Tom Moeller

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/040831a.jpg" width="353">
The average price for unleaded regular gasoline fell to $1.87 per gallon last week, down 9.6% from the May peak of $2.06.
Spot crude oil prices also fell. The price of West Texas Intermediate crude fell to $42.28 yesterday versus the mid-August high of $48.70 per barrel.
&quot;A Crude Crude Oil Calculation&quot; from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis is available <a href="http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/mt/20040801/cover.pdf"> here</a>.
Wholesale natural gas prices also eased to $5.05/mmbtu (+7.5% y/y) versus the May high of $6.68.
For the latest Short Term Energy Outlook from the US Department of Energy click <a href="http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/contents.html">here</a>.

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/daily/@D3/@D306/@D306.HTM">Energy Prices</a></th>
<th scope="col">08/30/04</th>
<th scope="col">12/31/03</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col"> 2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
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</thead>
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<td class="firstcol">US Retail Gasoline, Regular ($/Gal.)</td>
<td>$1.87</td>
<td>$1.48</td>
<td>6.9%</td>
<td>$1.56</td>
<td>$1.35</td>
<td>$1.42</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Domestic Spot Market Price: West Texas Intermediate ($/Barrel)</td>
<td>$42.28</td>
<td>$32.55</td>
<td>35.9%</td>
<td>$32.78</td>
<td>$31.23</td>
<td>$19.38</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
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The average price for unleaded regular gasoline fell to $1.87 per gallon last week, down 9.6% from the May peak of $2.06. Spot crude oil prices also fell. The price of West Texas Intermediate crude fell to $42.28 yesterday versus the [...]

Gasoline, Crude Oil & Natural Gas Prices Down

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/040831b.jpg" width="353">
The Conference Board&#146;s August Index of Consumer Confidence tumbled 7.1% to 98.2 following a downwardly revised 2.8% July gain. Consensus expectations had been for a more moderate decline to 103.0.
During the last twenty years there has been a 50% correlation between consumer confidence and the y/y change in real consumer spending.
The index of consumer expectations fell 8.3% (+1.8% y/y), reversing nearly all of the prior two months&#39; strong gains. The present situation index also fell a sharp 5.4% (+62.4% y/y).
Jobs were viewed as hard to get by 25.8% of respondents versus 25.7% in July. The percentage of respondents expecting more jobs in six months fell to 16.2%, below 16.8% last year and 18.3% in 2002.
The Conference Board&#146;s survey isconducted by a mailed questionnaire to 5,000 households and about 3,500 typically respond.

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@EF/@EF14/@EF1401/@EF1401.HTM"> Conference Board</a></th>
<th scope="col">August</th>
<th scope="col">July</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col"> 2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
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</thead>
<tbody>
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<td class="firstcol">Consumer Confidence</td>
<td>98.2</td>
<td>105.6</td>
<td>20.2%</td>
<td>79.8</td>
<td>96.6</td>
<td>106.6</td>
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The Conference Boards August Index of Consumer Confidence tumbled 7.1% to 98.2 following a downwardly revised 2.8% July gain. Consensus expectations had been for a more moderate decline to 103.0. During the last twenty years there [...]

Consumer Confidence Fell Sharply

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/040831d.jpg" width="353">
The Chicago Purchasing Managers Business Barometer for August fell hard to 57.3. The 11.4% m/m decline reversed nearly all of the 14.7% increase in July and left the index well off the May high of 68.0. Consensus expectations had been for a lesser decline to 60.0.
During the last ten years there has been a 73% correlation between the level of the Chicago Business Barometer and the three month change in factory sector industrial output. That correlation has risen to 85% during the last five years.
The new orders index slumped to 58.0 following the July advance to 68.7 from 56.8 in June. Production gave back half of its July gain with a drop to 61.8.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/040831e.jpg" width="353">
Bucking the other components, the employment index rose 5.5 points to 51.1. During the last twenty years there has been an 81% correlation between the level of this employment index and the three month change in factory sector employment.
The index of prices paid surged to 86.6, the highest level since 1988.

