Global| Oct 15 2002Business Inventory Decumulation Resumed
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Total business inventories fell in August for the first monthly decline since April. Consensus expectations had been for a 0.2% gain. July figures were little revised. Retail inventories (3.9% YTD) fell led by a 0.5% decline in motor [...]
Total business inventories fell in August for the first monthly decline since April. Consensus expectations had been for a 0.2% gain. July figures were little revised.
Retail inventories (3.9% YTD) fell led by a 0.5% decline in motor vehicle inventories, the first month-to-month decline since November. Nonauto retail inventories (1.0% YTD) fell for the first time since March.
Inventories of furniture & home furnishings have been steadily accumulating (6.6% YTD) since September. Accumulation at apparel stores (1.8% YTD) has been moderate. At general merchandise stores (-1.1% YTD), inventories have continued to run off.
Overall business sales rose 0.2% (3.9% YTD) mostly on the strength of higher wholesale sales.
The inventory-to-sales ratio fell to 1.34, a new record low.
| Business Inventories | Aug | July | Y/Y | 2001 | 2000 | 1999 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | -0.1% | 0.4% | -3.6% | -6.3% | 5.6% | 5.4% |
| Retail | -0.3% | 0.8% | -0.2% | -5.0% | 6.1% | 7.7% |
| Retail excl. Autos | -0.1% | 0.4% | -0.1% | -2.0% | 4.1% | 5.7% |
| Wholesale | 0.2% | 0.6% | -4.2% | -5.5% | 6.6% | 6.0% |
| Manufacturing | -0.0% | -0.1% | -6.2% | -8.0% | 4.5% | 3.1% |
by Tom Moeller October 15, 2002
Chain store sales reversed all of the prior week's gain according to the BTM-UBSW survey. Sales fell 0.9% last week following a 0.8% gain the prior week. It was the seventh decline during the last eleven weeks.
Sales thus far in October were 1.1% below the average for September which was down 1.1% from August.
During the last five years there has been a 62% correlation between the year-to-year percent change in monthly chain store sales and the change in GAF retail sales. There has been a 18% correlation between the month-to-month change in the two sales series.
| BTM-UBSW (SA, 1977=100) | 10/12/02 | 10/5/02 | Y/Y | 2001 | 2000 | 1999 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Weekly Retail Chain Store Sales | 400.7 | 404.4 | 2.7% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 6.7% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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