Tom Moeller

<html>
<head>
<style>
.odd{
 background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
 background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
	background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
	background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
	background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
	background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
	background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style>
</head>
<body>
 



<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060621g.jpg" width="353">
Gold prices at $567.00 per ounce yesterday were more than 20% lower than their high during May. (Since 1980 there has been a 56% correlation between the level of gold prices and the y/y change in consumer prices.)
In addition, the price of WTI crude oil at $68.94 per barrel is off 8% from the May high. These declines, however, seem more attributable to an easing of political tensions (Iran) than to some bona fide drop in inflation pressure. Measured price inflation is up, industrial commodity price inflation is up, inflation expectations are higher as well.
Consumer prices YTD have risen at a 5.2% annual rate in 2006 versus last year&#39;s 3.4% gain. The 3.1% rate of advance in &quot;core&quot; consumer price inflation is up from 3.3% growth last year, the 3.8% gain in core services prices is up one percentage point from last year and even the soft 1.2% rise in core goods prices is up from 0.5%.
The JoC-ECRI Industrial Metals Prices Index is up 25.2% this year due to higher prices for aluminum (up 35.4%), copper scrap (up 65.5%) and stainless steel scrap (up 17.6%). High grade copper prices have eased quite a bit from the earlier high but remain up 44.1% since year end &#39;05.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060621f.jpg" width="353">
Growth in industrial production is behind these gains. U.S. output gains have wobbled in recent months but factory production is up at a 3.9% annual rate this year, the same rate growth as during all of 2005. Output in the OECD Major Seven countries also is firm at 3.2% y/y through March. That&#39;s comparable to growth during the prior three years but quite the improvement from a range of 0.8% to -3.0% during 2001-2003. During the last ten years there has been a 49% correlation between the level of industrial metals&#39; prices and the y/y change in OECD Big Seven industrial production.
Inflation expectations as measured in the University of Michigan survey slipped from the highs in the June survey but the trend is clearly up. And in the market for Treasury securities, the so called TIPPS spread is down as well, but the trend remains elevated.
The Fed&#39;s Inflation Objective from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis can be found <a href="http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/mt/20060701/cover.pdf"> here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/WEEKLY/@W4/@W4.HTM">Weekly Prices</a></th>
<th scope="col">06/20/06</th>
<th scope="col">12/27/05</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Light Sweet Crude Oil, WTI&nbsp; (per bbl.)</td>
<td>$68.94</td>
<td>$58.16</td>
<td>21.1%</td>
<td>$58.16</td>
<td>$41.78</td>
<td>$32.78</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">U.S. Retail Gasoline (per gallon)</td>
<td>$2.87</td>
<td>$2.20</td>
<td>32.9%</td>
<td>$2.27</td>
<td>$1.85</td>
<td>$1.56</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Gold: Handy &amp; Harmon (per Troy Oz., EOP)</td>
<td>$567.00</td>
<td>$507.40</td>
<td>30.3%</td>
<td>$507.40</td>
<td>$443.40</td>
<td>$416.25</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">High Grade Copper (Comex, /Lb., EOP)</td>
<td>$3.29</td>
<td>$2.28</td>
<td>94.9%</td>
<td>$2.28</td>
<td>$1.54</td>
<td>$1.04</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Stainless Steel Scrap (/ton, EOP)</td>
<td>$2,158</td>
<td>$1,268</td>
<td>30.2%</td>
<td>$1,268</td>
<td>$1,558</td>
<td>$1,265</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

Gold prices at $567.00 per ounce yesterday were more than 20% lower than their high during May. (Since 1980 there has been a 56% correlation between the level of gold prices and the y/y change in consumer prices.) In addition, the [...]

Gold Prices Crater, Oil Off a Bit But Inflation Pressure Up

<html>
<head>
<style>
.odd{
 background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
 background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
	background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
	background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
	background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
	background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
	background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style>
</head>
<body>
 



<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060621a.jpg" width="353">
The total number of mortgage applications dipped 0.8% last week after the 7.0% recovery the prior week. Through early June, applications were just 0.6% below the May average but were 27.9% below the year ago level.
Applications to refinance fell 2.2% last week following the 10.6% surge during the week prior. Refis in June were 1.7% below the May average and 43.1% below the year earlier level.
Purchase applications were unchanged from the prior week of the heels of a 4.8% jump. As a result purchase applications in early June were about even with the May average, but were 13.5% below the year ago level.
During the last ten years there has been a negative 80% correlation between 30-year mortgage interest rates and purchase applications while during those years there has been a 54% correlation between the y/y change in purchase applications and the change in new plus existing single family home sales.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060621b.jpg" width="353">
The effective interest rate on a conventional 30-year mortgage increased thirteen basis points to 6.96%. The rate on 15-year financing also rose ten basis points to 6.65%, its highest since April 2002. Interest rates on 15 and 30 year mortgages are closely correlated (&gt;90%) with the rate on 10 year Treasury securities and during the last ten years there has been a (negative) 82% correlation between purchase applications and the effective rate on a 30-Year mortgage.
The Mortgage Bankers Association surveys between 20 to 35 of the top lenders in the U.S. housing industry to derive its refinance, purchase and market indexes. The weekly survey accounts for more than 40% of all applications processed each week by mortgage lenders. Visit the Mortgage Bankers Association site <a href="http://www.mbaa.org">here</a>.
During 2006 sales of new single family homes have fallen 11.5% from the average level during 2005, a decline very much heralded by what has been an 11.7% drop in purchase applications this year versus last year&#39;s average. But construction starts so far in 2006 are down only 2.5% from the 2005 average.
The mismatch between the decline in sales and the decline in starts has resulted in a 15% rise in the number of new single family houses for sale YTD vs. the 2005 average. Measuring the increase in unsold new homes y/y results in a 27.0% increase. Increases by region y/y break down as follows: Northeast, +63.6%; South, +36.5%; West, +26.7%; Midwest, -3.6%. These figures are available in Haver&#39;s USECON database.
The inventory of unsold existing single family homes has risen a slightly faster 33.2% y/y. Year to date that inventory is up 11.2% and the months&#39; supply on the market is 5.9 times the current sales rate, versus 3.7 times in early 2005.
Adjusting to the Next Stage of the Housing Cycle is a recent speech by Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Jack Guynn and it can be found <a href="http://www.frbatlanta.org/invoke.cfm?objectid=AF005747-5056-9F1A-E28D889DADF9B34D&amp;method=display"> here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/SURVEYW/@S5/@S5.HTM">MBA Mortgage Applications (3/16/90=100)</a></th>
<th scope="col">06/16/06</th>
<th scope="col">06/09/06</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Total Market Index</td>
<td>567.6</td>
<td>571.9</td>
<td>-27.9%</td>
<td>708.6</td>
<td>735.1</td>
<td>1,067.9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Purchase</td>
<td>414.8</td>
<td>414.6</td>
<td>-13.5%</td>
<td>470.9</td>
<td>454.5</td>
<td>395.1</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Refinancing</td>
<td>1,466.1</td>
<td>1,499.4</td>
<td>-43.1%</td>
<td>2,092.3</td>
<td>2,366.8</td>
<td>4,981.8</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

The total number of mortgage applications dipped 0.8% last week after the 7.0% recovery the prior week. Through early June, applications were just 0.6% below the May average but were 27.9% below the year ago level. Applications to [...]