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@EF/@EF05/@EF05.HTM"> Chicago Purchasing Managers Index, SA</a></th>
<th scope="col"> Aug.</th>
<th scope="col">July</th>
<th scope="col">Aug.&nbsp;&#39;03</th>
<th scope="col"> 2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
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</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Business Barometer</td>
<td>57.3</td>
<td>64.7</td>
<td>57.9</td>
<td>54.7</td>
<td>52.7</td>
<td>41.4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; New Orders</td>
<td>58.0</td>
<td>68.7</td>
<td>61.8</td>
<td>58.0</td>
<td>56.2</td>
<td>42.3</td>
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<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Prices Paid</td>
<td>86.6</td>
<td>77.6</td>
<td>51.7</td>
<td>55.8</td>
<td>56.9</td>
<td>50.4</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Consumer Confidence Fell Sharply 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> August 31, 2004


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/040831b.jpg" width="353">
The Conference Board&#146;s August Index of Consumer Confidence tumbled 7.1% to 98.2 following a downwardly revised 2.8% July gain. Consensus expectations had been for a more moderate decline to 103.0.
During the last twenty years there has been a 50% correlation between consumer confidence and the y/y change in real consumer spending.
The index of consumer expectations fell 8.3% (+1.8% y/y), reversing nearly all of the prior two months&#39; strong gains. The present situation index also fell a sharp 5.4% (+62.4% y/y).
Jobs were viewed as hard to get by 25.8% of respondents versus 25.7% in July. The percentage of respondents expecting more jobs in six months fell to 16.2%, below 16.8% last year and 18.3% in 2002.
The Conference Board&#146;s survey isconducted by a mailed questionnaire to 5,000 households and about 3,500 typically respond.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@EF/@EF14/@EF1401/@EF1401.HTM"> Conference Board</a></th>
<th scope="col">August</th>
<th scope="col">July</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col"> 2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
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</thead>
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<td class="firstcol">Consumer Confidence</td>
<td>98.2</td>
<td>105.6</td>
<td>20.2%</td>
<td>79.8</td>
<td>96.6</td>
<td>106.6</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Gasoline, Crude Oil & Natural Gas Prices Down 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> August 31, 2004


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/040831a.jpg" width="353">
The average price for unleaded regular gasoline fell to $1.87 per gallon last week, down 9.6% from the May peak of $2.06.
Spot crude oil prices also fell. The price of West Texas Intermediate crude fell to $42.28 yesterday versus the mid-August high of $48.70 per barrel.
&quot;A Crude Crude Oil Calculation&quot; from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis is available <a href="http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/mt/20040801/cover.pdf"> here</a>.
Wholesale natural gas prices also eased to $5.05/mmbtu (+7.5% y/y) versus the May high of $6.68.
For the latest Short Term Energy Outlook from the US Department of Energy click <a href="http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/contents.html">here</a>.

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/daily/@D3/@D306/@D306.HTM">Energy Prices</a></th>
<th scope="col">08/30/04</th>
<th scope="col">12/31/03</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col"> 2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
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</thead>
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<td class="firstcol">US Retail Gasoline, Regular ($/Gal.)</td>
<td>$1.87</td>
<td>$1.48</td>
<td>6.9%</td>
<td>$1.56</td>
<td>$1.35</td>
<td>$1.42</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Domestic Spot Market Price: West Texas Intermediate ($/Barrel)</td>
<td>$42.28</td>
<td>$32.55</td>
<td>35.9%</td>
<td>$32.78</td>
<td>$31.23</td>
<td>$19.38</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
U.S. Chain Store Sales Slip 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> August 31, 2004


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/040831c.jpg" width="353">
Chain store sales slipped 0.2% last week and gave back all of the paltry 0.1% rise the week prior according to the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS.
For all of August, sales are even with the July average but are down 0.4% from the high in May.
During the last ten years there has been a 60% correlation between y/y change in chain store sales and the change in non-auto retail sales less gasoline.
The ICSC-UBS retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart. 

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"> <a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/surveyw/@S2/@S2.HTM"> ICSC-UBS (SA, 1977=100)</a></th>
<th scope="col">08/28/04</th>
<th scope="col">08/21/04</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col"> 2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
</tr>
</thead>
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<td class="firstcol">Total Weekly Retail Chain Store Sales</td>
<td>438.4</td>
<td>439.3</td>
<td>2.6%</td>
<td>2.9%</td>
<td>3.6%</td>
<td>2.1%</td>
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The Chicago Purchasing Managers Business Barometer for August fell hard to 57.3. The 11.4% m/m decline reversed nearly all of the 14.7% increase in July and left the index well off the May high of 68.0. Consensus expectations had been [...]

