Global| Feb 24 2005Initial Jobless Insurance Claims Up Modestly
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Initial claims for unemployment insurance 9,000 to 312,000 last week following three weeks of sharp decline. The prior week's level was little revised and Consensus expectations had been for 309,000 claims. Despite the increase, [...]
Initial claims for unemployment insurance 9,000 to 312,000 last week following three weeks of sharp decline. The prior week's level was little revised and Consensus expectations had been for 309,000 claims.
Despite the increase, claims in February are 7.8% below the January average. The four week moving average of initial claims fell to 308,750 (-14.6% y/y).
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance fell 62,000 following a deepened 19,000 decline the prior week.
During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 75% correlation between the level of initial claims for unemployment insurance and the monthly change in payroll employment. There has been a (negative) 66% correlation with the level of continuing claims.
The insured rate of unemployment was stable at a low 2.1%.
The February 2005 Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting are available here.
Expectations and the Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism from the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City can be found here.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 02/19/05 | 02/12/05 | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 312 | 303 | -11.4% | 343 | 402 | 404 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 2,650 | -15.8% | 2,926 | 3,531 | 3,570 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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