Tom Moeller

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050225a.jpg" width="353">
US real GDP growth in 4Q04 was revised up to 3.8% (AR), about the same rate of growth as in the prior quarter. The Consensus expectation had been for 3.6% growth in 4Q.
Trade sector deterioration is now estimated to have subtracted less from GDP growth; 1.43 percentage points versus 1.73 points estimated earlier. Statistics Canada corrected a $1.4B underestimation of U.S. exports to Canada during November. The correction contributed to a revision in total US goods exports to a 1.9% rate of growth (6.6% y/y) from -6.8% estimated in the advance report. Imports of goods rose 15.3% (11.4% y/y), revised from 12.2%.
An upward revision to inventory accumulation indicated that production increases to raise inventories added 0.6 percentage points to GDP growth versus 0.4 percentage points estimated earlier.
Domestic demand growth also was revised up slightly to 4.5% as growth in business fixed investment in equipment &amp; software was raised to 18.0% (14.4% y/y) from 14.9%. Residential investment growth also was raised to 2.1% (6.2% y/y) from 0.3% but growth in PCE was lowered to 4.2% (3.7% y/y) from 4.6%.
Price inflation was revised up slightly to 2.1%. The price index for domestic demand grew 2.7% (2.9% y/y) driven by an upwardly revised 5.4% (4.9% y/y) increase in the state &amp; local government price index.
The release of corporate profits for 4Q was delayed until March 30th to incorporate the effects of thespecial dividend paid to shareholders by Microsoft Corporation.
<a href="http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/feds/2005/200502/200502pap.pdf">The Reform of 1979: How It Happened and Why</a> is from the Research &amp; Statistics and Monetary Affairs Division of the US Federal Reserve Board.

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@E7/@E701/@E701.HTM">Chained 2000$, % AR</a></th>
<th scope="col">4Q &#39;04 (Prelim.</th>
<th scope="col">4Q &#39;04 (Advance)</th>
<th scope="col">3Q &#39;04</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">GDP</td>
<td>3.8%</td>
<td>3.1%</td>
<td>4.0%</td>
<td>3.9%</td>
<td>4.4%</td>
<td>3.0%</td>
<td>1.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Inventory Effect</td>
<td>0.6%</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>-1.0%</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>-0.1%</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Final Sales</td>
<td>3.2%</td>
<td>2.7%</td>
<td>5.0%</td>
<td>3.5%</td>
<td>4.0%</td>
<td>3.1%</td>
<td>1.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Trade Effect</td>
<td>-1.4%</td>
<td>-1.7%</td>
<td>-0.1%</td>
<td>-0.7%</td>
<td>-0.4%</td>
<td>-0.3%</td>
<td>-0.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Domestic Final Demand</td>
<td>4.5%</td>
<td>4.3%</td>
<td>4.9%</td>
<td>4.2%</td>
<td>4.4%</td>
<td>3.4%</td>
<td>2.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Chained GDP Price Index</td>
<td>2.1%</td>
<td>2.0%</td>
<td>1.4%</td>
<td>2.4%</td>
<td>2.2%</td>
<td>1.8%</td>
<td>1.7%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
U.S. Existing Home Sales Fell Again 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> February 25, 2005


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050225b.jpg" width="353">
Sales of existing single family homes fell for the second month and earlier sales estimates were revised down. January sales of 5.94M fell 0.5% from December which fell 2.8% from November. Consensus expectations had been for December sales of 6.75M.
Improved methodology and better modeling led to monthly revisions back through 1999. The figures reflect closings of home sales in earlier months.
Sales were mixed m/m across the country&#39;s regions. In the Northeast sales fell 3.7% (+6.8% y/y) and in the Midwest sales fell 5.8% (+9.2% y/y). In the South sales rose 3.0% (+13.3% y/y) and in the West sales ticked 0.7% higher (+17.7% y/y).
The median price of an existing home single family home fell m/m to $186,900 (+9.8% y/y).
The latest release from the National Association of Realtors is available <a href="http://www.realtor.org/publicaffairsweb.nsf/Pages/EHSJan05?OpenDocument"> here</a>.

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@E9/@E905/@E90501/@E90501.HTM">Existing Home Sales (000, AR)</a></th>
<th scope="col">Jan</th>
<th scope="col">Dec</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
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</thead>
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<td class="firstcol">Existing Single-Family</td>
<td>&nbsp;5,940</td>
<td>&nbsp;5,970</td>
<td>12.5%</td>
<td>5,913</td>
<td>5,441</td>
<td>4,995</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
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US real GDP growth in 4Q04 was revised up to 3.8% (AR), about the same rate of growth as in the prior quarter. The Consensus expectation had been for 3.6% growth in 4Q. Trade sector deterioration is now estimated to have subtracted [...]

