Tom Moeller

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/041207a.jpg" width="353">
Non-farm labor productivity growth last quarter was little revised at 1.8% and about matched Consensus expectations for 2.0% growth.
Growth in hours worked by all persons (employment times hours) was revised up to 2.4% (1.5% y/y) from 2.1% but output growth also was revised up to 4.2% (4.7% y/y), the same as in 2Q.
Unit labor costs grew 1.8% as compensation growth was left unchanged at 3.6% (4.0% y/y).
Productivity in the manufacturing sector was revised up to 4.6% (4.7% y/y) from 4.3%. Unit labor cost growth in the factory sector was revised down slightly to no change (-1.5% y/y).<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/041207b.jpg" width="353">
In the nonfinancial corporate sector productivity growth accelerated to 4.2% (3.1% y/y) from 3.3% in 2Q. This is the first release of figures for 3Q. Output, a figure derived from the income side of the National Income &amp; Product Accounts, grew at a 5.6% (4.8% y/y) rate versus 4.2% growth in 2Q. Hours worked grew at a 1.3% rate (1.7% y/y).
During the last ten years there has been an 86% (inverse) correlation between y/y growth in unit labor costs in the nonfinancial corporate sector and profit growth.
From The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago is <a href="http://www.chicagofed.org/publications/economicperspectives/ep_1qtr2004_part4_fernald_ramnath.pdf"> this</a> paper titled &quot;The acceleration in U.S. total factor productivity after 1995: The role of information technology.&quot;

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@EC/@EC02/@EC02.HTM">Non-farm Business Sector</a> (SAAR)</th>
<th scope="col">3Q &#39;04 (Revised)</th>
<th scope="col">3Q &#39;04 (Prelim.)</th>
<th scope="col">2Q &#39;04</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Output per Hour</td>
<td>1.8%</td>
<td>1.9%</td>
<td>3.9%</td>
<td>3.1%</td>
<td>4.4%</td>
<td>4.4%</td>
<td>2.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Compensation</td>
<td>3.6%</td>
<td>3.6%</td>
<td>5.9%</td>
<td>4.0%</td>
<td>4.1%</td>
<td>3.3%</td>
<td>4.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Unit Labor Costs</td>
<td>1.8%</td>
<td>1.6%</td>
<td>1.9%</td>
<td>0.8%</td>
<td>-0.4%</td>
<td>-1.1%</td>
<td>1.5%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Chain Store Sales Slumped Further 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> December 7, 2004


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/041207c.jpg" width="353">
Chain store sales following Thanksgiving week slumped another 1.7% on top of the 1.5% skid during the Holiday period, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS.
The decline pulled November sales just 0.1% ahead of October and sales began December down 2.5% m/m.
The leading indicator of chain store sales from ICSC fell by 0.5% in the latest week for the third time in the last four periods.
During the last ten years there has been a 60% correlation between y/y change in chain store sales and the change in non-auto retail sales less gasoline.
The ICSC-UBS retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/surveyw/@S2/@S2.HTM">ICSC-UBS (SA, 1977=100)</a></th>
<th scope="col">12/04/04</th>
<th scope="col">11/27/04</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Total Weekly Chain Store Sales</td>
<td>425.6</td>
<td>432.9</td>
<td>3.3%</td>
<td>2.9%</td>
<td>3.6%</td>
<td>2.1%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Challenger Layoff Count Rose Further 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> December 7, 2004


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/041207f.jpg" width="353">
Job cut announcements reported in November rose 2.6% from October and 5.1% from a year ago according to Challenger, Gray &amp; Christmas. The monthly tally of 104,530 pulled the three month moving average of job cut announcements to 104,744 (-9.7% y/y), the highest this year.
During the last ten years there has been an 86% (inverse) correlation between the three month moving average of announced job cuts and the three month change payroll employment.
Job cut announcements differ from layoffs. Many are achieved through attrition, early retirement or just never occur.
Job cut announcements in the automotive industry more than doubled and rose 10 fold in E-Commerce &amp; Dot com to the highest level since January 2003. Government layoffs also surged and layoffs rose in insurance, electronics, services, telecommunication, transportation and energy.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/SURVEYS/@S3/@S301/@S301.HTM">Challenger, Gray &amp; Christmas</a></th>
<th scope="col">Nov</th>
<th scope="col">Oct</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Announced Job Cuts</td>
<td>104,530</td>
<td>101,840</td>
<td>5.1%</td>
<td>1,236,426</td>
<td>1,431,052</td>
<td>1,956,876</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
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Non-farm labor productivity growth last quarter was little revised at 1.8% and about matched Consensus expectations for 2.0% growth. Growth in hours worked by all persons (employment times hours) was revised up to 2.4% (1.5% y/y) from [...]

