Tom Moeller

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/051209h.jpg" width="353">
Consumer sentiment in early December rose more than generally expected, reported the University of Michigan. The 8.7% m/m rise to 88.7 added to a 10.0% rise in November and beat Consensus expectations for an increase to 85.0.
During the last ten years there has been a 76% correlation between the level of consumer sentiment and the y/y change in real consumer spending.
Consumers&#39; expectations again improved sharply and the index rose 11.1% on top of a 10.1% November gain. Expected business conditions during the next year rose sharply for the third straight month though the level remained down 21.3% versus last year. Expectations for personal finances also rose sharply m/m but here again the index level remained lower than last year by 3.1%. The mean expected inflation rate for the next twelve months held steady m/m at 4.2% though that was below the 5.5% expected in October &amp; September.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/051209g.jpg" width="353">
The current conditions index added 6.4% to the 9.9% November gain but remained well depressed versus last year. The reading of personal finances surged 12.6% (+3.6% y/y) and the reading of buying conditions for large household goods added to November&#39;s 12.9% jump ((-3.0% y/y).Weighing on sentiment is consumers&#39; reading of gov&#39;t economic policy (-20.0% y/y).
The University of Michigan survey is not seasonally adjusted.The mid-month survey is based on telephone interviews with 250 households nationwide on personal finances and business and buying conditions. The survey is expanded to a total of 500 interviews at month end.
Why Hasn&#39;t the Jump in Oil Prices Led to a Recession? from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco is available <a href="http://www.frbsf.org/publications/economics/letter/2005/el2005-31.pdf">here</a>.

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@EF/@EF14/@EF1402/@EF1402.HTM">University of Michigan</a></th>
<th scope="col">Dec (Prelim.)</th>
<th scope="col">Nov</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
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</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Consumer Sentiment</td>
<td>88.7</td>
<td>81.6</td>
<td>-8.7%</td>
<td>95.2</td>
<td>87.6</td>
<td>89.6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp; Current Conditions</td>
<td>106.6</td>
<td>100.2</td>
<td>-0.1%</td>
<td>105.6</td>
<td>97.2</td>
<td>97.5</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp; Expectations</td>
<td>77.3</td>
<td>69.6</td>
<td>-15.0%</td>
<td>88.5</td>
<td>81.4</td>
<td>84.6</td>
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Consumer sentiment in early December rose more than generally expected, reported the University of Michigan. The 8.7% m/m rise to 88.7 added to a 10.0% rise in November and beat Consensus expectations for an increase to 85.0. During [...]

U.S. Consumer Sentiment Stronger Than Expected

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/051209h.jpg" width="353">
Consumer sentiment in early December rose more than generally expected, reported the University of Michigan. The 8.7% m/m rise to 88.7 added to a 10.0% rise in November and beat Consensus expectations for an increase to 85.0.
During the last ten years there has been a 76% correlation between the level of consumer sentiment and the y/y change in real consumer spending.
Consumers&#39; expectations again improved sharply and the index rose 11.1% on top of a 10.1% November gain. Expected business conditions during the next year rose sharply for the third straight month though the level remained down 21.3% versus last year. Expectations for personal finances also rose sharply m/m but here again the index level remained lower than last year by 3.1%. The mean expected inflation rate for the next twelve months held steady m/m at 4.2% though that was below the 5.5% expected in October &amp; September.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/051209g.jpg" width="353">
The current conditions index added 6.4% to the 9.9% November gain but remained well depressed versus last year. The reading of personal finances surged 12.6% (+3.6% y/y) and the reading of buying conditions for large household goods added to November&#39;s 12.9% jump ((-3.0% y/y).Weighing on sentiment is consumers&#39; reading of gov&#39;t economic policy (-20.0% y/y).
The University of Michigan survey is not seasonally adjusted.The mid-month survey is based on telephone interviews with 250 households nationwide on personal finances and business and buying conditions. The survey is expanded to a total of 500 interviews at month end.
Why Hasn&#39;t the Jump in Oil Prices Led to a Recession? from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco is available <a href="http://www.frbsf.org/publications/economics/letter/2005/el2005-31.pdf">here</a>.

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@EF/@EF14/@EF1402/@EF1402.HTM">University of Michigan</a></th>
<th scope="col">Dec (Prelim.)</th>
<th scope="col">Nov</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Consumer Sentiment</td>
<td>88.7</td>
<td>81.6</td>
<td>-8.7%</td>
<td>95.2</td>
<td>87.6</td>
<td>89.6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp; Current Conditions</td>
<td>106.6</td>
<td>100.2</td>
<td>-0.1%</td>
<td>105.6</td>
<td>97.2</td>
<td>97.5</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp; Expectations</td>
<td>77.3</td>
<td>69.6</td>
<td>-15.0%</td>
<td>88.5</td>
<td>81.4</td>
<td>84.6</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
UK Trade Balance Decreases in October with Exports Up and Imports Down 
by <a href="/comment/Stone.html">Carol Stone</a> December 9, 2005


<img align="left" border="0" height="291" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/1051209a.gif" width="387">
Foreign trade developments are always interesting in the UK, since it is involved in so many different kinds of activities: manufacturing, shipping, insurance and oil, to name a few. In October, the balance on goods and services decreased by &pound;1 billion to &pound;2.9 billion as exports rose and imports fell from September amounts. The balance on fuel returned to a near neutral position after reaching unprecedented deficits in August and September. The balance on services was steady, reestablishing its old trend after a plunge in August due to Hurricane Katrina.
Among exports, manufactured goods maintained a firm trend for a third month, breaking a prior wide seesaw pattern. The value of crude oil exports surpassed &pound;2 billion for the first time, ironically even as oil prices actually fell slightly from September; the volume of crude shipped surged more than 33% after sagging in August and September.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/1051209b.jpg" width="353">
On the import side, widespread decreases in manufactured goods contributed to a &pound;681 million decline in total goods imports. Vehicles were down &pound;158 million and other finished goods &pound;256 million, the latter a second successive decrease that basically offset a jump in August. Oil imports also fell, with both a volume decrease and a slight drop in the unit value.
Insurance payments figured heavily in an earlier swing in the trade balance. According to the ONS, Lloyds of London paid out an estimated &pound;1.4 billion in benefits for Hurricane Katrina losses. The last time such a large negative flow (a negative export of services provided by a UK entity, not to be confused with an import of services, which would be provided by a foreign entity) occurred was in September 2001, and that was considerably more, at about &pound;2.3 billion. Both of these were one-time payments, so the broad service export total quickly reversed to its then-current amounts. The overall balance on services had thus been a mere &pound;457 million in August, but rebounded quickly to &pound;1.7 billion in September and was basically unchanged in October.