Mortgage Applications Dip, # of Unsold Homes Soar

<html>
<head>
<style>
.odd{
 background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
 background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
	background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
	background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
	background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
	background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
	background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style>
</head>
<body>
 



<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060621a.jpg" width="353">
The total number of mortgage applications dipped 0.8% last week after the 7.0% recovery the prior week. Through early June, applications were just 0.6% below the May average but were 27.9% below the year ago level.
Applications to refinance fell 2.2% last week following the 10.6% surge during the week prior. Refis in June were 1.7% below the May average and 43.1% below the year earlier level.
Purchase applications were unchanged from the prior week of the heels of a 4.8% jump. As a result purchase applications in early June were about even with the May average, but were 13.5% below the year ago level.
During the last ten years there has been a negative 80% correlation between 30-year mortgage interest rates and purchase applications while during those years there has been a 54% correlation between the y/y change in purchase applications and the change in new plus existing single family home sales.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060621b.jpg" width="353">
The effective interest rate on a conventional 30-year mortgage increased thirteen basis points to 6.96%. The rate on 15-year financing also rose ten basis points to 6.65%, its highest since April 2002. Interest rates on 15 and 30 year mortgages are closely correlated (&gt;90%) with the rate on 10 year Treasury securities and during the last ten years there has been a (negative) 82% correlation between purchase applications and the effective rate on a 30-Year mortgage.
The Mortgage Bankers Association surveys between 20 to 35 of the top lenders in the U.S. housing industry to derive its refinance, purchase and market indexes. The weekly survey accounts for more than 40% of all applications processed each week by mortgage lenders. Visit the Mortgage Bankers Association site <a href="http://www.mbaa.org">here</a>.
During 2006 sales of new single family homes have fallen 11.5% from the average level during 2005, a decline very much heralded by what has been an 11.7% drop in purchase applications this year versus last year&#39;s average. But construction starts so far in 2006 are down only 2.5% from the 2005 average.
The mismatch between the decline in sales and the decline in starts has resulted in a 15% rise in the number of new single family houses for sale YTD vs. the 2005 average. Measuring the increase in unsold new homes y/y results in a 27.0% increase. Increases by region y/y break down as follows: Northeast, +63.6%; South, +36.5%; West, +26.7%; Midwest, -3.6%. These figures are available in Haver&#39;s USECON database.
The inventory of unsold existing single family homes has risen a slightly faster 33.2% y/y. Year to date that inventory is up 11.2% and the months&#39; supply on the market is 5.9 times the current sales rate, versus 3.7 times in early 2005.
Adjusting to the Next Stage of the Housing Cycle is a recent speech by Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Jack Guynn and it can be found <a href="http://www.frbatlanta.org/invoke.cfm?objectid=AF005747-5056-9F1A-E28D889DADF9B34D&amp;method=display"> here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/SURVEYW/@S5/@S5.HTM">MBA Mortgage Applications (3/16/90=100)</a></th>
<th scope="col">06/16/06</th>
<th scope="col">06/09/06</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Total Market Index</td>
<td>567.6</td>
<td>571.9</td>
<td>-27.9%</td>
<td>708.6</td>
<td>735.1</td>
<td>1,067.9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Purchase</td>
<td>414.8</td>
<td>414.6</td>
<td>-13.5%</td>
<td>470.9</td>
<td>454.5</td>
<td>395.1</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Refinancing</td>
<td>1,466.1</td>
<td>1,499.4</td>
<td>-43.1%</td>
<td>2,092.3</td>
<td>2,366.8</td>
<td>4,981.8</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Japanese Business Confidence Diminishes Ahead of Possible Rate Hike 
by <a href="/comment/Stone.html">Carol Stone</a> June 21, 2006


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060621c.jpg" width="353">
<span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana;
mso-fareast-font-family:&quot;MS Mincho&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;
mso-ansi-language:EN-US;mso-fareast-language:JA;mso-bidi-language:AR-SA">The recently instituted business survey by Japan&#39;s Ministry of Finance showed a distinct slowing in its second quarter results, reported today. The survey is just two years old, so there is obviously not much history. But these results hardly seem surprising with energy prices remaining high, and the Bank of Japan widely expected to engineer an increase in interest rates in the weeks ahead. <img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060621d.jpg" width="353">
The overall &quot;business conditions&quot; gauge dropped from 6.1% (balance, favorable less unfavorable) in Q1 to 1.8% in Q2. It had already retreated from 10.5% in Q4/2005. In the manufacturing sector, business conditions eased this quarter to 1.4% from 3.1% last period. 
In Q2, the responding firms assessed &quot;overseas demand&quot; as stronger than &quot;domestic demand&quot;. The domestic sector was rated positively for Q2 at a net +6.9% of firms, while overseas demand conditions stood at +9.5%. However, for the prior couple of quarters, the opposite was the case, as domestic activity was positive by double-digit amounts and higher than ratings on the foreign sector by 3 to 4 points. <img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060621e.jpg" width="353">
There is a hint in some of the associated detail, particularly sales, that Q2 may be subject to some seasonality; after companies rush to do business in the final quarter of their fiscal year, Q1 in Japan, the next quarter is something of a letdown. With so little history here, it&#39;s premature to make a conclusion about that, but it may help explain the Q2 slowdown. 
Meantime, one other aspect of the survey results really stood out. For the first time in this survey, selling prices had a positive reading. It&#39;s only +0.6%, but even so, it is still another sign that the deflationary period in Japan may have ended.Nonetheless, rising costs took a greater toll on profits, so after a couple of favorable quarters in that item, it dipped back into negative territory. 

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/JAPAN/@J8/@J8.HTM">JAPAN: Large Firms, </a> &nbsp;% Balance</th>
<th scope="col">Q2 2006 </th>
<th scope="col">Q1 2006 </th>
<th scope="col">Q4 2006 </th>
<th scope="col">Q2 2005 </th>
<th scope="col">Q2 2004 </th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Business Conditions </td>
<td>1.8</td>
<td>6.1</td>
<td>10.5</td>
<td>0.9</td>
<td>7.2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Manufacturing </td>
<td>1.4</td>
<td>3.1</td>
<td>10.5</td>
<td>-2.4</td>
<td>8.9</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Domestic Demand </td>
<td>6.9</td>
<td>11.5</td>
<td>14.2</td>
<td>1.4</td>
<td>8.7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Overseas Demand </td>
<td>9.5</td>
<td>8.0</td>
<td>10.2</td>
<td>4.1</td>
<td>12.2</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Selling Prices </td>
<td>0.6</td>
<td>-3.2</td>
<td>-2.2</td>
<td>-3.9</td>
<td>-5.8</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Gold Prices Crater, Oil Off a Bit But Inflation Pressure Up 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> June 21, 2006


