Louise Curley

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<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/071106h.jpg" align="left" border="0" height="265" width="353">
The index of German new orders for manufacturing goods fell
2.6% in September to 133.6 (2000=100) from August, but was still more
than 5% above September, 2006. The index of manufacturing sales fell
1.1% in September from August but was 4.2% above September 2006. The
first chart shows the indexes for manufacturing new orders and sales.
Domestic orders declined 3.2% and foreign orders 2.2%. The
greater decline in domestic orders is somewhat misleading. Included in
the foreign orders are orders from the Euro Area countries which are
not affected by currency changes. In September orders from these
countries increased 0.7% while foreign orders from non Euro area
countries declined by 4.6%. It is these non Euro Area countries that
have been affected by the rise in the euro. The significant decline in
their new orders attests to the impact of the higher euro. The second
chart shows the indexes of domestic new orders and the Euro Area and
non Euro Area new orders.
All three areas--domestic, Euro Area and non Euro Area--have
also been affected by the uncertainties caused by after effects of the
turmoil in the US sub prime mortgage market. These effects are seen in
the decline in sales to these areas. Manufacturing sales to the
domestic market declined 1.1% in September and 1.2% in the foreign
market. The decline in sales to the Euro Area countries (1.2%), was
greater than that to the non Euro Area countries (1.0%).The decline in
new orders suggests that further declines in sales are in the
pipelines. The third chart shows the indexes of domestic sales and the
Euro Area and non Euro Area sales.<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/071106i.jpg" a height="265" width="314"><img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/071106j.jpg" height="265" width="314">

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead><tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">GERMAN&nbsp;
MANUFACTURING NEW ORDERS AND SALES (2000=100)&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">Sep 07</th>
<th scope="col">Aug 07&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">Sep 06&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">M/M %Chg&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y %Chg&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">New Orders Total</td>
<td>133.6</td>
<td>137.2</td>
<td>126.9</td>
<td>-2.62</td>
<td>5.28</td>
<td>123.9111.</td>
<td>105.1</td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;Domestic&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</td>
<td>116.4</td>
<td>120.2</td>
<td>116.5</td>
<td>-3.16</td>
<td>-1.09</td>
<td>110.9</td>
<td>101.4</td>
<td>99.3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;Foreign</td>
<td>155.0</td>
<td>158.5</td>
<td>139.8</td>
<td>-2.21</td>
<td>10.87</td>
<td>140.1</td>
<td>124.7</td>
<td>113.6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol"> &nbsp;&nbsp;
Euro Area</td>
<td>149.4</td>
<td>148.3</td>
<td>131.8</td>
<td>0.74</td>
<td>13.35</td>
<td>132.1</td>
<td>120.4</td>
<td>109.6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp;
Non Euro Area</td>
<td>160.1</td>
<td>167.8</td>
<td>147.1</td>
<td>-4.59</td>
<td>8.84</td>
<td>147.4</td>
<td>128.6</td>
<td>117.1</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Sales Total</td>
<td>128.3</td>
<td>129.7</td>
<td>121.8</td>
<td>-1.08</td>
<td>5.34</td>
<td>119.6</td>
<td>110.6</td>
<td>105.5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;Domestic&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</td>
<td>115.1</td>
<td>116.5</td>
<td>110.5</td>
<td>-1.20</td>
<td>4.16</td>
<td>108.8</td>
<td>102.7</td>
<td>99.4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;Foreign</td>
<td>150.6</td>
<td>152.1</td>
<td>140.9</td>
<td>-0.99</td>
<td>6.88</td>
<td>137.8</td>
<td>123.9</td>
<td>115.9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol"> &nbsp;&nbsp;
Euro Area</td>
<td>143.8</td>
<td>146.1</td>
<td>132.5</td>
<td>-1.57</td>
<td>8.53</td>
<td>130.3</td>
<td>119.1</td>
<td>112.9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp;
Non Euro Area</td>
<td>156.3</td>
<td>156.9</td>
<td>148.0</td>
<td>-0.38</td>
<td>5.61</td>
<td>144.1</td>
<td>128.0</td>
<td>118.1</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body></html>

The index of German new orders for manufacturing goods fell 2.6% in September to 133.6 (2000=100) from August, but was still more than 5% above September, 2006. The index of manufacturing sales fell 1.1% in September from August but [...]