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/UK/@U8/@U8.HTM">United Kingdom: Trade</a> SA, Bil.&pound;</th>
<th scope="col">Oct 2005</th>
<th scope="col">Sept 2005</th>
<th scope="col">Aug 2005</th>
<th scope="col">Oct 2004</th>
Monthly Averages
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">2004</td>
<td>2003</td>
<td>2002</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Trade Balance: Goods &amp; Services</td>
<td>-2.88</td>
<td>-3.90</td>
<td>-5.49</td>
<td>-3.78</td>
<td>-3.26</td>
<td>-2.58</td>
<td>-2.63</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Exports</td>
<td>27.24</td>
<td>26.82</td>
<td>25.14</td>
<td>24.68</td>
<td>24.26</td>
<td>23.52</td>
<td>22.91</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Imports</td>
<td>30.12</td>
<td>30.72</td>
<td>30.63</td>
<td>28.46</td>
<td>27.52</td>
<td>26.10</td>
<td>25.54</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Goods</td>
<td>-4.55</td>
<td>-5.60</td>
<td>-5.95</td>
<td>-5.66</td>
<td>-5.04</td>
<td>-3.99</td>
<td>-3.92</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Fuels</td>
<td>-0.08</td>
<td>-0.75</td>
<td>-0.59</td>
<td>-0.00</td>
<td>0.10</td>
<td>0.42</td>
<td>0.53</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Exports</td>
<td>2.27</td>
<td>1.94</td>
<td>1.65</td>
<td>1.60</td>
<td>1.50</td>
<td>1.38</td>
<td>1.33</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Imports</td>
<td>2.35</td>
<td>2.67</td>
<td>2.24</td>
<td>1.59</td>
<td>1.40</td>
<td>0.96</td>
<td>0.80</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Services</td>
<td>1.67</td>
<td>1.70</td>
<td>0.46</td>
<td>1.87</td>
<td>1.77</td>
<td>1.41</td>
<td>1.30</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Higher Commodity Prices: A Better Economy or Pending Inflation? 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> December 9, 2005


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/1051209c.jpg" width="353">
Recent strength in commodity prices highlight the fear that inflation is about to surge. However the concern is based not just on the gains in metals prices, for example, but on a broader array of potentially inflationary indications.1) Real economic growth amongst OECD countries has doubled to (a still moderate) 2.5% versus 2001 and growth elsewhere in the world is blistering. Chinese economic growth at 14% is up from 4% in 1999 and growth in India has nearly doubled to 8% from a 2001 low of 4.5%. 2) Though US money growth recently has declined, the five year growth rate of 6.3% is triple the growth of ten years ago. Relationships between money and inflation are not what they used to be, but financial liquidity will always be viewed as integral to the equation. The issue is examined by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in <a href="http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/review/05/09/Gavin.pdf">Monetary Instrument Matters</a><a href="http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/review/05/09/Gavin.pdf">.</a> 3) Energy prices remain elevated. Oil prices are more than 20% higher than last year&#39;s average which rose 53% from 2003 and the cold weather that has gripped much of the US has recently pushed prices up further. Most notable has been the spike in natural gas prices which yesterday were over $14/mmbtu, a rough doubling of last year&#39;s level. Crude oil prices also rose over $60/bbl. for West Texas Intermediate for the first time in a month. That rise along with a rebound in the demand for gasoline promises an end to the recent fall in retail gasoline prices. (Gasoline has a 3.9% weight in the Consumer Price Index, electricity has a 2.4% weight and natural gas&#39; weight is 1.3%.). 
For the latest Short Term Energy Outlook from the US Department of Energy click <a href="http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/contents.html">here</a>.<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/1051209f.jpg" width="353"> <img border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/1051209i.jpg" width="353">4) Gold prices recently surged over $500 per ounce and into territory not plotted since 1981. During the last twenty years there has been a fairly high 52% correlation between the level of gold and the expected rate of inflation during the next year. Most of that correlation, however, seems to reflect current pricing power. Gold&#39;s correlation with next year&#39;s growth in the CPI has been negligible. The late Jude Wanniski&#39;s thoughts on the Gold Standard can be found <a href="http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials/wanniski111897.html"> here</a> and the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland&#39;s 1998 research simply titled Gold Prices can be found <a href="http://www.clevelandfed.org/research/com98/0301.pdf"> here</a>.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/1051209d.jpg" width="353">5) The latest jump in industrial commodity prices for many is the prima fascia indication of a pending inflation pickup, but the gain seems more to reflect better economic growth. In fact industrial commodity prices have had roughly a 50% correlation with the y/y change in factory sector output during the last ten years and only a 15% correlation with the change in core goods prices in the CPI. Though even here, individual performance has been mixed. Metals prices have recovered all of the early-year drop and on average are nearly double the 2001 low, the strength paced by a near four fold rise in copper prices during the last four years. Textile prices, however, are up just 10% over four years. Further obfuscation of the issue is provided by the strong 47% correlation between industrial materials prices and the change in the overall CPI.6) An inflationary threat from rising food prices depends on how much meat is part of the diet since livestock &amp; meat prices have rebounded strongly from the mid-year lows. That misses a near 60% price rise since 2002 which has been paced 40-50% gains in beef prices, 60% higher broiler prices and 50%+ gains in pork prices. Grain price increases have been relatively tame but even coffee prices are double the 2003 level. The latest Food Price Outlook from the USDA Food Institute can be found <a href="http://www.foodinstitute.com/outlook.cfm"> here</a>.<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/1051209e.jpg" width="353"><img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/1051209j.jpg" width="353">

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/daily/@D3/@D306/@D306.HTM">Commodity Prices</a></th>
<th scope="col">12/02/05</th>
<th scope="col">12/31/04</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">JoC-ECRI All Industrials</td>
<td>116.52</td>
<td>111.55</td>
<td>2.8%</td>
<td>22.6%</td>
<td>15.6%</td>
<td>-1.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp; Textiles&nbsp;&nbsp;</td>
<td>67.70</td>
<td>64.35</td>
<td>5.1%</td>
<td>1.1%</td>
<td>9.0%</td>
<td>-2.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp; Metals</td>
<td>127.20</td>
<td>124.55</td>
<td>-0.2%</td>
<td>39.7%</td>
<td>12.5%</td>
<td>-0.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp; Miscellaneous</td>
<td>103.44</td>
<td>103.85</td>
<td>2.7%</td>
<td>10.8%</td>
<td>19.9%</td>
<td>-1.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp; Petroleum Products</td>
<td>267.70</td>
<td>216.50</td>
<td>6.6%</td>
<td>53.1%</td>
<td>22.9%</td>
<td>1.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol"></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">CRB Spot Commodity Foodstuffs</td>
<td>250.22</td>
<td>255.77</td>
<td>-8.6%</td>
<td>2.7%</td>
<td>4.6%</td>
<td>16.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">CRB Spot Commodity Livestock &amp; Products</td>
<td>358.00</td>
<td>362.63</td>
<td>-7.8%</td>
<td>-0.7%</td>
<td>14.9%</td>
<td>23.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol"></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Gold (Handy &amp; Harmon, /Troy Oz.)</td>
<td>$504.25</td>
<td>$443.40</td>
<td>11.6%</td>
<td>6.5%</td>
<td>20.7%</td>
<td>23.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol"></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">US Retail Gasoline, Regular ($/Gal.)</td>
<td>$2.19</td>
<td>$1.79</td>
<td>12.6%</td>
<td>$1.85</td>
<td>$1.56</td>
<td>$1.35</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Domestic Spot Market Price: West Texas Intermediate ($/Barrel)</td>
<td>$52.04</td>
<td>$41.78</td>
<td>33.7%</td>
<td>$41.78</td>
<td>$32.78</td>
<td>$31.23</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
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Carol Stone, CBE