Chicago Purchasing Agents' Index Down

Louise Curley

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/040830b.jpg" width="353">
The Australian current account deficit increased to $12, 061 million Australian dollars in the second quarter from $10,293 million A$ in the first quarter. The deficit thus continues to run at close to 6% of GDP.
In spite of the high current account deficit, the exchange rate has begun to strengthen again after a brief decline from February to July of this year. The exchange rate had increased 63% from its low point of $.4900 US$ on September 24, 2001 to $.7979 on February 17th of this year. As of last Friday it was$.7040, up from $6980 on July 28th.
The current account has been offset by an almost equal capital inflow. <img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/040830c.jpg" width="353"> Other factors--errors and omissions and changes in reserves--have played a minor role in balancing the international accounts. As the two charts show, it is the capital account which currently appears to have the greater impact on the exchange rate. With the free flow of capital, a country can, for a time, experience a rising exchange rate in the face of a worsening current account. In the long run, however, continued current account deficits may lead to conditions that will discourage capital inflows and necessitate structural changes in the economy.
In the attached charts exchange rates, from the Haver data base, Daily, are plotted along with the quarterly current and capital and financial account. In the table below exchange rates from the Haver data base Australia are shown as of the end of the period.

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol">&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">Q2 04</th>
<th scope="col">&nbsp; Q1 04</th>
<th scope="col">&nbsp; Q4 03</th>
<th scope="col">Q3&nbsp;03</th>
<th scope="col">2003&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">&nbsp; 2002&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">&nbsp; 2001&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">&nbsp;2000</th>
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</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Balance of Payments (mil A$)</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Current Account</td>
<td>-12016</td>
<td>-10293</td>
<td>-12186</td>
<td>-12932</td>
<td>-46046</td>
<td>-300517</td>
<td>-16099</td>
<td>-26225</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Capital and Financial Account</td>
<td>12047</td>
<td>10667</td>
<td>12670</td>
<td>12879</td>
<td>46601</td>
<td>31674</td>
<td>16615</td>
<td>25419</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td></td>
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<td class="firstcol">Exchange Rate US$/A$ (EOP)</td>
<td>0.6889</td>
<td>0.7589</td>
<td>0.7360</td>
<td>0.6801</td>
<td>0.7500</td>
<td>0.5662</td>
<td>0.5106</td>
<td>0.5540</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
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The Australian current account deficit increased to $12, 061 million Australian dollars in the second quarter from $10,293 million A$ in the first quarter. The deficit thus continues to run at close to 6% of GDP. In spite of the high [...]

Australia's Capital Inflows Continue to Support the Australian Dollar

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/040830a.jpg" width="353">
Personal income grew much less than expected last month. The 0.1% July gain was the weakest in nearly two years, followed a slim 0.2% rise in June and fell short of Consensus expectations for a 0.5% increase.
A 0.5% decline (+6.6% y/y) in proprietors&#39; income was the source of much of last month&#39;s disappointment and that was driven by a 5.4% drop in farmers&#39; income. Wages &amp; salaries rebounded 0.4% (+4.4% y/y) from the slight decline in June. The rebound was paced by a 0.6% (2.7% y/y) increase in manufacturing wages.
Personal disposable income rose a slight 0.1% (4.3% y/y). After accounting for a 2.4% y/y rise in prices, real disposable income rose a much reduced 1.8% y/y.
Consumer spending jumped 0.8% following an upwardly revised 0.2% June decline. Higher light vehicle sales pulled durables up 4.1%. Non-durable goods sales rose a slight 0.2%, held back by lower gasoline prices, and services spending rose 0.4% (5.1% y/y). 
The PCE chain price index fell slightly. Prices less food &amp; energy also were weak, unchanged m/m (1.5% y/y) due to another decline in durables prices (-0.4% m/m, -1.9% y/y). Services prices rose a moderate 0.2% (2.5% y/y). &quot;A Crude Crude Oil Calculation&quot; from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis is available <a href="http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/mt/20040801/cover.pdf"> here</a>.
The savings rate fell to 0.6% and prior months&#39; figures were revised down.

