Tom Moeller

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/021018a.jpg" width="353">
Consumer prices (CPI-U) rose 0.2% last month, equaling Consensus expectations. Excluding food and energy, prices rose a less than expected 0.1%.
Tobacco prices again were strong, rising 1.6% following a 2.4% jump in August. The core CPI less tobacco rose 0.1% (1.9% AR, YTD).
Amongst goods prices weakness was widespread. Household furnishings and operation prices fell 0.2% (-1.5% AR, YTD). Apparel prices rose just 0.1% (-1.2% AR, YTD). New and used vehicle prices also rose just 0.1% (-2.4% AR, YTD).
Services prices weakened after the prior month&#39;s spurt. Shelter prices rose just 0.1% (3.3% AR, YTD) after a 0.4% August gain, though the price gain for medical care services doubled to 0.4% (5.1% AR, YTD). Public transportation prices fell 0.9% (-1.3% AR, YTD) for the third decline in four months. Education prices also fell and recreation prices were unchanged.
Energy prices were strong last month led by a 1.0% (30.9% AR, YTD) rise in gasoline prices. Fuel oil prices also were strong, up 1.2%, and piped gas &amp; electricity prices were up 0.4% for the second month.

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@E8/@E801/@E80101/@E80101.HTM">Consumer Price Index</a></th>
<th scope="col">Sept</th>
<th scope="col">Aug</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Total&nbsp;</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>1.5%</td>
<td>2.8%</td>
<td>3.4%</td>
<td>2.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;Total less Food &amp; Energy</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>2.2%</td>
<td>2.7%</td>
<td>2.4%</td>
<td>2.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Goods less Food &amp; Energy</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>-1.1%</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>0.5%</td>
<td>0.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Services less Energy</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>3.6%</td>
<td>3.7%</td>
<td>3.3%</td>
<td>2.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;Energy</td>
<td>0.7%</td>
<td>0.6%</td>
<td>-4.9%</td>
<td>3.7%</td>
<td>16.9%</td>
<td>3.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;Food &amp; Beverages</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>-0.1%</td>
<td>1.3%</td>
<td>3.1%</td>
<td>2.3%</td>
<td>2.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@E8/@E801/@E80113/@E80113.HTM">Chained CPI: Total (NSA)l</a></td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>1.2%</td>
<td>2.1%</td>
<td>2.0%</td>
<td>NA</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;Total less Food &amp; Energy</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>1.7%</td>
<td>1.9%</td>
<td>&nbsp;1.4%</td>
<td>NA</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
U.S. Trade Deficit Deepened Sharply 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> October 18, 2002


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/021018b.jpg" width="353">
The U.S. foreign trade deficit deepened much more than expected in August to a new record. The previously reported improvement in July was lessened due to lowered exports. Consensus expectations had been for a August deficit of $35.2B
Exports fell (8.6% AR, YTD) and gave back all of the July gain. Capital goods exports fell a sharp 1.5% (8.9% AR, YTD) and nonauto consumer goods exports (-0.3% AR, YTD) also fell sharply.
Imports rose strongly due to a 4.7% surge in industrial supplies &amp; materials (incl. oil). Capital goods imports fell but imports of nonauto consumer goods were strong.
The refiner&#39;s acquisition cost of imported crude oil rose to $26.01 in August versus $15.95 in December. Crude oil prices rose further in September and October.

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@EE/@EE03/@EE03.HTM">Foreign Trade</a></th>
<th scope="col">Aug</th>
<th scope="col">July</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
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</thead>
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<td class="firstcol">Trade Deficit</td>
<td>$38.5B</td>
<td>$35.1B</td>
<td>$29.5B(8/01)</td>
<td>$358.3B</td>
<td>$378.7B</td>
<td>$262.2B</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Exports - Goods &amp; Services</td>
<td>-1.3%</td>
<td>0.9%</td>
<td>-1.5%</td>
<td>-6.2%</td>
<td>11.2%</td>
<td>2.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Imports - Goods &amp; Services</td>
<td>2.0%</td>
<td>-0.8%</td>
<td>6.9%</td>
<td>-6.0%</td>
<td>18.3%</td>
<td>10.9%</td>
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Consumer prices (CPI-U) rose 0.2% last month, equaling Consensus expectations. Excluding food and energy, prices rose a less than expected 0.1%. Tobacco prices again were strong, rising 1.6% following a 2.4% jump in August. The core [...]

CPI Rose Moderately

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/021017a.jpg" width="353">
Housing starts were stronger than expected last month rising 13.3% m/m to the highest level since 1986. Starts in August were revised slightly higher due to raised multi-family starts.
Single family starts rose 18.2% from the previous month to a record high. 
Multi-family starts fell slightly m/m and have moved sideways since 1997.
Building permits rose 3.7% m/m to the highest level since February led by strong permits for single family homes. Permits for multi-family unit structures also rose.