U.S. Productivity Growth Little Revised for 3Q

Louise Curley

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/041206b.jpg" width="353">
German data on new orders and sales are reported only in index form. The index of the volume of German new orders for manufacturing increased 1.09% in October from September, after a 0.78% rise in September. A decline of 1.23% in foreign orders, due, no doubt, to the rising euro, was offset by a 3.29% rise in domestic orders. .The order data reported for East and West Germany show that new orders in East Germany continue to show better growth than in West Germany, however, there are no data on the actual levels of orders. It is safe to assume that the levels in East Germany are still well below those in the West.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/041206c.jpg" width="353">. Indexes for the volume of total manufacturing sales are available only on a non seasonally adjusted basis. Since month-to-month changes tend to be erratic, year-over-year changes are more meaningful. Total manufacturing sales in October were 1.89% above October 2003. Domestic sales were flat and foreign sales were up 4.46% over a year ago.
The order data suggest an improvement in domestic sales and a weakening in foreign sales as shown in the two attached charts..

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
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<th scope="col" class="firstcol">2000 Prices, 2000=100 SA except where noted</th>
<th scope="col">Oct 04</th>
<th scope="col">Sep 04</th>
<th scope="col">Oct 03</th>
<th scope="col">M/M %&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y %&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">&nbsp;2003&nbsp;&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">&nbsp;2002&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">&nbsp; 2001&nbsp; &nbsp;</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Manufacturing New Orders&nbsp;</td>
<td>103.9</td>
<td>102.8</td>
<td>100.1</td>
<td>1.07</td>
<td>3.80</td>
<td>97.8</td>
<td>97.2</td>
<td>97.4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp; Domestic</td>
<td>97.3</td>
<td>94.2</td>
<td>96.0</td>
<td>3.29</td>
<td>1.35</td>
<td>93.4</td>
<td>93.5</td>
<td>96.7</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp; Foreign</td>
<td>112.2</td>
<td>113.5</td>
<td>105.3</td>
<td>-1.23</td>
<td>6.56</td>
<td>103.3</td>
<td>101.9</td>
<td>98.3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp; West Germany</td>
<td>102.1</td>
<td>101.0</td>
<td>98.5</td>
<td>1.09</td>
<td>3.65</td>
<td>96.4</td>
<td>96.3</td>
<td>96.9</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; East Germany</td>
<td>128.5</td>
<td>127.0</td>
<td>123.3</td>
<td>1.18</td>
<td>4.22</td>
<td>117.0</td>
<td>110.0</td>
<td>104.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Manufacturing Sales NSA</td>
<td>107.6</td>
<td>112.1</td>
<td>105.6</td>
<td>-4.01</td>
<td>1.89</td>
<td>98.7</td>
<td>99.1</td>
<td>100.9</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp; Domestic NSA</td>
<td>101.8</td>
<td>105.2</td>
<td>101.8</td>
<td>-3.29</td>
<td>0.00</td>
<td>94.8</td>
<td>95.9</td>
<td>99.5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp; Foreign NSA</td>
<td>114.3</td>
<td>123.8</td>
<td>112.1</td>
<td>-5.25</td>
<td>4.46</td>
<td>105.3</td>
<td>104.5</td>
<td>103.3</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
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German data on new orders and sales are reported only in index form. The index of the volume of German new orders for manufacturing increased 1.09% in October from September, after a 0.78% rise in September. A decline of 1.23% in [...]

German New Orders for Manufacturing Increase in October but Sales Lag

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/041206a.jpg" width="353">
Commodity prices, as measured by the JoC-ECRI (Journal of Commerce-Economic Cycle Research Institute) index, have risen moderately during the last several weeks following sharp declines from the high in late August.
Metals prices have been quite strong, led higher by steel scrap (+92.9% y/y), copper scrap (36.1% y/y), lead (50.8% y/y) and aluminum (18.9% y/y).
Petroleum prices also have surged with crude oil (52.1% y/y), but strength in benzene (138.1% y/y) has been most notable.
Earlier strength in lumber prices has been eroded by the cooling of the housing market. The miscellaneous prices category has eased as framing lumber prices have fallen nearly one quarter from the summer highs and structural composite prices have fallen nearly in half.
During the last ten years there has been a 52% correlation between the JoC-ECRI commodity price index and the six month change in factory sector industrial production.
The KR-CRB (Knight Ridder-Commodity Research Bureau) commodity price index has firmed as well though its weighting scheme differs from the JoC-ECRI Index, with roughly half reflecting agricultural prices. Livestock prices (4.5% y/y) have been volatile recently as have foodstuff prices (5.8% y/y).