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060621g.jpg" width="353">
Gold prices at $567.00 per ounce yesterday were more than 20% lower than their high during May. (Since 1980 there has been a 56% correlation between the level of gold prices and the y/y change in consumer prices.)
In addition, the price of WTI crude oil at $68.94 per barrel is off 8% from the May high. These declines, however, seem more attributable to an easing of political tensions (Iran) than to some bona fide drop in inflation pressure. Measured price inflation is up, industrial commodity price inflation is up, inflation expectations are higher as well.
Consumer prices YTD have risen at a 5.2% annual rate in 2006 versus last year&#39;s 3.4% gain. The 3.1% rate of advance in &quot;core&quot; consumer price inflation is up from 3.3% growth last year, the 3.8% gain in core services prices is up one percentage point from last year and even the soft 1.2% rise in core goods prices is up from 0.5%.
The JoC-ECRI Industrial Metals Prices Index is up 25.2% this year due to higher prices for aluminum (up 35.4%), copper scrap (up 65.5%) and stainless steel scrap (up 17.6%). High grade copper prices have eased quite a bit from the earlier high but remain up 44.1% since year end &#39;05.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060621f.jpg" width="353">
Growth in industrial production is behind these gains. U.S. output gains have wobbled in recent months but factory production is up at a 3.9% annual rate this year, the same rate growth as during all of 2005. Output in the OECD Major Seven countries also is firm at 3.2% y/y through March. That&#39;s comparable to growth during the prior three years but quite the improvement from a range of 0.8% to -3.0% during 2001-2003. During the last ten years there has been a 49% correlation between the level of industrial metals&#39; prices and the y/y change in OECD Big Seven industrial production.
Inflation expectations as measured in the University of Michigan survey slipped from the highs in the June survey but the trend is clearly up. And in the market for Treasury securities, the so called TIPPS spread is down as well, but the trend remains elevated.
The Fed&#39;s Inflation Objective from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis can be found <a href="http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/mt/20060701/cover.pdf"> here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/WEEKLY/@W4/@W4.HTM">Weekly Prices</a></th>
<th scope="col">06/20/06</th>
<th scope="col">12/27/05</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Light Sweet Crude Oil, WTI&nbsp; (per bbl.)</td>
<td>$68.94</td>
<td>$58.16</td>
<td>21.1%</td>
<td>$58.16</td>
<td>$41.78</td>
<td>$32.78</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">U.S. Retail Gasoline (per gallon)</td>
<td>$2.87</td>
<td>$2.20</td>
<td>32.9%</td>
<td>$2.27</td>
<td>$1.85</td>
<td>$1.56</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Gold: Handy &amp; Harmon (per Troy Oz., EOP)</td>
<td>$567.00</td>
<td>$507.40</td>
<td>30.3%</td>
<td>$507.40</td>
<td>$443.40</td>
<td>$416.25</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">High Grade Copper (Comex, /Lb., EOP)</td>
<td>$3.29</td>
<td>$2.28</td>
<td>94.9%</td>
<td>$2.28</td>
<td>$1.54</td>
<td>$1.04</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Stainless Steel Scrap (/ton, EOP)</td>
<td>$2,158</td>
<td>$1,268</td>
<td>30.2%</td>
<td>$1,268</td>
<td>$1,558</td>
<td>$1,265</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

Louise Curley

<html>
<head>
<style>
.odd{
 background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
 background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
	background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
	background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
	background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
	background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
	background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style>
</head>
<body>
 



<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060620f.jpg" width="353">
Italy&#39;s labor force survey for the first quarter shows commendable improvement in the employment situation throughout the country. Total employment rose almost 1% to 22.8 million in the first quarter from the last quarter of 2005 and was 1.2% above the first quarter or 2005. Employment in the North, where more than half the work force is employed, increased 1.2% over a year ago, while employment in the Central Region, where about 20% of the work force is employed, increased 1.9% over a year ago. Even in the depressed South, where almost 30% of the work force is employed, employment increased 0.6% above a year ago.Employment in the North and Central Regions has grown virtually steadily over the past five years while employment in the south has, more or less, stagnated. The first chart contrasts the trends in employment in the North and the South.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060620g.jpg" width="353">
The unemployment rate for the country as a whole was 7.4%, the lowest rate during the period for which data are available (Fourth quarter of 1992 to date). In the North the unemployment rate was 4.1%, in the central region, 6.1% and in the depressed south region, 13.6%. This last figure is also the lowest rate during the period for which data are available and is down from a peak of 19.7% in the second quarter of 1988.
Industrial orders for April rose 6.8% in the month and were 15.5% above a year ago. The big rise took place in export orders which rose 15.6% in the month and were 29.0% above a year ago. The increases in domestic orders were more subdued, 2.2% and 8.7%, respectively. The second chart shows the indexes (2000=100) for domestic and export orders.
Industrial sales declined in April from March, but were 5.7% above April, 2005. Domestic sales were 4.6% and foreign sales, 8.2% above their respective April, 2005 values. 

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">Italy</th>
<th scope="col">Apr&nbsp; 06</th>
<th scope="col">Mar 05</th>
<th scope="col">Apr 05</th>
<th scope="col">M/M</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Industrial Orders (2000=100)&nbsp;</td>
<td>115.0</td>
<td>107.7</td>
<td>99.6</td>
<td>6.78</td>
<td>15.46</td>
<td>102.0</td>
<td>98.9</td>
<td>95.4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Domestic</td>
<td>105.</td>
<td>102.7</td>
<td>96.6</td>
<td>2.24</td>
<td>8.70</td>
<td>98.9</td>
<td>96.8</td>
<td>93.9</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Foreign</td>
<td>137.5</td>
<td>119.0</td>
<td>106.6</td>
<td>15.55</td>
<td>25.99</td>
<td>111.6</td>
<td>103.6</td>
<td>98.7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Industrial Sales (2000=100)&nbsp;</td>
<td>112.8</td>
<td>115.0</td>
<td>106.7</td>
<td>-1.91</td>
<td>5.72</td>
<td>107.6</td>
<td>104.1</td>
<td>101.8</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Domestic</td>
<td>110.9</td>
<td>112.8</td>
<td>106.0</td>
<td>-1.68</td>
<td>4.62</td>
<td>106.4</td>
<td>104.1</td>
<td>101.9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Foreign</td>
<td>117.7</td>
<td>120.8</td>
<td>108.8</td>
<td>-2.57</td>
<td>8.18</td>
<td>110.8</td>
<td>104.1</td>
<td>101.4&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol"></td>
<td>Q1 06</td>
<td>Q4 05</td>
<td>Q1 05</td>
<td>Q/Q</td>
<td>Y/Y</td>
<td>20 05</td>
<td>2004</td>
<td>2003</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Employment (thousands)</td>
<td>22,814</td>
<td>22,598</td>
<td>22,549</td>
<td>0.96</td>
<td>1.18</td>
<td>22,571</td>
<td>22,404</td>
<td>22,240</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">North</td>
<td>11,687</td>
<td>11,601</td>
<td>11,546</td>
<td>0.74</td>
<td>1.22</td>
<td>11,591</td>
<td>11,433</td>
<td>11,364</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Central</td>
<td>4,655</td>
<td>45-,594</td>
<td>4,567</td>
<td>1.32</td>
<td>1.93</td>
<td>4,577</td>
<td>4,539</td>
<td>4,424</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">South</td>
<td>6,472</td>
<td>6,403</td>
<td>6,436</td>
<td>1.08</td>
<td>0.56</td>
<td>6,414</td>
<td>6,431</td>
<td>6,452</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Unemployment Rate</td>
<td>7.4</td>
<td>7.7</td>
<td>7.8</td>
<td>-0.3</td>
<td>-0.4</td>
<td>7.7</td>
<td>8.8</td>
<td>8.4</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">North</td>
<td>4.1</td>
<td>4.3</td>
<td>4.3</td>
<td>-0.2</td>
<td>-0.2</td>
<td>4.2</td>
<td>4.3</td>
<td>4.1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Central</td>
<td>6.1</td>
<td>6.6</td>
<td>6.3</td>
<td>-0.5</td>
<td>-0.2</td>
<td>6.4</td>
<td>6.5</td>
<td>6.9</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">South</td>
<td>13.6</td>
<td>14.0</td>
<td>14.5</td>
<td>-0.4</td>
<td>-0.9</td>
<td>14.3</td>
<td>14.9</td>
<td>16.1</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

Italy's labor force survey for the first quarter shows commendable improvement in the employment situation throughout the country. Total employment rose almost 1% to 22.8 million in the first quarter from the last quarter of 2005 and [...]