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@E9/@E901/@E90101/@E90101.HTM">Housing Starts (000s, AR)</a></th>
<th scope="col">Sept</th>
<th scope="col">Aug</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
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<td class="firstcol">Total</td>
<td>1,843</td>
<td>1,627</td>
<td>16.5%</td>
<td>1,603</td>
<td>1,573</td>
<td>1,647</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Single Family</td>
<td>1,477</td>
<td>1,250</td>
<td>16.9%</td>
<td>1,273</td>
<td>1,232</td>
<td>1,306</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Multi Family</td>
<td>366</td>
<td>377</td>
<td>14.7%</td>
<td>330</td>
<td>341</td>
<td>341</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Industrial Production Down Slightly 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> October 17, 2002


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/021017b.jpg" width="353">
Industrial production fell slightly in September versus Consensus expectations for a 0.1% rise. August figures were little revised. Production was up 3.7% (AR) year to date.
Output in the manufacturing sector fell 0.2% (3.3% AR, YTD) for the second consecutive month.
Lower motor vehicle and parts output (12.6% AR, YTD) led the factory sector decline, off for the second consecutive month. Output of furniture &amp; fixtures fell for the sixth month this year. 
Output of business equipment fell a sharp 1.7% (-2.5% AR, YTD) led by lower output of transit and other industrial equipment. Output of information processing equipment rose for only the third time this year 
Capacity utilization fell slightly to the lowest level since May. Capacity again rose 0.1%(1.0% AR, YTD) as it has since early last year.

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@EA/@EA.HTM">Production &amp; Capacity</a></th>
<th scope="col">Sept</th>
<th scope="col">Aug</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Industrial Production</td>
<td>-0.1%</td>
<td>-0.3%</td>
<td>1.4%</td>
<td>-3.7%</td>
<td>4.5%</td>
<td>3.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Capacity Utilization</td>
<td>75.9%</td>
<td>76.0%</td>
<td>75.5%(9/01)</td>
<td>76.8%</td>
<td>81.8%</td>
<td>81.4%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Initial Jobless Insurance Claims Rose 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> October 17, 2002


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/021017c.jpg" width="353">
Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose as expected in the latest week. Claims in the prior week were revised up slightly.
The latest claims figure was for the survey period for October nonfarm payrolls and claims were down versus the September survey period.
The four-week moving average fell to 408,750, the lowest figure since late-August.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance jumped 3.9% in the latest available week but the prior week&#39;s levelwas revised down. The latest figure was the highest since late May.
The weekly insured rate of unemployment rose to 2.9% from 2.8% the previous week.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/WEEKLY/@W5/@W507/@W507.HTM">Unemployment Insurance (000s)</a></th>
<th scope="col">10/12/02</th>
<th scope="col">10/5/02</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Initial Claims</td>
<td>411.0</td>
<td>389.0</td>
<td>-12.7%</td>
<td>405.8</td>
<td>299.8</td>
<td>297.7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Continuing Claims</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>3,755</td>
<td>8.1%</td>
<td>3,021</td>
<td>2,114</td>
<td>2,186</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Philadelphia Fed Index Slumped 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> October 17, 2002


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/021017d.jpg" width="353">
The Philadelphia Fed&#146;s index of general business conditions for October was much weaker than expected. The Business Activity Index fell to -13.1, the lowest level since last November but only the second negative reading this year. A slightly positive reading had been expected.
Amongst the components, all turned negative versus September.
The business conditions index reflects a separate survey question, not the components. 
The prices paid index fell modestly, but remained quite positive as it has since March.
During the last ten years there has been a 46% correlation between the level of the General Activity Index and the quarterly change in real GDP. Over the last twenty years that correlation has been 67%.
For a discussion of the Philadelphia Fed&#39;s Business Outlook Survey click <a href="http://www.phil.frb.org/files/bos/brso98mt.pdf">here</a>. 

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/SURVEYS/@S5/@S504/@S504.HTM">Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook</a></th>
<th scope="col">Oct</th>
<th scope="col">Sept</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
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</thead>
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<td class="firstcol">General Activity Index</td>
<td>-13.1</td>
<td>2.3</td>
<td>-18.5</td>
<td>-17.3</td>
<td>8.2</td>
<td>13.3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Prices Paid Index</td>
<td>14.3</td>
<td>19.6</td>
<td>-21.4</td>
<td>-1.0</td>
<td>27.1</td>
<td>10.0</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
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Housing starts were stronger than expected last month rising 13.3% m/m to the highest level since 1986. Starts in August were revised slightly higher due to raised multi-family starts. Single family starts rose 18.2% from the previous [...]

Housing Starts Much Stronger Than Expected

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/021016b.jpg" width="353">
Since mid-August, oil prices have held near the $30.00 per barrel level for West Texas Intermediate crude.
Wholesale gasoline prices have shown more strength of late rising $0.10 per gallon, or 12%, during just the last month. Fuel oil prices were up roughly a nickel (4%) per gallon during the last month.
Sharp increases in wholesale natural gas prices, up roughly 50% since August, are beginning to show up in the CPI.