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@E7/@E711/@E71102/@E71102.HTM"> Disposition of Personal Income</a></th>
<th scope="col">July</th>
<th scope="col">June</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col"> 2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Personal Income</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>4.9%</td>
<td>3.2%</td>
<td>1.8%</td>
<td>3.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Personal Consumption</td>
<td>0.8%</td>
<td>-0.2%</td>
<td>5.9%</td>
<td>5.2%</td>
<td>4.6%</td>
<td>4.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Savings Rate</td>
<td>0.6%</td>
<td>1.3%</td>
<td>2.2%</td>
<td>1.4%</td>
<td>2.0%</td>
<td>1.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">PCE Chain Price Index</td>
<td>-0.0%</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>2.4%</td>
<td>1.9%</td>
<td>1.4%</td>
<td>2.1%</td>
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Personal income grew much less than expected last month. The 0.1% July gain was the weakest in nearly two years, followed a slim 0.2% rise in June and fell short of Consensus expectations for a 0.5% increase. A 0.5% decline (+6.6% [...]

U.S. Personal Income Sluggish. Farmers' Income Fell, Wages OK

Carol Stone, CBE

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/040827d.jpg" width="353">
Unemployment increased in Japan in July, according to data reported today by the Ministry of Public Management, Home Affairs, Posts and Telecommunications. The unemployment rate rose from 4.6% in June to 4.9%, the highest in five months. Headline writers in the press declared that the economic recovery in Japan was faltering.
Indeed, the trajectory of labor market indicators is not unambiguously upward. Employment is down from an April peak and also lower than its year-ago amount. Even so, the number of people employed rose 90,000 in July and remains well above a recent trough in November. The Japanese &quot;recovery&quot; is proceeding in fits and starts, making any single month&#39;s performance hard to put into a trend or context.
At the same time, the rise in unemployment occurred because of an increase in the labor force. After falling sharply for two months, the total of those employed and unemployed in July regained about half its May-June loss. It is seen in the graph that the labor force has shrunk persistently since the middle of 1998. The July snapback reversed the previous month&#39;s 0.3% fall in labor force participation as a percent of the working-age population. Such developments, if sustained, can suggest improved expectations among potential workers who begin to hunt for new jobs they believe might now be available; this is a sign of recovery even as it keeps the unemployment rate from decreasing until actual hiring catches up.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">Seasonally Adjusted, Millions</th>
<th scope="col">July 2004</th>
<th scope="col">June 2004</th>
<th scope="col">May 2004</th>
<th scope="col">July 2003</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Employment</td>
<td>63.24</td>
<td>63.15</td>
<td>63.53</td>
<td>63.33</td>
<td>63.17</td>
<td>63.30</td>
<td>64.10</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Unemployment</td>
<td>3.27</td>
<td>3.05</td>
<td>3.05</td>
<td>3.52</td>
<td>3.50</td>
<td>3.59</td>
<td>3.40</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Labor Force*</td>
<td>66.51</td>
<td>66.20</td>
<td>66.58</td>
<td>66.85</td>
<td>66.67</td>
<td>66.89</td>
<td>67.50</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Population, Age 15+</td>
<td>109.84</td>
<td>109.82</td>
<td>109.95</td>
<td>109.68</td>
<td>109.62</td>
<td>109.27</td>
<td>108.86</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Participation Rate* (%)</td>
<td>60.6%</td>
<td>60.3%</td>
<td>60.6%</td>
<td>61.0%</td>
<td>60.8%</td>
<td>61.2%</td>
<td>62.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Unemployment Rate ** (%)</td>
<td>4.9%</td>
<td>4.6%</td>
<td>4.6%</td>
<td>5.3%</td>
<td>5.3%</td>
<td>5.4%</td>
<td>5.0%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

Unemployment increased in Japan in July, according to data reported today by the Ministry of Public Management, Home Affairs, Posts and Telecommunications. The unemployment rate rose from 4.6% in June to 4.9%, the highest in five [...]

