Tom Moeller

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070126c.jpg" width="353">
Mild weather likely was behind a 4.8% gain in new home sales to 1.120M last month after an upwardly revised 7.4% jump during November. The latest gain by far outpaced Consensus estimates for 1.05M sales (see Haver&#39;s AS1REPNA database).
Despite the recent gains, new home sales last year fell 16.4%, the steepest decline since 1990, but for the whole year were at the fourth highest level on record.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070126d.jpg" width="353">
In the Northeast sales rose 27.3% (18.3% y/y) after the 65.0% November surge but for the year were down 21.0%. In the Midwest sales rose 26.6% (-2.4% y/y) but for the whole year fell 19.1% and out West sales slipped 4.4% (-27.1% y/y) and fell 25.3% for the year. Sales in the South ticked up 0.3% (-8.9% y/y) during December and for the year were off 10.0%.
The median new home price rose 1.2% (-1.5%) to $235,000. The 3.0% gain for the full year was the weakest since 1995. Downward revisions were sharp to recent price figures
The inventory of unsold home fell for the fifth straight month. 

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">US New Homes</th>
<th scope="col">December</th>
<th scope="col">November</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Total Sales (SAAR, 000s)</td>
<td>1,120</td>
<td>1,069</td>
<td>-11.0%</td>
<td>1,070</td>
<td>1,280</td>
<td>1,201</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Median Price (NSA, $)</td>
<td>235,000</td>
<td>232,200</td>
<td>-1.5%</td>
<td>241,125</td>
<td>234,208</td>
<td>217,817</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
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Mild weather likely was behind a 4.8% gain in new home sales to 1.120M last month after an upwardly revised 7.4% jump during November. The latest gain by far outpaced Consensus estimates for 1.05M sales (see Haver's AS1REPNA [...]

New Home Sales Up Much More Than Expected

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070126b.jpg" width="353">
The 3.1% surge in new orders for durable goods about matched Consensus expectations and followed an upwardly revised 2.2% increase in November. For the year durable goods orders rose 7.1%, down just moderately from the 9.0% gain during 2005 but much of the strength reflected gains at the end of 2005 and early 2006.
During the last ten years there has been a 69% correlation between the y/y change in durable goods orders and the change in output of durable goods..
Another strong 24.8% (-8.6% y/y) gain in total aircraft &amp; parts orders boosted durable goods bookings last month after a 13.2% rise during November. Orders for motor vehicles &amp; parts even turned in a sharp 6.8% (0.0% y/y) gain. Yet less transportation altogether, orders still rose 2.3% and made up for most of the declines during the prior two months.
Orders for nondefense capital goods less aircraft rose 2.4% reflecting a 5.0% (6.1% y/y) surge in machinery orders. During the last ten years there has been an 86% correlation between the y/y change in capital goods orders less aircraft and the y/y change in business fixed investment in equipment &amp; software from the GDP accounts.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070126a.jpg" width="353">
Orders for computers &amp; electronic products rose 1.0% (11.4% y/y) after an 8.0% November spike. Primary metals orders also jumped 4.5% (9.1% y/y) making up nearly all of the declines during the prior tree months.
Shipments of durable goods gained 0.8% (0.5% y/y) after flat-to-down movement over the prior several months. Less the transportation sector, however, shipments fell 0.1% (+2.1% y/y) for the fourth consecutive monthly decline. During the last ten years there has been an 82% correlation between the y/y change in durable goods shipments and the change in industrial production of durable goods.
Durable inventories again rose moderately, by 0.4% (8.4% y/y) after a 0.3% November rise. Less the transportation sector, however, inventories doubled the modest 0.3% November gain with a 0.6% (9.3% y/y) increase. The inventory to shipments ratio outside of transportation, as a result, rose further to the highest level since early 2004.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@ED/@ED01/@ED0101/@ED0101.HTM">NAICS Classification</a></th>
<th scope="col">December</th>
<th scope="col">November</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Durable Goods Orders</td>
<td>3.1%</td>
<td>2.2%</td>
<td>2.6%</td>
<td>7.1%</td>
<td>9.0%</td>
<td>6.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Excluding Transportation</td>
<td>2.3%</td>
<td>-1.0%</td>
<td>5.1%</td>
<td>8.1%</td>
<td>9.4%</td>
<td>7.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Nondefense Capital Goods</td>
<td>9.0%</td>
<td>-0.3%</td>
<td>0.9%</td>
<td>9.7%</td>
<td>21.4%</td>
<td>5.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;Excluding Aircraft</td>
<td>2.4%</td>
<td>-1.0%</td>
<td>6.7%</td>
<td>9.2%</td>
<td>12.3%</td>
<td>2.8%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
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The 3.1% surge in new orders for durable goods about matched Consensus expectations and followed an upwardly revised 2.2% increase in November. For the year durable goods orders rose 7.1%, down just moderately from the 9.0% gain [...]