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/daily/@D3/@D306/@D30604/@D30604.HTM">Daily Crude Oil Prices</a></th>
<th scope="col">10/15/02</th>
<th scope="col">9/17/02</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
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</thead>
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<td class="firstcol">West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil</td>
<td>$29.73</td>
<td>$29.08</td>
<td>32.0%</td>
<td>$25.97</td>
<td>$30.34</td>
<td>$19.34</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
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Since mid-August, oil prices have held near the $30.00 per barrel level for West Texas Intermediate crude. Wholesale gasoline prices have shown more strength of late rising $0.10 per gallon, or 12%, during just the last month. Fuel [...]

Crude Oil Prices Hold the High Level

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/021015a.jpg" width="353">
Total business inventories fell in August for the first monthly decline since April. Consensus expectations had been for a 0.2% gain. July figures were little revised.
Retail inventories (3.9% YTD) fell led by a 0.5% decline in motor vehicle inventories, the first month-to-month decline since November. Nonauto retail inventories (1.0% YTD) fell for the first time since March.
Inventories of furniture &amp; home furnishings have been steadily accumulating (6.6% YTD) since September. Accumulation at apparel stores (1.8% YTD) has been moderate. At general merchandise stores (-1.1% YTD), inventories have continued to run off.
Overall business sales rose 0.2% (3.9% YTD) mostly on the strength of higher wholesale sales.
The inventory-to-sales ratio fell to 1.34, a new record low. 

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@ED/@ED06/@ED0601/@ED0601.HTM">Business Inventories</a></th>
<th scope="col">Aug</th>
<th scope="col">July</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
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<td class="firstcol">Total</td>
<td>-0.1%</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>-3.6%</td>
<td>-6.3%</td>
<td>5.6%</td>
<td>5.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Retail</td>
<td>-0.3%</td>
<td>0.8%</td>
<td>-0.2%</td>
<td>-5.0%</td>
<td>6.1%</td>
<td>7.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Retail excl. Autos</td>
<td>-0.1%</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>-0.1%</td>
<td>-2.0%</td>
<td>4.1%</td>
<td>5.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Wholesale</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>0.6%</td>
<td>-4.2%</td>
<td>-5.5%</td>
<td>6.6%</td>
<td>6.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Manufacturing</td>
<td>-0.0%</td>
<td>-0.1%</td>
<td>-6.2%</td>
<td>-8.0%</td>
<td>4.5%</td>
<td>3.1%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Chain Store Sales Disappoint 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> October 15, 2002


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/021015b.jpg" width="353">
Chain store sales reversed all of the prior week&#39;s gain according to the BTM-UBSW survey. Sales fell 0.9% last week following a 0.8% gain the prior week. It was the seventh decline during the last eleven weeks.
Sales thus far in October were 1.1% below the average for September which was down 1.1% from August.
During the last five years there has been a 62% correlation between the year-to-year percent change in monthly chain store sales and the change in GAF retail sales. There has been a 18% correlation between the month-to-month change in the two sales series.

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/surveyw/@S2/@S2.HTM">BTM-UBSW (SA, 1977=100)</a></th>
<th scope="col">10/12/02</th>
<th scope="col">10/5/02</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
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<td class="firstcol">Total Weekly Retail Chain Store Sales</td>
<td>400.7</td>
<td>404.4</td>
<td>2.7%</td>
<td>2.1%</td>
<td>3.4%</td>
<td>6.7%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
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</body>
</html>

Total business inventories fell in August for the first monthly decline since April. Consensus expectations had been for a 0.2% gain. July figures were little revised. Retail inventories (3.9% YTD) fell led by a 0.5% decline in motor [...]

Business Inventory Decumulation Resumed

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/021014a.jpg" width="353">
The Future Inflation Gauge (FIG) published by the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) rose for the sixth consecutive month in September. Gains in the last four of those months have been notable.
The indicator&#39;s six-month growth rate of 25.9% was by far the strongest growth rate in the record of the index which dates back to 1994.
The monthly FIG has a mean lead of 11 months and a median lead of 9 months at inflation cycle turns .
The eight components of the FIG are commodity prices, employment measures, capacity measures, import prices, the yield spread, real estate and debt.
For more on ECRI visit their <a href="http://www.businesscycle.com">website</a>. 

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<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
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<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@EF/@EF12/@EF12.HTM">ECRI</a></th>
<th scope="col">Sept</th>
<th scope="col">Aug</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Future Inflation Gauge</td>
<td>113.3</td>
<td>109.0</td>
<td>13.5%</td>
<td>-14.2%</td>
<td>6.5%</td>
<td>3.5%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
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The Future Inflation Gauge (FIG) published by the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) rose for the sixth consecutive month in September. Gains in the last four of those months have been notable. The indicator's six-month growth [...]