German Manufacturing New Orders and Sales Declined in September

Robert Brusca

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<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/071106f.jpg" align="left" border="0" height="265" width="353">
EMU-13 retail sales are up by a smaller than expected 0.3% in
September. The previous month was revised higher by 0.7% but we still
find EMU retail sales on a weak trend, with a hint of pick-up. French
sales have been weakening while in Germany sales have jumped into
positive territory after contracting in the earlier months. The UK, an
EU nation, shows the strongest sales and there sales are still
accelerating. We do not yet have detail for the current month but trend
calculations by item are in the shaded portion of the table using data
that lag by one month. They show some degree of pick up through August.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup></colgroup>
<thead><tr><th colspan="7" scope="col"> Euro area 13 Retail Sales Volume</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="even">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;</td>
<td>Sep-07</td>
<td>Aug-07</td>
<td>Jul-07</td>
<td>3-Mo</td>
<td>6-MO</td>
<td>12-Mo</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">EA-13 Total</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>3.0%</td>
<td>1.2%</td>
<td>1.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Food</td>
<td>#N/A</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>#N/A</td>
<td>#N/A</td>
<td>#N/A</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Nonfood</td>
<td>#N/A</td>
<td>-0.1%</td>
<td>0.5%</td>
<td>#N/A</td>
<td>#N/A</td>
<td>#N/A</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Textiles</td>
<td>#N/A</td>
<td>-0.4%</td>
<td>0.9%</td>
<td>14.2%</td>
<td>2.6%</td>
<td>0.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">HH Goods</td>
<td>#N/A</td>
<td>0.5%</td>
<td>0.5%</td>
<td>10.1%</td>
<td>4.2%</td>
<td>1.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Books news, etc</td>
<td>#N/A</td>
<td>-0.2%</td>
<td>0.5%</td>
<td>8.1%</td>
<td>3.4%</td>
<td>2.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Pharmaceutical</td>
<td>#N/A</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>2.4%</td>
<td>3.1%</td>
<td>2.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Other Nonspecified</td>
<td>#N/A</td>
<td>-0.6%</td>
<td>-0.1%</td>
<td>2.5%</td>
<td>-0.5%</td>
<td>-1.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Mail Order</td>
<td>#N/A</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>-0.6%</td>
<td>0.8%</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>-2.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td colspan="7" class="firstcol">Nonfood Country Detail:
Volume</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Germany</td>
<td>1.3%</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>-0.3%</td>
<td>5.8%</td>
<td>5.0%</td>
<td>2.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">France</td>
<td>0.6%</td>
<td>-0.4%</td>
<td>0.5%</td>
<td>5.7%</td>
<td>5.0%</td>
<td>4.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Italy (Total; Value)</td>
<td>#N/A</td>
<td>-0.1%</td>
<td>-0.1%</td>
<td>-1.0%</td>
<td>-1.8%</td>
<td>-1.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">UK (EU)</td>
<td>0.6%</td>
<td>0.7%</td>
<td>0.8%</td>
<td>8.4%</td>
<td>6.8%</td>
<td>8.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td colspan="7" class="firstcol">Shaded areas calculated on a
one-month lag due to lagging data</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td colspan="7" class="firstcol">The EA 13 countries are Austria,
Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg,
the Netherlands, Portugal, Slovenia and Spain.</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body></html>

EMU-13 retail sales are up by a smaller than expected 0.3% in September. The previous month was revised higher by 0.7% but we still find EMU retail sales on a weak trend, with a hint of pick-up. French sales have been weakening while [...]

EMU Retail Sales Remain Sluggish

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<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/071106g.jpg" align="left" border="0" height="265" width="353">
The ex-energy PPI is not showing the same acceleration as the
headline and is in fact decelerating across the main countries except
for the UK, an EU country. If we look at the sequential growth rates by
product in the table we find that most categories are showing price
deceleration as well. Capital goods are a minor exception. Consumer
goods show a more pronounced acceleration in inflation. Overall EMU
inflation is decelerating excluding energy to 2.7% over three months
from 3.1% over six months and 3% year-over-year.
At a 2.7% pace it still is well over the 2% inflation
ceiling for the HICP that has been set by the ECB. Among main PPI
components only intermediate goods inflation is below 2% over three
months. Germany posts 3-month PPI inflation that is below 2% for both
overall and ex-energy measures in September. 

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup></colgroup>
<thead><tr>
<th colspan="7" scope="col"> Euro
area and UK PPI Trends</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="even">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;</td>
<td colspan="2">M/M</td>
<td colspan="4">Saar</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Euro area 13</td>
<td>Sep-07</td>
<td>Aug-07</td>
<td>3-Mo</td>
<td>6-MO</td>
<td>Yr/Yr</td>
<td>Y/Y Yr Ago</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Total ex Construction</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
<td>2.9%</td>
<td style="color: red;">3.3%</td>
<td>2.7%</td>
<td>4.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Excl Energy</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>2.7%</td>
<td style="color: red;">3.1%</td>
<td>3.0%</td>
<td>3.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Capital Goods</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
<td style="color: red;">1.0%</td>
<td>0.9%</td>
<td>1.6%</td>
<td>1.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Consumer Goods</td>
<td>0.5%</td>
<td>0.5%</td>
<td style="color: red;">5.8%</td>
<td style="color: red;">4.2%</td>
<td style="color: red;">2.9%</td>
<td>1.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Intermediate &amp; Capital
Goods</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
<td>1.3%</td>
<td>2.6%</td>
<td>3.1%</td>
<td>4.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Energy</td>
<td>1.0%</td>
<td>-0.5%</td>
<td>3.5%</td>
<td style="color: red;">4.2%</td>
<td>1.6%</td>
<td>7.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">MFG</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
<td>3.3%</td>
<td style="color: red;">4.6%</td>
<td style="color: red;">3.4%</td>
<td>2.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Germany</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
<td>0.7%</td>
<td>1.5%</td>
<td>1.5%</td>
<td>5.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Ex Energy</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>1.5%</td>
<td>2.4%</td>
<td>2.5%</td>
<td>2.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Itlay</td>
<td>0.5%</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td style="color: red;">4.4%</td>
<td style="color: red;">4.2%</td>
<td>3.5%</td>
<td>5.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Ex Energy</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>2.1%</td>
<td>2.8%</td>
<td>3.1%</td>
<td>4.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">UK</td>
<td>0.5%</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
<td style="color: red;">4.5%</td>
<td>-0.6%</td>
<td>2.6%</td>
<td>6.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Ex Energy</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td style="color: red;">2.9%</td>
<td>2.1%</td>
<td>2.9%</td>
<td>3.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="grey1">
<td colspan="4" class="firstcol">Euro area 13
Harmonized PPI
excluding Construction</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
<tr class="grey1">
<td colspan="7" class="firstcol">The EA 13
countries are Austria,
Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg,
the Netherlands, Portugal, Slovenia and Spain.</td>
</tr>