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/051208b.jpg" width="353">
The dramatic impact of Hurricane Katrina on local Gulf Coast economies is starting to be quantified by various government statistics. These numbers do not, of course, begin to describe the devastation in the region, but they give it some relative context. The unemployment rate in Louisiana doubled in September and October, for instance, even as the national rate was fairly steady. Employment in Louisiana plunged 13.3% between August and October, and in Mississippi, by 6.5%. Unemployment for that state rose from 6.9% of the labor force in August to about 10% in September and October. [The state figures for October were published November 22; some metropolitan area data came out last week and smaller local areas, just yesterday, which occasions our commentary today.]<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/051208c.jpg" width="353">
Notably, there are no data for the New Orleans metropolitan area for these two months. BLS&#39;s release of November 30 explains that the quality of the data was &quot;severely compromised by the hurricane&quot;. People in the area simply had other priorities than responding to the Current Population Survey in those months. BLS obviously determined that this effect did not carry over to the state as a whole. Further, for the Gulfport/Biloxi/Pascagoula area, reporting was not harmed enough to undermine the figures that were obtained in the interviewing. They are still seen as a fair representation of actual employment conditions in the area.
The differential impact of the storm, and Rita that followed, are shown in the divergence between Louisiana and Mississippi of labor market behavior in October. Employment continued to decline in Louisiana, falling another 44,500, while it stabilized in Mississippi. The unemployment rates in Mississippi and in the Gulfport/Biloxi area fell markedly in October, though these remain outsized. Further in Louisiana, the labor force itself continued to shrink; after a decline of 115,600 in September, it went down another 52,900 in October. People were still leaving the state. The impact of Rita is shown by the behavior of the labor force in Lake Charles; it went up slightly in September as it became a place of refuge from New Orleans. But the later storm resulted in a noticeable decrease in October as people fled from there as well.<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/051208d.jpg" width="353">
Some of these went to Texas. Data for Texas as a whole seem to show little change, but the impact is somewhat evident in the Houston Consolidated area. As seen below, the unemployment rate went up to 5.9% in September; the labor force gained 24,300 but employment went up only 6,600. In October, the labor force stabilized and jobs began to catch up, so unemployment fell back. We should issue a disclaimer here; it is perhaps asking too much of the CPS survey methods to capture this effect so quickly, although BLS says they altered population controls among states to try to account for the massive interstate migration.
Clearly this was an unprecedented period in many ways, not the least of which is data collection. It is important to be able to gauge these massive changes. Further, the labor force data received different treatment than the payroll data did. BLS&#39;s &quot;CES&quot; survey was carefully calibrated to generate numbers for New Orleans establishment employment; the number of payroll jobs there fell 217,300 in September, about 35%, and rose 10,600 in October. By comparison, the average monthly change in the five years to August was zero.
These labor force data are contained in Haver&#39;s EMPLR database, and payroll employment is in the LABORR database, both part of Haver&#39;s extensive regional data offerings. 

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/EMPLOYMENT.HTM">Household Employment (Thous) &amp; Unemployment Rates:</a> Selected Areas</th>
<th scope="col">Oct 2005</th>
<th scope="col">Sep 2005</th>
<th scope="col">Aug 2005</th>
<th scope="col">Oct 2004</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Louisiana (Seas Adj): Employment </td>
<td>1733.1</td>
<td>1777.6</td>
<td>1999.1</td>
<td>1949.8</td>
<td>1940.3</td>
<td>1914.6</td>
<td>1903.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Unemployment Rate (%)</td>
<td>11.3</td>
<td>11.4</td>
<td>5.8</td>
<td>5.8</td>
<td>5.7</td>
<td>6.3</td>
<td>5.9</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">New Orleans/ Metairie/Kenner&nbsp; (SA) Employment</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>602.9</td>
<td>586.7</td>
<td>585.2</td>
<td>580.0</td>
<td>579.4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Unemployment Rate (%)</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>5.5</td>
<td>4.4</td>
<td>4.6</td>
<td>5.3</td>
<td>5.3</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Mississippi &nbsp; (SA) Employment</td>
<td>1173.5</td>
<td>1173.0</td>
<td>1255.0</td>
<td>1247.4</td>
<td>1248.1</td>
<td>1237.2</td>
<td>1219.1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Unemployment Rate (%)</td>
<td>9.6</td>
<td>10.3</td>
<td>6.9</td>
<td>6.9</td>
<td>6.2</td>
<td>6.4</td>
<td>6.7</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Gulfport/Biloxi/- Pascagoula CSA (NSA) Employment</td>
<td>138.0</td>
<td>135.7</td>
<td>180.9</td>
<td>177.0</td>
<td>179.2</td>
<td>177.8</td>
<td>174.6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Unemployment Rate (%)</td>
<td>20.8</td>
<td>25.2</td>
<td>6.1</td>
<td>6.5</td>
<td>5.5</td>
<td>5.7</td>
<td>6.2</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Houston/Baytown/- Huntsville CSA (NSA) Employment</td>
<td>2543.2</td>
<td>2533.3</td>
<td>2526.7</td>
<td>2469.1</td>
<td>2451.8</td>
<td>2417.6</td>
<td>2395.6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Unemployment Rate (%)</td>
<td>5.5</td>
<td>5.9</td>
<td>5.3</td>
<td>6.0</td>
<td>6.3</td>
<td>6.8</td>
<td>6.1</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
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The dramatic impact of Hurricane Katrina on local Gulf Coast economies is starting to be quantified by various government statistics. These numbers do not, of course, begin to describe the devastation in the region, but they give it [...]

Labor Force Data and Hurricanes

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/051208a.jpg" width="353">
Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose 6,000 to 327,000 last week following a revised 16,000 drop the prior week. Consensus expectations had been for 315,000 claims.
Hurricane related claims dropped to 8,000 and brought the total of the three storms during the last fourteen weeks to 600,000.
The four-week moving average of initial claims was about unchanged at 322,500 (-4.8% y/y).
Continuing unemployment insurance claims fell 137,000 following a 57,000 decline the prior week which was deeper than initially reported.
The insured rate of unemployment fell to 2.0% from a downwardly revised 2.1% the prior week.
Monetary Policy with Imperfect Knowledge, a working paper from economists at the Federal Reserve board, is available <a href="http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/feds/2005/200551/200551pap.pdf"> here</a>.
Can Financial Innovation Help to Explain the Reduced Volatility of Economic Activity? is another working paper published by the Federal Reserve Board and can be found <a href="http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/feds/2005/200554/200554pap.pdf"> here</a>. 

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/WEEKLY/@W5/@W507/@W507.HTM">Unemployment Insurance (000s)</a></th>
<th scope="col">12/03/05</th>
<th scope="col">11/26/05</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Initial Claims</td>
<td>327</td>
<td>321</td>
<td>-6.3%</td>
<td>343</td>
<td>402</td>
<td>404</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Continuing Claims</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>2,603</td>
<td>-5.9%</td>
<td>2,926</td>
<td>3,531</td>
<td>3,570</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose 6,000 to 327,000 last week following a revised 16,000 drop the prior week. Consensus expectations had been for 315,000 claims. Hurricane related claims dropped to 8,000 and brought the [...]

Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Up Modestly

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/051208a.jpg" width="353">
Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose 6,000 to 327,000 last week following a revised 16,000 drop the prior week. Consensus expectations had been for 315,000 claims.
Hurricane related claims dropped to 8,000 and brought the total of the three storms during the last fourteen weeks to 600,000.
The four-week moving average of initial claims was about unchanged at 322,500 (-4.8% y/y).
Continuing unemployment insurance claims fell 137,000 following a 57,000 decline the prior week which was deeper than initially reported.
The insured rate of unemployment fell to 2.0% from a downwardly revised 2.1% the prior week.
Monetary Policy with Imperfect Knowledge, a working paper from economists at the Federal Reserve board, is available <a href="http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/feds/2005/200551/200551pap.pdf"> here</a>.
Can Financial Innovation Help to Explain the Reduced Volatility of Economic Activity? is another working paper published by the Federal Reserve Board and can be found <a href="http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/feds/2005/200554/200554pap.pdf"> here</a>. 

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/WEEKLY/@W5/@W507/@W507.HTM">Unemployment Insurance (000s)</a></th>
<th scope="col">12/03/05</th>
<th scope="col">11/26/05</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Initial Claims</td>
<td>327</td>
<td>321</td>
<td>-6.3%</td>
<td>343</td>
<td>402</td>
<td>404</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Continuing Claims</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>2,603</td>
<td>-5.9%</td>
<td>2,926</td>
<td>3,531</td>
<td>3,570</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Labor Force Data and Hurricanes 
by <a href="/comment/Stone.html">Carol Stone</a> December 8, 2005


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/051208b.jpg" width="353">
The dramatic impact of Hurricane Katrina on local Gulf Coast economies is starting to be quantified by various government statistics. These numbers do not, of course, begin to describe the devastation in the region, but they give it some relative context. The unemployment rate in Louisiana doubled in September and October, for instance, even as the national rate was fairly steady. Employment in Louisiana plunged 13.3% between August and October, and in Mississippi, by 6.5%. Unemployment for that state rose from 6.9% of the labor force in August to about 10% in September and October. [The state figures for October were published November 22; some metropolitan area data came out last week and smaller local areas, just yesterday, which occasions our commentary today.]<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/051208c.jpg" width="353">
Notably, there are no data for the New Orleans metropolitan area for these two months. BLS&#39;s release of November 30 explains that the quality of the data was &quot;severely compromised by the hurricane&quot;. People in the area simply had other priorities than responding to the Current Population Survey in those months. BLS obviously determined that this effect did not carry over to the state as a whole. Further, for the Gulfport/Biloxi/Pascagoula area, reporting was not harmed enough to undermine the figures that were obtained in the interviewing. They are still seen as a fair representation of actual employment conditions in the area.
The differential impact of the storm, and Rita that followed, are shown in the divergence between Louisiana and Mississippi of labor market behavior in October. Employment continued to decline in Louisiana, falling another 44,500, while it stabilized in Mississippi. The unemployment rates in Mississippi and in the Gulfport/Biloxi area fell markedly in October, though these remain outsized. Further in Louisiana, the labor force itself continued to shrink; after a decline of 115,600 in September, it went down another 52,900 in October. People were still leaving the state. The impact of Rita is shown by the behavior of the labor force in Lake Charles; it went up slightly in September as it became a place of refuge from New Orleans. But the later storm resulted in a noticeable decrease in October as people fled from there as well.<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/051208d.jpg" width="353">
Some of these went to Texas. Data for Texas as a whole seem to show little change, but the impact is somewhat evident in the Houston Consolidated area. As seen below, the unemployment rate went up to 5.9% in September; the labor force gained 24,300 but employment went up only 6,600. In October, the labor force stabilized and jobs began to catch up, so unemployment fell back. We should issue a disclaimer here; it is perhaps asking too much of the CPS survey methods to capture this effect so quickly, although BLS says they altered population controls among states to try to account for the massive interstate migration.
Clearly this was an unprecedented period in many ways, not the least of which is data collection. It is important to be able to gauge these massive changes. Further, the labor force data received different treatment than the payroll data did. BLS&#39;s &quot;CES&quot; survey was carefully calibrated to generate numbers for New Orleans establishment employment; the number of payroll jobs there fell 217,300 in September, about 35%, and rose 10,600 in October. By comparison, the average monthly change in the five years to August was zero.
These labor force data are contained in Haver&#39;s EMPLR database, and payroll employment is in the LABORR database, both part of Haver&#39;s extensive regional data offerings. 