U.S. Durable Goods Orders Firmed, Inventories Up

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070126c.jpg" width="353">
Mild weather likely was behind a 4.8% gain in new home sales to 1.120M last month after an upwardly revised 7.4% jump during November. The latest gain by far outpaced Consensus estimates for 1.05M sales (see Haver&#39;s AS1REPNA database).
Despite the recent gains, new home sales last year fell 16.4%, the steepest decline since 1990, but for the whole year were at the fourth highest level on record.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070126d.jpg" width="353">
In the Northeast sales rose 27.3% (18.3% y/y) after the 65.0% November surge but for the year were down 21.0%. In the Midwest sales rose 26.6% (-2.4% y/y) but for the whole year fell 19.1% and out West sales slipped 4.4% (-27.1% y/y) and fell 25.3% for the year. Sales in the South ticked up 0.3% (-8.9% y/y) during December and for the year were off 10.0%.
The median new home price rose 1.2% (-1.5%) to $235,000. The 3.0% gain for the full year was the weakest since 1995. Downward revisions were sharp to recent price figures
The inventory of unsold home fell for the fifth straight month. 

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">US New Homes</th>
<th scope="col">December</th>
<th scope="col">November</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Total Sales (SAAR, 000s)</td>
<td>1,120</td>
<td>1,069</td>
<td>-11.0%</td>
<td>1,070</td>
<td>1,280</td>
<td>1,201</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Median Price (NSA, $)</td>
<td>235,000</td>
<td>232,200</td>
<td>-1.5%</td>
<td>241,125</td>
<td>234,208</td>
<td>217,817</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
U.S. Durable Goods Orders Firmed, Inventories Up 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> January 26, 2007


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070126b.jpg" width="353">
The 3.1% surge in new orders for durable goods about matched Consensus expectations and followed an upwardly revised 2.2% increase in November. For the year durable goods orders rose 7.1%, down just moderately from the 9.0% gain during 2005 but much of the strength reflected gains at the end of 2005 and early 2006.
During the last ten years there has been a 69% correlation between the y/y change in durable goods orders and the change in output of durable goods..
Another strong 24.8% (-8.6% y/y) gain in total aircraft &amp; parts orders boosted durable goods bookings last month after a 13.2% rise during November. Orders for motor vehicles &amp; parts even turned in a sharp 6.8% (0.0% y/y) gain. Yet less transportation altogether, orders still rose 2.3% and made up for most of the declines during the prior two months.
Orders for nondefense capital goods less aircraft rose 2.4% reflecting a 5.0% (6.1% y/y) surge in machinery orders. During the last ten years there has been an 86% correlation between the y/y change in capital goods orders less aircraft and the y/y change in business fixed investment in equipment &amp; software from the GDP accounts.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070126a.jpg" width="353">
Orders for computers &amp; electronic products rose 1.0% (11.4% y/y) after an 8.0% November spike. Primary metals orders also jumped 4.5% (9.1% y/y) making up nearly all of the declines during the prior tree months.
Shipments of durable goods gained 0.8% (0.5% y/y) after flat-to-down movement over the prior several months. Less the transportation sector, however, shipments fell 0.1% (+2.1% y/y) for the fourth consecutive monthly decline. During the last ten years there has been an 82% correlation between the y/y change in durable goods shipments and the change in industrial production of durable goods.
Durable inventories again rose moderately, by 0.4% (8.4% y/y) after a 0.3% November rise. Less the transportation sector, however, inventories doubled the modest 0.3% November gain with a 0.6% (9.3% y/y) increase. The inventory to shipments ratio outside of transportation, as a result, rose further to the highest level since early 2004.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@ED/@ED01/@ED0101/@ED0101.HTM">NAICS Classification</a></th>
<th scope="col">December</th>
<th scope="col">November</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Durable Goods Orders</td>
<td>3.1%</td>
<td>2.2%</td>
<td>2.6%</td>
<td>7.1%</td>
<td>9.0%</td>
<td>6.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Excluding Transportation</td>
<td>2.3%</td>
<td>-1.0%</td>
<td>5.1%</td>
<td>8.1%</td>
<td>9.4%</td>
<td>7.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Nondefense Capital Goods</td>
<td>9.0%</td>
<td>-0.3%</td>
<td>0.9%</td>
<td>9.7%</td>
<td>21.4%</td>
<td>5.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;Excluding Aircraft</td>
<td>2.4%</td>
<td>-1.0%</td>
<td>6.7%</td>
<td>9.2%</td>
<td>12.3%</td>
<td>2.8%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Employment in Spain Surpasses 20 Million in Q4; Foreign Workers Increase Share of Jobs 
by <a href="/comment/Stone.html">Carol Stone</a> January 26, 2007