US GDP Growth Revised Up

Carol Stone, CBE

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050224g.jpg" width="353">
After a pause in Q3, capital spending in Australia rebounded in Q4, in data released this morning by the Australian Statistics Bureau in Canberra.* New capital expenditures of private business grew 5.7% (seasonally adjusted quarterly rate) compared with a minimal 0.6% gain the prior period. The data are reported in chained Australian dollars referenced in the 2002-2003 fiscal year.
By type of expenditure, growth in the latest quarter was stronger in purchases of equipment, up 6.5%. Outlays for buildings and structures gained 3.5%. At the same time, this construction work remains firm relative to total capital expenditures. Structures had ratcheted lower as a portion of the total from the mid-1987 inception of these data to mid-2002. Since then, they have risen modestly, as seen in the second graph. This doesn&#39;t necessarily mean that construction activity was &quot;weak&quot; in an absolute sense, but that equipment and machinery tended to grow more rapidly.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050224h.jpg" width="353">
Further, the shift between structures and equipment outlays represents a shift in the structure of Australian industry. Mining and manufacturing were much more significant in 1987 when the Australian Bureau of Statistics began to collect these data. The mining sector did falter and carried down with it the construction of mine shafts and other associated structures. By contrast, &quot;other selected industries&quot; -- mostly business services, trade and travel -- expanded markedly, with a consequent spur to demand for business equipment. Once the adjustment in mining moderated, structures began to strengthen in both growth rate and share of total capital outlays.
[These data cover business-oriented industries; they exclude public services such as education, health and all government. For the relevant sectors, these capital expenditures are source data for fixed capital formation in GDP, but those national accounts data include more industries and types of outlays, such as net purchases of used assets.]

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/ANZ/@A1/@A1.HTM">Australia Business Capital Spending</a></th>
<th scope="col">Q4 2004</th>
<th scope="col">Q3 2004</th>
<th scope="col">Q4 2004/ Q4 2003</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
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<td class="firstcol">Total Capital Expenditures</td>
<td>5.7</td>
<td>0.6</td>
<td>9.9</td>
<td>6.6</td>
<td>12.4</td>
<td>15.5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Buildings &amp; Structures</td>
<td>3.5</td>
<td>0.5</td>
<td>10.3</td>
<td>11.6</td>
<td>17.8</td>
<td>9.1</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Equipment, Plant and Machinery</td>
<td>6.5</td>
<td>0.6</td>
<td>9.7</td>
<td>4.9</td>
<td>10.6</td>
<td>17.6</td>
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After a pause in Q3, capital spending in Australia rebounded in Q4, in data released this morning by the Australian Statistics Bureau in Canberra.* New capital expenditures of private business grew 5.7% (seasonally adjusted quarterly [...]

Renewed Strength in Australian Business Capital Spending

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The average price for unleaded regular gasoline rose to $1.91 per gallon last week and the average price this month of $1.90 is up versus the low of $1.83 in January.
The price of oil firmed even more with the price of West Texas Intermediate crude rising over $50.00 per barrel.
Wholesale natural gas prices moderated last week to $6.02/mmbtu (+11.1% y/y).
For the latest Short Term Energy Outlook from the US Department of Energy click <a href="http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/contents.html">here</a>.<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050224e.jpg" width="353"><img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050224f.jpg" width="353">

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/daily/@D3/@D306/@D306.HTM">Energy Prices</a></th>
<th scope="col">02/21/05</th>
<th scope="col">12/31/04</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
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<tr>
<td class="firstcol">US Retail Gasoline, Regular ($/Gal.)</td>
<td>$1.91</td>
<td>$1.79</td>
<td>12.9%</td>
<td>$1.85</td>
<td>$1.56</td>
<td>$1.35</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Domestic Spot Market Price: West Texas Intermediate ($/Barrel)</td>
<td>$51.16</td>
<td>$41.78</td>
<td>41.8%</td>
<td>$41.78</td>
<td>$32.78</td>
<td>$31.23</td>
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The average price for unleaded regular gasoline rose to $1.91 per gallon last week and the average price this month of $1.90 is up versus the low of $1.83 in January. The price of oil firmed even more with the price of West Texas [...]

Energy Prices Firm

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050224d.jpg" width="353">
The Conference Board&#39;s National Index of Help-Wanted Advertising rose to 41 in January, the highest level in nearly two years.
During the last ten years there has been an 88% correlation between the level of help-wanted advertising and the year-to-year change in non-farm payrolls.
The proportion of labor markets with rising want-ad volume held at a high 71%, indicative of broad based gains.
The Conference Board surveys help-wanted advertising volume in 51 major newspapers across the country every month.
The latest help wanted report from the Conference Board is available <a href="http://www.conference-board.org/economics/helpwanted.cfm">here</a>.
Help-Wanted Advertising and Job Vacancies from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco can be found <a href="http://www.frbsf.org/publications/economics/letter/2005/el2005-02.pdf">here</a>.