</tbody>
</table>
</body></html>

The ex-energy PPI is not showing the same acceleration as the headline and is in fact decelerating across the main countries except for the UK, an EU country. If we look at the sequential growth rates by product in the table we find [...]

EMU PPI on an Accelerating Trend…

Tom Moeller

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/071106d.jpg" width="353">
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported in the Job Openings &amp; Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) that the September job openings rate was unchanged from the prior month at 2.9%. That level was, however, down from the highs of late last year. The job openings rate is the number of job openings on the last business day of the month as a percent of total employment plus job openings.
The actual number of job openings was down 0.5% m/m to 4.115 million (-0.7% y/y). While the y/y comparison shows a moderate 0.7% decline in the number of job openings, they are down nearly 6% from year end 2006. Professional &amp; business service sector openings fell 10.2%, retail trade fell 20.4% and while openings in the construction industry rose slightly it was after steep declines late last year.
The hires rate fell just slightly m/m to 3.4%. The hires rate is the number of hires during the month divided by employment.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/071106e.jpg" width="353">
The actual number of hires fell 3.3% (-4.9% y/y) to 4.677 million and hires are down 5.5% since the end of last year. Hires in the construction industry remained down 1.2% since yearend and factory sector hires were 8.3% lower.
The job separations rate in September was steady at 3.2%, but down from 3.3% a year earlier. Separations include quits, layoffs, discharges, and other separations as well as retirements. The level of job separations fell 4.1% since yearend 2006.
The JOLTS survey dates only to December 2000 but has since followed the movement in nonfarm payrolls, though the actual correlation between the two series is low.
A description of the Jolts survey and the latest release from the U.S. Department of Labor is available <a href="http://www.bls.gov/news.release/jolts.nr0.htm">here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@EB/@EB14/@EB14.HTM">JOLTS</a> (Job Openings &amp; Labor &nbsp;Turnover Survey)</th>
<th scope="col">September</th>
<th scope="col">August</th>
<th scope="col">Sept &#39;06</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Job Openings Rate: Total</td>
<td>2.9%</td>
<td>2.9%</td>
<td>3.0%</td>
<td>3.1%</td>
<td>2.8%</td>
<td>2.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Hires Rate: Total</td>
<td>3.4%</td>
<td>3.5%</td>
<td>3.6%</td>
<td>43.6%</td>
<td>43.1%</td>
<td>41.7%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported in the Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) that the September job openings rate was unchanged from the prior month at 2.9%. That level was, however, down from the highs of late last [...]

JOLTS: Job Openings Unchanged, Hires Rate Depressed

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/071106b.jpg" width="353">
On average, retail gasoline prices topped $3.00 per gallon last week, according to the US Department of Energy survey. The level was not a record as it was still below the highs reached in early June. It did, however, represent a 7.5% increase from the average level in October and a roughly one third increase from prices a year earlier. <img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/071106c.jpg" width="353">
Divided by consumer prices other than energy, these gasoline prices are just 6% below the high reached in 1981.
Higher crude oil prices have driven the price increase. On Friday, spot WTI crude stood at $90.39 per barrel, up by half the price during late 2006.
In another inflation signal, gold prices rose to near $800 per ounce, the level surpassed the previous record price reached in early 1980.
Energy Prices and the Economy, a 2004 article from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas is available <a href="http://www.dallasfed.org/research/indepth/2004/id0402.pdf">here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/WEEKLY/@W4/@W4.HTM">Weekly Prices</a></th>
<th scope="col">11/05/07</th>
<th scope="col">10/31/07</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Retail Gasoline ($ per Gallon)</td>
<td>3.01</td>
<td>2.87</td>
<td>37.0%</td>
<td>2.57</td>
<td>2.27</td>
<td>1.85</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Light Sweet Crude Oil, WTI&nbsp; ($ per bbl.)</td>
<td>90.39</td>
<td>86.48</td>
<td>53.9%</td>
<td>61.11</td>
<td>58.16</td>
<td>41.78</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Gold: Handy &amp; Harmon ($ per Troy Oz.)</td>
<td>$783.25</td>
<td>$758.25</td>
<td>29.7%</td>
<td>628.70</td>
<td>$507.40</td>
<td>$443.40</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
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On average, retail gasoline prices topped $3.00 per gallon last week, according to the US Department of Energy survey. The level was not a record as it was still below the highs reached in early June. It did, however, represent a 7.5% [...]