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/EMPLOYMENT.HTM">Household Employment (Thous) &amp; Unemployment Rates:</a> Selected Areas</th>
<th scope="col">Oct 2005</th>
<th scope="col">Sep 2005</th>
<th scope="col">Aug 2005</th>
<th scope="col">Oct 2004</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Louisiana (Seas Adj): Employment </td>
<td>1733.1</td>
<td>1777.6</td>
<td>1999.1</td>
<td>1949.8</td>
<td>1940.3</td>
<td>1914.6</td>
<td>1903.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Unemployment Rate (%)</td>
<td>11.3</td>
<td>11.4</td>
<td>5.8</td>
<td>5.8</td>
<td>5.7</td>
<td>6.3</td>
<td>5.9</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">New Orleans/ Metairie/Kenner&nbsp; (SA) Employment</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>602.9</td>
<td>586.7</td>
<td>585.2</td>
<td>580.0</td>
<td>579.4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Unemployment Rate (%)</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>5.5</td>
<td>4.4</td>
<td>4.6</td>
<td>5.3</td>
<td>5.3</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Mississippi &nbsp; (SA) Employment</td>
<td>1173.5</td>
<td>1173.0</td>
<td>1255.0</td>
<td>1247.4</td>
<td>1248.1</td>
<td>1237.2</td>
<td>1219.1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Unemployment Rate (%)</td>
<td>9.6</td>
<td>10.3</td>
<td>6.9</td>
<td>6.9</td>
<td>6.2</td>
<td>6.4</td>
<td>6.7</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Gulfport/Biloxi/- Pascagoula CSA (NSA) Employment</td>
<td>138.0</td>
<td>135.7</td>
<td>180.9</td>
<td>177.0</td>
<td>179.2</td>
<td>177.8</td>
<td>174.6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Unemployment Rate (%)</td>
<td>20.8</td>
<td>25.2</td>
<td>6.1</td>
<td>6.5</td>
<td>5.5</td>
<td>5.7</td>
<td>6.2</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Houston/Baytown/- Huntsville CSA (NSA) Employment</td>
<td>2543.2</td>
<td>2533.3</td>
<td>2526.7</td>
<td>2469.1</td>
<td>2451.8</td>
<td>2417.6</td>
<td>2395.6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Unemployment Rate (%)</td>
<td>5.5</td>
<td>5.9</td>
<td>5.3</td>
<td>6.0</td>
<td>6.3</td>
<td>6.8</td>
<td>6.1</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/051207c.jpg" width="353">
The Australian economy expanded a mere 0.2% in Q3, according to data reported at midday today, Canberra time. This was the smallest quarterly increase in a year. Australian GDP data are expressed in chained A$, with fiscal 2004 as the reference year, Q3 2003 to Q2 2004. Press reports and market participants focused on the &quot;slow&quot; advance, and the A$ fell in foreign exchange markets.
However, Q2 growth was an outsized 1.3%, and as seen in the table below, included sizable gains in private fixed investment, 6.7%, and government consumption, 1.3%. Thus, the small Q3 result could mark a return to a more normal path, rather than a cyclical weakening. The investment item slowed to a 0.5% increase in Q3 and government spending decreased by 0.6%. Exports were also strong in both Q1 and Q2, so their shrinkage in Q3 could also be more a reaction to that strength than a turn toward a new trend. In the meantime, household consumption is growing fairly steadily, with 0.6% in both Q2 and Q3, making a 2.8% annualized rate for the first three quarters of this year.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/051207d.jpg" width="353">
Even with the moderation in Q3, the capital formation figures highlight strength in business investment generally. Nonresidential buildings and other structures are up 24.5% from a year ago, showing 2005 as a rebound year after a slowdown last year to &quot;only&quot; 4.2% growth. Five-year expansion of those capital investments has run at an 8.7% annual rate. Machinery and equipment expenditures have had an erratic quarterly pattern, down in Q1, up 10.6% in Q2 and up a slim 1.5% in Q3, but they are running 15% above a year ago, close in line with 16% over the past four years.
Thus, despite the Q3 slowdown, the Australian economy looks vigorous, with growth in several diverse sectors. Obviously, though, as with all countries, prospects for the months ahead are clouded with the high cost of energy.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/ANZ/@A1/@A102/@A102.HTM">Australia GDP Chain 2003/04 A$</a></th>
<th scope="col">Q3 2005</th>
<th scope="col">Q2 2005</th>
<th scope="col">Q1 2005</th>
<th scope="col">From Q3 2004</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Real GDP</td>
<td>0.2</td>
<td>1.3</td>
<td>0.7</td>
<td>2.6</td>
<td>3.5</td>
<td>3.1</td>
<td>4.1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Consumption: Households</td>
<td>0.6</td>
<td>0.6</td>
<td>0.8</td>
<td>2.7</td>
<td>5.7</td>
<td>3.8</td>
<td>3.9</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Government</td>
<td>-0.6</td>
<td>1.3</td>
<td>-0.1</td>
<td>1.6</td>
<td>3.7</td>
<td>3.7</td>
<td>3.1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Private Fixed Capital Form.</td>
<td>0.5</td>
<td>6.7</td>
<td>-1.6</td>
<td>9.5</td>
<td>6.9</td>
<td>10.7</td>
<td>17.7</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Public Fixed Capital Form.</td>
<td>-5.2</td>
<td>-0.2</td>
<td>1.5</td>
<td>0.2</td>
<td>13.1</td>
<td>-0.8</td>
<td>5.9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Exports</td>
<td>-2.3</td>
<td>2.0</td>
<td>1.0</td>
<td>2.6</td>
<td>4.0</td>
<td>-2.2</td>
<td>0.0</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">-Imports</td>
<td>-0.5</td>
<td>2.0</td>
<td>1.6</td>
<td>8.3</td>
<td>15.1</td>
<td>10.5</td>
<td>10.7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Domestic Final Demand</td>
<td>0.2</td>
<td>2.0</td>
<td>0.2</td>
<td>3.8</td>
<td>5.9</td>
<td>5.0</td>
<td>6.4</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Gross Value Added</td>
<td>0.0</td>
<td>1.2</td>
<td>0.4</td>
<td>1.9</td>
<td>3.8</td>
<td>2.6</td>
<td>4.1</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

The Australian economy expanded a mere 0.2% in Q3, according to data reported at midday today, Canberra time. This was the smallest quarterly increase in a year. Australian GDP data are expressed in chained A$, with fiscal 2004 as the [...]

Australian GDP Slows to 0.2% Growth in Q3, But Q2's 1.3% Was Strong

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/051207a.jpg" width="353">
According to the Mortgage Bankers Association, the 5.2% rise in the total number of mortgage applications last week recovered virtually all of the prior two weeks&#39; decline. Nevertheless, the rebound left the recent level 26% below the peak in early June.
The performance ofpurchase applications is consistent with a topping, but not at all a collapse, in the housing market. Purchase applications rose 4.0% last week and added to a several weekly gains during November. The latest lifted the level 4.7% ahead of the November average which had inched up 0.8% from October.
Purchase applications nevertheless remain 5% below the Spring peak. During the last ten years there has been a 49% correlation between the y/y change in purchase applications and the change in new plus existing single family home sales.
A 7.6% w/w rise in applications to refinance recovered the sharp decline of the prior week but applications had fallen hard for six successive weeks and the latest level was down 2.8% from the November average. Versus the June peak, the latest level of refis is down 46%.
The effective interest rate on a conventional 30-year mortgage rose further last week to 6.58% from 6.44% the prior week. Rates averaged 6.52% in November and averaged 5.81% in June. The effective rate on a 15-year mortgage also rose to 6.18% from 6.04%. The interest rates on 15 and 30 year mortgages are closely correlated (&gt;90%) with the rate on 10 year Treasury securities.
The Mortgage Bankers Association surveys between 20 to 35 of the top lenders in the U.S. housing industry to derive its refinance, purchase and market indexes. The weekly survey accounts for more than 40% of all applications processed each week by mortgage lenders. Visit the Mortgage Bankers Association site <a href="http://www.mbaa.org">here</a>.
Trends in Home Ownership from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis can be found <a href="http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/net/20051201/cover.pdf"> here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/SURVEYW/@S5/@S5.HTM">MBA Mortgage Applications (3/16/90=100)</a></th>
<th scope="col">12/02/05</th>
<th scope="col">11/18/05</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Total Market Index</td>
<td>656.7</td>
<td>624.1</td>
<td>-5.7%</td>
<td>735.1</td>
<td>1,067.9</td>
<td>799.7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Purchase</td>
<td>495.1</td>
<td>476.2</td>
<td>0.9%</td>
<td>454.5</td>
<td>395.1</td>
<td>354.7</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Refinancing</td>
<td>1,596.4</td>
<td>1,484.3</td>
<td>-15.6%</td>
<td>2,366.8</td>
<td>4,981.8</td>
<td>3,388.0</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

According to the Mortgage Bankers Association, the 5.2% rise in the total number of mortgage applications last week recovered virtually all of the prior two weeks' decline. Nevertheless, the rebound left the recent level 26% below the [...]

Mortgage Applications Recover Some

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/051207b.jpg" width="353">
Challenger, Grey &amp; Christmas reported that job cut announcements in November rose for the third consecutive month. The 22.1% rise to 99,279 followed a 13.2% rise the prior month and pulled the three month average of job cut announcements up to 84,139 (-19.7% y/y).
During the last ten years there has been an 84% (inverse) correlation between the three month moving average of announced job cuts and the three month change payroll employment.
Job cut announcements differ from layoffs. Many are achieved through attrition, early retirement or just never occur.
The aerospace (+251% y/y) and auto (+42% y/y) industries reported notable m/m increases in layoffs as did the financial (22.0% y/y) and the pharmaceutical (1,046% y/y) industries. These increases were somewhat offset by declines in retail (-31.8% y/y) and telecommunications (-71.2% y/y).
Challenger also reported that announced hiring plans rose sharply (413.8% y/y) for the second consecutive month.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/SURVEYS/@S3/@S301/@S301.HTM">Challenger, Gray &amp; Christmas</a></th>
<th scope="col">Nov</th>
<th scope="col">Oct</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Announced Job Cuts</td>
<td>99,279</td>
<td>81,301</td>
<td>-5.0%</td>
<td>1,039,175</td>
<td>1,236,426</td>
<td>1,431,052</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

Challenger, Grey & Christmas reported that job cut announcements in November rose for the third consecutive month. The 22.1% rise to 99,279 followed a 13.2% rise the prior month and pulled the three month average of job cut [...]