Employment Situation in Italy Improves: Foreign New Orders up Sharply

<html>
<head>
<style>
.odd{
 background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
 background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
	background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
	background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
	background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
	background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
	background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style>
</head>

 



<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060620e.jpg" width="353">
The International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS reported that chain store sales were stable last week following a 1.2% surge during the prior week.
Sales so far in June are 0.2% below the May average which fell 0.4% from April. During the last ten years there has been a 47% correlation between the y/y change in chain store sales and the change in nonauto retail sales less gasoline.
The ICSC-UBS retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales (stores open for one year) reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.
The leading indicator of chain store sales from ICSC-UBS recovered another 1.0% (-2.2% y/y), up for the third week after several consecutive weeks of decline.
Retail gasoline prices fell four cents last week to an average $2.87 per gallon and reversed most of the increase during the prior two weeks. In spot market trading gasoline prices fell a nickel yesterday to $1.93 per gallon and were down a bit more than that from last week&#39;s average $1.99.
The just-released 2006 International Energy Outlook from the U.S. Energy Information Administration is available <a href="http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/index.html"> here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/surveyw/@S2/@S2.HTM">ICSC-UBS (SA, 1977=100)</a></th>
<th scope="col">06/17/06</th>
<th scope="col">06/10/06</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Total Weekly Chain Store Sales</td>
<td>473.6</td>
<td>473.6</td>
<td>3.9%</td>
<td>3.6%</td>
<td>4.7%</td>
<td>2.9%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>


</html>

The International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS reported that chain store sales were stable last week following a 1.2% surge during the prior week. Sales so far in June are 0.2% below the May average which fell 0.4% from [...]

Chain Store Sales Stable As Gas Prices Fell

<html>
<head>
<style>
.odd{
 background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
 background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
	background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
	background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
	background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
	background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
	background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style>
</head>
<body>
 



<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060620d.jpg" width="353">
The National Association of Home Builders&#39; (NAHB) reported that the June Composite Housing Market Index at 45 fell another 8.7% from May to the lowest level since April 1995. The figure matched Consensus expectations.
During the last twenty years there has been a 75% correlation between the y/y change in the Composite Index and the change in single family housing starts.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060620c.jpg" width="353">
The sub indexes covering current sales of single family homes (-39.0% y/y) and sales in the next six months (-37.5% y/y) were both down sharply m/m.
An index of the traffic of prospective home buyers dried up and fell 12.1% m/m (-47.3% y/y).
Housing markets around the country again were weak in June with the index for the Northeast off 14.9% (-43.7% y/y), in the Midwest off 13.8% (-51.9% y/y), out West down 1.6% (-31.5% y/y) and in the South off 3.9% (-36.4% y/y).
The NAHB index is a diffusion index based on a survey of builders. Readings above 50 signal that more builders view conditions as good than poor.
Visit the <a href="http://www.nahb.org">National Association of Home Builders</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/SURVEYS/@S4/@S4.HTM">Nat&#39;l Association of Home Builders</a> </th>
<th scope="col">June</th>
<th scope="col">May</th>
<th scope="col">June &#39;05</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Composite Housing Market Index</td>
<td>45</td>
<td>51</td>
<td>70</td>
<td>67</td>
<td>68</td>
<td>64</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

The National Association of Home Builders' (NAHB) reported that the June Composite Housing Market Index at 45 fell another 8.7% from May to the lowest level since April 1995. The figure matched Consensus expectations. During the last [...]

NAHB Housing Market Index Down Again

<html>
<head>
<style>
.odd{
 background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
 background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
	background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
	background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
	background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
	background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
	background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style>
</head>
<body>
 



<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060620a.jpg" width="353">
Housing starts rebounded 5.0% last month to 1.957M units and recovered about all of the April decline that was revised slightly shallower. The rise by far exceeded Consensus expectations for stability at 1.869M starts.
Total housing starts nevertheless remained 13.6% below the peak this past January.
Most of the surprise last month was due to a 19.7% m/m jump in multi family starts which reversed a sharp April decline. For the first five months of this year multi family starts averaged 362M units, equal to the first five months of 2005.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060620b.jpg" width="353">
Single-family starts recovered just a piece of the prior months&#39; weakness and rose 2.1% to 1.586M units after three months of decline. During the first five months of this year single family starts were 1.5% below the first five months of 2005 and in May were 12.6% below the January peak.
By region, single family housing starts were weakest in the Midwest and posted a 15.6% (-25.4% y/y) decline. In the Northeast starts also slipped by 0.7% (-1.5% y/y) but in the South single family starts rose 8.2% (1.3% y/y). Out West starts rose 4.6% (-12.1% y/y).
Building permits fell for the fourth consecutive month. The 2.1% decline lowered permits 13.8% below the peak last September and reflected a 2.1% (-12.2% y/y) drop in permits to build single family homes. Single family permits in May were down 17.5% from the peak last September.
A Supervisor&#39;s Perspective on Mortgage Markets and Mortgage Lending Practices from Federal Reserve Governor Susan Schmidt Bies is available <a href="http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/speeches/2006/20060614/default.htm"> here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">

</table>
<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@E9/@E901/@E90101/@E90101.HTM">Housing Starts (000s, AR)</a> </th>
<th scope="col">May</th>
<th scope="col">April</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Total</td>
<td>1,957</td>
<td>1,863</td>
<td>-3.8%</td>
<td>2,073</td>
<td>1,950</td>
<td>1,854</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Single-family</td>
<td>1,586</td>
<td>1,553</td>
<td>-7.6%</td>
<td>1,719</td>
<td>1,604</td>
<td>1,505</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Multi-family</td>
<td>371</td>
<td>310</td>
<td>17.0%</td>
<td>354</td>
<td>345</td>
<td>349</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Building Permits</td>
<td>1,932</td>
<td>1,973</td>
<td>-8.5%</td>
<td>2,144</td>
<td>2,057</td>
<td>1,8 88</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

Housing starts rebounded 5.0% last month to 1.957M units and recovered about all of the April decline that was revised slightly shallower. The rise by far exceeded Consensus expectations for stability at 1.869M starts. Total housing [...]

