Global| Dec 06 2004Commodity Prices Higher
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Commodity prices, as measured by the JoC-ECRI (Journal of Commerce-Economic Cycle Research Institute) index, have risen moderately during the last several weeks following sharp declines from the high in late August. Metals prices have [...]
Commodity prices, as measured by the JoC-ECRI (Journal of Commerce-Economic Cycle Research Institute) index, have risen moderately during the last several weeks following sharp declines from the high in late August.
Metals prices have been quite strong, led higher by steel scrap (+92.9% y/y), copper scrap (36.1% y/y), lead (50.8% y/y) and aluminum (18.9% y/y).
Petroleum prices also have surged with crude oil (52.1% y/y), but strength in benzene (138.1% y/y) has been most notable.
Earlier strength in lumber prices has been eroded by the cooling of the housing market. The miscellaneous prices category has eased as framing lumber prices have fallen nearly one quarter from the summer highs and structural composite prices have fallen nearly in half.
During the last ten years there has been a 52% correlation between the JoC-ECRI commodity price index and the six month change in factory sector industrial production.
The KR-CRB (Knight Ridder-Commodity Research Bureau) commodity price index has firmed as well though its weighting scheme differs from the JoC-ECRI Index, with roughly half reflecting agricultural prices. Livestock prices (4.5% y/y) have been volatile recently as have foodstuff prices (5.8% y/y).
| JoC-ECRI Industrial Price Index | 12/03/04 | 11/04 | Y/Y | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All Items | 113.40 | 112.68 | 8.8% | 91.97 | 79.53 | 80.33 |
| Textiles | 64.40 | 64.05 | -6.3% | 65.09 | 59.73 | 61.36 |
| Metals | 127.40 | 126.53 | 31.6% | 84.57 | 75.14 | 75.44 |
| Miscellaneous | 100.70 | 99.18 | -20.0% | 102.89 | 85.81 | 87.29 |
| Petroleum | 251.10 | 254.87 | 88.5% | 135.26 | 110.06 | 108.90 |
| KR-CRB | 11/30/04 | 11/04 | Y/Y | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 |
| All Commodities | 303.20 | 298.60 | 8.2% | 282.59 | 244.31 | 212.89 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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