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/CBDB/@C3/@C3.HTM">Conference Board</a></th>
<th scope="col">Jan</th>
<th scope="col">Dec</th>
<th scope="col">Jan&nbsp; &#39;04</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">National Help Wanted Index</td>
<td>41</td>
<td>38</td>
<td>38</td>
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The Conference Board's National Index of Help-Wanted Advertising rose to 41 in January, the highest level in nearly two years. During the last ten years there has been an 88% correlation between the level of help-wanted advertising [...]

Help-Wanted Advertising: An Upside Breakout

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050224c.jpg" width="353">
Initial claims for unemployment insurance 9,000 to 312,000 last week following three weeks of sharp decline. The prior week&#39;s level was little revised and Consensus expectations had been for 309,000 claims.
Despite the increase, claims in February are 7.8% below the January average. The four week moving average of initial claims fell to 308,750 (-14.6% y/y).
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance fell 62,000 following a deepened 19,000 decline the prior week.
During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 75% correlation between the level of initial claims for unemployment insurance and the monthly change in payroll employment. There has been a (negative) 66% correlation with the level of continuing claims.
The insured rate of unemployment was stable at a low 2.1%.
The February 2005 Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting are available <a href="http://www.federalreserve.gov/fomc/minutes/20050202.htm"> here</a>.
Expectations and the Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism from the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City can be found <a href="http://www.kansascityfed.org/Publicat/econrev/Pdf/4Q04sell.pdf"> here</a>.

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/WEEKLY/@W5/@W507/@W507.HTM">Unemployment Insurance (000s)</a></th>
<th scope="col">02/19/05</th>
<th scope="col">02/12/05</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
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</thead>
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<td class="firstcol">Initial Claims</td>
<td>312</td>
<td>303</td>
<td>-11.4%</td>
<td>343</td>
<td>402</td>
<td>404</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Continuing Claims</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>2,650</td>
<td>-15.8%</td>
<td>2,926</td>
<td>3,531</td>
<td>3,570</td>
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Initial claims for unemployment insurance 9,000 to 312,000 last week following three weeks of sharp decline. The prior week's level was little revised and Consensus expectations had been for 309,000 claims. Despite the increase, [...]

Initial Jobless Insurance Claims Up Modestly

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050224b.jpg" width="353">
Durable goods orders fell 0.9% in January following an upwardly revised gain in December of 1.4%. Consensus expectations had been for no change.
Orders for transportation equipment weakened during the last two months, down 5.3% in January and 2.2% in December due to huge declines in commercial and defense aircraft orders. Less transportation, durable goods orders rose 0.8% (13.2% y/y) last month following an upwardly revised 2.8% December increase.
Nondefense capital goods orders rose 0.2% but less aircraft orders rose 2.9% after an upwardly revised 3.3% December spurt.
Orders for computers &amp; electronic products fell 1.2% (+11.1% y/y) following the upwardly revised 8.3% surge in December. Electrical equipment orders jumped 13.1% (14.6% y/y) and machinery orders rose 0.3% (18.3% y/y). Primary metals orders logged a third consecutive month of strength with a 1.6% rise (27.2% y/y) and orders for fabricated metals rose 1.2% as well (+7.6% y/y).<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050224a.jpg" width="353">
Inventories of durable goods jumped 0.9% (8.6% y/y). Combined with a 1.5% (12.4% y/y) surge in shipments, which followed a 2.8% December jump, the I/S ratio fell to the lowest level since last May.
Unfilled orders slipped 0.2%, the first monthly decline in a year (+8.9% y/y). As shipments surged during the last two months, the ratio of backlogs to shipments reversed nearly all of last year&#39;s gains.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@ED/@ED01/@ED0101/@ED0101.HTM">NAICS Classification</a></th>
<th scope="col">Jan</th>
<th scope="col">Dec</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
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<td class="firstcol">Durable Goods Orders</td>
<td>-0.9%</td>
<td>1.4%</td>
<td>11.6%</td>
<td>10.8%</td>
<td>2.6%</td>
<td>-1.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Nondefense Capital Goods</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>-0.7%</td>
<td>18.8%</td>
<td>13.7%</td>
<td>5.6%</td>
<td>-7.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Excluding Aircraft</td>
<td>2.9%</td>
<td>3.3%</td>
<td>17.0%</td>
<td>11.7%</td>
<td>6.6%</td>
<td>-7.1%</td>
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</tbody>
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Durable goods orders fell 0.9% in January following an upwardly revised gain in December of 1.4%. Consensus expectations had been for no change. Orders for transportation equipment weakened during the last two months, down 5.3% in [...]