Housing Starts Rebound

<html>
<head>
<style>
.odd{
 background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
 background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
	background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
	background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
	background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
	background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
	background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style>
</head>

 



<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060620a.jpg" width="353">
Housing starts rebounded 5.0% last month to 1.957M units and recovered about all of the April decline that was revised slightly shallower. The rise by far exceeded Consensus expectations for stability at 1.869M starts.
Total housing starts nevertheless remained 13.6% below the peak this past January.
Most of the surprise last month was due to a 19.7% m/m jump in multi family starts which reversed a sharp April decline. For the first five months of this year multi family starts averaged 362M units, equal to the first five months of 2005.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060620b.jpg" width="353">
Single-family starts recovered just a piece of the prior months&#39; weakness and rose 2.1% to 1.586M units after three months of decline. During the first five months of this year single family starts were 1.5% below the first five months of 2005 and in May were 12.6% below the January peak.
By region, single family housing starts were weakest in the Midwest and posted a 15.6% (-25.4% y/y) decline. In the Northeast starts also slipped by 0.7% (-1.5% y/y) but in the South single family starts rose 8.2% (1.3% y/y). Out West starts rose 4.6% (-12.1% y/y).
Building permits fell for the fourth consecutive month. The 2.1% decline lowered permits 13.8% below the peak last September and reflected a 2.1% (-12.2% y/y) drop in permits to build single family homes. Single family permits in May were down 17.5% from the peak last September.
A Supervisor&#39;s Perspective on Mortgage Markets and Mortgage Lending Practices from Federal Reserve Governor Susan Schmidt Bies is available <a href="http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/speeches/2006/20060614/default.htm"> here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">

</table>
<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@E9/@E901/@E90101/@E90101.HTM">Housing Starts (000s, AR)</a> </th>
<th scope="col">May</th>
<th scope="col">April</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Total</td>
<td>1,957</td>
<td>1,863</td>
<td>-3.8%</td>
<td>2,073</td>
<td>1,950</td>
<td>1,854</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Single-family</td>
<td>1,586</td>
<td>1,553</td>
<td>-7.6%</td>
<td>1,719</td>
<td>1,604</td>
<td>1,505</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Multi-family</td>
<td>371</td>
<td>310</td>
<td>17.0%</td>
<td>354</td>
<td>345</td>
<td>349</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Building Permits</td>
<td>1,932</td>
<td>1,973</td>
<td>-8.5%</td>
<td>2,144</td>
<td>2,057</td>
<td>1,8 88</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
NAHB Housing Market Index Down Again 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> June 20, 2006


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060620d.jpg" width="353">
The National Association of Home Builders&#39; (NAHB) reported that the June Composite Housing Market Index at 45 fell another 8.7% from May to the lowest level since April 1995. The figure matched Consensus expectations.
During the last twenty years there has been a 75% correlation between the y/y change in the Composite Index and the change in single family housing starts.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060620c.jpg" width="353">
The sub indexes covering current sales of single family homes (-39.0% y/y) and sales in the next six months (-37.5% y/y) were both down sharply m/m.
An index of the traffic of prospective home buyers dried up and fell 12.1% m/m (-47.3% y/y).
Housing markets around the country again were weak in June with the index for the Northeast off 14.9% (-43.7% y/y), in the Midwest off 13.8% (-51.9% y/y), out West down 1.6% (-31.5% y/y) and in the South off 3.9% (-36.4% y/y).
The NAHB index is a diffusion index based on a survey of builders. Readings above 50 signal that more builders view conditions as good than poor.
Visit the <a href="http://www.nahb.org">National Association of Home Builders</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/SURVEYS/@S4/@S4.HTM">Nat&#39;l Association of Home Builders</a> </th>
<th scope="col">June</th>
<th scope="col">May</th>
<th scope="col">June &#39;05</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Composite Housing Market Index</td>
<td>45</td>
<td>51</td>
<td>70</td>
<td>67</td>
<td>68</td>
<td>64</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Chain Store Sales Stable As Gas Prices Fell 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> June 20, 2006


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060620e.jpg" width="353">
The International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS reported that chain store sales were stable last week following a 1.2% surge during the prior week.
Sales so far in June are 0.2% below the May average which fell 0.4% from April. During the last ten years there has been a 47% correlation between the y/y change in chain store sales and the change in nonauto retail sales less gasoline.
The ICSC-UBS retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales (stores open for one year) reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.
The leading indicator of chain store sales from ICSC-UBS recovered another 1.0% (-2.2% y/y), up for the third week after several consecutive weeks of decline.
Retail gasoline prices fell four cents last week to an average $2.87 per gallon and reversed most of the increase during the prior two weeks. In spot market trading gasoline prices fell a nickel yesterday to $1.93 per gallon and were down a bit more than that from last week&#39;s average $1.99.
The just-released 2006 International Energy Outlook from the U.S. Energy Information Administration is available <a href="http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/index.html"> here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/surveyw/@S2/@S2.HTM">ICSC-UBS (SA, 1977=100)</a></th>
<th scope="col">06/17/06</th>
<th scope="col">06/10/06</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Total Weekly Chain Store Sales</td>
<td>473.6</td>
<td>473.6</td>
<td>3.9%</td>
<td>3.6%</td>
<td>4.7%</td>
<td>2.9%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
 Employment Situation in Italy Improves: Foreign New Orders up Sharply  
by <a href="/comment/Curley.html">Louise Curley</a> June 20, 2006


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060620f.jpg" width="353">
Italy&#39;s labor force survey for the first quarter shows commendable improvement in the employment situation throughout the country. Total employment rose almost 1% to 22.8 million in the first quarter from the last quarter of 2005 and was 1.2% above the first quarter or 2005. Employment in the North, where more than half the work force is employed, increased 1.2% over a year ago, while employment in the Central Region, where about 20% of the work force is employed, increased 1.9% over a year ago. Even in the depressed South, where almost 30% of the work force is employed, employment increased 0.6% above a year ago. Employment in the North and Central Regions has grown virtually steadily over the past five years while employment in the south has, more or less, stagnated. The first chart contrasts the trends in employment in the North and the South.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060620g.jpg" width="353">
The unemployment rate for the country as a whole was 7.4%, the lowest rate during the period for which data are available (Fourth quarter of 1992 to date). In the North the unemployment rate was 4.1%, in the central region, 6.1% and in the depressed south region, 13.6%. This last figure is also the lowest rate during the period for which data are available and is down from a peak of 19.7% in the second quarter of 1988.
Industrial orders for April rose 6.8% in the month and were 15.5% above a year ago. The big rise took place in export orders which rose 15.6% in the month and were 29.0% above a year ago. The increases in domestic orders were more subdued, 2.2% and 8.7%, respectively. The second chart shows the indexes (2000=100) for domestic and export orders.
Industrial sales declined in April from March, but were 5.7% above April, 2005. Domestic sales were 4.6% and foreign sales, 8.2% above their respective April, 2005 values. 

