Economy in Brief: 2011

After its series of disasters Japan was expected to provide a shot of growth for the global economy as it was re-built. But the rebuilding effort is not pushing ahead with strength. One unexpected outcome has been the European debt [...]

Lower interest rates certainly are generating strength in mortgage refinancing, but so far no similar increase in home sales. The total index of mortgage applications rose 0.6% last week to 702.7 (March 16, 1990 = 100). Overall, [...]

Pessimism is increasing among German institutional investors and financial analysts. The latest ZEW report, which covers the period September 2nd to September 20th shows that the excess of pessimists over optimists rose 5.7 percentage [...]

Chain store sales continue lethargic. Last week they fell 1.2% (+3.4% y/y) and fully reversed the prior period's gain. So far in September sales are down 1.0% from August when they fell 1.8% versus the July peak. During the last ten [...]

The pump price for a gallon of regular gasoline fell another six cents last week to $3.60. Prices were down thirty-six cents since the May peak. Pump prices usually rise this time of year with increased seasonal demand. To account for [...]

Forward momentum has yet to build in the housing sector. Housing starts fell 5.0% to 571,000 units (AR) during August, the lowest level since May, after a deepened 2.3% July decline. Expectations had been for 593,000 starts which have [...]

While many developed and developing countries, are beginning to loosen monetary policies in the face of the global slowdown, India continues to tighten. Over the past year, the Bank of India has raised the repo rate 350 basis points [...]

German orders are slipping. So are orders in Spain. The monthly data are choppy but the trends are clearer. By comparison the US order-flow is holding up and has steadied. The German orders profile is the most extreme because Germany [...]