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070126e.jpg" width="353">
The number of employed workers in Spain passed 20 million in Q4, a record and a new milestone. The Spanish labor market continues to impress with its vigor. Growth rates are moderating a bit, but conditions remain strong overall. The unemployment rate was 8.3%, seasonally adjusted, the same as in Q3 and the lowest since Q2 1979, more than 27 years ago. Labor force participation increased to 58.6%, also a record for this data, which began just over 30 years ago; this rate has gone up about a percentage point a year for the last five years.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070126f.jpg" width="353">
We wrote about Spain&#39;s unique labor market last October, on the release of Q3 data. We noted then that the &quot;industry&quot; sector was holding up in Spain, even as it was declining elsewhere in Europe. In Q4, Spanish industry employment firmed, so it now has 31,000 more jobs, 0.9%, than in Q4 2005. European-wide data are not yet available for Q4, but through Q3, they were running 1.0% below a year ago. In other Spanish activity, the service sector had slower growth in Q4, &quot;just&quot; 4.3% year-on-year; the year as a whole was up 5.1%, the third year in the last four with more than 5% growth in service sector jobs. The real star is construction, as is easily evident in the second graph. Job growth there has picked up this year, with 8.3% in Q4 over the year earlier. For all of 2006, construction jobs increased 7.9%, the fastest in five years.<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070126g.jpg" width="353">
Another striking feature of the Spanish labor market is the participation of foreign workers. It may be that other countries are experiencing this phenomenon, but we have not been aware of it. Foreigners in Spain who are of working age (over 16) constitute 10.2% of that age segment of the total population, but they are 13% of the employees. While they have a higher unemployment rate than the population as a whole, 12.0% versus the total 8.3%, they are far more active in the labor market, with a participation rate of 77.6% compared to the overall 58.3%. Clearly immigrants come to Spain to look for work and persist in trying to get it.
Seasonal adjustment of Spain&#39;s employment and unemployment series is done by Haver Analytics. These series are in Haver&#39;s &quot;G10&quot; database. Other data, especially that on foreign workers, is carried in the SPAIN database, the &quot;country-sourced&quot; database in which data are presented in the style in which they are published by the national statistical sources.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">SPAIN</th>
<th scope="col">Q4 2006</th>
<th scope="col">Q3 2006</th>
<th scope="col">Q4 2005</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Employment (Millions, SA)</td>
<td>20.01</td>
<td>19.81</td>
<td>19.32</td>
<td>19.75</td>
<td>18.97</td>
<td>17.97</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Industry</td>
<td>3.33</td>
<td>3.26</td>
<td>3.30</td>
<td>3.29</td>
<td>3.28</td>
<td>3.21</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Construction</td>
<td>2.64</td>
<td>2.58</td>
<td>2.44</td>
<td>2.54</td>
<td>2.36</td>
<td>2.25</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Services</td>
<td>13.13</td>
<td>13.02</td>
<td>12.59</td>
<td>12.97</td>
<td>12.34</td>
<td>11.52</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Unemployment Rate (%, SA)</td>
<td>8.3</td>
<td>8.3</td>
<td>8.7</td>
<td>8.5</td>
<td>9.1</td>
<td>11.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Participation Rate (%, SA)</td>
<td>58.6</td>
<td>58.4</td>
<td>57.7</td>
<td>58.3</td>
<td>57.3</td>
<td>56.3</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Foreign % of Working Age Population (NSA)</td>
<td>10.2</td>
<td>9.9</td>
<td>9.0</td>
<td>9.8</td>
<td>8.5</td>
<td>--</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Foreign % of Employment (NSA)</td>
<td>13.0</td>
<td>12.7</td>
<td>11.3</td>
<td>12.5</td>
<td>10.9</td>
<td>--</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
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Carol Stone, CBE

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070125g.jpg" width="353">
China&#39;s economy continued to expand rapidly in Q4, according to GDP data reported today (Jan 25). The Q4 GDP was 10.4% above that for Q4 2005, making the whole year 10.7% above 2005. This was the strongest yearly performance since 1995.
China, of course, has become the world&#39;s manufacturing center, and it is that industrial sector that drove the further acceleration in the annual outcome. This is called secondary industry by the Chinese national accounts compilers; the product of that segment expanded by 12.5% in the year, about the same as 12.7% in 2003, and otherwise the largest growth since 1995. The secondary industries are manufacturing, mining, utilities and construction. Primary industries, which include agriculture, forestry and fishing, expanded 5.0%, and tertiary industries, basically the service sector, grew 10.3%, about in line with the last seven or eight years&#39; gains. <img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070125h.jpg" width="353">
While these data are &quot;provisional&quot; according to China&#39;s National Bureau of Statistics, they do contain a hint of slowing in the key secondary industry sector. Its gross product had been up as much as 13.2% in Q2, year-to-date over the comparable year-ago period. So there has apparently been moderate easing through the second half of the year to the cumulative total of 12.5%. This is also apparent in monthly data on industrial production. Year-on-year growth rates in the autumn months had decreased to 14-3/4% from 18% in the spring. This of course still shows dramatic strength -- which indeed may elicit interest rate increases from the Central Bank -- but the less ebullient performance does suggest that there may be some capacity limits on Chinese activity. We could guess they are at least partially energy-related.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/EMERGEPR/@P1/@P12/@P12.HTM">CHINA</a></th>
<th scope="col">Q4 2006</th>
<th scope="col">Q3 2006</th>
<th scope="col">Q2 2006</th>
<th scope="col">Year Ago</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Real GDP: Yr/Yr % Change</td>
<td>10.4</td>
<td>10.6</td>
<td>11.5</td>
<td>9.9</td>
<td>10.7</td>
<td>9.9</td>
<td>9.5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Year-to-Date % Change</td>
<td>10.7</td>
<td>10.7</td>
<td>10.9</td>
<td>10.4</td>
<td>10.7</td>
<td>10.4</td>
<td>10.1</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Primary Industries</td>
<td>5.0</td>
<td>4.9</td>
<td>5.1</td>
<td>5.2</td>
<td>5.0</td>
<td>5.2</td>
<td>6.3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Secondary Industries</td>
<td>12.5</td>
<td>13.0</td>
<td>13.2</td>
<td>11.7</td>
<td>12.5</td>
<td>11.7</td>
<td>11.1</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Tertiary Industries</td>
<td>10.3</td>
<td>9.5</td>
<td>9.4</td>
<td>10.5</td>
<td>10.3</td>
<td>10.5</td>
<td>10.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Nominal GDP: Bil.Yuan</td>
<td>5,659.6</td>
<td>5,129.3</td>
<td>5,024.1</td>
<td>4,820.0</td>
<td>20,834.0</td>
<td>18,232.1</td>
<td>15,987.0</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Bil.US$</td>
<td>719.9</td>
<td>644.0</td>
<td>627.2</td>
<td>596.3</td>
<td>2,614.7</td>
<td>2,226.1</td>
<td>1,931.6</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
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China's economy continued to expand rapidly in Q4, according to GDP data reported today (Jan 25). The Q4 GDP was 10.4% above that for Q4 2005, making the whole year 10.7% above 2005. This was the strongest yearly performance since [...]