ECRI Future Inflation Gauge Rose Further

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/021011b.jpg" width="353">
Retail sales fell about as expected last month following firm August gains that were revised slightly down. Year to date retail sales were up at a 3.3% annual rate through September.
Sales of motor vehicle and parts fell a sharp 4.8%. New vehicle purchases dropped 12.6% m/m to a 16.32 mil. unit annual rate.
Sales excluding motor vehicles and parts dealers rose 0.1% (4.6% AR, YTD), slightly below the consensus expectation.
Sales at furniture and home furnishing stores fell 0.4% (-0.8% AR, YTD), the fifth m/m decline this year. Clothing and accessories store sales also were weak, down 0.9% (-0.9% AR, YTD). General merchandise store sales fell as well, off 0.1% (4.5% AR, YTD).
Sales at gasoline stations were flat following a 0.7% August decline. Nonauto retail sales less gasoline rose 0.1% (4.1% AR, YTD).

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
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<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">Sept</th>
<th scope="col">Aug</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/usecon/@ED/@ED04/@ED0401/@ED0401.HTM">Retail Sales &amp; Food Services</a></td>
<td>-1.2%</td>
<td>0.6%</td>
<td>5.8%</td>
<td>3.8%</td>
<td>6.7%</td>
<td>8.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Excluding Autos</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>5.2%</td>
<td>3.4%</td>
<td>7.3%</td>
<td>7.4%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">

</table>
Producer Prices Up Slightly 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> October 11, 2002


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/021011a.jpg" width="353">
Finished producer prices rose slightly last month, as expected. Excluding food and energy prices also rose an expected 0.1%. Core producer prices were down 0.4% (AR) year to date.
Energy prices rose 0.9% (10.9% AR, YTD). Gasoline prices (74.0% AR, YTD) were strong for the third consecutive month and fuel oil prices also jumped m/m (72.1% AR, YTD). For a discussion by the Atlanta Fed of supplies in the oil market, go <a href="http://www.frbatlanta.org/invoke.cfm?objectid=AB4F965E-E58D-4568-BCA4889D6E63C374&amp;method=display">here</a>. 
Food prices fell for the fifth month in six (-2.6% AR, YTD).
Core finished consumer goods prices rose a slight 0.1% for the first gain in three months (-0.1% AR, YTD). Core nondurable goods prices rose slightly for the second month (1.0% AR, YTD). Consumer durables prices rose 0.1% (-1.3% AR, YTD). Capital goods prices were unchanged following two down months (-0.9% AR, YTD). 
Intermediate goods prices were strong owing to higher petroleum prices. Core intermediate prices rose just 0.1% (1.9% YTD, AR). 
Crude goods prices also were firm (18.7% AR, YTD) reflecting higher energy prices. Other commodities prices, reflected by the core crude price measure, fell but were up 14.6% (AR) year to date.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
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<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@E8/@E802/@E80201/@E80201.HTM">Producer Price Index</a></th>
<th scope="col">Sept</th>
<th scope="col">Aug</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Finished Goods</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
<td>-1.8%</td>
<td>2.0%</td>
<td>3.7%</td>
<td>1.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Core</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
<td>-0.1%</td>
<td>-0.4%</td>
<td>1.4%</td>
<td>1.3%</td>
<td>1.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Intermediate Goods</td>
<td>0.5%</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>-0.3%</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>4.9%</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Core</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>0.5%</td>
<td>-0.1%</td>
<td>2.6%</td>
<td>-0.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Crude Goods</td>
<td>0.6%</td>
<td>1.6%</td>
<td>0.9%</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>22.8%</td>
<td>1.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Core</td>
<td>-0.6%</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>8.2%</td>
<td>-9.9%</td>
<td>7.3%</td>
<td>-4.7%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Consumer Sentiment Down Sharply 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> October 11, 2002


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/021011c.jpg" width="353">
Consumer Sentiment fell sharply in mid-October according to the University of Michigan. Sentiment fell 1.7% (m/m) to its lowest since 1993.
The decline was much greater than consensus expectations and was the seventh this year.
Indexes of consumer expectations and current conditions both fell hard. 
The University of Michigan survey is not seasonally adjusted. It is based on a survey of 500 households.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@EF/@EF14/@EF1402/@EF1402.HTM">University of Michigan</a></th>
<th scope="col">Mid-Oct</th>
<th scope="col">Sept</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Consumer Sentiment</td>
<td>80.4</td>
<td>86.1</td>
<td>-2.8%</td>
<td>89.2</td>
<td>107.6</td>
<td>105.8</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

Retail sales fell about as expected last month following firm August gains that were revised slightly down. Year to date retail sales were up at a 3.3% annual rate through September. Sales of motor vehicle and parts fell a sharp 4.8%. [...]