Challenger Layoffs Up Third Straight Month in November

Crude oil price has returned to pre-conflict level but traffic through Hormuz still subpar

Surging orders for computers and electronics propelling durable goods orders

Next year's inflation forecasts are on the rise and above target

Disrupted global supply chains placing upward pressure on US goods prices

Construction of data centers has overtaken transportation construction in US

Elevated energy prices putting intense upward pressure on input prices around the globe

US is big leader in global surge in private AI investment

Larger-than-usual income tax refunds this year are supporting consumer spending

Sharply rising share of AI-related jobs

Inflationary impact of surge in oil prices larger in Europe than in the US

Futures market thinks the price of oil will recede significantly over the next six months

Recent pickup in US defense orders could help support overall growth ahead

Cost of transporting crude oil has soared to series high

Market-based inflation expectations have not yet reflected recent surge in oil prices

Global equity markets are fearing a major economic disruption from soaring oil prices

Is recent drop in sentiment signaling softer growth ahead?

With the Iran conflict, geopolitical risk has soared to alarming levels

Soaring AI-related investment in US underpinning strong contribution of business spending to overall growth

AI-related outperformance of IP in Advanced Asia ex Japan

Resilient US economy pushing up Blue Chip 2026 outlook

US and China big leaders in adoption of AI models

Robust US demand for advanced technology products

China's export growth rotating away from the US

More pronounced upward revisions in countries more exposed to AI investment

Stable job openings and hiring rates point to cautious hiring

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Sandy Batten

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The luster fell a bit off the employment rose in June with nonfarm payrolls rising 57,000 against expectations of a 115,000 increase, according to today’s report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Moreover, the increases previously reported for April and May were revised down by a total of 74,000. Upon revision, payrolls increased 148,000 in April versus 179,000 previously reported and rose 129,000 in May versus 172,000 previously reported. The average increase over the past three months fell to 111,000 from 164,000 in May while the average increase over the past six months rose to 92,000 in June, its highest reading since February 2025, from 80,000 in May. Both remain on a modest uptrend and much stronger than payroll gains last year. In 2025, monthly payroll gains averaged only 10,000.

The weaker-than-expected payroll report was reinforced by a weak report from the **household survey**. While the number of unemployed fell 213,000 and the unemployment rate edged down to 4.2% from 4.3% in May, the number of employed slumped 507,000 in June, the largest monthly decline since May 2025 (with population adjustment to January 2026). The labor force plunged 720,000 with the labor force participation rate falling to 61.5%, its lowest level since March 2021.

Growth of average hourly earnings (AHE), a key variable for the Federal Reserve, was relatively well behaved in June. AHE increased 0.3% m/m, the same monthly gain as in May, in line with expectations. The y/y rate of advance edged up to 3.5% in June from 3.4% in May. Wage growth in private services-producing firms picked up in June, rising 0.4% m/m (3.4% y/y) versus 0.2% m/m (3.2% y/y) in May. Goods-producing wages increased 0.2% m/m in June after 0.3% monthly gains in both April and May with the y/y rate holding at 4.1%.

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In the **establishment survey**, private-sector employment was also weaker than expected in June, increasing only 49,000 against an expected 115,000 increase. Moreover, April and May figures were also revised down by a total of 50,000. Government employment rose 8,000 following a 32,000 increase in May. Private goods-producing employment increased 10,000, its largest monthly gain in three months with an 11,000 gain in construction and a 3,000 rise in manufacturing jobs, the first increase in three months. In contrast, services-producing employment increased only 39,000 in June, its weakest monthly performance in four months. Private education and health services jobs posted another solid gain of 69,000, up from 45,000 in May. However, retail jobs fell 7,500, their first monthly decline in four months, and leisure and hospitality jobs slumped 61,000, their largest monthly decline since December 2020, after increasing 40,000 in May. There had been speculation in the market that the World Cup would generate additional leisure and hospitality jobs, but this obviously failed to pan out. On a brighter note, although the one-month payroll diffusion index, a measure of the breadth of job gains, slipped to 54.4 in June from 56.0 in May, it remained well above the key 50 level that indicates that more industries were adding jobs than losing them.

The length of the workweek was unchanged at 34.3 hours in June with the aggregate weekly hours index edging up 0.1% m/m, the same monthly gain as in May. The aggregate hours index rose 1.3% q/q saar in Q2, the fastest quarterly gain in four quarters, providing a solid base for Q2 real GDP growth. The goods-producing workweek was unchanged at 40.1 hours, the highest since January 2023, while the private service-producing workweek edged down to 33.2 hours from 33.3 hours in May.

The employment and earnings data are collected from surveys taken each month during the week containing the 12th day of the month. The labor market data are contained in Haver's **USECON** database. Detailed figures are in the **EMPL** and **LABOR** databases. The expectations figures are in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased 57,000 in June with meaningful downward revisions to both April and May.
- The market consensus looked for a 115,000 increase.
- The unemployment rate edged down to 4.2% from 4.3%, due mostly to a large decrease in the labor force.
- Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% m/m (3.5% y/y), in line with expectations.

U.S. Payroll Employment Gains Smaller than Expected in June

Robert Brusca

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Unemployment rates in the European Monetary Union (EMU) were steady in May at 6.2%, the same level as in April, after April had fallen to 6.2% from 6.3%. The 6.2% reading is the lowest for the community since it was formed. Meanwhile, for the larger community, the EU, the unemployment rate has stabilized at 5.9%, the same as in April, again, a tick lower than it was in March. This 5.9% reading is a tick above the historic low for the European Union (EU). In both cases, the performance of these two economic conglomerations is quite excellent.

**Monthly**
The table looks at 12 of the most senior members of the monetary union, including an observation for the United Kingdom based on its claimant-count unemployment rate, presented at the bottom of the table. In May, the monetary union saw 4 of 12 members in the table with lower unemployment rates than they had in April. In April, five members had lower unemployment rates than in March. In March, seven members had lower unemployment rates than they posted in February. The progression to lower unemployment rates has slowed based on monthly data.

**Sequentially**
Looking at changes in the unemployment rates over broader sequential periods—three months, six months, and 12 months—6 out of 12 reporters have lower unemployment rates over three months; 7 have lower unemployment rates over six months; only 4 report unemployment rates that are lower over 12 months. The broader periods for comparison show changes in the unemployment rates that report more declines over the shorter and more recent periods compared to the longer/older periods. This is not the same trend leaning that we get from the last three months of data. It'll be good to watch these developments in the coming months to see if the tendency to lower unemployment rates is slowing or whether dropping unemployment is continuing in force.

**Rankings**
The ranking of unemployment rates since 1990 finds only three of these 12 monetary union members with unemployment rates above their medians. Those are Luxembourg, with a 98.2 percentile standing, Finland with an 81.9 percentile standing, and Austria with a 76.6 percentile standing. Italy, on the other hand, is reporting the lowest unemployment rate that it has seen during this period. The Greek unemployment rate has been this low or lower only about 3% of the time, while in Spain the unemployment rate has been this low or lower 11% of the time. For Portugal, the unemployment ranking figure has been weaker 13% of the time. The monetary union continues to report excellent labor market results even though economic growth has been relatively disappointing.

