Global| Sep 20 2011U.S. Housing Starts Fall To Their Lowest In Three Months
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Forward momentum has yet to build in the housing sector. Housing starts fell 5.0% to 571,000 units (AR) during August, the lowest level since May, after a deepened 2.3% July decline. Expectations had been for 593,000 starts which have [...]
Forward momentum has yet to build in the housing sector. Housing starts
fell 5.0% to 571,000 units (AR) during August, the lowest level since May,
after a deepened 2.3% July decline. Expectations had been for 593,000
starts which have moved sideways since the initial recovery off the
recession floor in 2009. As a result, the level of new building activity
remains nearly three-quarters below the 2006 high.
Starts of multi-family units led the August decline with a 13.5% m/m drop to 154,000. Nevertheless, the trend in starts is positive. They have roughly doubled the recession low. Starts of 2-to-4 building units have lost their earlier upward momentum. Conversely, though starts of buildings with 5-or-more units slipped last month, they have tripled since the recession low.
Starts of single-family units fell 1.4% last month (-2.3% y/y). They have been moving sideways for a year and are down 26.3% from the temporary peak in April 2010. Since the 2006 high, single-family starts have fallen by more than three-quarters
Building permits increased 3.2% (7.8% y/y) and more-than-reversed the July decline. Single-family permits rose 2.5% (2.0% y/y) and multi-family permits rose 4.5% (21.8% y/y).
The housing starts figures can be found in Haver's USECON database. The expectations figure is contained in the AS1REPNA database.
What's It Worth? Property Taxes and Assessment Practices from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia can be found here.
| Housing Starts (000s, SAAR) | Aug | Jul | Jun | Y/Y % | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 571 | 601 | 615 | -5.8 | 585 | 554 | 900 |
| Single-Family | 417 | 423 | 449 | -2.3 | 471 | 442 | 616 |
| Multi-Family | 154 | 178 | 166 | -14.0 | 114 | 112 | 284 |
| Starts By Region | |||||||
| Northeast | 61 | 86 | 68 | -15.3 | 72 | 61 | 120 |
| Midwest | 80 | 78 | 126 | -25.2 | 98 | 95 | 134 |
| South | 292 | 302 | 288 | 1.7 | 296 | 281 | 451 |
| West | 138 | 135 | 133 | -1.4 | 120 | 117 | 195 |
| Building Permits | 620 | 601 | 617 | 7.8 | 603 | 582 | 896 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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