Retail Sales Decline

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/021010a.jpg" width="353">
Prices for imported commodities surged last month by the most for any month since April. Consensus expectations were for a moderate 0.3% gain. August figures were little revised.
Petroleum import prices posted the largest monthly gain since April and are up 61.1% since December. So far in October the price of Arab Light crude oil has averaged $25.95/bbl versus $25.44 in September.
Nonpetroleum import prices rose 0.2% (0.3% YTD) after being unchanged in August. The foreign exchange value of the dollar is down 5.5% YTD despite recent gains, thus fueling sequential growth in nonoil import prices.
Most of the strength in import prices was limited to foods, feeds and beverages where last month prices rose 2.7% (5.5% YTD). Prices for imported capital goods fell 0.1% (-1.4% YTD), the sixth monthly decline this year. Nonauto consumer goods prices fell 0.1% (-0.6% YTD) and auto prices were unchanged (0.2% YTD).
Export prices rose 0.2% (1.1% YTD). Food and industrial supplies prices (9.4% YTD) were strong for the fourth consecutive month, up 3.9%, but other export prices were again weak or fell.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@E8/@E807/@E807.HTM">Import/Export Prices (NSA)</a></th>
<th scope="col">Sept</th>
<th scope="col">Aug</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Import - All Commodities</td>
<td>0.7%</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>-0.4%</td>
<td>-3.5%</td>
<td>6.5%</td>
<td>0.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Petroleum</td>
<td>6.0%</td>
<td>2.8%</td>
<td>11.3%</td>
<td>-17.2%</td>
<td>66.5%</td>
<td>34.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Nonpetroleum</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
<td>-0.8%</td>
<td>-1.5%</td>
<td>1.0%</td>
<td>-1.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Export - All Commodities</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>-0.3%</td>
<td>-0.8%</td>
<td>1.6%</td>
<td>-1.3%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Initial Claims for Jobless Insurance Down 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> October 10, 2002


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/021010b.jpg" width="353">
Initial claims for unemployment insurance were lower than expected in the latest week. The prior week was revised slightly higher.At 384,000 it was the first week in seven that claims were below 400,000.
The four-week moving average fell to 412,250, the first decline since early August.
Continuing claims for unemployment fell a slight 0.4% following four weeks of sequential gain. The prior week&#39;s levelwas revised down.
The weekly insured rate of unemployment fell slightly to 2.8%.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
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<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/WEEKLY/@W5/@W507/@W507.HTM">Unemployment Insurance (000s)</a></th>
<th scope="col">10/5/02</th>
<th scope="col">9/28/02</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Initial Claims</td>
<td>384.0</td>
<td>424.0</td>
<td>-15.4%</td>
<td>405.8</td>
<td>299.8</td>
<td>297.7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Continuing Claims</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>3,638</td>
<td>6.4%</td>
<td>3,021</td>
<td>2,114</td>
<td>2,186</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
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Prices for imported commodities surged last month by the most for any month since April. Consensus expectations were for a moderate 0.3% gain. August figures were little revised. Petroleum import prices posted the largest monthly gain [...]

Import Prices Rose Twice Expectations

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/021009a.jpg" width="353">
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) was again negative in August, the fifth negative reading this year. The reading pulled the three-month moving average to -0.13.
The index level measures deviations from zero. A zero value indicates that the economy is expanding at its historical trend rate of growth.
The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of economic activity. The indicators reflect activity in the following categories: production &amp; income, the labor market, personal consumption &amp; housing, mfg. &amp; trade sales, and inventories &amp; orders.
During the last ten years there has been a 72% correlation between the level of the National Activity Index and quarterly growth in real GDP.
For a complete discussion of the Chicago Fed&#39;s National Activity Index visit: <a href="http://www.chicagofed.org/economicresearchanddata/national/pdffiles/CFNAI_july2002.pdf">http://www.chicagofed.org/economicresearchanddata/national/pdffiles/CFNAI_july2002.pdf</a>

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">

</table>
<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/SURVEYS/@S5/@S503/@S503.HTM">Chicago Fed</a></th>
<th scope="col">Aug</th>
<th scope="col">July</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">CFNAI</td>
<td>-0.44</td>
<td>-0.04</td>
<td>-1.03</td>
<td>-1.09</td>
<td>-0.17</td>
<td>0.27</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
US Dollar Up, Commodity Prices Move Sideways 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> October 9, 2002


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/021009b.jpg" width="353">
The trade weighted value of the US dollar rose further through September and early October despite indications of a weak US economy. The dollar has garnered some support from the lack of clear indication that Fed ease is pending and from signs of economic weakness abroad.
The dollar&#39;s trade weighted value has recovered 3.3% since the weekly low set this past July.
Commodity prices have meandered recently. Increases in petroleum prices have been offset by lower prices for textiles. Metals and miscellaneous commodity prices have moved sideways during the last several weeks.

</body>
</html>

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) was again negative in August, the fifth negative reading this year. The reading pulled the three-month moving average to -0.13. The index level measures deviations from zero. A zero [...]

Chicago Fed National Activity Index Down Again in August

USD/EUR exchange rate uncoupling from interest rate differential

Widespread downgrading of 2025 GDP outlook

Trade and fiscal policy uncertainty has exploded with the new administration

Much lower US electricity costs gives it a competitive advantage

Wage growth slowing in the US and Euro area; elevated and sticky in the UK

Stagflation-lite: Blue Chip forecasts below-trend growth and elevated inflation

US policy gyrations boosting policy uncertainty worldwide

Expected tariff hikes have boosted inflation expectations

US and Japan ended 2024 on solid ground in contrast to Europe

US economy expected to outperform other major economies in 2025

Only modest evidence of AI-related surge in US productivity growth

Previous Trump tariffs fading. A boost from new tariffs ahead?