Japanese Unemployment Rises in July, But So Does Employment; Signs of Recovery Ambiguous

PMIs showing widespread revival of global economy

Crude oil price has returned to pre-conflict level but traffic through Hormuz still subpar

Surging orders for computers and electronics propelling durable goods orders

Next year's inflation forecasts are on the rise and above target

Disrupted global supply chains placing upward pressure on US goods prices

Construction of data centers has overtaken transportation construction in US

Elevated energy prices putting intense upward pressure on input prices around the globe

US is big leader in global surge in private AI investment

Larger-than-usual income tax refunds this year are supporting consumer spending

Sharply rising share of AI-related jobs

Inflationary impact of surge in oil prices larger in Europe than in the US

Futures market thinks the price of oil will recede significantly over the next six months

Recent pickup in US defense orders could help support overall growth ahead

Cost of transporting crude oil has soared to series high

Market-based inflation expectations have not yet reflected recent surge in oil prices

Global equity markets are fearing a major economic disruption from soaring oil prices

Is recent drop in sentiment signaling softer growth ahead?

With the Iran conflict, geopolitical risk has soared to alarming levels

Soaring AI-related investment in US underpinning strong contribution of business spending to overall growth

AI-related outperformance of IP in Advanced Asia ex Japan

Resilient US economy pushing up Blue Chip 2026 outlook

US and China big leaders in adoption of AI models

Robust US demand for advanced technology products

China's export growth rotating away from the US

More pronounced upward revisions in countries more exposed to AI investment

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Andrew Cates

**Growth Surprises Continue to Underpin Equity Resilience**
Global equity markets have proved remarkably resilient in recent weeks, shrugging off intermittent bouts of geopolitical and policy uncertainty to grind higher. Chart 1 below helps explain why: it tracks the relationship between global growth-versus-inflation surprises and world equity markets, and on that measure the recent run of global growth data has continued to surprise on the upside relative to inflation outturns — a combination that has historically been supportive for risk assets. Whether that resilience persists will depend on whether the growth-surprise advantage evident in the chart below can be sustained in the face of the inflationary pressures explored below.

260709Z1.jpg

**PMIs Confirm a Broadly Solid Global Expansion**
This week's final composite PMI readings for June reinforced the broader impression of resilient global growth. As chart 2 below shows, most major economies posted readings comfortably in expansionary territory, with India continuing to lead the pack and the US not far behind. Even the laggards in the sample are hovering close to the expansion threshold rather than falling decisively below it, suggesting stabilisation rather than outright contraction (and with the UK a notable exception).

260709Z2.jpg

**Inflation Surprises Are Creeping Back, and Bond Yields Are Taking Notice**
The US growth picture painted by Haver's surprise indices broadly echoes the message from the global PMI data. Chart 3 below shows the combined growth-and-inflation surprise index drifting higher this week, and closer inspection suggests growth is doing most of that work, with activity data continuing to outperform expectations. That is, on the face of it, good news. But it has not stopped bond markets from taking notice: short-dated Treasury yields have remained elevated in recent weeks, as stronger growth keeps alive the possibility that the Federal Reserve holds rates higher for longer or even lifts them in coming weeks.

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**Supply Chains Are Tightening** 
Latest data show that global supply chain pressures tightened by less in June than they had the month before, likely reflecting the easing of Middle East tensions through much of the period. Chart 4 below shows that pressures troughed in the middle of last year and have been building gradually since, though June's slower pace of tightening suggests that easing had started to feed through. Still, today's flare-up threatens to undo that improvement, particularly if it affects shipping routes or energy flows through the region once again.

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**Extreme Weather: An Old Supply-Side Risk Returns**
Geopolitics is not the only source of supply-side risk currently in play. Large parts of Europe have been gripped this week by another intense and prolonged heatwave, with temperatures in several major cities running well above seasonal norms. Extreme heat of this kind carries real economic costs: it depresses labour productivity, particularly in outdoor and manufacturing-adjacent sectors, strains electricity grids as air-conditioning demand spikes, and can disrupt agricultural output and river-based transport when water levels fall. Episodes like this have become more frequent in recent years, and while any single heatwave rarely shifts the macro picture on its own, the cumulative effect of more frequent and more severe weather events could start showing up in productivity and inflation data across the advanced economies. It is a reminder that the supply side of the global economy faces structural as well as cyclical challenges, and that climate-related disruption deserves a permanent place alongside geopolitics and demographics in any assessment of medium-term inflation risk.