Gasoline Above $3.00 per Gallon, Again

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/071106a.jpg" width="353">
Chain store sales during the opening week of November jumped 1.0% from the week prior according to the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS. The gain followed a 0.1% up tick during the prior week.
As a result of rise, early November sales began the month 0.5% ahead of the October average which fell 0.8% from September.
During the last ten years there has been a 45% correlation between the y/y change in chain store sales and the change in nonauto retail sales less gasoline.
The ICSC-UBS retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales (stores open for one year) reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.
The leading indicator of chain store sales from ICSC-UBS rose 0.8% (0.5% y/y) after declines during the two prior weeks.
The October 2007 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices from the Federal Reserve Board is available <a href="http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/SnLoanSurvey/200711/default.htm"> here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/surveyw/@S2/@S2.HTM">ICSC-UBS (SA, 1977=100)</a></th>
<th scope="col">11/03/07</th>
<th scope="col">10/27/07</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Total Weekly Chain Store Sales</td>
<td>477.8</td>
<td>473.3</td>
<td>2.4%</td>
<td>3.3%</td>
<td>3.6%</td>
<td>4.7%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>


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Chain store sales during the opening week of November jumped 1.0% from the week prior according to the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS. The gain followed a 0.1% up tick during the prior week. As a result of rise, [...]

U.S. Chain Store Sales Recovered

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<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/071105c.jpg" height="265" width="312"><img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/071105d.jpg" height="265" width="312">

Industrial production in the United Kingdom declined 0.50% in
September to 99.1 (2003=100) from 99.6 in August and was 0.30% below
September, 2006. Energy, which has been in a down trend for the past
three years was the only major sector to increase. The production of
consumer non durable and durable goods, capital goods and intermediate
goods were all down, as can be seen in the first chart.
The Purchasing Managers Index of manufacturing activity for
October, published last week suggests continued weakness in the
manufacturing sector. The index, while still in the expansion phase
(above 50), declined 3.25% from September to 52.4% in October.
Much more important, the October Purchasing Managers Index for
services was released today. Services account for almost 75% of the
Gross Domestic Product, while manufacturing accounts for about 15%. The
service index showed a decline, almost twice as large as that of the
manufacturing sector--6.37%--to 53.08%. The two PMI's are shown in the
second chart.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead><tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">&nbsp;INDUSTRIAL
PRODUCTION 2003=100&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">Sep 07</th>
<th scope="col">Aug 07&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">Sep 06&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">M/M Chg&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y Chg&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Industrial Production</td>
<td>99.1</td>
<td>99.6</td>
<td>99.4</td>
<td>-0.50</td>
<td>-0.30</td>
<td>98.8</td>
<td>98.8</td>
<td>100.8</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Consumer
Durables</td>
<td>106.0</td>
<td>107.6</td>
<td>103.7</td>
<td>-1.49</td>
<td>2.22</td>
<td>104.3</td>
<td>102.9</td>
<td>104.1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Consumer
Nondurables</td>
<td>98.5</td>
<td>98.8</td>
<td>99.8</td>
<td>-0.30</td>
<td>-1.30</td>
<td>99.2</td>
<td>99.2</td>
<td>100.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Capital
Goods </td>
<td>108.9</td>
<td>109.4</td>
<td>108.7</td>
<td>-0.46</td>
<td>0.18</td>
<td>107.1</td>
<td>103.2</td>
<td>103.6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">
Intermediate Goods</td>
<td>102.2</td>
<td>103.3</td>
<td>101.6</td>
<td>-1.06</td>
<td>0.59</td>
<td>101.2</td>
<td>100.1</td>
<td>102.3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Energy</td>
<td>85.2</td>
<td>84.6</td>
<td>85.9</td>
<td>0.71</td>
<td>-0.81</td>
<td>86.2</td>
<td>91.5</td>
<td>96.4</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body></html>

Industrial production in the United Kingdom declined 0.50% in September to 99.1 (2003=100) from 99.6 in August and was 0.30% below September, 2006. Energy, which has been in a down trend for the past three years was the only major [...]

Signs of Cooling in the British Economy

Reaccelerating goods price inflation along with sticky services inflation clouds the outlook

Falling oil prices aren't pulling down inflation expectations, pointing to a boost from increased tariffs

Equity market exuberance outpacing macroeconomic data

Apart from Japan, Blue Chip forecasters expect further sizable monetary easing

US production rebounded in Q2, but demand continued to slow

US leader, Germany trailer for real GDP growth over past 3 years

Negative US inflation surprises leading G10 down

Deflation continues in China

Incoming data surprising on downside in US; positive surprises elsewhere

FOMC expects more inflation and less growth than in March

With escalation of Israel/Iran conflict, geopolitical risk has recently surged while US trade policy uncertainty has ebbed

Renewed supply chain pressures point to a rebound in global inflation ahead

Apart from Japan, Blue Chip forecasters look for further significant monetary policy easing

Apart from the US, productivity is moribund

Financial market concerns ebb even though policy uncertainty continues to soar

US tariff revenues nearly doubled in April

Even with expected tariff-induced increases in inflation, BCFF forecasters look for a more aggressive round of monetary easing

