Global| Jan 25 2007Initial Jobless Insurance Claims Jumped
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Initial unemployment insurance claims jumped 36,000 to 325,000 last week and reversed all of the declines over the prior two weeks. Consensus expectations had been for a lesser increase to 310,000. During the last ten years there has [...]
Initial unemployment insurance claims jumped 36,000 to 325,000 last week and reversed all of the declines over the prior two weeks. Consensus expectations had been for a lesser increase to 310,000.
During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 77% correlation between the level of initial claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payroll employment.
The four-week moving average of initial claims increased modestly to 309,250 (7.1% y/y).
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance fell 39,000 and reversed part of the prior week's 113,000 surge.
The insured rate of unemployment remained at 1.9%, about where it's been since February.
The Budget & Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2007 to 2016 from the Congressional Budget Office can be found here.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 01/20/07 | 01/13/07 | Y/Y | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 325 | 289 | 15.7% | 313 | 332 | 343 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 2,484 | -3.2% | 2,459 | 2,662 | 2,924 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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