260709Z5.jpg

**AI Investment: The Other Side of the Supply Equation**
Set against these supply-side headwinds is a genuinely positive structural development: the extraordinary scale of private investment now flowing into artificial intelligence. Chart 6 below shows just how sharply that investment has grown in recent years, reaching a fresh high last year. If even a fraction of that investment translates into genuine productivity gains, it could provide a meaningful long-run offset to the energy, climate and geopolitical constraints highlighted elsewhere in this week's charts. The scale of the bet now being placed on AI is large enough that it is beginning to show up in aggregate investment and capital expenditure data across the advanced economies, and it is likely to remain one of the defining structural themes shaping the global growth outlook over the remainder of this decade.

260709Z6.jpg

Global markets head into this week’s closing stages digesting a mixed set of signals. Last week's US non-farm payrolls report undershot expectations, adding to questions about the durability of the US labour market even as broader activity data have continued to hold up well. Compounding that picture, news broke today of renewed instability in the Middle East, reintroducing a geopolitical risk premium into markets just as investors had begun to look past it. Global equity markets have nonetheless remained resilient, continuing to track the broadly encouraging tone of incoming activity data (chart 1). That resilience was reinforced by a solid set of global PMIs across most major economies over the past few days (chart 2). Haver's surprise indices tell a similar story of positive growth momentum in the US, but with an important caveat: incoming inflation data have also been surprising to the upside, driven largely by higher oil prices (chart 3). These inflation risks could persist moreover, as global supply chain pressures have picked up in recent months and today's flare-up in the Middle East threatens to add further strain (chart 4). The world economy remains vulnerable to other supply-side shocks too, such as the extreme heat gripping much of Europe this week (chart 5). Still, on the other side of the ledger the enormous scale of investment now flowing into artificial intelligence could be a genuine source of supply-side potential (chart 6).

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Charts of the Week: Growth Holds Firm

Robert Brusca

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Manufacturing output in the countries of the European Monetary Union continues to underperform. The median change for the 11 countries reporting on the table is a 0.5% decline in May following a 0.3% increase in April. However, only 41.7% of the reporters are accelerating in May, compared to 25% in April, although in March over half of the reporters had showed some acceleration, with output at 61.5%.

In May, of these eleven early reporters, seven showed month-to-month declines in output. This compares to four showing declines in April and four showing declines in March.

**Sequential trends**
Over 12 months, output is declining in four of these eleven countries: Germany, Luxembourg, Ireland, and Portugal. Over six months, output declines in five of the eleven countries. Over three months, output declines in four of the eleven countries. Over these broader sequential periods, output is increasing in most cases; only one country, Ireland, shows consistent declines in output over three months, six months, and 12 months. However, among EMU countries, only Italy shows output expanding on all three timelines, although Sweden, an EU member country, also shows output increasing in all three periods.

Amid the output weakness in May, the quarter-to-date calculation for industrial production growth is also broadly weak. In May, seven of the eleven quarter-to-date changes in industrial production are negative. Positive results, increases in the quarter-to-date, are registered by Germany, Luxembourg, Greece, and Portugal.

The ranking of the year-over-year growth rates shows seven countries with output growth rate rankings below 50%, marking them as below their respective medians. The comparisons for output growth are taken back to 2006, a period of about 20 years.

Four EMU countries rank above their twenty-year medians: France, Italy, Luxembourg, and Greece.

The snapshot of industry in the monetary union is consistent, showing little momentum, little strength, and relatively low rankings for current growth rates; only a minority of reporters show an acceleration in growth in May compared to April. With the situation in the Strait of Hormuz deteriorating again, the outlook for industrial production has to remain guarded.