USD/EUR exchange rate uncoupling from interest rate differential

Widespread downgrading of 2025 GDP outlook

Trade and fiscal policy uncertainty has exploded with the new administration

Much lower US electricity costs gives it a competitive advantage

Wage growth slowing in the US and Euro area; elevated and sticky in the UK

Stagflation-lite: Blue Chip forecasts below-trend growth and elevated inflation

US policy gyrations boosting policy uncertainty worldwide

Expected tariff hikes have boosted inflation expectations

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The **PCE chain price index** increased 0.2% (2.6% y/y) after rising an unrevised 0.3% in June and an unrevised 0.2% in May. The y/y gain steadied at 2.6%. It was increased from 2.2% y/y in April. Energy prices fell 1.1% (-2.7% y/y) after rising 0.9%, while food & beverage prices eased 0.1% (+1.9% y/y) following a 0.3% rise. The price index excluding food & energy rose a steady 0.3%, after two straight 0.2% increases. The y/y gain edged up to 2.9% last month from 2.8% in June. It was increased from a low of 2.6% in April.

Durable goods prices eased 0.1% (+1.1% y/y) in July, after rising 0.5% in June. Home furnishings & appliance prices edged 0.1% higher (2.5% y/y), after increasing 1.3%. Recreational goods & vehicle costs declined 0.9% (-0.3% y/y) and reversed the 0.9% June strengthening. Motor vehicle & parts prices rose 0.2% (1.6% y/y), after a 0.4% June decline.

Prices of nondurable goods eased 0.1% (+0.2% y/y) last month after rising 0.4% in June. Clothing prices held steady both m/m and y/y after rising 0.3% in June. Food & beverage prices eased 0.1% (+1.9% y/y), following a 0.4% June increase. Gasoline & other energy prices fell 1.7% (-9.6% y/y), after rising 0.9% in June.

Services prices in July rose 0.3% (3.6% y/y), after four straight 0.2% increases. Housing & utility prices rose 0.2% (4.3% y/y), after two consecutive 0.3% increases, and services prices excluding energy & healthcare gained 0.4% (3.7% y/y) after two 0.2% gains. Healthcare prices rose 0.2% (2.7% y/y), after rising 0.4%. The cost of financial services & insurance jumped 1.2% (5.5% y/y) after rising 0.4% in June. Recreation services costs rose 0.3% (3.2% y/y) after rising 0.1%. Transportation prices gained 0.2% (4.4% y/y), following a 0.1% rise, while hotel & restaurant prices improved 0.1% (2.8% y/y) after a slight June decline.

**Personal consumption expenditures (PCE)** rose 0.5% (4.7% y/y) last month after increasing 0.4% in June, revised from 0.3%, after holding steady in May. The July rise matched expectations in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. When adjusted for price changes, PCE improved 0.3% in July (2.1% y/y) after rising 0.1% in June.

Real spending on durable goods increased 2.0% (3.2% y/y) in July, after falling for three straight months. Real spending on motor vehicles jumped 4.5% (3.5% y/y), after falling sharply in both June and May. Real outlays on furnishings & appliances improved 0.2% (0.9% y/y), after falling in each of the prior month. Real spending on recreational goods & vehicles increased 1.5% (4.9% y/y) last month, after falling 0.4% in June. Spending on “other” durable goods improved 0.4% (2.6% y/y) after rising 0.2% in June.

Nondurable goods spending in real terms rose 0.3% (2.7% y/y) in July after gaining 0.6% in June. Real clothing & footwear purchases rose 0.6% (4.9% y/y) last month, following a 0.5% rise during June. Real food & beverage purchases strengthened 0.7% (1.7% y/y) after rising 0.4%. Real outlays on gasoline & other energy products fell 1.3% (-1.5% y/y), after rising 1.5%. Real spending on “other” nondurable goods edged 0.1% higher (4.1% y/y) last month, following a 0.6% rise in June.

Real spending on services improved 0.1% (1.7% y/y) in July for the second straight month. Real spending on housing & utilities rose 0.1% (1.1% y/y) in July, for a second consecutive month, while real health care spending also rose 0.1% (3.9% y/y) after rising 0.2%. Real spending on food services & accommodations eased 0.2% (+1.7% y/y), after rising 0.4% in June. Real spending on financial services & insurance rose 0.2% (2.4% y/y) after increasing 0.4% in June. Real spending on transportation services rose 0.3% (-0.0% y/y) in July, after falling 0.6% in June. Recreation spending slipped 0.1% (+1.0% y/y), the same as in June. Spending on “other” services rose 0.3% (2.7% y/y) for the second straight month.

250829F1.jpg

250829G1.jpg

**Personal income** rose 0.4% last month (5.0% y/y) after increasing 0.3% in June. A 0.5% gain was expected. Wages & salaries moved 0.6% higher (5.3% y/y), following a 0.1% increase during June. Rental income increased 0.5% (4.0% y/y) in July, after falling for three straight months. Proprietors’ income improved 0.7% (2.3% y/y), after a minimal 0.1% increase. Income from assets rose 0.1% (1.4% y/y), after holding steady in June, and current transfer receipts were unchanged (8.3% y/y) following a 1.1% June increase.