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">Italy</th>
<th scope="col">Apr&nbsp; 06</th>
<th scope="col">Mar 05</th>
<th scope="col">Apr 05</th>
<th scope="col">M/M</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Industrial Orders (2000=100)&nbsp;</td>
<td>115.0</td>
<td>107.7</td>
<td>99.6</td>
<td>6.78</td>
<td>15.46</td>
<td>102.0</td>
<td>98.9</td>
<td>95.4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Domestic</td>
<td>105.</td>
<td>102.7</td>
<td>96.6</td>
<td>2.24</td>
<td>8.70</td>
<td>98.9</td>
<td>96.8</td>
<td>93.9</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Foreign</td>
<td>137.5</td>
<td>119.0</td>
<td>106.6</td>
<td>15.55</td>
<td>25.99</td>
<td>111.6</td>
<td>103.6</td>
<td>98.7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Industrial Sales (2000=100)&nbsp;</td>
<td>112.8</td>
<td>115.0</td>
<td>106.7</td>
<td>-1.91</td>
<td>5.72</td>
<td>107.6</td>
<td>104.1</td>
<td>101.8</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Domestic</td>
<td>110.9</td>
<td>112.8</td>
<td>106.0</td>
<td>-1.68</td>
<td>4.62</td>
<td>106.4</td>
<td>104.1</td>
<td>101.9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Foreign</td>
<td>117.7</td>
<td>120.8</td>
<td>108.8</td>
<td>-2.57</td>
<td>8.18</td>
<td>110.8</td>
<td>104.1</td>
<td>101.4&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol"></td>
<td>Q1 06</td>
<td>Q4 05</td>
<td>Q1 05</td>
<td>Q/Q</td>
<td>Y/Y</td>
<td>20 05</td>
<td>2004</td>
<td>2003</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Employment (thousands)</td>
<td>22,814</td>
<td>22,598</td>
<td>22,549</td>
<td>0.96</td>
<td>1.18</td>
<td>22,571</td>
<td>22,404</td>
<td>22,240</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">North</td>
<td>11,687</td>
<td>11,601</td>
<td>11,546</td>
<td>0.74</td>
<td>1.22</td>
<td>11,591</td>
<td>11,433</td>
<td>11,364</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Central</td>
<td>4,655</td>
<td>45-,594</td>
<td>4,567</td>
<td>1.32</td>
<td>1.93</td>
<td>4,577</td>
<td>4,539</td>
<td>4,424</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">South</td>
<td>6,472</td>
<td>6,403</td>
<td>6,436</td>
<td>1.08</td>
<td>0.56</td>
<td>6,414</td>
<td>6,431</td>
<td>6,452</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Unemployment Rate</td>
<td>7.4</td>
<td>7.7</td>
<td>7.8</td>
<td>-0.3</td>
<td>-0.4</td>
<td>7.7</td>
<td>8.8</td>
<td>8.4</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">North</td>
<td>4.1</td>
<td>4.3</td>
<td>4.3</td>
<td>-0.2</td>
<td>-0.2</td>
<td>4.2</td>
<td>4.3</td>
<td>4.1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Central</td>
<td>6.1</td>
<td>6.6</td>
<td>6.3</td>
<td>-0.5</td>
<td>-0.2</td>
<td>6.4</td>
<td>6.5</td>
<td>6.9</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">South</td>
<td>13.6</td>
<td>14.0</td>
<td>14.5</td>
<td>-0.4</td>
<td>-0.9</td>
<td>14.3</td>
<td>14.9</td>
<td>16.1</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>


</html>

Futures market thinks the price of oil will recede significantly over the next six months

Recent pickup in US defense orders could help support overall growth ahead

Cost of transporting crude oil has soared to series high

Market-based inflation expectations have not yet reflected recent surge in oil prices

Global equity markets are fearing a major economic disruption from soaring oil prices

Is recent drop in sentiment signaling softer growth ahead?

With the Iran conflict, geopolitical risk has soared to alarming levels

Soaring AI-related investment in US underpinning strong contribution of business spending to overall growth

AI-related outperformance of IP in Advanced Asia ex Japan

Resilient US economy pushing up Blue Chip 2026 outlook

US and China big leaders in adoption of AI models

Robust US demand for advanced technology products

China's export growth rotating away from the US

More pronounced upward revisions in countries more exposed to AI investment

Stable job openings and hiring rates point to cautious hiring

Global freight costs are on the rise while supply chain pressures are contained

Accelerating positive economic surprises in the G10 are boosting the global economy

Considerably more monetary ease expected from US and UK as Japan tightens

Tighter US immigration enforcement adversely impacting labor force

Economic policy uncertainty, while still elevated, is declining

Gradual disinflation and easier monetary policies across advanced economies

Largest October layoffs since 2003, led by technology

Subdued global shipping costs not yet pointing to supply chain problems

PMIs show still-elevated but slowing US inflation

AI boosting US investment in data centers

Our global data offering is unparalleled in terms of coverage, quality, and organization. We offer 290+ databases from 2500 government and private sources, a wealth of key survey and forecast data covering the world’s economies, and a robust offering of archive databases that drive machine learning for big data applications.

Optimized for precision analytics, our data is seamlessly integrated with Microsoft Office and all leading statistical packages through our DLX® software and platform independent HaverView™ website. We further offer direct database feeds, client server or cloud-based delivery, and RESTful API.


Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

Contact us

Service Health

A premier time series data platform for the global strategy, research, and quant communities. 

London

Singapore

Tokyo

New York

Economy in Brief

Viewpoints

Contact Us

Our Data

Our Products

What We Do

Our Authors

About Us

Data News

Featured Data Additions

Resources

Release Calendars

Training Center

Webinars

Newsletters

Download Software

For Clients

Live Updates

Winnie Tapasanun

260422A17.jpg

260422B17.jpg

Mortgage applications rose 7.9% w/w (29.9% y/y) in the week ending April 17 following a 1.8% rebound in the week ending April 10, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey. The latest reading was the second successive w/w gain and the largest since the February 27 week, lifting the index to 303.3, its highest level since the March 20 week. Applications for loans to purchase a house jumped 10.1% (14.5% y/y) in the April 17 week, the biggest w/w increase since the January 9 week, after a 1.0% decline in the previous week. Applications for loan refinancing rose 5.8% (51.9% y/y) in the April 17 week following a 5.1% rebound in the April 10 week.

The effective interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate loan fell 7bps to 6.53% in the week ending April 17 from 6.60% in the week ending April 10; it was above a low of 6.29% in the week of September 20, 2024 but below a peak of 8.12% in the week of October 20, 2023. The rate on 15-year fixed-rate mortgages dropped 12bps to 5.92% in the April 17 week from 6.04% in the previous week; it was up from a low of 5.60% in the week of September 20, 2024 but down from a high of 7.44% in the week of October 27, 2023. The rate on 30-year jumbo loans declined 5bps to 6.56% in the April 17 week from 6.61% in the prior week; it was above its most recent low of 6.25% in the February 27 week but below a high of 7.99% in the week of October 27, 2023. These three rates hit their lowest levels since the March 13 week. Meanwhile, the rate on a 5-year ARM edged up to 5.81% in the April 17 week, the first w/w increase in four weeks, from 5.80% in the previous week (the lowest since the March 6 week); it was above its most recent low of 5.38% in the February 20 week but below a high of 7.31% in the week of October 27, 2023.

The share of applications for refinancing an existing loan fell to 44.2% of total applications in the week ending April 17—the sixth w/w fall in seven weeks and the lowest level since the week of August 1, 2025—after rising to 45.5% in the week ending April 10; those numbers remained below a peak of 61.9% in the January 16 week. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity declined to a three-week-low 8.0% in the April 17 week from 8.4% in the prior week; it was below a peak of 12.9% in the week of September 12, 2025 but above a low of 4.7% in the week of January 3, 2025.