U.S. Durable Goods Orders Lower in January, Trend Strong

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050224b.jpg" width="353">
Durable goods orders fell 0.9% in January following an upwardly revised gain in December of 1.4%. Consensus expectations had been for no change.
Orders for transportation equipment weakened during the last two months, down 5.3% in January and 2.2% in December due to huge declines in commercial and defense aircraft orders. Less transportation, durable goods orders rose 0.8% (13.2% y/y) last month following an upwardly revised 2.8% December increase.
Nondefense capital goods orders rose 0.2% but less aircraft orders rose 2.9% after an upwardly revised 3.3% December spurt.
Orders for computers &amp; electronic products fell 1.2% (+11.1% y/y) following the upwardly revised 8.3% surge in December. Electrical equipment orders jumped 13.1% (14.6% y/y) and machinery orders rose 0.3% (18.3% y/y). Primary metals orders logged a third consecutive month of strength with a 1.6% rise (27.2% y/y) and orders for fabricated metals rose 1.2% as well (+7.6% y/y).<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050224a.jpg" width="353">
Inventories of durable goods jumped 0.9% (8.6% y/y). Combined with a 1.5% (12.4% y/y) surge in shipments, which followed a 2.8% December jump, the I/S ratio fell to the lowest level since last May.
Unfilled orders slipped 0.2%, the first monthly decline in a year (+8.9% y/y). As shipments surged during the last two months, the ratio of backlogs to shipments reversed nearly all of last year&#39;s gains.

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<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@ED/@ED01/@ED0101/@ED0101.HTM">NAICS Classification</a></th>
<th scope="col">Jan</th>
<th scope="col">Dec</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Durable Goods Orders</td>
<td>-0.9%</td>
<td>1.4%</td>
<td>11.6%</td>
<td>10.8%</td>
<td>2.6%</td>
<td>-1.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Nondefense Capital Goods</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>-0.7%</td>
<td>18.8%</td>
<td>13.7%</td>
<td>5.6%</td>
<td>-7.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Excluding Aircraft</td>
<td>2.9%</td>
<td>3.3%</td>
<td>17.0%</td>
<td>11.7%</td>
<td>6.6%</td>
<td>-7.1%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Initial Jobless Insurance Claims Up Modestly 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> February 24, 2005


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050224c.jpg" width="353">
Initial claims for unemployment insurance 9,000 to 312,000 last week following three weeks of sharp decline. The prior week&#39;s level was little revised and Consensus expectations had been for 309,000 claims.
Despite the increase, claims in February are 7.8% below the January average. The four week moving average of initial claims fell to 308,750 (-14.6% y/y).
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance fell 62,000 following a deepened 19,000 decline the prior week.
During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 75% correlation between the level of initial claims for unemployment insurance and the monthly change in payroll employment. There has been a (negative) 66% correlation with the level of continuing claims.
The insured rate of unemployment was stable at a low 2.1%.
The February 2005 Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting are available <a href="http://www.federalreserve.gov/fomc/minutes/20050202.htm"> here</a>.
Expectations and the Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism from the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City can be found <a href="http://www.kansascityfed.org/Publicat/econrev/Pdf/4Q04sell.pdf"> here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/WEEKLY/@W5/@W507/@W507.HTM">Unemployment Insurance (000s)</a></th>
<th scope="col">02/19/05</th>
<th scope="col">02/12/05</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Initial Claims</td>
<td>312</td>
<td>303</td>
<td>-11.4%</td>
<td>343</td>
<td>402</td>
<td>404</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Continuing Claims</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>2,650</td>
<td>-15.8%</td>
<td>2,926</td>
<td>3,531</td>
<td>3,570</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Help-Wanted Advertising: An Upside Breakout 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> February 24, 2005


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050224d.jpg" width="353">
The Conference Board&#39;s National Index of Help-Wanted Advertising rose to 41 in January, the highest level in nearly two years.
During the last ten years there has been an 88% correlation between the level of help-wanted advertising and the year-to-year change in non-farm payrolls.
The proportion of labor markets with rising want-ad volume held at a high 71%, indicative of broad based gains.
The Conference Board surveys help-wanted advertising volume in 51 major newspapers across the country every month.
The latest help wanted report from the Conference Board is available <a href="http://www.conference-board.org/economics/helpwanted.cfm">here</a>.
Help-Wanted Advertising and Job Vacancies from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco can be found <a href="http://www.frbsf.org/publications/economics/letter/2005/el2005-02.pdf">here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/CBDB/@C3/@C3.HTM">Conference Board</a></th>
<th scope="col">Jan</th>
<th scope="col">Dec</th>
<th scope="col">Jan&nbsp; &#39;04</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">National Help Wanted Index</td>
<td>41</td>
<td>38</td>
<td>38</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Energy Prices Firm 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> February 24, 2005


The average price for unleaded regular gasoline rose to $1.91 per gallon last week and the average price this month of $1.90 is up versus the low of $1.83 in January.
The price of oil firmed even more with the price of West Texas Intermediate crude rising over $50.00 per barrel.
Wholesale natural gas prices moderated last week to $6.02/mmbtu (+11.1% y/y).
For the latest Short Term Energy Outlook from the US Department of Energy click <a href="http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/contents.html">here</a>.<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050224e.jpg" width="353"><img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050224f.jpg" width="353">