Disposable personal income increased 0.4% (4.6% y/y) during July following a 0.3% June rise. After adjusting for price changes, disposable income improved 0.2% (2.0% y/y) after holding steady in June.

The personal saving rate held steady in July at 4.4%, after falling from 5.0% in April. It still stands well above low of 3.5% in December of last year. Personal saving fell 1.7% (+5.8% y/y) in July, after declining 0.9% in June.

The personal income and consumption figures are available in Haver’s **USECON** database with detail in the **USNA** database. The Action Economics forecasts are in **AS1REPNA**.

**Let’s Get On with It** from Fed Governor Christopher J. Waller is available [here](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/waller20250828a.htm).

250829C1.jpg

250829D1.jpg

- Core price increase y/y matches highest since February.
- Real spending moderation centers on services.
- Real disposable income improves; personal savings rate steadies.

U.S. Core PCE Price Inflation Up in July; Real Spending Slows Y/Y 

Winnie Tapasanun

250829H.jpg

250829I.jpg

The advance estimate of the U.S. international trade deficit in goods widened to a larger-than-expected $103.57 billion in July after narrowing to $84.85 billion in June, data from the U.S. Census Bureau showed. The July reading, the second widening in the goods trade deficit in three months, was slightly smaller than a $103.92 billion shortfall in July 2024. A deficit of $90.2 billion for July had been expected by the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The deficit reached a record $161.95 billion in March. In Q2'25, the goods trade deficit narrowed to $266.96 billion, the smallest since Q4'23, after ballooning to a record $465.035 billion in Q1'25; the monthly deficit averaged $88.99 billion in Q2'25, down from a record $155.01 billion in Q1'25.

Total goods exports dipped 0.1% m/m (+3.0% y/y), the third consecutive monthly decline, to $177.97 billion in July, the lowest level since January, after a 0.7% decrease to $178.08 billion in June. April registered a record high of $190.08 billion. Exports were up 9.6% from a June 2023 low but down 2.1% from a July 2022 high. The m/m decline in exports in July reflected exports m/m drops of 2.4% (+16.3% y/y) in other goods, 0.9% (+5.1% y/y) in nonfood consumer goods excluding autos, and 0.8% (-1.2% y/y) in industrial supplies & materials. To the upside, exports for the following end-use categories rose m/m in July: automotive vehicles & parts (2.2%; -4.0% y/y), capital goods excluding autos (0.7%; 7.0% y/y), and foods, feeds & beverages (0.5%; 1.4% y/y).

Total goods imports rebounded 7.1% m/m (1.7% y/y), the first monthly increase since March, to a four-month-high $281.54 billion in July following a 4.6% drop to $262.94 billion in June. March registered a record high of $344.59 billion. Imports were up 11.9% from a June 2023 low but down 2.6% from a March 2022 high. The m/m rebound in imports in July reflected m/m rises in most imports end-use categories. These included a 25.4% surge (the first m/m increase and the largest since January; 4.9% y/y) in industrial supplies & materials as well as rises of 11.5% (23.5% y/y) in other goods, 4.8% (14.7% y/y) in capital goods excluding autos, 2.4% (4.9% y/y) in foods, feeds & beverages, and 2.1% (-12.2% y/y) in nonfood consumer goods excluding autos. In contrast, imports of automotive vehicles & parts, the only end-use category with a monthly decline in July, fell 3.2% (-14.1% y/y), the third m/m fall in four months, on top of a 3.6% June decrease.

The advance international trade data can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. The expectation figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, which is in **AS1REPNA**.

- Deficit: $103.57 bil. in July, jumping 22.1% from June’s $84.85 bil.
- Exports -0.1%, down for the third straight month, led by a 2.4% decline in exports of other goods.
- Imports +7.1%, up for the first time since March, led by a 25.4% surge in imports of industrial supplies & materials.

U.S. Goods Trade Deficit Balloons in July; Largest Since March’s Record High

250829E.jpg

Inflation in the monetary union was tepid across the large, early-reporting, economies in August. The HICP rose by 0.2% on the month in Germany, rose by 0.1% in France, while it was flat in both Italy and Spain. However, these outstanding readings followed several months of stronger inflation; in particular in July German prices rose by 0.2%, in Italy the gauge rose by 0.3%, in France by 0.4%, and in Spain by 0.5%.

As a result, over three months, inflation is running hot on the headline gauge, over 2% in France, Italy, and Spain, and just below it, at a 1.8% annual rate in Germany. Over 12 months, inflation is well behaved, but that headline is up 0.8% in France, rises by 1.7% over 12 months in Italy, by 2.1% in Germany, and at a 2.6% pace in Spain. That is a bit more mixed but still quite solid set of results. The EMU-wide HICP for July – on a one-month lag- rises by 2.1% over 12 months with a core at 2.3%.

Core inflation is not well reported on an early basis. The Italian core rate rose 0.2% in August with Spain at 0.3%; both Italy and Spain logged increases of 0.3% in July and in June and as a result the 3-month inflation rate on the core for Italy and Spain runs at 2.7% in Italy and at 3.8% for Spain. These, of course, are much higher and more disturbing numbers for inflation. The 6-month inflation rate for core Italy and Spain runs at 2.9% and 3.1%, respectively, while over 12 months the Italian core is up by only 2.1% and the Spanish core is up by only 2.4%. The kick up and inflation for the core is a relatively recent phenomenon.