China GDP Grows 10.7% in 2006, But Manufacturing Gains Appear To Moderate Late in the Year

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070125e.jpg" width="353">
The Conference Board reported that its Index of Help-Wanted Advertising in December popped upwards to 33, its highest level since June.
During the last ten years there has been a 57% correlation between the level of help-wanted advertising and the three month change in non-farm payrolls.
The proportion of labor markets with rising want-ad volume also surged to 77%, the highest level since July of 2005.
The Conference Board surveys help-wanted advertising volume in 51 major newspapers across the country every month.
The latest help wanted report from the Conference Board is available <a href="http://www.conference-board.org/economics/helpwanted.cfm">here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/CBDB/@C3/@C3.HTM">Conference Board</a></th>
<th scope="col">December</th>
<th scope="col">November</th>
<th scope="col">December &#39;05</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">National Help Wanted Index</td>
<td>33</td>
<td>29</td>
<td>38</td>
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The Conference Board reported that its Index of Help-Wanted Advertising in December popped upwards to 33, its highest level since June. During the last ten years there has been a 57% correlation between the level of help-wanted [...]

Help-Wanted Advertising Finally Popped

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070125a.jpg" width="353">
Initial unemployment insurance claims jumped 36,000 to 325,000 last week and reversed all of the declines over the prior two weeks. Consensus expectations had been for a lesser increase to 310,000.
During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 77% correlation between the level of initial claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payroll employment.
The four-week moving average of initial claims increased modestly to 309,250 (7.1% y/y).<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070125b.jpg" width="353">
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance fell 39,000 and reversed part of the prior week&#39;s 113,000 surge.
The insured rate of unemployment remained at 1.9%, about where it&#39;s been since February.
The Budget &amp; Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2007 to 2016 from the Congressional Budget Office can be found<a href="http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/70xx/doc7027/01-26-BudgetOutlook.pdf"> here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/WEEKLY/@W5/@W507/@W507.HTM">Unemployment Insurance (000s)</a></th>
<th scope="col">01/20/07</th>
<th scope="col">01/13/07</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Initial Claims</td>
<td>325</td>
<td>289</td>
<td>15.7%</td>
<td>313</td>
<td>332</td>
<td>343</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;Continuing Claims</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>2,484</td>
<td>-3.2%</td>
<td>2,459</td>
<td>2,662</td>
<td>2,924</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
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Initial unemployment insurance claims jumped 36,000 to 325,000 last week and reversed all of the declines over the prior two weeks. Consensus expectations had been for a lesser increase to 310,000. During the last ten years there has [...]

Initial Jobless Insurance Claims Jumped

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070124d.jpg" width="353">
The total number of mortgage applications fell a sharp 8.4% last week, after a slight decline the prior week according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.
Purchase applications slumped 8.4% after the prior period&#39;s sharp 7.0% fall. Nevertheless, as a result of a 16.2% surge at the beginning of January, the average level of purchase applications this month is up 3.2% from December which rose 4.7%.
During the last ten years there has been a 58% correlation between the y/y change in purchase applications and the change in new plus existing single family home sales.
Applications to refinance also fell a sharp 9.6%. Applications to refinance in January are 2.0% above the December average which was unchanged from November.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070124c.jpg" width="353">
The effective interest rate on a conventional 30-year mortgage rose w/w to 6.41% to the highest level this year and compared to the December average of 6.28%. The peak for 30 year financing was 7.08% late in June. Rates for 15-year financing also rose to 6.19%. Interest rates on 15 and 30 year mortgages are closely correlated (&gt;90%) with the rate on 10 year Treasury securities.
During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 79% correlation between the level of applications for purchase and the effective interest rate on a 30-year mortgage.
The Mortgage Bankers Association surveys between 20 to 35 of the top lenders in the U.S. housing industry to derive its refinance, purchase and market indexes. The weekly survey covers roughly 50% of all U.S. residential mortgage applications processed each week by mortgage banks, commercial banks and thrifts. Visit the Mortgage Bankers Association site <a href="http://www.mbaa.org">here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/SURVEYW/@S5/@S5.HTM">MBA Mortgage Applications (3/16/90=100)</a></th>
<th scope="col">01/19/07</th>
<th scope="col">01/12/07</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Total Market Index</td>
<td>611.3</td>
<td>667.2</td>
<td>-7.4%</td>
<td>584.2</td>
<td>708.6</td>
<td>735.1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Purchase</td>
<td>402.7</td>
<td>439.7</td>
<td>-15.0%</td>
<td>406.9</td>
<td>470.9</td>
<td>454.5</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Refinancing</td>
<td>1,848.8</td>
<td>2,045.8</td>
<td>4.2%</td>
<td>1,634.0</td>
<td>2,092.3</td>
<td>2,366.8</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
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The total number of mortgage applications fell a sharp 8.4% last week, after a slight decline the prior week according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. Purchase applications slumped 8.4% after the prior period's sharp 7.0% fall. [...]