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@E8/@E803/@E80304/@E80304.HTM">JoC-ECRI Industrial Price Index</a></th>
<th scope="col">12/03/04</th>
<th scope="col">11/04</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">All Items</td>
<td>113.40</td>
<td>112.68</td>
<td>8.8%</td>
<td>91.97</td>
<td>79.53</td>
<td>80.33</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp; Textiles</td>
<td>64.40</td>
<td>64.05</td>
<td>-6.3%</td>
<td>65.09</td>
<td>59.73</td>
<td>61.36</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp; Metals</td>
<td>127.40</td>
<td>126.53</td>
<td>31.6%</td>
<td>84.57</td>
<td>75.14</td>
<td>75.44</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp; Miscellaneous</td>
<td>100.70</td>
<td>99.18</td>
<td>-20.0%</td>
<td>102.89</td>
<td>85.81</td>
<td>87.29</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp; Petroleum</td>
<td>251.10</td>
<td>254.87</td>
<td>88.5%</td>
<td>135.26</td>
<td>110.06</td>
<td>108.90</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol"></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">KR-CRB</td>
<td>11/30/04</td>
<td>11/04</td>
<td>Y/Y</td>
<td>2003</td>
<td>2002</td>
<td>2001</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">All Commodities</td>
<td>303.20</td>
<td>298.60</td>
<td>8.2%</td>
<td>282.59</td>
<td>244.31</td>
<td>212.89</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

Commodity prices, as measured by the JoC-ECRI (Journal of Commerce-Economic Cycle Research Institute) index, have risen moderately during the last several weeks following sharp declines from the high in late August. Metals prices have [...]

Commodity Prices Higher

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/041206a.jpg" width="353">
Commodity prices, as measured by the JoC-ECRI (Journal of Commerce-Economic Cycle Research Institute) index, have risen moderately during the last several weeks following sharp declines from the high in late August.
Metals prices have been quite strong, led higher by steel scrap (+92.9% y/y), copper scrap (36.1% y/y), lead (50.8% y/y) and aluminum (18.9% y/y).
Petroleum prices also have surged with crude oil (52.1% y/y), but strength in benzene (138.1% y/y) has been most notable.
Earlier strength in lumber prices has been eroded by the cooling of the housing market. The miscellaneous prices category has eased as framing lumber prices have fallen nearly one quarter from the summer highs and structural composite prices have fallen nearly in half.
During the last ten years there has been a 52% correlation between the JoC-ECRI commodity price index and the six month change in factory sector industrial production.
The KR-CRB (Knight Ridder-Commodity Research Bureau) commodity price index has firmed as well though its weighting scheme differs from the JoC-ECRI Index, with roughly half reflecting agricultural prices. Livestock prices (4.5% y/y) have been volatile recently as have foodstuff prices (5.8% y/y).

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@E8/@E803/@E80304/@E80304.HTM">JoC-ECRI Industrial Price Index</a></th>
<th scope="col">12/03/04</th>
<th scope="col">11/04</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">All Items</td>
<td>113.40</td>
<td>112.68</td>
<td>8.8%</td>
<td>91.97</td>
<td>79.53</td>
<td>80.33</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp; Textiles</td>
<td>64.40</td>
<td>64.05</td>
<td>-6.3%</td>
<td>65.09</td>
<td>59.73</td>
<td>61.36</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp; Metals</td>
<td>127.40</td>
<td>126.53</td>
<td>31.6%</td>
<td>84.57</td>
<td>75.14</td>
<td>75.44</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp; Miscellaneous</td>
<td>100.70</td>
<td>99.18</td>
<td>-20.0%</td>
<td>102.89</td>
<td>85.81</td>
<td>87.29</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp; Petroleum</td>
<td>251.10</td>
<td>254.87</td>
<td>88.5%</td>
<td>135.26</td>
<td>110.06</td>
<td>108.90</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol"></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">KR-CRB</td>
<td>11/30/04</td>
<td>11/04</td>
<td>Y/Y</td>
<td>2003</td>
<td>2002</td>
<td>2001</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">All Commodities</td>
<td>303.20</td>
<td>298.60</td>
<td>8.2%</td>
<td>282.59</td>
<td>244.31</td>
<td>212.89</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/041206a.jpg" width="353">
Commodity prices, as measured by the JoC-ECRI (Journal of Commerce-Economic Cycle Research Institute) index, have risen moderately during the last several weeks following sharp declines from the high in late August.
Metals prices have been quite strong, led higher by steel scrap (+92.9% y/y), copper scrap (36.1% y/y), lead (50.8% y/y) and aluminum (18.9% y/y).
Petroleum prices also have surged with crude oil (52.1% y/y), but strength in benzene (138.1% y/y) has been most notable.
Earlier strength in lumber prices has been eroded by the cooling of the housing market. The miscellaneous prices category has eased as framing lumber prices have fallen nearly one quarter from the summer highs and structural composite prices have fallen nearly in half.
During the last ten years there has been a 52% correlation between the JoC-ECRI commodity price index and the six month change in factory sector industrial production.
The KR-CRB (Knight Ridder-Commodity Research Bureau) commodity price index has firmed as well though its weighting scheme differs from the JoC-ECRI Index, with roughly half reflecting agricultural prices. Livestock prices (4.5% y/y) have been volatile recently as have foodstuff prices (5.8% y/y).