The average size of a mortgage loan, up for the third consecutive week, rose 1.2% w/w (3.4% y/y) to $399,900 in the April 17 week, the highest level since the March 13 week, after a 1.3% increase to $395,000 in the April 10 week. The average size of a purchase loan eased 0.1% (+3.6% y/y) to $455,600 in the April 17 week, the fourth w/w decline in five weeks, following a 1.8% rebound to $456,100 in the prior week. The average size of a loan to refinance a mortgage climbed 2.4% (10.7% y/y) to $329,500 in the April 17 week after a 1.5% rise to $321,800 in the previous week, marking the third successive w/w increase and the highest level since the March 20 week.

The Mortgage Bankers Association Survey covers 75% of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications and has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks and thrifts. The base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100. The figures for weekly mortgage applications and interest rates are available in Haver’s **SURVEYS** database.

- Purchase applications +10.1% w/w, biggest increase since the Jan. 9 week; refinancing loan applications +5.8% w/w, second consecutive rise.
- Effective interest rate on 30-year fixed loans down 7bps to 6.53%, a five-week low.
- Average loan size up for the third straight week, highest level since the March 13 week.

U.S. Mortgage Applications Up 7.9% in the April 17 Week, Largest Gain Since Late February

Robert Brusca

260422E.jpg

The National Bank of Belgium consumer survey for April registered -9, compared to a reading of -6 in March and +1 in February. Since the war in the Middle East began, confidence readings have declined steadily. However, the April consumer confidence reading of -9 still shows improvement from its level of -14 recorded 2 months ago. The index has a 37.8 percentile standing based on data back to 1991, which places it below its historic median: the median ranking occurs at a percentile standing of 50.

The responses to the survey are mixed and some of them are quite negative; however, a few also are quite upbeat. For now, the main message is that the survey is mixed. While most confidence readings tend to the weak side, there are a few that are actually quite encouraging.

**Economic Situation**
A survey on the economic situation shows improvement for the next 12 months; its April reading rose to -43 in April from -45 in March. However, with the onset of war, the March reading had fallen to -45 from -25 in February, so the month-to-month uptick in April is really small potatoes. The 12-month change in the outlook for the economic situation over the next 12 months is a tick better in April 2026 than it was in April 2025. Continuing the back and forth on its “bad but not that bad” swing, the queue reading of the index on data back to 1991 has only a 1.8 percentile standing, marking it as weaker than its current level less than 2% of the time and ending the back-and-forth on whether the reading is poor or not. It is very weak.

The assessment of the economic situation over the last 12 months deteriorated to -57 in April from -42 in March, and it also worsened compared to its level of a year ago. In addition, its standing is in the bottom 8% of its historic queue data.

**Prices**
Price trends give us some of the clearest and most negative views. Prices over the next 12 months improved slightly from March, moving to a reading of 50 in April from 53 in March. Still, the April reading of 50 is higher than its reading of 35 one year ago, and its standing is in the top 1% of all observations on data back to 1991. Those are dismal statistics. Price trends for the last 12 months are shown to have been slightly more stable but still with readings that had been historically worse, only about 15% of the time, marking the past inflation environment as having been poor as well.

**Unemployment**
The consumers’ unemployment forecast went up in April to a reading of +6 from -3 in March; it had deteriorated to -3 in March from -11 in February. A rising unemployment response reflects deterioration. People are assessing the possibility of unemployment as getting higher, although at +6 the April reading is substantially reduced compared to what it was a year ago at +21. The standing for the unemployment forecast is only in its 16.7 percentile of its historic queue of data, meaning that the likelihood of unemployment has been lower than this, only about 16% to 17% of the time.

**Major Household Purchases**
If you look at the environment to make major household purchases, the responses of consumers become slightly more convoluted since the question as to whether it's favorable to buy at present deteriorated sharply in April to -44 from -23 in March; that was a sharp deterioration from -20 a year ago. Ranking the current -44 reading on data back to 1991, this is the weakest or the worst favorability for spending on this timeline. So that particular sequence of data doesn't fit really well with the unemployment responses, although being unemployed and finding it's a favorable time to buy goods are different things; both do speak to the economic environment which we can see is somewhat touch and go.

The outlook for making major purchases over the next 12 months deteriorated slightly over the last few months, with a reading of -19 compared to -17 a year ago. That current reading has a 24.3 percentile standing, placing it in the lower quartile of its historic queue of data. This underlines that the spending environment has been poor throughout the last year compared to historic experience since the 1990s.

**The Financial Situation of Households**
The financial situation of households over the next 12 months deteriorated slightly in April to -5 from -3, and it had deteriorated in March to -3 from -2 in February. Even so, the April reading of  5 was stronger than -8 recorded one year ago. Still, if we let the ranking on data back to 1991 be the arbiter of whether the assessment of conditions is weak, the 10.6 percentile standing for the financial situation ahead and the 12.2 percentile standing for the financial situation of households over the last 12 months both indicate decisive weakness.

**The Current Situation**
The next reading is a bit of a surprise given the drumbeat of weakness that we see from the data above. The current situation appraisal did backtrack in April to 21 from 25 in March, but it's only slightly weaker than a reading of 22 in February. The April 2026 reading of 21 is slightly weaker than a reading of 25 one year ago. However, the April reading has a percentile standing on data back to 1991 at its 74.5 percentile, putting it right at the border of its top 25th percentile.

So, the current situation is appraised as a top 25-percentile standing, but the environment for making purchases over the next 12 months has a lower 24-percentile standing; and the current situation has a favorability for buying which is the worst that we've seen in the entire period. However, expectations of unemployment remain low. To round out this situation, the favorability to save over the next 12 months has a ranking in its 86-percentile, making it a top 15-percentile reading. The favorability to save at present has a 58-percentile standing, placing it above its historic median and slightly better than average. What we have are crosscurrents.

On balance, you see the consumers view their situation as having a lot of crosscurrents. In terms of the thing they fear the most, unemployment conditions are not considered to be at risk and the economic situation is appraised to be in the upper tier of where it has been since the 1990s even though the favorability of spending is the worst experience for consumers on that same timeline. But the inflation readings are unambiguously bad—and worsening.

It would appear from these crosscurrents that the Belgian consumer is ripe for being pushed one way or the other if events were to markedly either improve or to deteriorate.

260422.jpg

Belgium

National Bank of Belgium Consumer Survey for April

Sandy Batten

260421V50.jpg

260421W50.jpg

Total retail sales rose a larger-than-expected 1.7% m/m (+4.0% y/y) in March following an upwardly revised 0.7% m/m gain in February (previously +0.6% m/m) in February, according to data from the U.S. Census Bureau. The Action Economics Forecast Survey looked for a 1.4% m/m increase. Excluding autos, other sales soared 1.9% m/m (+5.5% y/y) in March after an upwardly revised 0.7% monthly gain in February (previously +0.5% m/m). The Action Economics Forecast Survey looked for a 1.4% m/m increase in sales excluding autos. The March increase in total sales was the largest monthly increase since last March while the March jump in ex-auto sales was the largest monthly gain since January 2023.

