months.

The series dates back to 2001 and are available in Haver's **PREALTOR** database. Weekly mortgage interest rates from the Mortgage Bankers Association can be found in the **WEEKLY** database.

- Sales rise to highest level in four months.
- Strength is evident throughout most of country.

U.S. Pending Home Sales Surge in March

Sandy Batten

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The employment cost index (ECI) for civilian workers, arguably the most accurate measure of labor compensation in the United States, rose 0.9% q/q (3.6% y/y) in Q1, the same quarterly increase as in last year’s Q4, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The quarterly gains have fluctuated between 0.8% and 1.0% for the past six quarters. The Action Economics Forecast Survey had expected a 0.9% q/q increase and a 3.5% y/y gain.

Wages and salaries for civilian workers rose 0.8% q/q (3.5% y/y) in Q1, down from 1.0% q/q in Q4. This tied the Q3 2024 quarterly rise as the smallest increase since Q2 2021. It was also the smallest y/y increase since Q2 2021. Benefits increased by an outsized 1.2% q/q (3.9% y/y) in Q1 versus 0.8% q/q in Q4. This is the largest quarterly gain since Q2 2022. In general, employment cost gains remain above the pace observed prior to the pandemic but are slowing gradually.

Private industry workers’ compensation rose 0.8% q/q (3.4% y/y) in Q1, down from 0.9% q/q (3.6% y/y) in Q4. Wages and salaries for private industry workers increased 0.8% q/q (3.4% y/y) in Q1 versus 0.8% q/q (3.7% y/y) in Q4. The quarterly gain in Q1 tied that in Q3 2024 as the smallest increase since Q4 2020. Benefits for private industry workers jumped 1.2% q/q (3.6% y/y). the largest quarterly gain since Q2 2022. The acceleration in benefits in Q1 was primarily in service-producing industries.

Compensation in private goods-producing industries increased 1.0% q/q (3.2% y/y) in Q1, the largest quarterly gain in five quarters, versus a 0.7% q/q increase in Q4. Compensation in construction jumped 1.3% q/q, its largest quarterly increase since Q2 2022, up from a 0.6% q/q gain in Q4. Manufacturing compensation growth slowed to 0.7% q/q, its slowest quarterly advance since Q4 2020, from 0.8% q/q in Q4. Compensation in private service-producing industries increased 0.8% q/q (3.5% y/y), down slightly from a 0.9% q/q gain in Q4. Compensation in education and health services jumped 1.3% q/q, its largest quarterly gain since Q3 2023. In contrast, compensation in other services edged up 0.1% q/q in Q1, its smallest quarterly advance since before the pandemic.

The employment cost index measures the change in the cost of labor, free from the influence of employment shifts across occupations and industries. It is provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and is available in Haver’s **USECON** database. Consensus estimates from the Action Economics Forecast Survey are in Haver’s **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Compensation grew 0.9 q/q in Q1, the same pace as in Q4.
- Wage growth slowed to 0.8% q/q while benefits surged 1.2% q/q, their largest quarterly increase since Q2 2022.

Employment Cost Growth Steady in Q1 2025

Kathleen Stephansen, CBE

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The ADP National Employment Report indicated that nonfarm private sector payrolls rose 62,000 (1.4% y/y) during April after increasing 147,000 (1.4% y/y) during March, revised from 155,000. A 124,000 April rise in ADP employment had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.

Growth in median annual pay for "job stayers" eased to 4.5% y/y during April, from 4.6% y/y in March and from 4.7% y/y in the prior two months. Manufacturing sector pay grew 4.6% y/y during April, down from 4.8% y/y in March. Construction sector pay was unchanged at 4.7% y/y. Natural resource & mining sector pay grew 4.4% y/y. Financial sector pay rose 5.1% y/y, while education & health services pay rose 4.7% y/y. Leisure & hospitality pay also increased 4.7% y/y. Professional & business service sector pay increased 4.3% y/y as did trade, transportation & utilities pay. Information pay rose 4.1% y/y. Median annual pay for “job changers” rose 6.9% y/y after 6.7% y/y in March.

Small business hiring (less than 50 employees) rose 11,000 (0.6% y/y) after rising 18,000 (0.6% y/y) in March, revised down from 52,000. Employment at medium-sized firms (50-499,000 employees) rose 40,000 (1.1% y/y) after rising 43,000 (1.1% y/y). Large business hiring (500+ employees) rose 12,000 (3.4% y/y) in April, after rising 61,000 (3.6% y/y) in March, revised from 59,000.

Goods-producing employment rose 26,000 (1.3% y/y) in April, after rising 16,000 (1.3% y/y) during March, revised from 24,000. Manufacturing jobs rose 4,000 (-0.2% y/y) after rising 17,000 (-0.3% y/y) in March. The number of construction sector jobs rose 16,000 (3.4% y/y) in April, following a 2,000 (3.6% y/y) March increase, revised from 6,000. Natural resources & mining jobs rose 6,000 (2.8% y/y) in April after falling 3,000 (+1.9% y/y) in March.

The number of service-producing jobs rose 34,000 (1.4% y/y) during April, following a rise of 131,000 (1.4% y/y) in March. Professional & business services employment fell 2,000 (0.6% y/y) after rising 46,000 (0.7% y/y) in the prior month, revised from 57,000. Employment in the financial industry rose 20,000 (2.1% y/y) in April, after rising 38,000 (2.0% y/y) in March. Leisure and hospitality employment increased 27,000 (3.0% y/y), following a 23,000 (2.9% y/y) March increase, revised from 17,000. The number of education & health care jobs fell 23,000 (1.6% y/y) in April, following a 15,000 (1.8% y/y) rise in March, revised from 12,000. Information sector employment fell 8,000 (-0.1% y/y) after a rise of 3,000 (0.2% y/y) in March. The number of jobs in trade, transportation & utilities rose 21,000 (0.4% y/y) in April, after falling 4,000 (+0.4% y/y) in March, revised from a 6,000 fall. Employment in “other” services rose fell 1,000 (+3.2% y/y) following a 10,000 (3.4% y/y) rise in March, revised from 11,000.

By region, employment in the Northeast increased 10,000 (1.9% y/y) in April, following an increase of 95,000 (2.0% y/y) in March, revised from 89,000. Employment in the Midwest rose 42,000 (1.5% y/y) after a gain of 84,000 (1.4% y/y) in March, revised from 81,000. In the South, employment rose 3,000 (1.3% y/y) during April, after rising 10,000 (1.4% y/y) in March, revised from 27,000. In the West, employment rose 9,000 (0.6% y/y) after declining 43,000 (+0.6% y/y), revised from a 41,000 decline in March.

The ADP National Employment Report and Pay Insights data can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. Historical figures date back to January 2010 for private employment. Pay data date back to October 2020. The expectation figure is available in Haver's **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Employment increase is modest in both services & factory sectors.
- Wage growth for “job stayers” moderates.
- Small and medium-sized business employment slows.

Economy in Brief: February 2007

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Mortgage Applications Off Sharply

Gasoline Prices Firmed Further

CPI Up More Than Expected: Tobacco & Medical Care Strong

French Economic Growth vis-ŕ-vis Germany's

Chicago Fed Nat'l Activity Index Quite Negative

Chicago Fed Nat'l Activity Index Quite Negative

German Labor Demanding Big Increase in Wages

PPI Eases with Lower Energy; Core Rate Steady