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@EF/@EF03/@EF03.HTM">JoC-ECRI Industrial Price Index</a></th>
<th scope="col">12/03/04</th>
<th scope="col">11/04</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">All Items</td>
<td>113.40</td>
<td>112.68</td>
<td>8.8%</td>
<td>91.97</td>
<td>79.53</td>
<td>80.33</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp; Textiles</td>
<td>64.40</td>
<td>64.05</td>
<td>-6.3%</td>
<td>65.09</td>
<td>59.73</td>
<td>61.36</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp; Metals</td>
<td>127.40</td>
<td>126.53</td>
<td>31.6%</td>
<td>84.57</td>
<td>75.14</td>
<td>75.44</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp; Miscellaneous</td>
<td>100.70</td>
<td>99.18</td>
<td>-20.0%</td>
<td>102.89</td>
<td>85.81</td>
<td>87.29</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp; Petroleum</td>
<td>251.10</td>
<td>254.87</td>
<td>88.5%</td>
<td>135.26</td>
<td>110.06</td>
<td>108.90</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol"></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">KR-CRB</td>
<td>11/30/04</td>
<td>11/04</td>
<td>Y/Y</td>
<td>2003</td>
<td>2002</td>
<td>2001</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">All Commodities</td>
<td>303.20</td>
<td>298.60</td>
<td>8.2%</td>
<td>282.59</td>
<td>244.31</td>
<td>212.89</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
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Carol Stone, CBE

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/041203c.jpg" width="353">
Such a simple concept: the weather. But what an effect it can have, on economic activity and other aspects of life. The National Climatic Data Center, an office in the Commerce Department, maintains weather data for the US and many parts of the world. These data are important in judging prospects for construction activity, shipping and agricultural activity, among other aspects of the economy. Haver&#39;s most basic database, USECON, includes two of these items, the average temperature in the US (48 contiguous states) and average precipitation, monthly all the way back to 1921. In the REGIONAL database, the same items are shown for the nine Census regions and 48 states.
In November, the nation&#39;s temperature averaged 44.4&ordm;F., 11.9&ordm; below October and 28.0&ordm; below the year&#39;s peak in July. November&#39;s temperature has averaged 43.2&ordm; for the last ten years. This year&#39;s level also represents fairly average declines from the recent summer and early fall months.
What&#39;s different this year is the amount of rainfall. Only a modest fraction of any months have as much as 3&quot; of rain, but November had 3.14&quot;. The average for the last ten Novembers is 2.36&quot;. In addition, as one might surmise after four major hurricanes this autumn, 2004 has been a wet year. For the first eleven months of each of the last ten years, precipitation has averaged 2.56&quot; monthly, but this year, we&#39;ve had 2.79&quot;, about 9% more than the decade-long trend.
Economic measures are hard to correlate numerically with weather performance. A cursory look at some construction items in November shows that housing starts and permits, for example, don&#39;t necessarily strengthen in a warm November or weaken in a cold one. But home sales do, as suggested by the monthly changes shown in the table below for sales not seasonally adjusted. Cold or muddy conditions are not especially conducive for would-be buyers to tramp around, looking at houses. So new home sales tend to weaken in such periods. And some severe weather can actually contribute to more vigorous activity, as in the need in Florida for extraordinarily large amounts of reconstruction work. Thus, weather data are important and useful in economic analysis, but cannot be used in isolation to assess even closely related economic pursuits.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">November</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
<th scope="col">1998</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Temperature (&ordm;F.)</td>
<td>44.4</td>
<td>42.7</td>
<td>42.1</td>
<td>47.7</td>
<td>38.3</td>
<td>48.3</td>
<td>45.3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Rainfall (inches)</td>
<td>3.14</td>
<td>2.44</td>
<td>1.86</td>
<td>2.31</td>
<td>2.68</td>
<td>1.36</td>
<td>2.46</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Jan-Nov Average</td>
<td>2.79</td>
<td>2.52</td>
<td>2.34</td>
<td>2.39</td>
<td>2.37</td>
<td>2.38</td>
<td>2.82</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol"></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">New Home Sales (NSA, % Change from October)</td>
<td>NA</td>
<td>-13.6</td>
<td>-5.2</td>
<td>+1.5</td>
<td>-11.3</td>
<td>-9.0</td>
<td>1.4</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

Such a simple concept: the weather. But what an effect it can have, on economic activity and other aspects of life. The National Climatic Data Center, an office in the Commerce Department, maintains weather data for the US and many [...]

