Global| Oct 10 2002Import Prices Rose Twice Expectations
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Prices for imported commodities surged last month by the most for any month since April. Consensus expectations were for a moderate 0.3% gain. August figures were little revised. Petroleum import prices posted the largest monthly gain [...]
Prices for imported commodities surged last month by the most for any month since April. Consensus expectations were for a moderate 0.3% gain. August figures were little revised.
Petroleum import prices posted the largest monthly gain since April and are up 61.1% since December. So far in October the price of Arab Light crude oil has averaged $25.95/bbl versus $25.44 in September.
Nonpetroleum import prices rose 0.2% (0.3% YTD) after being unchanged in August. The foreign exchange value of the dollar is down 5.5% YTD despite recent gains, thus fueling sequential growth in nonoil import prices.
Most of the strength in import prices was limited to foods, feeds and beverages where last month prices rose 2.7% (5.5% YTD). Prices for imported capital goods fell 0.1% (-1.4% YTD), the sixth monthly decline this year. Nonauto consumer goods prices fell 0.1% (-0.6% YTD) and auto prices were unchanged (0.2% YTD).
Export prices rose 0.2% (1.1% YTD). Food and industrial supplies prices (9.4% YTD) were strong for the fourth consecutive month, up 3.9%, but other export prices were again weak or fell.
| Import/Export Prices (NSA) | Sept | Aug | Y/Y | 2001 | 2000 | 1999 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Import - All Commodities | 0.7% | 0.3% | -0.4% | -3.5% | 6.5% | 0.9% |
| Petroleum | 6.0% | 2.8% | 11.3% | -17.2% | 66.5% | 34.2% |
| Nonpetroleum | 0.2% | 0.0% | -0.8% | -1.5% | 1.0% | -1.4% |
| Export - All Commodities | 0.2% | 0.2% | -0.3% | -0.8% | 1.6% | -1.3% |
by Tom Moeller October 10, 2002
Initial claims for unemployment insurance were lower than expected in the latest week. The prior week was revised slightly higher.At 384,000 it was the first week in seven that claims were below 400,000.
The four-week moving average fell to 412,250, the first decline since early August.
Continuing claims for unemployment fell a slight 0.4% following four weeks of sequential gain. The prior week's levelwas revised down.
The weekly insured rate of unemployment fell slightly to 2.8%.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 10/5/02 | 9/28/02 | Y/Y | 2001 | 2000 | 1999 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 384.0 | 424.0 | -15.4% | 405.8 | 299.8 | 297.7 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 3,638 | 6.4% | 3,021 | 2,114 | 2,186 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