As expected, a 15.5% m/m surge in sales at gasoline stations, largely reflecting a previously reported 21.2% m/m jump in retail gasoline prices, accounted for much of the monthly increase in both overall and ex-auto sales in March. However, sales were solid even without gasoline sales. Total sales excluding gasoline rose 0.6% in March versus a 0.7% monthly gain in February. Sales excluding both autos and gasoline increased 0.6% m/m in March, the same rise as in February. Forecasters expected only a 0.2% m/m increase in sales ex both autos and gasoline.

The control group of sales (total sales excluding food services, autos, gasoline and building materials that the BEA uses to construct PCE in the national accounts) posted another solid increase in March, rising 0.7% m/m following an upwardly revised 0.6% monthly increase in February (previously +0.5% m/m). For all of Q1, control group sales were up 1.2% q/q, up from a 0.7% quarterly gain in Q4. This points to a somewhat surprising pickup in household spending growth when Q1 GDP is reported on April 30. Many analysts had feared that the sharp rise in gasoline prices would put significant stress on household finances and thereby slow spending. A possible explanation for the recent resilience of sales is larger income tax refunds this year owing to the OBBBA which reduced taxes during last year while the withholding tables were not adjusted until this year (resulting in more over-withholding last year).

Sales across major sectors generally posted solid gains in March. Auto sales rose 0.5% m/m on top of a 1.0% m/m increase in February. Furniture and appliance sales jumped 1.6%, the third consecutive monthly gain and the largest since December 2024. General merchandise store sales jumped 1.0% m/m, their largest monthly gain since April 2023. Nonstore retail sales increased 1.0% m/m in March, their third consecutive month with an increase of 1% or more. Building material and garden supply store sales rose 0.7% m/m in March, their fifth consecutive monthly increase. Sales at food and beverage stores increased 0.7% m/m in March, their first monthly gain in three months. By contrast, clothing sales were unchanged following a 2.8% monthly jump in February. Sales at sporting goods, book and music stores were also unchanged in March after a 0.7% monthly rise in February. Eating out sales edged up 0.1% m/m in March following a 0.5% m/m increase in February. The only major category posting a monthly decline in March was “miscellaneous” sales which fell 0.9% m/m but this was after 2.2% m/m gains in both January and February.

Retail sales data can be found in Haver’s **USECON** database. The expectations figures are from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in **AS1REPNA**.

260421X50.jpg

260421Y50.jpg

- Total sales jumped 1.7% m/m in March with small upward revisions to January and February.
- Gasoline sales surged 15.5% m/m in March, but even excluding that increase, the remainder of retail sales rose 0.6% m/m.
- Excluding autos, sales soared 1.9% m/m in March with small upward revisions to January and February.
- Sales of the retail control group that is used to construct PCE rose 0.7% m/m in March and 1.2% q/q for all of Q1.

U.S. Retail Sales Jumped in March only Partly Due to Surging Gasoline Prices

260421F.jpg

260421G.jpg

The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking measure of home sales based on contract signings, rose 1.5% m/m to 73.7 in March following an upwardly revised 2.5% gain in February (+1.8% initially) and a 1.0% decline in January (unrevised), according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). March marked the second straight m/m rise and the highest index level since November (77.2). The year-on-year rate was -1.1% in March, the fourth consecutive negative y/y reading, compared to -0.1% in February and -2.1% in March 2025. The index had fallen 41.1% since its October 2021 high of 125.1.

The m/m rise in March pending home sales coincided with an increase in the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate to a three-month-high 6.18% in March after a 6-bps decline to 6.05% in February. These rates, while below a peak of 7.62% in October 2023, had remained above a low of 5.22% in August 2022 and more than double a record-low 2.68% in December 2020.

By region, March pending home sales showed a mixed performance. Sales in the Northeast rebounded 4.4% (-6.5% y/y) in March, the first m/m increase since November, after a 2.6% decrease in February. Sales in the South rose 3.9% (2.3% y/y) following a 3.5% February rise and two successive m/m declines. Sales in the West dropped 2.6% (-1.7% y/y) after a 0.9% February increase, and sales in the Midwest fell 1.3% (-3.1% y/y) after a 5.5% February gain; both regions declined m/m for the first time since December.

The pending home sales index measures sales at the time the contract for the purchase of an existing home is signed, similar to the Census Bureau's new home sales data. In contrast, the National Association of Realtors' existing home sales data are recorded when the sale is closed, which is usually a couple of months after the sales contract has been signed. In developing the pending home sales index, the NAR found that the level of monthly sales contract activity leads the level of closed existing home sales by about two months.

The series dates back to 2001 and are available in Haver's **PREALTOR** database. Weekly mortgage interest rates from the Mortgage Bankers Association can be found in the **WEEKLY** database.

- PHSI +1.5% m/m (-1.1% y/y) to 73.7 in Mar., highest level since Nov.
- Home sales m/m up in the Northeast (+4.4%) and South (+3.9%); down in the Midwest (-1.3%) and West (-2.6%).
- Home sales y/y down in the Northeast (-6.5%), Midwest (-3.1%), and West (-1.7%); up in the South (+2.3%).

U.S. Pending Home Sales Up for Second Consecutive Month in March

260421E.jpg

The overarching survey indicator for March stepped up despite enhanced global challenges. The March headline index rose to 99.3 from 98 in both January and February.

The March level of the headline compares to a 12-month average of 97.2. Nearly all the components in March are above their 12-month averages. The exception is the output change, which is substantially weaker than its 12-month average. Expected production, at 3.1 in March, is just a tick below its 12 month average of 3.2. Finally, expected employment in March is tied with its 12-month average.

In addition, only 3 readings weaker month-to-month in March were output change, expected production, and expected employment.

On the month, output change is a weak reading, falling by 3.5 points month-to-month; it may be the clearest example of the report showing weakness ahead, affected by upcoming global issues related to the war and rising oil and energy prices.

In addition to output change, expected production slipped to 3.1 in March from 4.8 in February. There was also a step back in expected employment, a modest one to 0.8 in March from 1.0 in February.

But order books showed a 10.2 reading in March, up from 5.6 in February. Changes in new foreign orders and total orders both showed more strength in March than in February, with foreign orders at 5.5 in March compared to 5.2 in February. The change in total orders, at 10.2 in March, was much stronger than 5.6 in February. Inventories registered 0.6 in March, up from -0.3 in February.

However, capacity space is being used up as capacity use rose to 77.0 in March from 76.6 in February.

The employment metric at 2.6 in March was much stronger than its zero reading in February.

On balance, the components indicate the sector is moving ahead as the headline gain suggests in March. But the major question mark is probably the strength in orders—which we take to be forward-looking compared to the setback in output change.

The index in March has a 64.1 percentile standing. Only three components in March ranked below their respective 50% marks (below their medians). The strongest readings generated standings in the 90th and mid-80th-percentile levels. These included finished inventories, the change in total orders, and order books. The lagging components, below their median values, were output change, expected production, and capacity utilization.

The French industrial readings are surprising for their resilience.

Economy in Brief

Jump to:

Gold Prices Crater, Oil Off a Bit But Inflation Pressure Up

Mortgage Applications Dip, # of Unsold Homes Soar

Mortgage Applications Dip, # of Unsold Homes Soar

Employment Situation in Italy Improves: Foreign New Orders up Sharply

Chain Store Sales Stable As Gas Prices Fell

NAHB Housing Market Index Down Again

Housing Starts Rebound

Housing Starts Rebound