Heavy US manufacturing states underperforming while Sun Belt states outperforming

Rising long-term yields a global phenomenon

US financial market concerns shifting from growth to inflation

Economic activity is picking up in the US but remains lackluster abroad

Policy uncertainty has surged since the US national elections.

Recent turnaround in US economic surprises leading to increases in rate-cut expectations

The outlook has brightened in the US, while it has dimmed for other major economies

Headline US PCE inflation elevated by sticky services prices

US and global equity prices have recently diverged

US leading global upturn in economic surprises

Blue Chip forecasters look for further significant monetary easing apart from Japan

Recent rise in global supply chain pressures could augur a pickup in global inflation pressures

Underperforming German economy generating increased policy uncertainty relative to Europe and the US

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Real GDP eased 0.3% SAAR (+2.1% y/y) during the first quarter of 2025 after increasing 2.4% in Q4’24 and 3.1% in Q3’24. A 0.4% increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. It was the first decline since Q1 2022.

Foreign trade subtracted 4.83 percentage points from growth last quarter as imports surged 41.3% (13.4% y/y) ahead of tariffs, which began to come into effect in the first quarter. The rise followed a 1.9% decline in Q4’24. Exports rose 1.8% (3.0% y/y) after easing 0.2% in Q4. Inventories added 2.25 percentage points to growth after subtracting 0.84 percentage point from Q4 growth.

Real final sales to domestic purchasers grew 2.3% (2.9% y/y) in Q1 after rising 3.0% in Q4. Personal consumption expenditures rose 1.8% (3.1% y/y) following a 4.0% gain. Durable goods spending fell 3.4% (+5.3% y/y) after surging 12.4% in Q4. Motor vehicle purchases declined 11.1% (+5.5% y/y) after strengthening 19.7% in Q4. Spending on home furnishings & appliances gained 1.5% (6.1% y/y) following a 5.4% rise. Recreational goods & vehicle outlays rose 2.5% (7.0% y/y) last quarter after a 13.9% Q4 increase.

Nondurable goods outlays rose 2.7% (3.0% y/y) following 3.1% growth in Q4. Apparel spending increased 6.7% (2.5% y/y) following a 5.0% rise. Food & beverage buying gained 2.5% (2.3% y/y) after a 1.8% increase. Gasoline & fuel oil purchases increased 4.6% (3.4% y/y) after falling 2.0% in Q4.

Spending on services increased 2.4% last quarter (2.7% y/y) after a 3.0% gain. Outlays on housing & utilities increased 3.4% (1.8% y/y) after rising 1.1% in Q4. Health care expenditures rose 4.0% (4.8% y/y) following a 4.7% strengthening. Transportation outlays increased 5.3% (4.6% y/y) after a 3.7% rise while recreation spending rose 4.7% (2.8% y/y) following a 4.5% rise. Restaurant & hotel expenditures declined 2.1% (+0.5% y/y) following a 2.8% rise. Financial services expenditures rose 1.9% (2.0% y/y) after a 3.1% Q4 increase.

Business fixed investment increased 9.8% (3.6% y/y) following a 3.0% decline in Q4. Expenditures on structures rose 0.4% (-0.4% y/y) after a 2.9% increase. Expenditures on producers’ durable equipment jumped 22.5% (8.0% y/y) after falling 8.7%.  Outlays on information processing equipment soared 69.3% (18.9% y/y) following a 7.3% decline. Industrial equipment investment fell 1.4% (-0.3% y/y) after easing 0.9%. Intellectual property product spending rose 4.1% (1.8% y/y) following a 0.5% decline. 

Residential structures investment increased 1.3% (-0.1% y/y) in Q1 after a 5.5% Q4 rise.

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Government spending fell 1.5% (+2.4% y/y) after a 3.1% Q4 rise. Federal government expenditures declined 5.1% (+2.9% y/y) after rising 4.0% in Q4. National defense expenditures declined 8.0% (+4.0% y/y) after increasing 4.8% in Q4. State & local government spending rose 0.8% (2.1% y/y) following a 2.5% rise.

The GDP price index rose 3.7% (2.6% y/y) after increasing 2.3% in Q4. It was the largest increase since Q4’22. A 2.4% increase had been expected. The PCE chain price index increased 3.6% (2.5% y/y) following a 2.4% rise. The PCE price index excluding food and energy rose 3.5% (2.8% y/y) after increasing 2.6% in Q4. The business fixed investment price index rose 0.4% (1.8% y/y) after 1.5% rise. The residential price index strengthened 3.9% (3.2% y/y) after a 1.9% rise while the government price index increased 4.7% (2.8% y/y) following a 2.1% rise.

The GDP data can be found in Haver’s **USECON** and **USNA** databases. **USNA** contains virtually all of the Bureau of Economic Analysis detail in the national accounts. The Action Economics consensus estimates can be found in **AS1REPNA**.