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<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/daily/@D3/@D306/@D306.HTM">Energy Prices</a></th>
<th scope="col">02/21/05</th>
<th scope="col">12/31/04</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">US Retail Gasoline, Regular ($/Gal.)</td>
<td>$1.91</td>
<td>$1.79</td>
<td>12.9%</td>
<td>$1.85</td>
<td>$1.56</td>
<td>$1.35</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Domestic Spot Market Price: West Texas Intermediate ($/Barrel)</td>
<td>$51.16</td>
<td>$41.78</td>
<td>41.8%</td>
<td>$41.78</td>
<td>$32.78</td>
<td>$31.23</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050223d.jpg" width="353">
Has Japan fallen into yet another recession? Last week&#39;s GDP report, with a third consecutive decline in Q4, was read by some analysts as indicating just such a renewed slump. Wednesday in Tokyo, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) published industry activity data for December that might be seen casting a somewhat brighter light on the Japanese economy.
The All-Industry Activity Index (2000=100) fell 0.3% in December after a 0.2% rise in November. The graph shows that it was strong but erratic in the spring and has softened in the last several months, basically stagnating over the second half of the year.
Among its components, construction activity has been in a long downtrend since the outset of its index in 1993 and it remains on that path. The most favorable observation on this series is that the 3.8% year-on-year decline in December is the smallest since July 2003.
The industrial production index, reported about a week ago, fell 0.8% in December, but that followed a 1.7% jump in November, tracing an erratic month-to-month pattern. The trend, indicated by the December-to-December growth, saw a 1.8% advance, which is slower than the gains for 2003 and 2004 overall.
Tertiary activity, that is, services, was flat in December, but it too had risen in November, and in December was 2.2% ahead of a year earlier. In contrast to other sectors, services seem to be picking up somewhat. This tendency varied widely among service sectors, however, as wholesale and retail trade held some gains, while restaurants and accommodations stumbled. Information services sagged markedly early in 2004, but firmed noticeably late in the year.
Thus, it&#39;s difficult to put a single characterization on the Japanese economy at this time. &quot;Fragile&quot; might fit, with an easy potential to weaken. But service industries, as in other nations&#39; economies, may be providing some stability, helping to diminish cyclical tendencies.

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</table>
<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">Dec 2004</th>
<th scope="col">Nov 2004</th>
<th scope="col">Q4/Q3</th>
<th scope="col">Dec 04/ Dec 03</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">All- Industry Activity</td>
<td>-0.3</td>
<td>+0.2</td>
<td>-0.1</td>
<td>+1.7</td>
<td>+2.3</td>
<td>+0.9</td>
<td>-0.4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Construction</td>
<td>-1.6</td>
<td>-1.0</td>
<td>-0.9</td>
<td>-3.8</td>
<td>-5.7</td>
<td>-5.3</td>
<td>-4.3</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Industrial Production</td>
<td>-0.8</td>
<td>+1.7</td>
<td>-0.7</td>
<td>+1.8</td>
<td>+5.6</td>
<td>+3.2</td>
<td>-1.2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Tertiary Activity</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>+0.4</td>
<td>+0.5</td>
<td>+2.2</td>
<td>+2.1</td>
<td>+0.8</td>
<td>0</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Memo: GDP</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>-0.1</td>
<td>+0.6 (Q4/Q4)</td>
<td>+2.6</td>
<td>+1.4</td>
<td>-0.3</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
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Has Japan fallen into yet another recession? Last week's GDP report, with a third consecutive decline in Q4, was read by some analysts as indicating just such a renewed slump. Wednesday in Tokyo, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and [...]

Mixed Trends in Japanese Sectoral Activity

USD/EUR exchange rate uncoupling from interest rate differential

Widespread downgrading of 2025 GDP outlook

Trade and fiscal policy uncertainty has exploded with the new administration

Much lower US electricity costs gives it a competitive advantage

Wage growth slowing in the US and Euro area; elevated and sticky in the UK

Stagflation-lite: Blue Chip forecasts below-trend growth and elevated inflation

US policy gyrations boosting policy uncertainty worldwide

Expected tariff hikes have boosted inflation expectations

US and Japan ended 2024 on solid ground in contrast to Europe

US economy expected to outperform other major economies in 2025

Only modest evidence of AI-related surge in US productivity growth

Previous Trump tariffs fading. A boost from new tariffs ahead?

Heavy US manufacturing states underperforming while Sun Belt states outperforming

Rising long-term yields a global phenomenon

US financial market concerns shifting from growth to inflation

Economic activity is picking up in the US but remains lackluster abroad

Policy uncertainty has surged since the US national elections.