250829.jpg

These statistics give the ECB some room and some time to maneuver, since headline inflation is in pretty good shape and the inflation issues are scattered and have emerged more recently from the core and with growth still weak and with rising unemployment in Germany where it just topped 3 million for the first time in a decade. There may not be any impetus to have to raise rates to cool inflation. The European Central Bank, like the Federal Reserve, is likely playing a watch and wait game with the economic statistics, and this month the watch and wait game turned pretty much in its favor with very good headline figures although still having some difficult core figures. It will take a little time before we get the core numbers for the rest of the monetary union members to fill in to understand exactly where those trends sit.

However, based on the early returns, the ECB is probably relatively happy with how inflation is sitting even with the core rates slightly excessive and varied. There doesn't appear to be any burgeoning inflation problem; there's some kind of a modest core inflation issue building in Italy and Spain and we'll have to watch that in the coming months. For now, the ECB should be relatively content.

Europe

EMU Large Country Inflation Runs Cold – Over Tepid Cores

Andrew Cates

**The US labour market**
The latest data highlight a growing sense of fragility in the US labour market. The unemployment rate, while still relatively low by historical standards, has been edging higher through the course of this year. More telling, however, is the signal from this week’s consumer confidence survey from Conference Board and specifically the labour market differential — the gap between the share of consumers saying jobs are plentiful versus those saying jobs are hard to get. That balance has narrowed sharply, moving back toward levels historically associated with softer labour demand and rising unemployment.

250828Z1.jpg

**Goods and services inflation** 
Haver’s breakdown of goods and services CPI inflation in the advanced economies highlights where fresh risks are emerging. Goods inflation, which had been receding sharply after the pandemic supply shocks, has recently shown signs of firming again. Some of this probably reflects the impact of US tariff policies, which are raising import costs and putting renewed upward pressure on traded goods prices. While services inflation remains the more stubborn component in most advanced economies, the risk is that tariffs could reintroduce stickiness into goods prices, slowing the overall disinflation process.

250828Z2.jpg

**China, Europe and US trade policy**
A consequence of US tariff policies has been a sharp contraction in Chinese exports to the US market, with much of the surplus redirected elsewhere. Europe in particular has recorded near double-digit import growth in recent months, raising concerns that Beijing is deflecting its industrial overcapacity problem rather than resolving it, effectively transferring the pressure onto trading partners. China’s authorities, however, have begun to push back, introducing measures to curb excess supply and rein in so-called “involution,” including clampdowns on price wars across several industries.

250828Z3.jpg

**China’s excess capacity and Europe**
A closer look at Europe–China trade shows that electric vehicles remain a key flashpoint. Import volumes from China have continued to rise even as per-unit prices fall sharply from a year ago —evidence suggesting that industrial overcapacity persists, with low-cost Chinese EVs increasingly challenging European automakers. The surge has carried on despite EU tariffs of up to 45% on battery EVs, as Chinese producers have adapted by pushing plug-in hybrids and expanding onshore production in Europe to bypass duties and defend market share.

250828Z4.jpg

**Wage growth in the US and Europe** 
Turning back to inflation dynamics, the UK stands out for its persistent wage pressures. While posted wage growth has cooled across the US and euro area, the UK measure has remained elevated at around 6% year-on-year, well above pre-pandemic norms. This stickiness reflects a still-tight labour market in key service sectors, even as broader activity has slowed and unemployment has edged higher. For the Bank of England, it underscores the dilemma: headline inflation is easing, but underlying pay growth risks keeping services inflation uncomfortably high, complicating the timing and scale of policy easing.

250828Z5.jpg

**The UK economy**
The UK’s net international investment position has deteriorated noticeably in recent years, with both direct investment and portfolio flows showing persistent weakness. The latest data underline how net FDI has turned increasingly negative, while the portfolio investment balance has also eroded, leaving the UK more reliant on volatile short-term funding sources. This deterioration comes against a backdrop of heightened investor unease about the riskiness of UK debt markets, where elevated gilt yields and rising debt-servicing costs have amplified concerns over fiscal sustainability. Taken together, these trends underscore the vulnerability of the UK’s external position at a time when global capital is arguably proving more selective and risk sensitive.

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Global markets have continued to rally into late summer, buoyed by AI optimism, dovish signals from central bankers at Jackson Hole, and expectations of easier policy ahead. Yet beneath the surface, risks to the world economy are accumulating. In the US, labour market indicators point to softening conditions (chart 1), while tariff-driven pressures are beginning to push goods prices higher (chart 2). Global trade flows are being reshaped by US policy, with China’s excess capacity increasingly diverted toward Europe, most visibly through surging exports of electric vehicles (EVs) (charts 3 and 4). At the same time, wage growth remains stubbornly elevated in the UK, complicating disinflation (chart 5), while concerns are mounting over the country’s external vulnerabilities as net FDI and portfolio positions weaken against the backdrop of jittery debt markets (chart 6). Together, these dynamics highlight the tension between buoyant market performance and a global economy still grappling with structural fragilities.