Mortgage Applications Down Sharply

Louise Curley

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070123f.jpg" width="353">
In the current survey, the British industrialists surveyed quarterly by the Confederation of Business Industries (CBI) were less pessimistic regarding the general business situation than they had been last October. They were, however, more pessimistic regarding export prospects for the next twelve months. This overall impression is due in part to the volume of new orders. The percent balance on the volume of total new orders over the past three month rose from -5% to 10% and expectations for the next 3 months are for an even higher balance of 15%. The respondents to the survey see more improvement in domestic orders than in export orders, both for the past three months and for the next three month as can be seen in the table below. Part of the reason for the dampening of export expectations is the strengthening of the pound against the dollar and the euro as can be seen in the first chart.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070123d.jpg" width="353">
One of the most notable details of the current survey was the increase in the balance between those raising prices over the past three months and those lowering them. The percent balance was 15%, an increase of 12 percentage points from the 3% of the October survey and the highest since July, 1995. At the same time, the balance between those experiencing higher costs and those experiencing lower costs was 18%, down from 24% in the October survey.<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070123e.jpg" width="353">
As a result of these trends, the excess of costs over prices was the smallest recorded over the past 10 years as can be seen in the second chart. For the next three months, 19% more respondents expect prices to rise than to fall and 15% more expect costs to rise than to fall. This is the first time since the first quarter of 2004, that the percent balance of those expecting price increases in the three months ahead will exceed the percent balance of those expecting cost increases, as can be seen in the third chart.
These trends auger well for profits, but they raise concerns for inflation and the possibility of further interest rate rises. The December inflation rate of 3.0% prompted the unexpected rise in the Bank of England&#39;s core interest rate from 5.00% to 5.25% on January 11, 2007.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">CBI INDUSTRIAL SURVEY (% Balances)&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">Q1 07</th>
<th scope="col">Q4 06</th>
<th scope="col">Q1 06</th>
<th scope="col">Q/Q dif</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y dif</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Optimism General Business Situation</td>
<td>-7</td>
<td>-10</td>
<td>-14</td>
<td>3</td>
<td>7</td>
<td>-8</td>
<td>-19</td>
<td>7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Optimism Export Situation Next 12 mos</td>
<td>-2</td>
<td>1</td>
<td>-5</td>
<td>-3</td>
<td>3</td>
<td>1</td>
<td>-6</td>
<td>7</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Prices past 3 mos&nbsp;</td>
<td>15</td>
<td>3</td>
<td>-4</td>
<td>12</td>
<td>19</td>
<td>1</td>
<td>2</td>
<td>-4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Costs&nbsp; past 3 mos</td>
<td>18</td>
<td>24</td>
<td>23</td>
<td>-6</td>
<td>-5</td>
<td>20</td>
<td>22</td>
<td>9</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Prices&nbsp; next 3 mos</td>
<td>19</td>
<td>12</td>
<td>12</td>
<td>7</td>
<td>7</td>
<td>10</td>
<td>3</td>
<td>3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol"> Costs&nbsp; next 3 mos </td>
<td>15</td>
<td>18</td>
<td>21</td>
<td>-3</td>
<td>-6</td>
<td>15</td>
<td>14</td>
<td>7</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Total Orders&nbsp; past 3 mos</td>
<td>10</td>
<td>-5</td>
<td>-8</td>
<td>15</td>
<td>18</td>
<td>-2</td>
<td>-11</td>
<td>9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Total Orders next 3 mos</td>
<td>15</td>
<td>3</td>
<td>-2</td>
<td>12</td>
<td>17</td>
<td>4</td>
<td>1</td>
<td>8</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Export orders past 3 mos&nbsp;</td>
<td>2</td>
<td>-1</td>
<td>-5</td>
<td>3</td>
<td>7</td>
<td>-1</td>
<td>-7</td>
<td>1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Export orders next 3 mos</td>
<td>6</td>
<td>3</td>
<td>-2</td>
<td>3</td>
<td>8</td>
<td>4</td>
<td>-2</td>
<td>4</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Domestic orders past 3 mos&nbsp;</td>
<td>7</td>
<td>-11</td>
<td>-15</td>
<td>18</td>
<td>22</td>
<td>-8</td>
<td>-15</td>
<td>5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Domestic orders next 3 mos&nbsp;</td>
<td>8</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>-9</td>
<td>8</td>
<td>17</td>
<td>1</td>
<td>-2</td>
<td>7</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

In the current survey, the British industrialists surveyed quarterly by the Confederation of Business Industries (CBI) were less pessimistic regarding the general business situation than they had been last October. They were, however, [...]