Recent turnaround in US economic surprises leading to increases in rate-cut expectations

The outlook has brightened in the US, while it has dimmed for other major economies

Headline US PCE inflation elevated by sticky services prices

US and global equity prices have recently diverged

US leading global upturn in economic surprises

Blue Chip forecasters look for further significant monetary easing apart from Japan

Recent rise in global supply chain pressures could augur a pickup in global inflation pressures

Underperforming German economy generating increased policy uncertainty relative to Europe and the US

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Real GDP eased 0.3% SAAR (+2.1% y/y) during the first quarter of 2025 after increasing 2.4% in Q4’24 and 3.1% in Q3’24. A 0.4% increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. It was the first decline since Q1 2022.

Foreign trade subtracted 4.83 percentage points from growth last quarter as imports surged 41.3% (13.4% y/y) ahead of tariffs, which began to come into effect in the first quarter. The rise followed a 1.9% decline in Q4’24. Exports rose 1.8% (3.0% y/y) after easing 0.2% in Q4. Inventories added 2.25 percentage points to growth after subtracting 0.84 percentage point from Q4 growth.

Real final sales to domestic purchasers grew 2.3% (2.9% y/y) in Q1 after rising 3.0% in Q4. Personal consumption expenditures rose 1.8% (3.1% y/y) following a 4.0% gain. Durable goods spending fell 3.4% (+5.3% y/y) after surging 12.4% in Q4. Motor vehicle purchases declined 11.1% (+5.5% y/y) after strengthening 19.7% in Q4. Spending on home furnishings & appliances gained 1.5% (6.1% y/y) following a 5.4% rise. Recreational goods & vehicle outlays rose 2.5% (7.0% y/y) last quarter after a 13.9% Q4 increase.

Nondurable goods outlays rose 2.7% (3.0% y/y) following 3.1% growth in Q4. Apparel spending increased 6.7% (2.5% y/y) following a 5.0% rise. Food & beverage buying gained 2.5% (2.3% y/y) after a 1.8% increase. Gasoline & fuel oil purchases increased 4.6% (3.4% y/y) after falling 2.0% in Q4.

Spending on services increased 2.4% last quarter (2.7% y/y) after a 3.0% gain. Outlays on housing & utilities increased 3.4% (1.8% y/y) after rising 1.1% in Q4. Health care expenditures rose 4.0% (4.8% y/y) following a 4.7% strengthening. Transportation outlays increased 5.3% (4.6% y/y) after a 3.7% rise while recreation spending rose 4.7% (2.8% y/y) following a 4.5% rise. Restaurant & hotel expenditures declined 2.1% (+0.5% y/y) following a 2.8% rise. Financial services expenditures rose 1.9% (2.0% y/y) after a 3.1% Q4 increase.

Business fixed investment increased 9.8% (3.6% y/y) following a 3.0% decline in Q4. Expenditures on structures rose 0.4% (-0.4% y/y) after a 2.9% increase. Expenditures on producers’ durable equipment jumped 22.5% (8.0% y/y) after falling 8.7%.  Outlays on information processing equipment soared 69.3% (18.9% y/y) following a 7.3% decline. Industrial equipment investment fell 1.4% (-0.3% y/y) after easing 0.9%. Intellectual property product spending rose 4.1% (1.8% y/y) following a 0.5% decline. 

Residential structures investment increased 1.3% (-0.1% y/y) in Q1 after a 5.5% Q4 rise.

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Government spending fell 1.5% (+2.4% y/y) after a 3.1% Q4 rise. Federal government expenditures declined 5.1% (+2.9% y/y) after rising 4.0% in Q4. National defense expenditures declined 8.0% (+4.0% y/y) after increasing 4.8% in Q4. State & local government spending rose 0.8% (2.1% y/y) following a 2.5% rise.

The GDP price index rose 3.7% (2.6% y/y) after increasing 2.3% in Q4. It was the largest increase since Q4’22. A 2.4% increase had been expected. The PCE chain price index increased 3.6% (2.5% y/y) following a 2.4% rise. The PCE price index excluding food and energy rose 3.5% (2.8% y/y) after increasing 2.6% in Q4. The business fixed investment price index rose 0.4% (1.8% y/y) after 1.5% rise. The residential price index strengthened 3.9% (3.2% y/y) after a 1.9% rise while the government price index increased 4.7% (2.8% y/y) following a 2.1% rise.

The GDP data can be found in Haver’s **USECON** and **USNA** databases. **USNA** contains virtually all of the Bureau of Economic Analysis detail in the national accounts. The Action Economics consensus estimates can be found in **AS1REPNA**.

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- Decline in GDP is first in three years.
- Foreign trade subtracts substantially ahead of tariffs.
- Domestic final demand growth weakens.
- Price index strengthens with higher core PCE prices.