260710.jpg

Europe

Industrial Sector Remains Under Pressure in EMU

Winnie Tapasanun

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Existing home sales unexpectedly fell 2.4% m/m (+2.8% y/y) to 4.09 million units (SAAR) in June, the first monthly decline since March, following an upwardly revised 3.7% increase to 4.19 million in May (previously +3.2%; 4.17 mil.), according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The Action Economics Forecast Survey had expected June sales of 4.20 million units. Sales remained 36.4% below a high of 6.43 million in January 2022 and 38.0% below a peak of 6.60 million in January 2021. The June decline coincided with a rise in the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate to 6.49% in June, the highest since August 2025, after increasing to 6.44% in May, according to Freddie Mac. The sales figures are based on closings of sales contracts signed over the past couple of months.

Existing single-family home sales fell 2.4% (+3.3% y/y) to 3.73 million units in June, the first m/m fall in three months, following a 4.1% gain to 3.82 million in May, remaining 34.6% below a high of 5.70 million in January 2022. Sales of condos and co-ops decreased 2.7% (-2.7% y/y) to 360,000 in June, the lowest level since May 2025, after being unchanged m/m for the third successive month at 370,000, remaining 50.7% below a high of 730,000 in January 2022.

Regionally, June existing home sales declined m/m in all regions except the Northeast. Sales in the South dropped 3.6% (+3.8% y/y) to 1.89 million in June, a three-month low, after a 3.2% rise in May, and sales in the Midwest slid 3.0% (+2.1% y/y) to 980,000 following a 7.4% May advance; both posted the first m/m decrease in three months. Sales in the West fell 1.3% (+2.8% y/y) to 740,000, the lowest level since January, after being flat m/m at 750,000 in May. In contrast, sales in the Northeast increased 2.1% (0.0% y/y) to 480,000 after a 4.4% May gain. Notably, the South remained the dominant region, accounting for 46.2% of total U.S. existing home sales.

The median price of all existing homes (NSA) rose 2.2% (1.8% y/y) to $440,600 in June, the fifth consecutive m/m rise, on top of an upwardly revised 3.3% increase to $431,200 in May ($429,300 previously). Prices were 22.1% above a low of $360,800 in January 2023. The median price of an existing single-family home climbed 2.3% (1.8% y/y) to $446,400 in June, the fifth straight m/m increase, after a 3.4% advance to $436,400 in May. The median price of condos and co-ops, up for the sixth time in seven months, grew 0.6% (1.6% y/y) to $380,000 following a 1.0% May gain to $377,800. Regionally, overall prices rose m/m and y/y in June in the Northeast (+5.6%; +3.9% y/y), Midwest (+2.1%; +2.7% y/y), South (+1.0%; +0.9% y/y), and West (+0.8%; +0.9% y/y). All these price series were at their record highs.

Inventories of homes for sale fell m/m in June for the first time since December. The number of existing homes for sale (NSA) declined 0.6% (+1.3% y/y) to 1.56 million units following an upwardly revised 4.7% May rise to 1.57 million (the highest level since November 2019). The supply of homes on the market at the current selling rate (NSA) increased to 4.6 months in June from 4.5 months in May and April, matching the highest level since August 2025. A record low in supply of 1.6 months was in January 2022.

The data on existing home sales, prices and affordability are compiled by the National Association of Realtors. The data on single-family home sales extend back to February 1968. Total sales and price data and regional sales can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. Regional price and affordability data and national inventory data are available in the **REALTOR** database. Mortgage interest rates can be found in the **WEEKLY** database. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, reported in the **AS1REPNA** database.

260709H57.jpg

260709I57.jpg

- June sales -2.4% m/m to 4.09 mil., first drop in three mths.; +2.8% y/y, third straight y/y rise.
- Sales m/m down in the South (-3.6%), Midwest (-3.0%), and West (-1.3%); up in the Northeast (+2.1%).
- Sales y/y up in all regions except the Northeast w/ a flat reading.
- Median sales price +2.2% (+1.8% y/y) to $440,600, a record high.
- Unsold inventory -0.6% (+1.3% y/y) to 1.56 mil. units, first m/m decline since Dec.; 4.6 months' supply, highest since Aug. ’25.

U.S. Existing Home Sales Unexpectedly Fall in June from a Five-Month High

Kathleen Stephansen, CBE

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Initial claims for unemployment insurance declined 2,000 to 215,000 in the week ending July 4, from 217,000 in the week ending June 27, revised from 215,000. The four-week average was 218,750 in the July 4 week, down from 222,500 in the week ending June 27. The Action Economics/Haver Analytics Survey looked for 218,000 claims to have been filed. 