Charts of the Week: Riskbusters

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Real GDP grew 3.3% (SAAR) during the second quarter of 2025, revised from a 3.0% gain reported initially. The increase followed an unrevised 0.5% decline in Q1. A 3.1% rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Growth during the last four quarters of 2.1% compared to 2.0% y/y in Q1, and remained below its most recent high of 3.2% in Q4 2023.

After-tax corporate profits without IVA & CCA adjustment increased 1.4% (7.0% y/y) last quarter after easing 0.8% in Q1. Before-tax earnings with IVA & CCA rose 1.7% (4.3% y/y) after falling 2.3% in Q1. Financial sector earnings rose 1.4% (15.3% y/y) after rising 2.3% in Q1. Nonfinancial corporate profits rose 2.2% (2.5% y/y) after falling 2.5% in Q1. Earnings from abroad eased 0.7% (-0.4% y/y) following a 7.3% Q1 decline.

Foreign trade balance improvement added 4.95 percentage points to growth last quarter after subtracting 4.61 percentage points in Q1. Imports fell 29.8% (+1.3% y/y) after surging 38.0% in Q1. Exports declined 1.3% (+2.0% y/y) after improving 0.4% in Q1. Inventories subtracted 3.29 percentage points from growth after adding 2.59 percentage point to Q1 growth.

Real final sales to domestic purchasers grew 1.6% (2.4% y/y), revised from 1.1%, in Q2 after rising 1.5% in Q1. Personal consumption expenditures rose 1.6% (2.4% y/y), revised from 1.4%, following a 0.5% gain. Durable goods spending rose 2.6% (4.6% y/y) after falling 3.7% in Q1. Motor vehicle purchases strengthened 11.7% (6.7% y/y) after declining 11.2% in Q1. Spending on home furnishings & appliances weakened 2.1% (+3.5% y/y) following a 1.5% rise. Recreational goods & vehicle outlays fell 3.5% (+4.3% y/y) last quarter after a 0.4% Q1 gain.

Nondurable goods outlays in constant dollars rose 2.3% (3.0% y/y) following 2.1% growth in Q1. Apparel spending increased 5.4% (4.8% y/y) following a 7.0% rise. Food & beverage buying gained 0.3% (1.5% y/y) after a 1.0% increase. Gasoline & fuel oil purchases weakened 1.4% (+0.9% y/y) after gaining 3.6% in Q1.

Real spending on services increased 1.2% (1.9% y/y) after a 0.6% gain. Outlays on housing & utilities eased 0.4% (+1.1% y/y) after rising 2.9% in Q1. Health care expenditures rose 4.2% (4.8% y/y) after a 3.1% increase. Transportation outlays declined 2.9% (-0.6% y/y) after a 1.4% rise, while recreation spending rose 3.6% (0.7% y/y) following a 5.1% decline. Restaurant & hotel expenditures increased 5.1% (1.9% y/y) after falling 1.8%. Financial services expenditures rose 1.9% (2.3% y/y) following a 0.1% Q1 increase.

Business fixed investment in constant dollars increased 5.7% last quarter (4.2% y/y), revised from 1.9%, following a 10.3% surge in Q1. Expenditures on structures declined 8.9% (-3.4% y/y), after falling 2.4% in Q1. Expenditures on producers’ durable equipment increased 7.4% (7.7% y/y), revised from 4.8%, after surging 23.7% in Q1. Outlays on information processing equipment rose 10.1% (20.1% y/y), revised from 5.5%, after soaring 72.8% during Q1. Industrial equipment investment rose 6.7% (4.0% y/y) after a 4.7% rise. Transportation equipment investment surged 20.4% (6.8% y/y) after a 6.9% gain. Intellectual property product spending rose 12.8% last quarter (5.2% y/y) following a 6.0% rise.

Residential structures investment in real terms declined a little-revised 4.7% (-1.3% y/y), the fourth decline in the last five quarters.

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Government spending eased 0.2%, revised from up 0.5% in Q2 (+1.8% y/y) after a 0.6% decline. Federal government expenditures declined 4.7% (+0.7% y/y) after falling 4.6% in Q1. National defense expenditures increased 1.4% (3.0% y/y) after declining 7.1% in Q1. State & local government spending rose 2.6% (2.5% y/y) following a 2.0% rise.

The GDP chain price index rose an unrevised and expected 2.0% last quarter (2.5% y/y) after increasing 3.8% in Q1. The PCE chain price index increased 2.0% (2.4% y/y) following a 3.7% rise. The PCE price index excluding food and energy rose 2.5% (2.7% y/y) after increasing 3.5% in Q1. The business fixed investment price index edged 0.5% lower (+1.1% y/y) after a 0.4% rise. The residential price index rose 1.1% (2.6% y/y) after a 4.1% rise while the government price index increased 3.3% (3.1% y/y) following a 4.6% rise.

The GDP data can be found in Haver’s **USECON** and **USNA** databases. **USNA** contains virtually all of the Bureau of Economic Analysis detail in the national accounts. The Action Economics consensus estimates can be found in **AS1REPNA**.

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- Business investment strengthens & consumer spending firms.
- U.S. business earnings reverse Q1 decline.
- Increase in price index is unrevised, remaining roughly half of Q1’s gain.

Economy in Brief: 2007

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