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**Summing up and central bankers**
In the wake of the monetary conference in the Sintra this past week, central banks featuring contributions from the European Central Bank, the Bank of England, the Federal Reserve, and the Bank of Canada, saw central bank heads talking about getting back to basics and stopping the use of some of the newer tools that had been pressed into service after the great financial crisis and during COVID. Bankers are getting back to basics to focus on short-term interest rates and say they will stop fiddling with the size of the balance sheet and to largely set aside the use of forward guidance. It will take time to determine what these changes are going to mean in terms of how policy performs and how markets will react. While there was a lot of discussion, and in some places concerns about the loss of forward guidance, what is clear is that, with forward guidance gone, there will be more volatility; however, the markets will be freer to price economic events themselves and will not be so stuck to the outlook of the central bank.  That could turn out to be a gigantic win for both markets and central bankers.

Europe

Unemployment Remains Quite Low in Europe

Andrew Cates

**Tightening Bias Intact, but Unevenly Distributed**
The July Blue Chip Financial Forecasts survey's expectations for policy rate changes over the next twelve months reveal a striking divergence across the major advanced economies, as chart 1 below makes clear. Across the board, the rate outlook is higher than it was in late February, before the US-Iran conflict escalated: the energy price shock and its inflationary consequences have left an imprint on the panel's thinking, even as oil prices have since retreated. Japan tops the list with an expected increase of around 40 basis points, reflecting the building pressure on the Bank of Japan to respond to yen weakness and still-elevated domestic inflation. Canada and the euro area also sit firmly in positive territory, with expected increases of around 30 and 20 basis points respectively. The US and the UK, by contrast, are in negative territory — the US barely so, the UK more distinctly, with the panel pencilling in modest rate reductions over the coming year. This pattern is not simply a reflection of where each economy sits in the inflation cycle. It also encodes a judgement about the current stance of monetary policy: in Japan, the euro area and Canada, policy is likely seen as insufficiently tight relative to the inflation challenge, and the conflict has reinforced that view. In the US and UK, by contrast, policy is judged to be closer to or already beyond neutral, meaning the next move is more likely to be an easing than a further tightening — even if, in the US case, that easing has been pushed well into 2027.

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**When Will the Next Move Come?**
Chart 2 below adds a timing dimension to the rate outlook, showing where the BCFF panel currently places the next policy move for the Fed, ECB, Bank of England and Bank of Japan. For the BoJ, the distribution is concentrated around the near term, with a significant share of respondents expecting action in September or October — consistent with the building pressure illustrated in chart 1 and with the BoJ’s next scheduled decision on 31 July. For the ECB, September or later than November emerge as the most likely timing for the next step. The Bank of England panel is more spread, with a meaningful share expecting action to come later. For the Fed, the dominant view places the next move firmly in the ‘later’ category, consistent with the BCFF consensus that the Fed funds rate will hold through the rest of 2026, with a first cut not expected until Q2 2027. Under chair Kevin Warsh, the June FOMC meeting delivered a hawkish dot plot that shifted some participants toward a hike before year-end, but the panel as a whole has not moved that far.

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**Headline Up, Core Contained: The Inflation Picture Across Advanced Economies**
One of the more reassuring features of the current inflation episode has been the limited pass-through from energy prices to underlying price dynamics. Across the advanced economies, headline CPI inflation has risen materially since the conflict escalated in March, driven overwhelmingly by consumer energy costs. Core inflation — stripping out food and energy — has edged higher, but only modestly, suggesting that second-round effects remain contained for now. In the United States, the pressures are arguably more alarming, with core PCE rising sharply between February and May to its highest level since October 2023. In the euro area, the focus this week has been firmly on Eurostat's June flash CPI estimate, published yesterday. Headline inflation fell back to 2.8% from a peak of 3.2% in May, as energy costs — the main driver of the surge since the conflict began — eased meaningfully. Crucially, core inflation also ticked down, and services inflation retreated as well. The June data therefore tell a broadly reassuring story: the energy shock is unwinding without leaving a lasting imprint on underlying price dynamics — precisely what the ECB will have been hoping for.

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**Consumer Price Expectations: Are Households Convinced?**
The aggregate inflation picture looks relatively contained at the macro level, but whether households are similarly reassured is a separate question. Chart 4 below draws on the European Commission's consumer survey data on price expectations — one of the more timely and widely watched indicators of inflation psychology in the euro area. The survey captures whether consumers expect prices to rise, stay the same or fall over the coming twelve months, and its relationship with actual inflation outturns has historically been close. A sustained elevation in consumer price expectations risks becoming self-fulfilling, feeding into wage demands and pricing behaviour in ways that complicate the ECB's task considerably. The June survey, however, brought an encouraging development: expectations fell steeply, suggesting that households have begun to register the reversal in energy prices and the broader easing of the inflationary impulse. That said, the absolute level of expectations remains elevated relative to the pre-conflict period, and one month's decline does not constitute a trend. Whether the June reading marks the beginning of a sustained normalisation — or proves a temporary dip before expectations re-anchor at a higher level — will be one of the key variables shaping the ECB's decision calculus in the months ahead.

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**Japan: A Weak Yen at the Worst Possible Time**
Japan occupies a particularly uncomfortable position in the current global conjuncture. The yen has depreciated to levels not seen since December 1986, with USD/JPY touching 162 this week. The move reflects the persistence of a large interest rate differential: even as the Bank of Japan has continued its gradual tightening, the Fed’s hawkish pivot under chair Kevin Warsh — with the mid-June FOMC dot plot signalling a possible hike before year-end — has reinforced the carry trade dynamics weighing on the currency. For Japan, which imports virtually all of its energy, yen weakness at a time of still-elevated global oil prices is a double burden, amplifying domestic inflation and squeezing real incomes. Verbal warnings from Japan’s Finance Ministry have had only a modest and short-lived effect on the exchange rate. The Bank of Japan’s next policy decision is on 31 July, and the pressure to act more decisively is building. The BCFF panel’s July survey revised upward its expectation for a stronger US dollar against the yen over the coming year — consistent with the fundamental picture that chart 5 below describes.

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**AI: Optimism on the Technology, Scepticism on the Price**
Returning to the BCFF survey, its special questions reveal a panel that continues to look beyond the current cyclical turbulence toward a longer-horizon structural narrative. On artificial intelligence, respondents are broadly optimistic: 45% expect a noticeable impact on US productivity and growth within one to three years, with a further 45% believing those effects are already becoming evident. That is a striking degree of conviction about a technology whose macro-level productivity impact remains, by most empirical measures, still to fully materialise. Yet the same panellists are considerably more cautious about financial markets than about the technology itself. Nearly all respondents believe that expected AI gains are already fully reflected — or even over-reflected — in current asset prices. Chart 6 below captures this tension. It is a combination — high conviction on transformative potential, high scepticism on current valuations — that has historically been associated with stretched risk premia and vulnerability to disappointment, even where the underlying technology story ultimately proves correct.