November Has Average Temperature in US, But Lots of Rain

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/041203b.jpg" width="353">
The November Business Activity Index for the non-manufacturing sector rose to 61.3, adding 1.5 points to the 3.1 point gain in October, according to the Institute for Supply Management. Consensus expectations had been for a modest decline to 58.5.
Since the series&#39; inception in 1997 there has been a 55% correlation between the Business Activity Index and the q/q change in GDP services plus construction.
The employment sub index fell modestly to 55.0 following three months of gain. Since the series&#39; inception in 1997 there has been a 60% correlation between the level of the ISM non-manufacturing employment index and the m/m change in payroll employment in the service producing plus the construction industries.
The new orders index fell for the third month in the last four.
ISM surveys more than 370 purchasing managers in more than 62 industries including construction, law firms, hospitals, government and retailers. The non-manufacturing survey dates only to July 1997, therefore its seasonal adjustment should be viewed tentatively.
Business Activity Index for the non-manufacturing sector reflects a question separate from the subgroups mentioned above. In contrast, the NAPM manufacturing sector composite index is a weighted average five components.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@EF/@EF03/@EF03.HTM">ISM Nonmanufacturing Survey</a></th>
<th scope="col">Nov</th>
<th scope="col">Oct</th>
<th scope="col">Nov &#39;03</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Business Activity Index</td>
<td>61.3</td>
<td>59.8</td>
<td>59.6</td>
<td>58.1</td>
<td>55.1</td>
<td>48.9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Prices Index</td>
<td>71.0</td>
<td>74.1</td>
<td>58.1</td>
<td>56.7</td>
<td>53.9</td>
<td>51.5</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>


</html>

The November Business Activity Index for the non-manufacturing sector rose to 61.3, adding 1.5 points to the 3.1 point gain in October, according to the Institute for Supply Management. Consensus expectations had been for a modest [...]

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index Rose

PMIs showing widespread revival of global economy

Crude oil price has returned to pre-conflict level but traffic through Hormuz still subpar

Surging orders for computers and electronics propelling durable goods orders

Next year's inflation forecasts are on the rise and above target

Disrupted global supply chains placing upward pressure on US goods prices

Construction of data centers has overtaken transportation construction in US

Elevated energy prices putting intense upward pressure on input prices around the globe

US is big leader in global surge in private AI investment

Larger-than-usual income tax refunds this year are supporting consumer spending

Sharply rising share of AI-related jobs

Inflationary impact of surge in oil prices larger in Europe than in the US

Futures market thinks the price of oil will recede significantly over the next six months

Recent pickup in US defense orders could help support overall growth ahead

Cost of transporting crude oil has soared to series high

Market-based inflation expectations have not yet reflected recent surge in oil prices

Global equity markets are fearing a major economic disruption from soaring oil prices

Is recent drop in sentiment signaling softer growth ahead?

With the Iran conflict, geopolitical risk has soared to alarming levels

Soaring AI-related investment in US underpinning strong contribution of business spending to overall growth

AI-related outperformance of IP in Advanced Asia ex Japan

Resilient US economy pushing up Blue Chip 2026 outlook

US and China big leaders in adoption of AI models

Robust US demand for advanced technology products

China's export growth rotating away from the US

More pronounced upward revisions in countries more exposed to AI investment

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Winnie Tapasanun

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Existing home sales unexpectedly fell 2.4% m/m (+2.8% y/y) to 4.09 million units (SAAR) in June, the first monthly decline since March, following an upwardly revised 3.7% increase to 4.19 million in May (previously +3.2%; 4.17 mil.), according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The Action Economics Forecast Survey had expected June sales of 4.20 million units. Sales remained 36.4% below a high of 6.43 million in January 2022 and 38.0% below a peak of 6.60 million in January 2021. The June decline coincided with a rise in the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate to 6.49% in June, the highest since August 2025, after increasing to 6.44% in May, according to Freddie Mac. The sales figures are based on closings of sales contracts signed over the past couple of months.

Existing single-family home sales fell 2.4% (+3.3% y/y) to 3.73 million units in June, the first m/m fall in three months, following a 4.1% gain to 3.82 million in May, remaining 34.6% below a high of 5.70 million in January 2022. Sales of condos and co-ops decreased 2.7% (-2.7% y/y) to 360,000 in June, the lowest level since May 2025, after being unchanged m/m for the third successive month at 370,000, remaining 50.7% below a high of 730,000 in January 2022.