UK CBI Industrial Survey: Lower Exports and Price Rises Ahead

USD/EUR exchange rate uncoupling from interest rate differential

Widespread downgrading of 2025 GDP outlook

Trade and fiscal policy uncertainty has exploded with the new administration

Much lower US electricity costs gives it a competitive advantage

Wage growth slowing in the US and Euro area; elevated and sticky in the UK

Stagflation-lite: Blue Chip forecasts below-trend growth and elevated inflation

US policy gyrations boosting policy uncertainty worldwide

Expected tariff hikes have boosted inflation expectations

US and Japan ended 2024 on solid ground in contrast to Europe

US economy expected to outperform other major economies in 2025

Only modest evidence of AI-related surge in US productivity growth

Previous Trump tariffs fading. A boost from new tariffs ahead?

Heavy US manufacturing states underperforming while Sun Belt states outperforming

Rising long-term yields a global phenomenon

US financial market concerns shifting from growth to inflation

Economic activity is picking up in the US but remains lackluster abroad

Policy uncertainty has surged since the US national elections.

Recent turnaround in US economic surprises leading to increases in rate-cut expectations

The outlook has brightened in the US, while it has dimmed for other major economies

Headline US PCE inflation elevated by sticky services prices

US and global equity prices have recently diverged

US leading global upturn in economic surprises

Blue Chip forecasters look for further significant monetary easing apart from Japan

Recent rise in global supply chain pressures could augur a pickup in global inflation pressures

Underperforming German economy generating increased policy uncertainty relative to Europe and the US

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Real GDP eased 0.3% SAAR (+2.1% y/y) during the first quarter of 2025 after increasing 2.4% in Q4’24 and 3.1% in Q3’24. A 0.4% increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. It was the first decline since Q1 2022.

Foreign trade subtracted 4.83 percentage points from growth last quarter as imports surged 41.3% (13.4% y/y) ahead of tariffs, which began to come into effect in the first quarter. The rise followed a 1.9% decline in Q4’24. Exports rose 1.8% (3.0% y/y) after easing 0.2% in Q4. Inventories added 2.25 percentage points to growth after subtracting 0.84 percentage point from Q4 growth.

Real final sales to domestic purchasers grew 2.3% (2.9% y/y) in Q1 after rising 3.0% in Q4. Personal consumption expenditures rose 1.8% (3.1% y/y) following a 4.0% gain. Durable goods spending fell 3.4% (+5.3% y/y) after surging 12.4% in Q4. Motor vehicle purchases declined 11.1% (+5.5% y/y) after strengthening 19.7% in Q4. Spending on home furnishings & appliances gained 1.5% (6.1% y/y) following a 5.4% rise. Recreational goods & vehicle outlays rose 2.5% (7.0% y/y) last quarter after a 13.9% Q4 increase.

Nondurable goods outlays rose 2.7% (3.0% y/y) following 3.1% growth in Q4. Apparel spending increased 6.7% (2.5% y/y) following a 5.0% rise. Food & beverage buying gained 2.5% (2.3% y/y) after a 1.8% increase. Gasoline & fuel oil purchases increased 4.6% (3.4% y/y) after falling 2.0% in Q4.

Spending on services increased 2.4% last quarter (2.7% y/y) after a 3.0% gain. Outlays on housing & utilities increased 3.4% (1.8% y/y) after rising 1.1% in Q4. Health care expenditures rose 4.0% (4.8% y/y) following a 4.7% strengthening. Transportation outlays increased 5.3% (4.6% y/y) after a 3.7% rise while recreation spending rose 4.7% (2.8% y/y) following a 4.5% rise. Restaurant & hotel expenditures declined 2.1% (+0.5% y/y) following a 2.8% rise. Financial services expenditures rose 1.9% (2.0% y/y) after a 3.1% Q4 increase.

Business fixed investment increased 9.8% (3.6% y/y) following a 3.0% decline in Q4. Expenditures on structures rose 0.4% (-0.4% y/y) after a 2.9% increase. Expenditures on producers’ durable equipment jumped 22.5% (8.0% y/y) after falling 8.7%.  Outlays on information processing equipment soared 69.3% (18.9% y/y) following a 7.3% decline. Industrial equipment investment fell 1.4% (-0.3% y/y) after easing 0.9%. Intellectual property product spending rose 4.1% (1.8% y/y) following a 0.5% decline. 

Residential structures investment increased 1.3% (-0.1% y/y) in Q1 after a 5.5% Q4 rise.

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Government spending fell 1.5% (+2.4% y/y) after a 3.1% Q4 rise. Federal government expenditures declined 5.1% (+2.9% y/y) after rising 4.0% in Q4. National defense expenditures declined 8.0% (+4.0% y/y) after increasing 4.8% in Q4. State & local government spending rose 0.8% (2.1% y/y) following a 2.5% rise.

The GDP price index rose 3.7% (2.6% y/y) after increasing 2.3% in Q4. It was the largest increase since Q4’22. A 2.4% increase had been expected. The PCE chain price index increased 3.6% (2.5% y/y) following a 2.4% rise. The PCE price index excluding food and energy rose 3.5% (2.8% y/y) after increasing 2.6% in Q4. The business fixed investment price index rose 0.4% (1.8% y/y) after 1.5% rise. The residential price index strengthened 3.9% (3.2% y/y) after a 1.9% rise while the government price index increased 4.7% (2.8% y/y) following a 2.1% rise.