U.S. GDP Unexpectedly Declines in Q1’25; Prices Strengthen

Michael J. Moran

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High-side readings on the price indexes for personal consumption expenditures in January and February caused some concern about emerging price pressure, especially with some policies of the Trump administration possibly adding to the upward force. However, March brought notable relief, with the headline price index falling slightly (-0.04%). A marked decline in energy prices was helpful (-2.7%), but core prices also were subdued, increasing less than 0.1%.  Year-over-year changes were still above the Fed’s target of 2%, but only barely so for the headline measure (2.3%). The core index backed away from the reading of 3.0% in February, but the latest reading of 2.7% was in line with observations in the past year, and still uncomfortably above target.

Consumers roused from a winter slumber in March, with nominal outlays increasing 0.7%. With inflation restrained, real outlays also posted a gain of 0.7%. Spending on durable gods stood out, with real outlays advancing 3.2%. Real outlays for both nondurable goods and services rose 0.4%, a solid pace. Signs of life were certainly welcome after an average decline of 0.1% in January and February. The March rebound left growth of 1.8% (annual rate) in the first quarter.

The brisk increase in spending in March was supported by a solid gain in personal income (0.5% in both nominal and real terms). Growth in wage income was firm at 0.5%, while proprietors’ income was robust with a gain of 1.8% (not annualized!). The farm sector led the advance in proprietors’ income, but the nonfarm sector also was strong (0.6%).

The personal income and consumption figures are available in Haver’s **USECON** database with detail in the **USNA** database. The Action Economics forecasts are in **AS1REPNA**.

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- Price pressure eases.
- Spending rebounds after two soft months.

Personal Income, Consumption, and Prices in March

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The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking home sales measure based on contract signings, from the National Association of Realtors rose 6.1% to 76.5 (-0.6% y/y) during March after rising a little-revised 2.1% in February. These changes followed a 4.6% January decline.

The rise in March sales occurred as the rate on a 30-year mortgage eased to an average 6.65% from 6.84% in February. This rate was well above a low of 2.68% averaged in December 2020.

Pending home sales were up in most regions of the country. Sales in the Midwest rose 4.9% (1.4% y/y) last month after rising 1.8% in February. Sales in the South increased 9.8% (-0.4% y/y) following a 5.8% February rise. Sales in the West improved 4.8% (-2.0% y/y) after falling 3.0% in February. Sales in the Northeast were off 0.5% (-3.0% y/y) in March after falling 0.9% in February.

The pending home sales index measures sales at the time the contract for the purchase of an existing home is signed, similar to the Census Bureau's new home sales data. In contrast, the National Association of Realtors' existing home sales data are recorded when the sale is closed, which is usually a couple of months after the sales contract has been signed. In developing the pending home sales index, the NAR found that the level of monthly sales contract activity leads the level of closed existing home sales by about two months.

The series dates back to 2001 and are available in Haver's **PREALTOR** database. Weekly mortgage interest rates from the Mortgage Bankers Association can be found in the **WEEKLY** database.

- Sales rise to highest level in four months.
- Strength is evident throughout most of country.

U.S. Pending Home Sales Surge in March

Sandy Batten

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The employment cost index (ECI) for civilian workers, arguably the most accurate measure of labor compensation in the United States, rose 0.9% q/q (3.6% y/y) in Q1, the same quarterly increase as in last year’s Q4, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The quarterly gains have fluctuated between 0.8% and 1.0% for the past six quarters. The Action Economics Forecast Survey had expected a 0.9% q/q increase and a 3.5% y/y gain.

Wages and salaries for civilian workers rose 0.8% q/q (3.5% y/y) in Q1, down from 1.0% q/q in Q4. This tied the Q3 2024 quarterly rise as the smallest increase since Q2 2021. It was also the smallest y/y increase since Q2 2021. Benefits increased by an outsized 1.2% q/q (3.9% y/y) in Q1 versus 0.8% q/q in Q4. This is the largest quarterly gain since Q2 2022. In general, employment cost gains remain above the pace observed prior to the pandemic but are slowing gradually.

Private industry workers’ compensation rose 0.8% q/q (3.4% y/y) in Q1, down from 0.9% q/q (3.6% y/y) in Q4. Wages and salaries for private industry workers increased 0.8% q/q (3.4% y/y) in Q1 versus 0.8% q/q (3.7% y/y) in Q4. The quarterly gain in Q1 tied that in Q3 2024 as the smallest increase since Q4 2020. Benefits for private industry workers jumped 1.2% q/q (3.6% y/y). the largest quarterly gain since Q2 2022. The acceleration in benefits in Q1 was primarily in service-producing industries.