Regionally, June existing home sales declined m/m in all regions except the Northeast. Sales in the South dropped 3.6% (+3.8% y/y) to 1.89 million in June, a three-month low, after a 3.2% rise in May, and sales in the Midwest slid 3.0% (+2.1% y/y) to 980,000 following a 7.4% May advance; both posted the first m/m decrease in three months. Sales in the West fell 1.3% (+2.8% y/y) to 740,000, the lowest level since January, after being flat m/m at 750,000 in May. In contrast, sales in the Northeast increased 2.1% (0.0% y/y) to 480,000 after a 4.4% May gain. Notably, the South remained the dominant region, accounting for 46.2% of total U.S. existing home sales.

The median price of all existing homes (NSA) rose 2.2% (1.8% y/y) to $440,600 in June, the fifth consecutive m/m rise, on top of an upwardly revised 3.3% increase to $431,200 in May ($429,300 previously). Prices were 22.1% above a low of $360,800 in January 2023. The median price of an existing single-family home climbed 2.3% (1.8% y/y) to $446,400 in June, the fifth straight m/m increase, after a 3.4% advance to $436,400 in May. The median price of condos and co-ops, up for the sixth time in seven months, grew 0.6% (1.6% y/y) to $380,000 following a 1.0% May gain to $377,800. Regionally, overall prices rose m/m and y/y in June in the Northeast (+5.6%; +3.9% y/y), Midwest (+2.1%; +2.7% y/y), South (+1.0%; +0.9% y/y), and West (+0.8%; +0.9% y/y). All these price series were at their record highs.

Inventories of homes for sale fell m/m in June for the first time since December. The number of existing homes for sale (NSA) declined 0.6% (+1.3% y/y) to 1.56 million units following an upwardly revised 4.7% May rise to 1.57 million (the highest level since November 2019). The supply of homes on the market at the current selling rate (NSA) increased to 4.6 months in June from 4.5 months in May and April, matching the highest level since August 2025. A record low in supply of 1.6 months was in January 2022.

The data on existing home sales, prices and affordability are compiled by the National Association of Realtors. The data on single-family home sales extend back to February 1968. Total sales and price data and regional sales can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. Regional price and affordability data and national inventory data are available in the **REALTOR** database. Mortgage interest rates can be found in the **WEEKLY** database. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, reported in the **AS1REPNA** database.

260709H57.jpg

260709I57.jpg

- June sales -2.4% m/m to 4.09 mil., first drop in three mths.; +2.8% y/y, third straight y/y rise.
- Sales m/m down in the South (-3.6%), Midwest (-3.0%), and West (-1.3%); up in the Northeast (+2.1%).
- Sales y/y up in all regions except the Northeast w/ a flat reading.
- Median sales price +2.2% (+1.8% y/y) to $440,600, a record high.
- Unsold inventory -0.6% (+1.3% y/y) to 1.56 mil. units, first m/m decline since Dec.; 4.6 months' supply, highest since Aug. ’25.

U.S. Existing Home Sales Unexpectedly Fall in June from a Five-Month High

Kathleen Stephansen, CBE

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Initial claims for unemployment insurance declined 2,000 to 215,000 in the week ending July 4, from 217,000 in the week ending June 27, revised from 215,000. The four-week average was 218,750 in the July 4 week, down from 222,500 in the week ending June 27. The Action Economics/Haver Analytics Survey looked for 218,000 claims to have been filed. 

The total number of unemployment insurance beneficiaries—also known as “continuing claims”—rose by 8,000 to 1.814 million in the week ending June 27, from 1.806 million in the week ending June 20, revised from 1.814 million. The four-week moving average rose to 1.808 million in the June 27 week from 1.801 million in the June 20 week. The insured unemployment rate was unchanged at 1.2% in the week of June 27. Except for a one-week dip to 1.1% in the week of April 25, the insured unemployment rate has been at 1.2% since the week of November 29, 2025.

The insured unemployment rate varied greatly across individual states and territories. In the week ending June 20, the highest unemployment rates were in Washington (2.03%), New Jersey (2.11%), Minnesota (2.15%), and Puerto Rico (2.45%). The lowest rates were in South Dakota (0.28%), Florida (0.35%), Alabama and North Carolina (both 0.41%), Louisiana (0.42%), and Arkansas (0.49%). Rates in other notable states include California (1.88%), Pennsylvania (1.63%), Illinois (1.58%), New York (1.52%), and Texas (1.12%). These state data are not seasonally adjusted.