The total number of unemployment insurance beneficiaries—also known as “continuing claims”—rose by 8,000 to 1.814 million in the week ending June 27, from 1.806 million in the week ending June 20, revised from 1.814 million. The four-week moving average rose to 1.808 million in the June 27 week from 1.801 million in the June 20 week. The insured unemployment rate was unchanged at 1.2% in the week of June 27. Except for a one-week dip to 1.1% in the week of April 25, the insured unemployment rate has been at 1.2% since the week of November 29, 2025.

The insured unemployment rate varied greatly across individual states and territories. In the week ending June 20, the highest unemployment rates were in Washington (2.03%), New Jersey (2.11%), Minnesota (2.15%), and Puerto Rico (2.45%). The lowest rates were in South Dakota (0.28%), Florida (0.35%), Alabama and North Carolina (both 0.41%), Louisiana (0.42%), and Arkansas (0.49%). Rates in other notable states include California (1.88%), Pennsylvania (1.63%), Illinois (1.58%), New York (1.52%), and Texas (1.12%). These state data are not seasonally adjusted.

Data on weekly unemployment claims are from the Department of Labor itself, not the Bureau of Labor Statistics. They begin in 1967 and are contained in Haver’s **WEEKLY** database and summarized monthly in **USECON**. Data for individual states are in **REGIONW** back to December 1986.

260709C1.jpg

260709D1.jpg

- New claims declined by 2,000 to 215,000 in the week ending July 4.
- Continuing claims rose by 8,000 to 1.814 million in the week ending June 27.
- The insured unemployment rate was unchanged at 1.2% in the week of June 27.

U.S. Initial Unemployment Claims Declined in the Week of July 4

260709E.jpg

The German trade surplus surged in May to €19.1 billion from €14.7 billion in April. Exports rose by 0.9% in May while imports fell by 2.5%, creating a jump in the surplus month-to-month. In April, exports increased by 0.8% while imports rose by 1.1%.

Details on exports and imports lag by one month. In April, exports for motor vehicles and consumer goods declined, while exports of capital goods and other exports rose. On the import side, there were increases in imports ranging from 2.8% to 4.3% month-to-month across capital goods, motor vehicles, and consumer goods, but for the catch-all category ‘other’ imports fell by 2.7% month-to-month.

Flows adjusted for inflation showed an increase in exports of 0.4% in May while real imports fell by 3.3%. In April, real exports were flat while real imports fell by 0.2%.

The sequential behavior of real exports and real imports show independent activity. Imports log a clear weakening, rising 0.1% over 12 months, falling at a 5% annual rate over six months, and then falling at a 10.3% annual rate over three months. On the export side, real exports rose by 2.6% over 12 months, accelerated to a 7.2% annual rate over six months, but over three months have pulled back and fallen at a 1.6% annual rate. However, export growth still exceeds import growth over each of these horizons: 12 months, six months, and three months.

Trade trends paint a darkening picture of the German economy, with imports weak in real terms and trending even weaker, while activity on the export side of the equation pops over 12 months and six months but takes a hit over three months.

260709.jpg

The situation in the Strait of Hormuz continues to muddy the waters for the future. Passage through the strait has been sharply stopped, stabilized, revived, and now is back to being destabilized. That makes the strait a major uncertainty zone; it's hard to tell how these effects are going to play out over the coming months for German trade results and everyone else's. The deterioration of conditions in the Strait of Hormuz is now unknowable because Iran has decided to start shooting at ships, further destabilizing the outlook.

Economy in Brief

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Gasoline, Crude Oil & Natural Gas Prices Down

Consumer Confidence Fell Sharply

Chicago Purchasing Agents' Index Down

Australia's Capital Inflows Continue to Support the Australian Dollar

U.S. Personal Income Sluggish. Farmers' Income Fell, Wages OK

U.S. Personal Income Sluggish. Farmers' Income Fell, Wages OK

Japanese Unemployment Rises in July, But So Does Employment; Signs of Recovery Ambiguous

Japanese Unemployment Rises in July, But So Does Employment; Signs of Recovery Ambiguous