Compensation in private goods-producing industries increased 1.0% q/q (3.2% y/y) in Q1, the largest quarterly gain in five quarters, versus a 0.7% q/q increase in Q4. Compensation in construction jumped 1.3% q/q, its largest quarterly increase since Q2 2022, up from a 0.6% q/q gain in Q4. Manufacturing compensation growth slowed to 0.7% q/q, its slowest quarterly advance since Q4 2020, from 0.8% q/q in Q4. Compensation in private service-producing industries increased 0.8% q/q (3.5% y/y), down slightly from a 0.9% q/q gain in Q4. Compensation in education and health services jumped 1.3% q/q, its largest quarterly gain since Q3 2023. In contrast, compensation in other services edged up 0.1% q/q in Q1, its smallest quarterly advance since before the pandemic.

The employment cost index measures the change in the cost of labor, free from the influence of employment shifts across occupations and industries. It is provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and is available in Haver’s **USECON** database. Consensus estimates from the Action Economics Forecast Survey are in Haver’s **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Compensation grew 0.9 q/q in Q1, the same pace as in Q4.
- Wage growth slowed to 0.8% q/q while benefits surged 1.2% q/q, their largest quarterly increase since Q2 2022.

Employment Cost Growth Steady in Q1 2025

Kathleen Stephansen, CBE

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The ADP National Employment Report indicated that nonfarm private sector payrolls rose 62,000 (1.4% y/y) during April after increasing 147,000 (1.4% y/y) during March, revised from 155,000. A 124,000 April rise in ADP employment had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.

Growth in median annual pay for "job stayers" eased to 4.5% y/y during April, from 4.6% y/y in March and from 4.7% y/y in the prior two months. Manufacturing sector pay grew 4.6% y/y during April, down from 4.8% y/y in March. Construction sector pay was unchanged at 4.7% y/y. Natural resource & mining sector pay grew 4.4% y/y. Financial sector pay rose 5.1% y/y, while education & health services pay rose 4.7% y/y. Leisure & hospitality pay also increased 4.7% y/y. Professional & business service sector pay increased 4.3% y/y as did trade, transportation & utilities pay. Information pay rose 4.1% y/y. Median annual pay for “job changers” rose 6.9% y/y after 6.7% y/y in March.

Small business hiring (less than 50 employees) rose 11,000 (0.6% y/y) after rising 18,000 (0.6% y/y) in March, revised down from 52,000. Employment at medium-sized firms (50-499,000 employees) rose 40,000 (1.1% y/y) after rising 43,000 (1.1% y/y). Large business hiring (500+ employees) rose 12,000 (3.4% y/y) in April, after rising 61,000 (3.6% y/y) in March, revised from 59,000.

Goods-producing employment rose 26,000 (1.3% y/y) in April, after rising 16,000 (1.3% y/y) during March, revised from 24,000. Manufacturing jobs rose 4,000 (-0.2% y/y) after rising 17,000 (-0.3% y/y) in March. The number of construction sector jobs rose 16,000 (3.4% y/y) in April, following a 2,000 (3.6% y/y) March increase, revised from 6,000. Natural resources & mining jobs rose 6,000 (2.8% y/y) in April after falling 3,000 (+1.9% y/y) in March.

The number of service-producing jobs rose 34,000 (1.4% y/y) during April, following a rise of 131,000 (1.4% y/y) in March. Professional & business services employment fell 2,000 (0.6% y/y) after rising 46,000 (0.7% y/y) in the prior month, revised from 57,000. Employment in the financial industry rose 20,000 (2.1% y/y) in April, after rising 38,000 (2.0% y/y) in March. Leisure and hospitality employment increased 27,000 (3.0% y/y), following a 23,000 (2.9% y/y) March increase, revised from 17,000. The number of education & health care jobs fell 23,000 (1.6% y/y) in April, following a 15,000 (1.8% y/y) rise in March, revised from 12,000. Information sector employment fell 8,000 (-0.1% y/y) after a rise of 3,000 (0.2% y/y) in March. The number of jobs in trade, transportation & utilities rose 21,000 (0.4% y/y) in April, after falling 4,000 (+0.4% y/y) in March, revised from a 6,000 fall. Employment in “other” services rose fell 1,000 (+3.2% y/y) following a 10,000 (3.4% y/y) rise in March, revised from 11,000.

By region, employment in the Northeast increased 10,000 (1.9% y/y) in April, following an increase of 95,000 (2.0% y/y) in March, revised from 89,000. Employment in the Midwest rose 42,000 (1.5% y/y) after a gain of 84,000 (1.4% y/y) in March, revised from 81,000. In the South, employment rose 3,000 (1.3% y/y) during April, after rising 10,000 (1.4% y/y) in March, revised from 27,000. In the West, employment rose 9,000 (0.6% y/y) after declining 43,000 (+0.6% y/y), revised from a 41,000 decline in March.

The ADP National Employment Report and Pay Insights data can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. Historical figures date back to January 2010 for private employment. Pay data date back to October 2020. The expectation figure is available in Haver's **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Employment increase is modest in both services & factory sectors.
- Wage growth for “job stayers” moderates.
- Small and medium-sized business employment slows.

Economy in Brief: February 2005

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