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Global financial markets have had a more settled feel this week, reflecting the continued unwinding of the geopolitical risk premium that had built up during the worst of the US-Iran conflict. Oil prices have fallen further, equity markets have been broadly supported, and incoming inflation data — notably the euro area’s June flash CPI estimate — have come in below expectations. The US holiday-shortened week ahead, with Independence Day on Friday, is likely to keep volumes thin and activity subdued. The bigger picture, however, remains one of tension between a more benign near-term inflation trajectory and central banks that may not yet be ready to stand down. In the charts below we look first at what the latest Blue Chip Financial Forecasts (BCFF) survey reveals about the expected change in and timing of policy rates across the major economies (charts 1 and 2), then at the divergence between headline and core inflation across the advanced economies (chart 3), and at what euro area consumers are more specifically expecting about inflation in the period ahead (chart 4). We turn next to Japan and the yen’s slide this week to 40-year lows (chart 5), and finally to the BCFF survey’s special questions on artificial intelligence and asset valuations (chart 6).

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Charts of the Week: Forecasters Hold Firm

Winnie Tapasanun

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The ISM U.S. manufacturing PMI fell to a lower-than-expected 53.3 in June, the first m/m fall since February, following a 1.3-point increase to 54.0 in May, according to data from the Institute for Supply Management. The June reading, above the 50 expansion-contraction threshold, indicated the U.S. manufacturing sector expanded for the sixth straight month, albeit at a slightly slower pace. A reading of 53.8 for June had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The June manufacturing PMI, while above a contraction-level 49.0 in June 2025 and a low of 47.0 in October 2024, remained below a peak of 63.8 in March 2021.

The production index declined to 52.2 in June from 54.3 in May, indicating production expanded for the eighth consecutive month but at the slowest pace since December. The index was above a low of 44.8 in April 2025 but below a peak of 66.5 in March 2021. In June, 19.0% (NSA) of respondents reported higher production while 13.0% reported lower production. The new orders index slipped to 56.0 in June from 56.8 in May, signaling new orders grew for the sixth straight month following four successive months of contraction. The index remained well above a low of 41.8 in January 2023 but below a high of 67.0 in May 2021. In June, 22.3% (NSA) of respondents reported higher new orders while 13.4% reported declines. The inventories index climbed to 51.4 in June from 49.9 in May, marking the first expansion since April 2025. The index was slightly below a high of 52.7 in March 2025 but above a low of 43.8 in October 2024. Meanwhile, the supplier deliveries index fell to 57.4 in June from 60.6 in May and April, indicating slowing delivery performance for the seventh consecutive month after faster deliveries in November. In June, 18.1% (NSA) of respondents reported slower delivery speeds while 3.4% reported faster speeds.

On the labor front, the employment index improved to 49.7 in June from 48.6 in May, showing employment contracted for the 33rd straight month but at the slowest contraction pace since January 2025. The index was above a low of 44.1 in November 2025 but below a high of 56.5 in March 2022. In June, 16.2% (NSA) of respondents reported higher employment while 13.8% reported lower hiring.

On the pricing front, the prices paid index fell to a still-high 73.0 (NSA) in June, a 9.1-point drop—the largest decline since July 2022—from 82.1 in May, indicating raw materials prices rose for the 21st straight month but at the slowest rising pace since February. The index remained well above a low of 39.4 in December 2022 but below a high of 87.1 in March 2022 and a peak of 92.1 in June 2021. In June, 55.1% (NSA) of respondents reported higher prices while 9.2% reported price declines.

In other ISM series not included in the composite index, the new export orders index fell to 48.5 in June from 50.6 in May, indicating new export orders contracted for the third time in four months. The index was up from a low of 40.1 in May 2025 but down from a high of 52.4 in January 2025 and a peak of 57.1 in February 2022. The imports index edged down to 52.9 in June from 53.0 in May, suggesting imports expanded for the fifth successive month. The index was below its recent high of 54.9 in February but above a low of 39.9 in May 2025. The order backlog index decreased to 50.5 (NSA) in June from 52.2 in May, showing backlog levels grew at the slowest pace in six months. The index was below a high of 56.6 in February and a peak of 70.6 in May 2021 but well above a low of 37.5 in May 2023.

The ISM figures are based on responses from over 400 purchasing and supply executives from 18 industries, which are weighted according to each industry’s contribution to GDP. These data are diffusion indexes where a reading above 50 indicates expansion; below 50 indicates contraction. The ISM Manufacturing PMI is a composite index based on the diffusion indexes of five of the indexes (seasonally adjusted) with equal weights: New Orders, Production, Employment, Supplier Deliveries, and Inventories. The figures from the Institute for Supply Management can be found in Haver’s **USECON** database; further detail is found in the **SURVEYS** database. The expectations number is available in Haver’s **AS1REPNA** database.

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- ISM Mfg. PMI down slightly to 53.3 in June; sixth straight month above 50.
- Production (52.2) expands for the eighth consecutive mth.; new orders (56.0) for the sixth successive mth.
- Employment (49.7) contracts for the 33rd straight mth.; at the slowest contraction pace since Jan. ’25.
- Prices Index (73.0) at a four-month low, still indicating prices rising for the 21st consecutive mth.
- Exports (48.5) contract for the third time in four mths.; imports (52.9) continue to grow.

U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI Still Expansionary in June; New Orders and Production Growing at a Slower Pace; Employment Contracting

Michael J. Moran

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The monthly report on construction activity receives scant attention in the financial press, and investors and traders in financial markets typically pay little heed. However, it is a valuable report for economists, as it provides a broad-based view of building activity, covering private residential and business construction, as well as government-related activity. The figures feed into the calculation of GDP. Unfortunately, results have been soft since early 2025.

Total construction activity rose 0.1 percent in May, marking the third consecutive increase. However, the gains have not been especially large, averaging 0.3%, and they have barely dented the string of weak readings in the preceding 17 months. The year-over-year change in May totaled -1.5%.

Private residential construction, the largest component of the total (41% share), rose 0.3% in May, adding to an average gain of 1.1% in the prior two months and leaving a year-over-year increase of 1.8% (chart, upper left). Most of the advance in the past year was the result of improvements to existing homes (up 8.1%). Construction of new multi-family units has shown little net change in the past year or so, while new single-family building has traced a mild downward trend (off 4.0% in the past year). Public construction has been flat in the past year, with both the federal government and state and local governments showing little net change (chart, upper right).

Private nonresidential construction (34% of the total) has received considerable press attention in the past few years because of explosive growth in the building of data centers. Growth has indeed been vigorous. Building started in 2020 and grew moderately at first, but this sector took off in 2022, about the time when artificial intelligence models became publicly available (chart, lower left, in levels to show the strong trend more clearly). Average annual growth for the three years ended 2025 totaled 48%.

Interestingly, despite the rapid growth in the building of data centers, the private nonresidential sector has been the weakest area of the construction report, with activity trending lower since early 2025 (chart, lower right). Some components of private nonresidential construction have held steady or improved (e.g. amusement & recreation, electric power), but three areas stand out on the soft side: general office, commercial, and manufacturing.

The construction figures can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in **AS1REPNA**.

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- Building activity in the US was firm in 2023 and 2024, but it has lost ground since then.
- Government-related construction and private residential building have been little changed in the past year or so.
- Private nonresidential construction has been notably weak, despite robust activity in the building of data centers.

Economy in Brief

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U.S. Consumer Sentiment Stronger Than Expected

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Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Up Modestly

Australian GDP Slows to 0.2% Growth in Q3, But Q2's 1.3% Was Strong

Mortgage Applications Recover Some

Challenger Layoffs Up Third Straight Month in November