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- Decline in GDP is first in three years.
- Foreign trade subtracts substantially ahead of tariffs.
- Domestic final demand growth weakens.
- Price index strengthens with higher core PCE prices.

U.S. GDP Unexpectedly Declines in Q1’25; Prices Strengthen

Michael J. Moran

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High-side readings on the price indexes for personal consumption expenditures in January and February caused some concern about emerging price pressure, especially with some policies of the Trump administration possibly adding to the upward force. However, March brought notable relief, with the headline price index falling slightly (-0.04%). A marked decline in energy prices was helpful (-2.7%), but core prices also were subdued, increasing less than 0.1%.  Year-over-year changes were still above the Fed’s target of 2%, but only barely so for the headline measure (2.3%). The core index backed away from the reading of 3.0% in February, but the latest reading of 2.7% was in line with observations in the past year, and still uncomfortably above target.

Consumers roused from a winter slumber in March, with nominal outlays increasing 0.7%. With inflation restrained, real outlays also posted a gain of 0.7%. Spending on durable gods stood out, with real outlays advancing 3.2%. Real outlays for both nondurable goods and services rose 0.4%, a solid pace. Signs of life were certainly welcome after an average decline of 0.1% in January and February. The March rebound left growth of 1.8% (annual rate) in the first quarter.

The brisk increase in spending in March was supported by a solid gain in personal income (0.5% in both nominal and real terms). Growth in wage income was firm at 0.5%, while proprietors’ income was robust with a gain of 1.8% (not annualized!). The farm sector led the advance in proprietors’ income, but the nonfarm sector also was strong (0.6%).

The personal income and consumption figures are available in Haver’s **USECON** database with detail in the **USNA** database. The Action Economics forecasts are in **AS1REPNA**.

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- Price pressure eases.
- Spending rebounds after two soft months.

Personal Income, Consumption, and Prices in March

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The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking home sales measure based on contract signings, from the National Association of Realtors rose 6.1% to 76.5 (-0.6% y/y) during March after rising a little-revised 2.1% in February. These changes followed a 4.6% January decline.

The rise in March sales occurred as the rate on a 30-year mortgage eased to an average 6.65% from 6.84% in February. This rate was well above a low of 2.68% averaged in December 2020.

Pending home sales were up in most regions of the country. Sales in the Midwest rose 4.9% (1.4% y/y) last month after rising 1.8% in February. Sales in the South increased 9.8% (-0.4% y/y) following a 5.8% February rise. Sales in the West improved 4.8% (-2.0% y/y) after falling 3.0% in February. Sales in the Northeast were off 0.5% (-3.0% y/y) in March after falling 0.9% in February.

The pending home sales index measures sales at the time the contract for the purchase of an existing home is signed, similar to the Census Bureau's new home sales data. In contrast, the National Association of Realtors' existing home sales data are recorded when the sale is closed, which is usually a couple of months after the sales contract has been signed. In developing the pending home sales index, the NAR found that the level of monthly sales contract activity leads the level of closed existing home sales by about two months.

The series dates back to 2001 and are available in Haver's **PREALTOR** database. Weekly mortgage interest rates from the Mortgage Bankers Association can be found in the **WEEKLY** database.

- Sales rise to highest level in four months.
- Strength is evident throughout most of country.

U.S. Pending Home Sales Surge in March

Sandy Batten

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The employment cost index (ECI) for civilian workers, arguably the most accurate measure of labor compensation in the United States, rose 0.9% q/q (3.6% y/y) in Q1, the same quarterly increase as in last year’s Q4, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The quarterly gains have fluctuated between 0.8% and 1.0% for the past six quarters. The Action Economics Forecast Survey had expected a 0.9% q/q increase and a 3.5% y/y gain.

Wages and salaries for civilian workers rose 0.8% q/q (3.5% y/y) in Q1, down from 1.0% q/q in Q4. This tied the Q3 2024 quarterly rise as the smallest increase since Q2 2021. It was also the smallest y/y increase since Q2 2021. Benefits increased by an outsized 1.2% q/q (3.9% y/y) in Q1 versus 0.8% q/q in Q4. This is the largest quarterly gain since Q2 2022. In general, employment cost gains remain above the pace observed prior to the pandemic but are slowing gradually.

Private industry workers’ compensation rose 0.8% q/q (3.4% y/y) in Q1, down from 0.9% q/q (3.6% y/y) in Q4. Wages and salaries for private industry workers increased 0.8% q/q (3.4% y/y) in Q1 versus 0.8% q/q (3.7% y/y) in Q4. The quarterly gain in Q1 tied that in Q3 2024 as the smallest increase since Q4 2020. Benefits for private industry workers jumped 1.2% q/q (3.6% y/y). the largest quarterly gain since Q2 2022. The acceleration in benefits in Q1 was primarily in service-producing industries.