The GDP data can be found in Haver’s **USECON** and **USNA** databases. **USNA** contains virtually all of the Bureau of Economic Analysis detail in the national accounts. The Action Economics consensus estimates can be found in **AS1REPNA**.

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- Decline in GDP is first in three years.
- Foreign trade subtracts substantially ahead of tariffs.
- Domestic final demand growth weakens.
- Price index strengthens with higher core PCE prices.

U.S. GDP Unexpectedly Declines in Q1’25; Prices Strengthen

Michael J. Moran

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250430B.jpg

High-side readings on the price indexes for personal consumption expenditures in January and February caused some concern about emerging price pressure, especially with some policies of the Trump administration possibly adding to the upward force. However, March brought notable relief, with the headline price index falling slightly (-0.04%). A marked decline in energy prices was helpful (-2.7%), but core prices also were subdued, increasing less than 0.1%.  Year-over-year changes were still above the Fed’s target of 2%, but only barely so for the headline measure (2.3%). The core index backed away from the reading of 3.0% in February, but the latest reading of 2.7% was in line with observations in the past year, and still uncomfortably above target.

Consumers roused from a winter slumber in March, with nominal outlays increasing 0.7%. With inflation restrained, real outlays also posted a gain of 0.7%. Spending on durable gods stood out, with real outlays advancing 3.2%. Real outlays for both nondurable goods and services rose 0.4%, a solid pace. Signs of life were certainly welcome after an average decline of 0.1% in January and February. The March rebound left growth of 1.8% (annual rate) in the first quarter.

The brisk increase in spending in March was supported by a solid gain in personal income (0.5% in both nominal and real terms). Growth in wage income was firm at 0.5%, while proprietors’ income was robust with a gain of 1.8% (not annualized!). The farm sector led the advance in proprietors’ income, but the nonfarm sector also was strong (0.6%).

The personal income and consumption figures are available in Haver’s **USECON** database with detail in the **USNA** database. The Action Economics forecasts are in **AS1REPNA**.

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- Price pressure eases.
- Spending rebounds after two soft months.

Personal Income, Consumption, and Prices in March

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The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking home sales measure based on contract signings, from the National Association of Realtors rose 6.1% to 76.5 (-0.6% y/y) during March after rising a little-revised 2.1% in February. These changes followed a 4.6% January decline.

The rise in March sales occurred as the rate on a 30-year mortgage eased to an average 6.65% from 6.84% in February. This rate was well above a low of 2.68% averaged in December 2020.

Pending home sales were up in most regions of the country. Sales in the Midwest rose 4.9% (1.4% y/y) last month after rising 1.8% in February. Sales in the South increased 9.8% (-0.4% y/y) following a 5.8% February rise. Sales in the West improved 4.8% (-2.0% y/y) after falling 3.0% in February. Sales in the Northeast were off 0.5% (-3.0% y/y) in March after falling 0.9% in February.

The pending home sales index measures sales at the time the contract for the purchase of an existing home is signed, similar to the Census Bureau's new home sales data. In contrast, the National Association of Realtors' existing home sales data are recorded when the sale is closed, which is usually a couple of months after the sales contract has been signed. In developing the pending home sales index, the NAR found that the level of monthly sales contract activity leads the level of closed existing home sales by about two months.

The series dates back to 2001 and are available in Haver's **PREALTOR** database. Weekly mortgage interest rates from the Mortgage Bankers Association can be found in the **WEEKLY** database.

- Sales rise to highest level in four months.
- Strength is evident throughout most of country.

U.S. Pending Home Sales Surge in March

Sandy Batten

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The employment cost index (ECI) for civilian workers, arguably the most accurate measure of labor compensation in the United States, rose 0.9% q/q (3.6% y/y) in Q1, the same quarterly increase as in last year’s Q4, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The quarterly gains have fluctuated between 0.8% and 1.0% for the past six quarters. The Action Economics Forecast Survey had expected a 0.9% q/q increase and a 3.5% y/y gain.

Wages and salaries for civilian workers rose 0.8% q/q (3.5% y/y) in Q1, down from 1.0% q/q in Q4. This tied the Q3 2024 quarterly rise as the smallest increase since Q2 2021. It was also the smallest y/y increase since Q2 2021. Benefits increased by an outsized 1.2% q/q (3.9% y/y) in Q1 versus 0.8% q/q in Q4. This is the largest quarterly gain since Q2 2022. In general, employment cost gains remain above the pace observed prior to the pandemic but are slowing gradually.

Private industry workers’ compensation rose 0.8% q/q (3.4% y/y) in Q1, down from 0.9% q/q (3.6% y/y) in Q4. Wages and salaries for private industry workers increased 0.8% q/q (3.4% y/y) in Q1 versus 0.8% q/q (3.7% y/y) in Q4. The quarterly gain in Q1 tied that in Q3 2024 as the smallest increase since Q4 2020. Benefits for private industry workers jumped 1.2% q/q (3.6% y/y). the largest quarterly gain since Q2 2022. The acceleration in benefits in Q1 was primarily in service-producing industries.