Data on weekly unemployment claims are from the Department of Labor itself, not the Bureau of Labor Statistics. They begin in 1967 and are contained in Haver’s **WEEKLY** database and summarized monthly in **USECON**. Data for individual states are in **REGIONW** back to December 1986.

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- New claims declined by 2,000 to 215,000 in the week ending July 4.
- Continuing claims rose by 8,000 to 1.814 million in the week ending June 27.
- The insured unemployment rate was unchanged at 1.2% in the week of June 27.

U.S. Initial Unemployment Claims Declined in the Week of July 4

Robert Brusca

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The German trade surplus surged in May to €19.1 billion from €14.7 billion in April. Exports rose by 0.9% in May while imports fell by 2.5%, creating a jump in the surplus month-to-month. In April, exports increased by 0.8% while imports rose by 1.1%.

Details on exports and imports lag by one month. In April, exports for motor vehicles and consumer goods declined, while exports of capital goods and other exports rose. On the import side, there were increases in imports ranging from 2.8% to 4.3% month-to-month across capital goods, motor vehicles, and consumer goods, but for the catch-all category ‘other’ imports fell by 2.7% month-to-month.

Flows adjusted for inflation showed an increase in exports of 0.4% in May while real imports fell by 3.3%. In April, real exports were flat while real imports fell by 0.2%.

The sequential behavior of real exports and real imports show independent activity. Imports log a clear weakening, rising 0.1% over 12 months, falling at a 5% annual rate over six months, and then falling at a 10.3% annual rate over three months. On the export side, real exports rose by 2.6% over 12 months, accelerated to a 7.2% annual rate over six months, but over three months have pulled back and fallen at a 1.6% annual rate. However, export growth still exceeds import growth over each of these horizons: 12 months, six months, and three months.

Trade trends paint a darkening picture of the German economy, with imports weak in real terms and trending even weaker, while activity on the export side of the equation pops over 12 months and six months but takes a hit over three months.

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The situation in the Strait of Hormuz continues to muddy the waters for the future. Passage through the strait has been sharply stopped, stabilized, revived, and now is back to being destabilized. That makes the strait a major uncertainty zone; it's hard to tell how these effects are going to play out over the coming months for German trade results and everyone else's. The deterioration of conditions in the Strait of Hormuz is now unknowable because Iran has decided to start shooting at ships, further destabilizing the outlook.

Germany

German Trades Surplus Balloons

Andrew Cates

**Growth Surprises Continue to Underpin Equity Resilience**
Global equity markets have proved remarkably resilient in recent weeks, shrugging off intermittent bouts of geopolitical and policy uncertainty to grind higher. Chart 1 below helps explain why: it tracks the relationship between global growth-versus-inflation surprises and world equity markets, and on that measure the recent run of global growth data has continued to surprise on the upside relative to inflation outturns — a combination that has historically been supportive for risk assets. Whether that resilience persists will depend on whether the growth-surprise advantage evident in the chart below can be sustained in the face of the inflationary pressures explored below.

260709Z1.jpg

**PMIs Confirm a Broadly Solid Global Expansion**
This week's final composite PMI readings for June reinforced the broader impression of resilient global growth. As chart 2 below shows, most major economies posted readings comfortably in expansionary territory, with India continuing to lead the pack and the US not far behind. Even the laggards in the sample are hovering close to the expansion threshold rather than falling decisively below it, suggesting stabilisation rather than outright contraction (and with the UK a notable exception).

260709Z2.jpg

**Inflation Surprises Are Creeping Back, and Bond Yields Are Taking Notice**
The US growth picture painted by Haver's surprise indices broadly echoes the message from the global PMI data. Chart 3 below shows the combined growth-and-inflation surprise index drifting higher this week, and closer inspection suggests growth is doing most of that work, with activity data continuing to outperform expectations. That is, on the face of it, good news. But it has not stopped bond markets from taking notice: short-dated Treasury yields have remained elevated in recent weeks, as stronger growth keeps alive the possibility that the Federal Reserve holds rates higher for longer or even lifts them in coming weeks.

260709Z3.jpg

**Supply Chains Are Tightening** 
Latest data show that global supply chain pressures tightened by less in June than they had the month before, likely reflecting the easing of Middle East tensions through much of the period. Chart 4 below shows that pressures troughed in the middle of last year and have been building gradually since, though June's slower pace of tightening suggests that easing had started to feed through. Still, today's flare-up threatens to undo that improvement, particularly if it affects shipping routes or energy flows through the region once again.