Compensation in private goods-producing industries increased 1.0% q/q (3.2% y/y) in Q1, the largest quarterly gain in five quarters, versus a 0.7% q/q increase in Q4. Compensation in construction jumped 1.3% q/q, its largest quarterly increase since Q2 2022, up from a 0.6% q/q gain in Q4. Manufacturing compensation growth slowed to 0.7% q/q, its slowest quarterly advance since Q4 2020, from 0.8% q/q in Q4. Compensation in private service-producing industries increased 0.8% q/q (3.5% y/y), down slightly from a 0.9% q/q gain in Q4. Compensation in education and health services jumped 1.3% q/q, its largest quarterly gain since Q3 2023. In contrast, compensation in other services edged up 0.1% q/q in Q1, its smallest quarterly advance since before the pandemic.

The employment cost index measures the change in the cost of labor, free from the influence of employment shifts across occupations and industries. It is provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and is available in Haver’s **USECON** database. Consensus estimates from the Action Economics Forecast Survey are in Haver’s **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Compensation grew 0.9 q/q in Q1, the same pace as in Q4.
- Wage growth slowed to 0.8% q/q while benefits surged 1.2% q/q, their largest quarterly increase since Q2 2022.

Employment Cost Growth Steady in Q1 2025

Kathleen Stephansen, CBE

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The ADP National Employment Report indicated that nonfarm private sector payrolls rose 62,000 (1.4% y/y) during April after increasing 147,000 (1.4% y/y) during March, revised from 155,000. A 124,000 April rise in ADP employment had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.

Growth in median annual pay for "job stayers" eased to 4.5% y/y during April, from 4.6% y/y in March and from 4.7% y/y in the prior two months. Manufacturing sector pay grew 4.6% y/y during April, down from 4.8% y/y in March. Construction sector pay was unchanged at 4.7% y/y. Natural resource & mining sector pay grew 4.4% y/y. Financial sector pay rose 5.1% y/y, while education & health services pay rose 4.7% y/y. Leisure & hospitality pay also increased 4.7% y/y. Professional & business service sector pay increased 4.3% y/y as did trade, transportation & utilities pay. Information pay rose 4.1% y/y. Median annual pay for “job changers” rose 6.9% y/y after 6.7% y/y in March.

Small business hiring (less than 50 employees) rose 11,000 (0.6% y/y) after rising 18,000 (0.6% y/y) in March, revised down from 52,000. Employment at medium-sized firms (50-499,000 employees) rose 40,000 (1.1% y/y) after rising 43,000 (1.1% y/y). Large business hiring (500+ employees) rose 12,000 (3.4% y/y) in April, after rising 61,000 (3.6% y/y) in March, revised from 59,000.

Goods-producing employment rose 26,000 (1.3% y/y) in April, after rising 16,000 (1.3% y/y) during March, revised from 24,000. Manufacturing jobs rose 4,000 (-0.2% y/y) after rising 17,000 (-0.3% y/y) in March. The number of construction sector jobs rose 16,000 (3.4% y/y) in April, following a 2,000 (3.6% y/y) March increase, revised from 6,000. Natural resources & mining jobs rose 6,000 (2.8% y/y) in April after falling 3,000 (+1.9% y/y) in March.

The number of service-producing jobs rose 34,000 (1.4% y/y) during April, following a rise of 131,000 (1.4% y/y) in March. Professional & business services employment fell 2,000 (0.6% y/y) after rising 46,000 (0.7% y/y) in the prior month, revised from 57,000. Employment in the financial industry rose 20,000 (2.1% y/y) in April, after rising 38,000 (2.0% y/y) in March. Leisure and hospitality employment increased 27,000 (3.0% y/y), following a 23,000 (2.9% y/y) March increase, revised from 17,000. The number of education & health care jobs fell 23,000 (1.6% y/y) in April, following a 15,000 (1.8% y/y) rise in March, revised from 12,000. Information sector employment fell 8,000 (-0.1% y/y) after a rise of 3,000 (0.2% y/y) in March. The number of jobs in trade, transportation & utilities rose 21,000 (0.4% y/y) in April, after falling 4,000 (+0.4% y/y) in March, revised from a 6,000 fall. Employment in “other” services rose fell 1,000 (+3.2% y/y) following a 10,000 (3.4% y/y) rise in March, revised from 11,000.

By region, employment in the Northeast increased 10,000 (1.9% y/y) in April, following an increase of 95,000 (2.0% y/y) in March, revised from 89,000. Employment in the Midwest rose 42,000 (1.5% y/y) after a gain of 84,000 (1.4% y/y) in March, revised from 81,000. In the South, employment rose 3,000 (1.3% y/y) during April, after rising 10,000 (1.4% y/y) in March, revised from 27,000. In the West, employment rose 9,000 (0.6% y/y) after declining 43,000 (+0.6% y/y), revised from a 41,000 decline in March.

The ADP National Employment Report and Pay Insights data can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. Historical figures date back to January 2010 for private employment. Pay data date back to October 2020. The expectation figure is available in Haver's **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Employment increase is modest in both services & factory sectors.
- Wage growth for “job stayers” moderates.
- Small and medium-sized business employment slows.

Economy in Brief: October 2002

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