Compensation in private goods-producing industries increased 1.0% q/q (3.2% y/y) in Q1, the largest quarterly gain in five quarters, versus a 0.7% q/q increase in Q4. Compensation in construction jumped 1.3% q/q, its largest quarterly increase since Q2 2022, up from a 0.6% q/q gain in Q4. Manufacturing compensation growth slowed to 0.7% q/q, its slowest quarterly advance since Q4 2020, from 0.8% q/q in Q4. Compensation in private service-producing industries increased 0.8% q/q (3.5% y/y), down slightly from a 0.9% q/q gain in Q4. Compensation in education and health services jumped 1.3% q/q, its largest quarterly gain since Q3 2023. In contrast, compensation in other services edged up 0.1% q/q in Q1, its smallest quarterly advance since before the pandemic.

The employment cost index measures the change in the cost of labor, free from the influence of employment shifts across occupations and industries. It is provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and is available in Haver’s **USECON** database. Consensus estimates from the Action Economics Forecast Survey are in Haver’s **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Compensation grew 0.9 q/q in Q1, the same pace as in Q4.
- Wage growth slowed to 0.8% q/q while benefits surged 1.2% q/q, their largest quarterly increase since Q2 2022.

Employment Cost Growth Steady in Q1 2025

Kathleen Stephansen, CBE

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The ADP National Employment Report indicated that nonfarm private sector payrolls rose 62,000 (1.4% y/y) during April after increasing 147,000 (1.4% y/y) during March, revised from 155,000. A 124,000 April rise in ADP employment had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.

Growth in median annual pay for "job stayers" eased to 4.5% y/y during April, from 4.6% y/y in March and from 4.7% y/y in the prior two months. Manufacturing sector pay grew 4.6% y/y during April, down from 4.8% y/y in March. Construction sector pay was unchanged at 4.7% y/y. Natural resource & mining sector pay grew 4.4% y/y. Financial sector pay rose 5.1% y/y, while education & health services pay rose 4.7% y/y. Leisure & hospitality pay also increased 4.7% y/y. Professional & business service sector pay increased 4.3% y/y as did trade, transportation & utilities pay. Information pay rose 4.1% y/y. Median annual pay for “job changers” rose 6.9% y/y after 6.7% y/y in March.

Small business hiring (less than 50 employees) rose 11,000 (0.6% y/y) after rising 18,000 (0.6% y/y) in March, revised down from 52,000. Employment at medium-sized firms (50-499,000 employees) rose 40,000 (1.1% y/y) after rising 43,000 (1.1% y/y). Large business hiring (500+ employees) rose 12,000 (3.4% y/y) in April, after rising 61,000 (3.6% y/y) in March, revised from 59,000.

Goods-producing employment rose 26,000 (1.3% y/y) in April, after rising 16,000 (1.3% y/y) during March, revised from 24,000. Manufacturing jobs rose 4,000 (-0.2% y/y) after rising 17,000 (-0.3% y/y) in March. The number of construction sector jobs rose 16,000 (3.4% y/y) in April, following a 2,000 (3.6% y/y) March increase, revised from 6,000. Natural resources & mining jobs rose 6,000 (2.8% y/y) in April after falling 3,000 (+1.9% y/y) in March.

The number of service-producing jobs rose 34,000 (1.4% y/y) during April, following a rise of 131,000 (1.4% y/y) in March. Professional & business services employment fell 2,000 (0.6% y/y) after rising 46,000 (0.7% y/y) in the prior month, revised from 57,000. Employment in the financial industry rose 20,000 (2.1% y/y) in April, after rising 38,000 (2.0% y/y) in March. Leisure and hospitality employment increased 27,000 (3.0% y/y), following a 23,000 (2.9% y/y) March increase, revised from 17,000. The number of education & health care jobs fell 23,000 (1.6% y/y) in April, following a 15,000 (1.8% y/y) rise in March, revised from 12,000. Information sector employment fell 8,000 (-0.1% y/y) after a rise of 3,000 (0.2% y/y) in March. The number of jobs in trade, transportation & utilities rose 21,000 (0.4% y/y) in April, after falling 4,000 (+0.4% y/y) in March, revised from a 6,000 fall. Employment in “other” services rose fell 1,000 (+3.2% y/y) following a 10,000 (3.4% y/y) rise in March, revised from 11,000.

By region, employment in the Northeast increased 10,000 (1.9% y/y) in April, following an increase of 95,000 (2.0% y/y) in March, revised from 89,000. Employment in the Midwest rose 42,000 (1.5% y/y) after a gain of 84,000 (1.4% y/y) in March, revised from 81,000. In the South, employment rose 3,000 (1.3% y/y) during April, after rising 10,000 (1.4% y/y) in March, revised from 27,000. In the West, employment rose 9,000 (0.6% y/y) after declining 43,000 (+0.6% y/y), revised from a 41,000 decline in March.

The ADP National Employment Report and Pay Insights data can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. Historical figures date back to January 2010 for private employment. Pay data date back to October 2020. The expectation figure is available in Haver's **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Employment increase is modest in both services & factory sectors.
- Wage growth for “job stayers” moderates.
- Small and medium-sized business employment slows.

Economy in Brief: January 2007

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