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**Extreme Weather: An Old Supply-Side Risk Returns**
Geopolitics is not the only source of supply-side risk currently in play. Large parts of Europe have been gripped this week by another intense and prolonged heatwave, with temperatures in several major cities running well above seasonal norms. Extreme heat of this kind carries real economic costs: it depresses labour productivity, particularly in outdoor and manufacturing-adjacent sectors, strains electricity grids as air-conditioning demand spikes, and can disrupt agricultural output and river-based transport when water levels fall. Episodes like this have become more frequent in recent years, and while any single heatwave rarely shifts the macro picture on its own, the cumulative effect of more frequent and more severe weather events could start showing up in productivity and inflation data across the advanced economies. It is a reminder that the supply side of the global economy faces structural as well as cyclical challenges, and that climate-related disruption deserves a permanent place alongside geopolitics and demographics in any assessment of medium-term inflation risk.

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**AI Investment: The Other Side of the Supply Equation**
Set against these supply-side headwinds is a genuinely positive structural development: the extraordinary scale of private investment now flowing into artificial intelligence. Chart 6 below shows just how sharply that investment has grown in recent years, reaching a fresh high last year. If even a fraction of that investment translates into genuine productivity gains, it could provide a meaningful long-run offset to the energy, climate and geopolitical constraints highlighted elsewhere in this week's charts. The scale of the bet now being placed on AI is large enough that it is beginning to show up in aggregate investment and capital expenditure data across the advanced economies, and it is likely to remain one of the defining structural themes shaping the global growth outlook over the remainder of this decade.

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Global markets head into this week’s closing stages digesting a mixed set of signals. Last week's US non-farm payrolls report undershot expectations, adding to questions about the durability of the US labour market even as broader activity data have continued to hold up well. Compounding that picture, news broke today of renewed instability in the Middle East, reintroducing a geopolitical risk premium into markets just as investors had begun to look past it. Global equity markets have nonetheless remained resilient, continuing to track the broadly encouraging tone of incoming activity data (chart 1). That resilience was reinforced by a solid set of global PMIs across most major economies over the past few days (chart 2). Haver's surprise indices tell a similar story of positive growth momentum in the US, but with an important caveat: incoming inflation data have also been surprising to the upside, driven largely by higher oil prices (chart 3). These inflation risks could persist moreover, as global supply chain pressures have picked up in recent months and today's flare-up in the Middle East threatens to add further strain (chart 4). The world economy remains vulnerable to other supply-side shocks too, such as the extreme heat gripping much of Europe this week (chart 5). Still, on the other side of the ledger the enormous scale of investment now flowing into artificial intelligence could be a genuine source of supply-side potential (chart 6).

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Charts of the Week: Growth Holds Firm

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Mortgage applications dropped 2.2% w/w (-5.4% y/y) in the week ending July 3, following no change in the week ending June 26, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey. Applications for loans to purchase a house edged down 0.6% w/w (-6.3% y/y) in the latest week, after rising 0.5% w/w (3.2% y/y) in the June 26 week.  Applications for loan refinancing dropped 4.1% w/w (-4.2% y/y) in the week ending July 3, after declining 0.7% w/w (+9.1% y/y) in the June 26 week.

The effective interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate loan rose 1bp to 6.77% in the week ending July 3 from 6.76% in the week ending June 26. The rate on 15-year fixed-rate mortgages edged down 2bps to 6.17% in the July 3 week from 6.19% in the June 26 week. The 30-year Jumbo rate edged down 1bp to 6.62% in the latest week from 6.63% in the June 26 week. The rate on a 5-year ARM rose 5bps to 6.19% in the July 3 week from 6.14% in the June 26 week.

The share of applications for refinancing an existing loan declined to 40.6% of total applications in the week of July 3 from 41.4% in the June 26 week. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity edged up to 7.8% in the July 3 week from 7.6% in the June 26 week.

The average size of a mortgage declined 0.4% w/w (+1.3% y/y) to $391,500 in the week ending July 3, after rising 1.1% w/w (0.4% y/y) to $393,200 in the week ending June 26. The average size of a purchase loan declined 1.0% w/w (+4.3% y/y) to $451,000 in the latest week, after rising 1.2% w/w (2.7% y/y) to $455,600 in the June 26 week. The average size of a loan to refinance a mortgage edged down 0.1% w/w (-3.9% y/y) to $304,600 in the week ending July 3, after rising 0.5% w/w (-2.8% y/y) to $304,900 in the June 26 week.

The Mortgage Bankers Association Survey covers 75% of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications and has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks and thrifts. The base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100. The figures for weekly mortgage applications and interest rates are available in Haver’s **SURVEYS** database.

- Both applications for loans to purchase and applications for loan refinancing declined in the latest week.
- Interest rate on 30-year fixed-rate loans rose 1bp to 6.77%. 
- Average loan size edged down.

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